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isn't Tesla also involved in sourcing raw materials like lithium?

I have seen a few articles over the last couple years with these agreements and none of them mention Panasonic. Here are some examples from Electrek:

Outline - Read & annotate without distractions

Outline - Read & annotate without distractions
Lot's of rumors and speculation, including getting into mining (maybe after insurance), but Panasonic has the supply agreements for the chemical raw materials that have been and currently are used to produce cells at GF-1. Tesla may have an agreement for the Al in the cans.
 
Lot's of rumors and speculation, including getting into mining (maybe after insurance), but Panasonic has the supply agreements for the chemical raw materials that have been and currently are used to produce cells at GF-1. Tesla may have an agreement for the Al in the cans.

Those "rumors and speculation" were both firm agreements reported in regulatory filings by the lithium companies.

Any deal to buy the GF1 business would clearly need to include transfer of Panasonic's current supply arrangements. Panasonic's not exactly going to have much need of tonnes of Tesla specification cathode material after it sells its Tesla business.
 
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Tesla have $6bn liquidity on balance sheet, strong free cash flow, a huge market cap and easy access to capital. As i said though, i'd expect any acquisition to be a mix of cash and equity. .

Tesla's working capital is only ~$450 million; and, in less than four months, it's going to need $565 million to repay the SCTY convertible. What do you suppose that Panasonic would do with the equity you are expecting they would accept? The "strong" cash flow in 1H19 was $224 million of which $164 million came from Inventory write-downs and Loss on Disposal of Fixed Asssets.


The agreement was never about Panasonic financing Tesla's equipment. Tesla would have gone to a bank or a capital lease company for that. It was about Panasonic's cell expertise and Panasonic installing its own cell equipment in Tesla's factory. The agreements are just the complicated legal framework they decided was best to describe the supply relationship and to allow Panasonic to essentially rent space in Tesla's factory. The legal details of what's rented/owned and accounting treatment etc is not really relevant to this basic goal.

I never alleged it was only about Panasonic's equipment. Panasonic did ok on the 18650 Supply Agreement and saw Tesla and GF-1 as a profitable opportunity. So far it hasn't worked out for Panasonic.

If Tesla could have gone to a bank or capital lease company in 2014 it would have, but the junk bond rating on its debt coupled with all of Tesla's other valuable assets pledged to the ABL creditors made the Panasonic financing arrangement the most viable option.

How much rent has Tesla received from Panasonic at GF-1? at GF-2?
 
When Tesla did the secondary to raise cash in Q1(or was it early Q2?), I called out here that my belief was that they were raising the money to buy out Panasonic. Raising the money for any other reason didn't really seem to make sense unless they were very worried about returning to positive FCF in Q2 and going forward.

The cash raise could have been to shore up the balance sheet but idk, it didn't seem absolutely necessary especially when at that time, they were stating they were confident about returning to positive FCF in Q2. Especially considering the fact that they were raising the money in the position of a weak share price. They could have easily waited for Q2 for a better stock price to do the secondary if it was just about shoring up the balance sheet
I don’t see it. They need 35GWh from sparks. Next boost in cells needed for Shanghai and then Europe. If Tesla waits this out a year they can buy Panasonic out for nothing. Panasonic hasn’t driven productivity and production as fast as Tesla needs and CATL and LG are likely going to be future partners. I base that on the Indonesian partnership, which seems to be where the terawatt lithium source is coming from.
 
For those of you who think the Tesla FUD will stop when [fill in your reason here], if Apple is any guide then it never will. Here's Apple fanboy Daniel Eran Dilger calling out the FUDsters using the results from this quarter. Won't make any difference though. It never has.
Editorial: Apple's Q319 earnings destroy a mountain of fake data and false reporting

John Gruber does the same over at Daring Fireball for one specific thing succinctly:
Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don’t

You can come up with whatever reason you like for why Apple and Tesla are targeted specifically. My personal belief is that both companies are motivated by things other than money (Tesla has their mission, and Apple is dedicated to making products that amaze and delight). That fact is supremely offensive to many, and Wall St. people in particular. So they view it as their holy duty to try to make sure these companies are vilified and (they hope) never make any money. We can all hope they will be just as successful with Tesla as they have been with Apple.
 
When Tesla did the secondary to raise cash in Q1(or was it early Q2?), I called out here that my belief was that they were raising the money to buy out Panasonic. Raising the money for any other reason didn't really seem to make sense unless they were very worried about returning to positive FCF in Q2 and going forward.

The cash raise could have been to shore up the balance sheet but idk, it didn't seem absolutely necessary especially when at that time, they were stating they were confident about returning to positive FCF in Q2. Especially considering the fact that they were raising the money in the position of a weak share price. They could have easily waited for Q2 for a better stock price to do the secondary if it was just about shoring up the balance sheet
Nah... Q1 was the necessary wake up call: “due to unforeseen challenges we had only delivered half of the quarter’s numbers ten days before the end of the quarter”. Just imagine what their cash balance looked like on 20th March.

