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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Aerodynamic like the Bollinger?:D

Yeah, aerodynamic like the Bollinger truck in vacuum:

Bollinger-custom-electric-truck-hero.jpg
 
This is my only fear. Tesla so far has made only "urban cruisers" which can't take any real abuse. A proper pickup needs to be able to be abused. E.g. you might scratch or dent it, but you're not going to break a trim clip or drive a large rock into the battery pack. Current design approaches just don't suffice.

I can’t seem to find the source now, but I read an interview with Rivian CEO saying they have done a drop test of the Rivian BEV pickup from four feet onto a pointy boulder, and it survived without damage. So it seems doable, and this level of durability seems to exceed that of ICE pickups that have lots of exposed stuff. I have a Jeep that has aftermarket underbody armoring, seems like a BEV skateboard would be easier to armor up.
 
I feel this is a trick question. ‘Investors’ I thought already know what’s happening and going to happen with regards to Tesla, but they don’t control the SP.

I feel like ‘investors’ is synonymous with ‘the people’, the latter also is not in control of what they think or have been told.
My belief is that "investors" do control the share price to a large extent, by their wallets. I tend to give far less control/credit to the Shorts.
 
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There's that steady climb after the usual stock beating.
Anticipating some FUD, this is so staged. They don't usually let it linger rising much longer.

Seems to be bucking the trend once again today, someone's accumulating.

Was the same this time last year, then it was revealed to be the Saudis. The rest is, well, history :confused:
 
I can’t seem to find the source now, but I read an interview with Rivian CEO saying they have done a drop test of the Rivian BEV pickup from four feet onto a pointy boulder, and it survived without damage. So it seems doable, and this level of durability seems to exceed that of ICE pickups that have lots of exposed stuff. I have a Jeep that has aftermarket underbody armoring, seems like a BEV skateboard would be easier to armor up.

That test, if accurate, isn't as impressive as it sounds. Dropping 4 ft, with an initial downward speed of 0mph gives an end speed of ~11mph. The real test would be what happens if you hit that pointy boulder at normal driving speeds(20-30 mph, say). Vertical falling speeds aren't ever going to be much unless you drive off the side of a cliff. Lateral speeds are what will damage things.
 
They've basically copied the classic Land Rover Defender style:

x51lddc948gyw_1.jpg.pagespeed.ic.3HoiW1QM84.jpg

Yeah, and I love the utilitarian, off-road design language of both of them.

Wouldn't want to be hit by those barely street legal grill guards though, I suppose at NCAP testing they don't award any negative stars for pedestrian protection? They really should.
 
Automotive battery revenue obviously grew because Tesla built 87k cars instead of 53k.
Battery operating profit did not improve, despite the higher volume. They don't say it outright, but this almost certainly means they again lost money on their Tesla business. Fiscal Q1 last year was a total disaster, which they attributed to ramp-up problems (aka manufacturing hell).


A few notes from the Panasonic call (which was hard to follow as the interpreter didn't properly split up Q from A)

  • Tesla is over 20% of Automotive sales (so over $700m). The sales increase is becoming more sizeable.
  • The majority of the Yen10bn ($90m) Q1 Automotive operating profit loss is due to the Tesla business. But automotive equipment was the driver of yoy decrease.
  • The GF1 production capacity is now up to 28GWH from 24Gwh at the end of March. The full capacity is 35GWh . There was a cost associated with capacity ramp up and they need to address the costs they need to bear. They are seeing profit coming from expanded sales in US but has been cancelled by lower S&X sales yoy - resulting in overall flat growth yoy ( i think this meant flat profit yoy in the Tesla business).
  • In 2H they expect the loss associated with Tesla business to be improved or addressed.
  • There were several questions asking whether Panasonic was negotiating pricing with Tesla - this bit wasn't clear, but I think Panasonic said no comment.

I think now would be a great time for Tesla to purchase Panasonic's cylindrical battery business. I think its very clear to Panasonic by now that this is no longer a long term growth business as Tesla is refusing to give them contracts for expansion beyond the initial 35GWh. Panasonic also have no other customers for cylindrical batteries. A disposal is an easy way for Panasonic to "address" the Tesla operating losses, while for Tesla it will make it much easier to use Panasonic's GF1 staff to ramp up Tesla's in-house cell production, reduce the risk of IP disputes and make it easier to upgrade Panasonic's equipment with Tesla's cell design improvements when they are ready. Panasonic's whole business is obviously under a lot of pressure operationally and market cap is now just $20bn, I think Tesla could get a good deal on the battery business right now, maybe a combination of cash and stock. Panasonic did note on the call that they have "further business portfolio reform going on, but its not something they are allowed to disclose now" - really this could refer to anything, but I'm hopeful its a Tesla deal.
 
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While that would look cool, it would increase cost and time of deployment (by requiring a more extensive foundation). I would like to see a solar roof option, panels that would bolt onto existing mounting flanges and create a sloping roof (shed style) which would shade the containers and reducing cooling needs while adding to the electrical generation. This would also reduce future painting of the steel containers by keeping them in the shade and keeping the rain off them.
Or you could just tile them...
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: wipster
This is my only fear. Tesla so far has made only "urban cruisers" which can't take any real abuse. A proper pickup needs to be able to be abused. E.g. you might scratch or dent it, but you're not going to break a trim clip or drive a large rock into the battery pack. Current design approaches just don't suffice.
Maybe, maybe not. 75% of pickups never leave the pavement. It depends on how much of the marketing kool-aide that 75% has really gulped down.

That said, Elon is big about beating the competition. He could have just made the P3D fast but he wanted it to be able to beat an M3 around a track (mission accomplished). I assume he will want the same bragging rights against ICE pickups as well.

Yeah, and I love the utilitarian, off-road design language of both of them.

Wouldn't want to be hit by those barely street legal grill guards though, I suppose at NCAP testing they don't award any negative stars for pedestrian protection? They really should.
I wish insurance companies and the legal system would penalize people more for driving vehicles that are more dangerous to other drivers/pedestrians.