Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Does he have an answer ?

Yes, and it will be ridiculously ambitious, and it will likely be achieved.

If the fossil fuel industry hated/feared Elon yesterday, today those feelings are x100. Fascinating that he loves to broadcast his plans, like he feeds on the shockwaves.

 

[RobStark]

. . .
Elon: "To some degree battery day will kind of be master plan part three. Which will be how do we get from tens of GWh per year to multiple TWh per year. That's a pretty giant scale increase. That's an increase of roughly 100x. "
Elon: ... "How do we get to like 2TWh per year"
Drew?: "That's the way you have to think about it because that's what you need to do."
Elon: "Yeah exactly. In order to really make a fundamental shift in the world's energy usage, and really transform things to a sustainable energy future, if you're not in the TWh range its a nice news story but its not fundamentally changing the energy equation"

That does not sound like they are planing to produce 1 or 2 TWh of batteries, that sounds like they see the need for such amount of battery storage. The question remains:
Elon: ... "How do we get to like 2TWh per year?"
Does he have an answer ?[/QUOTE]

He said he will give a concrete plan at the show & tell battery investor day in Spring 2020

 

[StealthP3D]

Head scratcher to me... why would Model X need a refresher? It’s such a unique car, way way ahead of anything you can buy today.

The X doesn't need a "refresher". Musk says no such plan is in the works for X or S. It just got updated with new tech and a longer range.

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon: ... "How do we get to like 2TWh per year?"
Does he have an answer ?

He said he will give a concrete plan at the show & tell battery investor day in Spring 2020

Musk knows not to ask a question on a conference call that he doesn't already know the answer to.

 

[Sancho]

If we look back just 3 months, the success of Q2 is astonishing. When the Q1 ER hit, Tesla looked like it might have a serious cash crunch and a real demand problem. To counter this perception, Musk offered 4 pieces of guidance, all of which seemed questionable at the time:

1. 90-100k deliveries in Q2
2. Cash flow positive in Q2
3. Less GAAP sequential loss in Q2
4. 360-400k deliveries for year

All the info on Q2 is now in, and what happened? Everything Musk guided came to pass (or, as to 4, reiterated, and no longer looking dubious).

Musk’s credibility has been greatly boosted by this quarter’s performance.

And rhe demand and cash burn issues have been completely debunked.

I’m having trouble understanding tonight the gloom thesis. Perhaps part of the gloom is because the biggest positive news about the quarter (95k deliveries) was announced weeks ago, and now people are more focused on GAAP losses. Or perhaps it’s just that the SP is down 10% tonight, when hopes were for a boost. But c’mon peeps, short term moves of the SP are horribly manipulated. Give it a few weeks, and there is likely to be a different direction. Not investment advice!

 

[RobStark]

The X doesn't need a "refresher". Musk says no such plan is in the works for X or S. It just got updated with new tech and a longer range.

Customers will tell Tesla when Model X needs a refresher by voting with their dollars.

Model S needs a refresher.

 

[AudubonB]

One of the frustrating things about living in two homes 3,600 miles apart is that the something that you really need always seems to be Over There.
This evening’s example is my material covering world energy data. So: can anyone tell me what 2TWh looks like as a function of US’s or Europe’s gas/coal/nuke electric production plants? 10%? 50%? 200%?
The units are, of course, all kaflooey. One is in production per year of storage capacity, the other is in consumable production.

 

[RobStark]

Self-driving parking gets regulatory nod in Germany

 

[Do It]

• Q2 deliveries: 95,356
• Q2 production: 87,048
• FCF: $613,929,000
• FCF/delivery: $6,438

Now that we have a FCF/vehicle sold number, I can calculate what FCF would be if this was a more usual quarter. Tesla being a growing company should *on average* have at least 1 week more production than deliveries. Let’s say 7,000 - 14,000 deliveries.

If Tesla kept the same FCF/deliveries ratio and only sold 80,000 cars. FCF = $515,000,000

If Tesla kept the same FCF/deliveries ratio and only sold 73,000 cars. FCF = $470,000,000

The math seems wrong to me. If there was only one car sold, your math would show 6,438 CFC which clearly is not right.

 

[RobStark]

One of the frustrating things about living in two homes 3,600 miles apart is that the something that you really need always seems to be Over There.
This evening’s example is my material covering world energy data. So: can anyone tell me what 2TWh looks like as a function of US’s or Europe’s gas/coal/nuke electric production plants? 10%? 50%? 200%?
The units are, of course, all kaflooey. One is in production per year of storage capacity, the other is in consumable production.

