Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tschmidty]

I largely agree with this comment. It's like the Tesla service issue. Tesla has a lot on their plate. Trying to grow at their rate is very hard, and mgmt has to prioritize given finite resourses. BUT, this doesn't take away from the fact that any bad service may be affecting sales, and that a relatively Inferior Model S,X to the 3 (not in all, but in certain important aspects) is affecting S,X sales. Hopefully they are moving to fix these issues quickly. Maybe in early 2020 we will see upgraded S,Xs. Hardcore bulls may not see it, but there are many, many folks waiting on an upgraded S,X to pull the trigger. And I bet when Tesla does finally release these more robust upgrades, there won't be any FUSC promos. Demand will be hardy.

What about the S or X is so inferior that I would possibly want a Model 3 instead? If I need/want a larger vehicle with seating for 7 and can tow 5000lbs, what is so god awful inferior about the X that I would not buy one because the 3 is, ? better? I like my wife's Model 3 but it does not fit my needs as my primary vehicle. I consider myself fairly well informed but if I were in the market for a new vehicle, explain why the existence of the 3 would make me not want an X?

I think it is cannibalizing sales of course, simply because it is half the price, not because it can only charge at 200KW or..., well I can't think of another major reason.

 

[PaulusdB]

Ugh, stocks are so low and I don't have spare cash! I don't want to mess with calls or puts or margin, so I'm sitting here glowering. What's worse is I'll have a, for me, larger than typical pay check this coming one, and so can buy more stocks. But that's in the future around the 15th, not now.

To paraphrase Sir Richard B.:

Investment opportunities are like buses,
there's always another one coming.​

 

[StealthP3D]

Squawk Box on Twitter

CNBC trying to act like it’s another nail in the coffin of Musk. When your car continues to achieve five star ratings across the world then you can have some nice safety claims.

That was the most blatant hit piece I've ever seen on CNBC! It segued into whether their accounting numbers were trustable which was obviously set up. This is not off-the-cuff banter as they make it appear.

When Q2 deliveries shot down the "lack of demand" short thesis, people here speculated what negative would be the new talking point. But I don't recall anyone guessing they would dredge up the NHTSA letter sent to Tesla reminding them to only advertise the NHTSA within previously published guidelines.

Maybe I'm missing it but I can't find the recent news in this story. It's like they are reporting 10-month-old news without anything new.

 

[LJS22]

That was the most blatant hit piece I've ever seen on CNBC! It segued into whether their accounting numbers were trustable which was obviously set up. This is not off-the-cuff banter as they make it appear.

When Q2 deliveries shot down the "lack of demand" short thesis, people here speculated what negative would be the new talking point. But I don't recall anyone guessing they would dredge up the NHTSA letter sent to Tesla reminding them to only advertise the NHTSA within previously published guidelines.

Maybe I'm missing it but I can't find the recent news in this story. It's like they are reporting 10-month-old news without anything new.

Yea I sense that they are frustrated that people keep investing in Tesla. I think one of the old theories was that Tesla would run out of investors and not be able to raise money at some point. The opposite has been true. Tesla has a very diverse range of investors from small share holders to the sharks. And many are playing the long game as Tesla grows. We have more reasons to be optimistic about what Tesla can produce than shorts have of reasons Tesla won’t work.

 

[ZsoZso]

This is great advertising for Tesla.

Tesla Scrutinized by U.S. Agency Over Model 3 Safety Claims

Some key quotes from the article:

NHTSA lawyers took issue with an Oct. 7 Tesla blog post that said the Model 3 had achieved the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle the agency ever tested, the documents released Tuesday by the legal transparency group Plainsite show. The regulator said the claims were inconsistent with its advertising guidelines regarding crash ratings

So NHTSA does not dispute the fact what Tesla posted, only that it is "inconsistent with its advertising guidelines", i.e. NHTSA does not like Tesla pointing out that their results are actually better than the others in the huge bucket of "overall 5* rating".

NHTSA issued a statement in October that took exception with Tesla’s characterization of the agency’s safety ratings. The agency said its crash tests combine into an overall safety rating and that it doesn’t rank vehicles that score the same ratings.

Translation: NHTSA does not want people to see how bad the safety of some of the other cars in the top category are. So Tesla is a "bad boy" for leaking such internal information disparaging others.

Al Prescott, Tesla’s deputy general counsel, wrote in a reply letter that the company respectfully disagreed with NHTSA.

“Tesla has provided consumers with fair and objective information to compare the relative safety of vehicles having 5-star overall ratings,” Prescott wrote in an Oct. 31 letter.

oops, the matter isn't settled in the dispute

 

[Antares Nebula]

What about the S or X is so inferior that I would possibly want a Model 3 instead? If I need/want a larger vehicle with seating for 7 and can tow 5000lbs, what is so god awful inferior about the X that I would not buy one because the 3 is, ? better? I like my wife's Model 3 but it does not fit my needs as my primary vehicle. I consider myself fairly well informed but if I were in the market for a new vehicle, explain why the existence of the 3 would make me not want an X?

I think it is cannibalizing sales of course, simply because it is half the price, not because it can only charge at 200KW or..., well I can't think of another major reason.