No minds will be changed now but it was the height of hubris not to have raised cash earlier at a higher stock price, given how many “unforeseen challenges”, both internal and external have caused problems so far and might again in the future.

I’ve assumed for a long time that Pana’s US battery business will be brought in house, though it would be a stock only (or mostly) deal surely?

Completely the right move vertically integrating cell production. Parallels to bringing the chipset in-house from Mobileye. The difference with a Pana acquisition would be that there would be continuation of IP and expertise, so hopefully you’d avoid the 12-24 month setback Tesla suffered on Autopilot. It’s especially important to do because the battery cell is the key supply constraint to aggressive scaling of volume and the capex/expansion should be done in lock step with vehicle production, rather than lagging as we saw in the past year.
 
Nah... Q1 was the necessary wake up call: “due to unforeseen challenges we had only delivered half of the quarter’s numbers ten days before the end of the quarter”. Just imagine what their cash balance looked like on 20th March.

No minds will be changed now but it was the height of hubris not to have raised cash earlier at a higher stock price, given how many “unforeseen challenges”, both internal and external have caused problems so far and might again in the future.

I’ve assumed for a long time that Pana’s US battery business will be brought in house, though it would be a stock only (or mostly) deal surely?

Completely the right move vertically integrating cell production. Parallels to bringing the chipset in-house from Mobileye. The difference with a Pana acquisition would be that there would be continuation of IP and expertise, so hopefully you’d avoid the 12-24 month setback Tesla suffered on Autopilot. It’s especially important to do because the battery cell is the key supply constraint to aggressive scaling of volume and the capex/expansion should be done in lock step with vehicle production, rather than lagging as we saw in the past year.

Except that the unforeseen challenges in Q1 were already in the process of being fixed or had been fixed before they started the secondary offering. Considering the unforeseen was purely production and cell limitations, and not demand, I don't think it was needed and i still think Tesla raised the money for reasons other that shoring up the balance sheet.
 
[SNIP]

You can come up with whatever reason you like for why Apple and Tesla are targeted specifically. My personal belief is that both companies are motivated by things other than money (Tesla has their mission, and Apple is dedicated to making products that amaze and delight). That fact is supremely offensive to many, and Wall St. people in particular. So they view it as their holy duty to try to make sure these companies are vilified and (they hope) never make any money. We can all hope they will be just as successful with Tesla as they have been with Apple.

I'll also never understand why American journalists/analysts produce so much crap about truly innovative American companies while finding time to praise and cheer on Korean dishwasher manufacturers and Chinese technology pirates.

According to them, Apple has been proudly going out of business for decades - and agreed, we can only hope that Tesla follows in their footsteps ...
 

  • Alfa Romeo deliveries fell 42 percent to 29,059.
  • Maserati’s demand suffered a 31 percent drop to 3,040.
  • Alfa Romeo was also outsold by Tesla’s Model 3, which, according to JATO Dynamics, accounted for 37,476 sales in the first half. The success of Tesla’s midsize electric sedan is actually good news for FCA because the more cars Tesla sells, the closer FCA gets to reaching its CO2 target.
 
Except that the unforeseen challenges in Q1 were already in the process of being fixed or had been fixed before they started the secondary offering. Considering the unforeseen was purely production and cell limitations, and not demand, I don't think it was needed and i still think Tesla raised the money for reasons other that shoring up the balance sheet.
As I said, I don’t expect to change minds. But Q1 delivery hell was but one of the many unanticipated problems Tesla has had with Model 3. It’s great they finally realised the importance of a sensible cash buffer. I haven’t read much about Tesla bankruptcy in a while now.
 
I'll also never understand why American journalists/analysts produce so much crap about truly innovative American companies while finding time to praise and cheer on Korean dishwasher manufacturers and Chinese technology pirates.
Because - there are some other American companies willing to wine & dine the said journalists/analysts to write crap about Tesla/Apple. Ofcourse, the money need not come just from other American companies - as they say, money has no nationality.
 
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motivated by things other than money......Apple is dedicated to making products that amaze and delight

Where’s the barf emoji when you need it.

That was a very Apple fan boyish thing to say.
I’m happy with my iPad, iPhone, ATV, and MBP. But, let’s be real.....$$$ is what it is.
$39 silicone case that could be had for $5 on Amazon.
$29 for basic cables and dongles?
Lets not forget their cash cow iPhones, which can cost as much as a 27” iMac.
And I guess their new credit card is going to amaze and delight the Apple buyers.
 
The "strong" cash flow in 1H19 was $224 million of which $164 million came from Inventory write-downs and Loss on Disposal of Fixed Asssets.
Last 4 quarters when Tesla has started selling Model 3 in volume has resulted in 2.8 Billion of Operating Cash Flow.

But I get the larger point. Tesla is not in a position to buy Panasonic part of GF1 with cash and Pana won't probably take equity (though if I was Panasonic, I would at the current price).