Paging @jhm

 

[Antares Nebula]

Futures are holding up in spite of:

North Korea fires missiles into sea, fresh nuclear talks in doubt - Reuters

 

[StealthP3D]

If we look back just 3 months, the success of Q2 is astonishing. When the Q1 ER hit, Tesla looked like it might have a serious cash crunch and a real demand problem. To counter this perception, Musk offered 4 pieces of guidance, all of which seemed questionable at the time:

1. 90-100k deliveries in Q2
2. Cash flow positive in Q2
3. Less GAAP sequential loss in Q2
4. 360-400k deliveries for year

All the info on Q2 is now in, and what happened? Everything Musk guided came to pass (or, as to 4, reiterated, and no longer looking dubious).

Musk’s credibility has been greatly boosted by this quarter’s performance.

Yes, and don't underestimate the benefit of the extra credibility this bestows on Musk. When he puts his mind to something, he is someone to be taken very seriously.

I’m having trouble understanding tonight the gloom thesis.

I see two things at work here:

1) Newbie investors who don't understand the markets and fixate on day to day moves like a beginning juggler fixating on the objects he's juggling.

2) People who want to bring a mood of doom and gloom to harm Tesla.

It was a very solid quarter and forward guidance was positive, pointing to further cost efficiencies even while rapidly growing.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but 10% limit down tomorrow if ≤ 238.39.

(90% x 264.88)

Uptick rule should be in effect thru Friday.

 

[StealthP3D]

Futures are holding up in spite of:

North Korea fires missiles into sea, fresh nuclear talks in doubt - Reuters

See what they did there? They managed to use the word "nuclear" in the same sentence about Korean missles.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I think that number is just too big. It paralyzes people's brain.

For me. I don't want to think about it because my gut is yelling :"Where will the money come from?"

That's really not that big of a number. Now if Tesla was planning something like

3↑↑↑↑3 Wh*

Then yeah, brain freeze for sure!

*Knuth's up-arrow notation - Wikipedia

 

[dha]

After hours trading volume was *exceptionally light* today for an earnings event. Past ERs have had AH volume on par with the average daily volume of regular hours trading. Interested to see tomorrow's action. Another factor to keep in mind is that we are already at near-record levels of short interest.

 

[guidooo]

So: can anyone tell me what 2TWh looks like as a function of US’s or Europe’s gas/coal/nuke electric production plants? 10%? 50%? 200%?

The pdf can be found here:
EU energy in figures - Publications Office of the EU

The units are, of course, all kaflooey. One is in production per year of storage capacity, the other is in consumable production.

Guess 2TWh cycling 100% each day equals something like 700 TWh a year in used storage capacity. Installing 2 TWh each year, implies with stated cycling that after 4 years 10% of yearly electricity production could be drawn from those batteries.

 

[Remus]

After hours trading volume was *exceptionally light* today for an earnings event. Past ERs have had AH volume on par with the average daily volume of regular hours trading. Interested to see tomorrow's action. Another factor to keep in mind is that we are already at near-record levels of short interest.

This makes the next several weeks very interesting. On one hand loads of shares shorted after Elon's cash burn comments where they believe bankruptcy is coming. Now with record cash and positive FCF their probably realize they need to wait for a really long time.

On the other hand there are many disappointed longs as getting rich fast doesn't look likely either.

Hmm, probably results in orderly retreat of shorts?

 

[Leo9]

The story has materially changed. In H2 2018, Tesla appeared to be in a fantastic position, but not anymore. We have gone from "profit every quarter" to posting a $1.1B GAAP loss in H1 2019 in less than 9 months.
To be honest, every other CEO would have been fired after such a miss. Obviously, Elon should not be fired, but it's hard to ignore the reality.
Now we're looking at "break even" in Q3, but I have my doubts.
Terawatt is just the buzzword of this ER, just like autonomy and the alien dreadhnought.
I expect a stronger second half of course, but with H1 2020 looking "tough", even according to Elon, I see no reason to be long TSLA here.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Customers will tell Tesla when Model X needs a refresher by voting with their dollars.

Model S needs a refresher.

Not so sure. At least near me, I’m seeing Raven S’s flying off the shelves. From over a hundred a couple weeks ago to 19 two days ago to 0 right now. Not seeing any indicator of slowing S demand.