That is clearly not what I'm saying. You don't need to get so defensive. It's not binary. Of course, there are many folks that will prefer an S,X over the 3. One reason you point out is the larger room. It also has many other advantages (like better suspension, and longer range). You have to look at all the various factors and weigh it against your own needs and values. Many will buy an S,X as it is now. But more will buy it when the additional upgrades come. My point is is that S,X, as it currently stands, is not reflecting its true, higher market demand. It's not really "being all that it can be".

 

[KarenRei]

Looked it up on elbil forum, looks like 20-sh of August is when the frenzy will start in Norway

Also, in case anyone's curious, activity has resumed at the prospective service centre / store in "Mini-Norway" (aka Iceland ). Little had happened since they set up furniture at the end of June, but yesterday they bought and started setting up computers and printers, and today there was a person in there working on a laptop, a cleaning truck on site, some unknown person's Model X, etc.

 

[dc_h]

anyone have idea when M3 SR+ will hit Norway delivery centers?

Latest shipment just arrived. Next ship coming in August 15-17th. Both ships may have a lot of RHD, so seems like they can't keep up with orders in Europe this quarter. Glovis Quest arrives at SFO port 80 tomorrow and should be heading to Zeebrudge by Monday the 12th. It seems like they need a second dock at port 80 to load fast enough at times. They are loading cars for Australia and New Zealand in Oakland, across the bay, but this is likely in the hundreds or low thousands, but great to see they need more capacity for shipping.

Good luck.

 

[jerry33]

That is clearly not what I'm saying. You don't need to get so defensive. It's not binary. Of course, there are many folks that will prefer an S,X over the 3. One reason you point out is the larger room. It also has many other advantages (like better suspension, and longer range). You have to look at all the various factors and weigh it against your own needs and values. Many will buy an S,X as it is now. But more will buy it when the additional upgrades come. My point is is that S,X, as it currently stands, is not reflecting its true, higher market demand. It's not really "being all that it can be".

But it's a very big jump from what it was. That's how improvements in tech work because if you can buy it, it's already obsolete. If you wait you will always get something better/faster/cheaper but you will lose out on the use. That's really no excuse to not buy now if it's a reasonable time to upgrade and you have the funds.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is why there will always be drama on this board. No clear rules or boundaries or enforcement. Doesn't anyone watch the Dog Whisperer?

Uh, no. Thought that was obvious.

 

[dc_h]

Also, in case anyone's curious, activity has resumed at the prospective service centre / store in "Mini-Norway" (aka Iceland ). Little had happened since they set up furniture at the end of June, but yesterday they bought and started setting up computers and printers, and today there was a person in there working on a laptop, a cleaning truck on site, some unknown person's Model X, etc.

I'd guess shipments to Iceland to happen via container ship, like Auckland NZ and Australia. Could this happen under the radar? I'd assume you'd be at the top of the list if a delivery were imminent.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think it is cannibalizing sales of course, simply because it is half the price, not because it can only charge at 200KW or..., well I can't think of another major reason.

Exactly! I could have afforded a Model S years ago (and I knew it was the best car in the world) but I didn't buy one because I knew myself well enough to know I would have been spending around $130K and I just don't want to spend that much on a car. Everyone's "line" is different but it was obvious from the start that Model 3 would cannibalize sales from the larger Teslas, the only question was "How much?". And the answer to that question was largely dependent upon just how good they made the Model 3. Would it be an economy car with a few bells and whistles thrown in so it could masquerade as a premium car or would it be a premium car right down to its wheels, tires and body structure?

Yes, Tesla designed and engineered the Model 3 so well it is cannibalizing sales of their premium vehicles. I think this was the safe way to execute Tesla's strategy. Some cannibalization of higher-end models was an acceptable trade-off for keeping the name "Tesla" synonymous with high-performance and state of the art engineering. Higher-end luxury cars (above the Model 3) are an extremely small part of the automobile market and are not Teslas highest priority. If they could be everything to everyone, they would, but they can't so they (rightfully) focus on the priorities that have the highest chance of getting them to where they want to be.

In time Tesla will release comprehensively refreshed S&X and as long as it's before another manufacturer releases a superior luxury EV, it will be soon enough. My guess is they will do it well before any competitor manages to out-do the Models S & X. Those who are critical of them for not doing it sooner have obviously never brought a new car to market and have absolutely no idea of what it entails in terms of time, experienced manpower and cash. Personally, I'm highly impressed with the speed and improvements with which they released in the Raven refresh considering they were in the middle of the Model 3 production/delivery ramp.

If I had the need for a larger car, I would seriously consider the Model S with the recent Raven improvements. 370 miles! Damn! I don't need that much range day to day but extra range can make an EV just that much more of a "magic carpet ride" particularly on longer trips in remote areas.

 

[kengchang]

Latest shipment just arrived. Next ship coming in August 15-17th. Both ships may have a lot of RHD, so seems like they can't keep up with orders in Europe this quarter. Glovis Quest arrives at SFO port 80 tomorrow and should be heading to Zeebrudge by Monday the 12th. It seems like they need a second dock at port 80 to load fast enough at times. They are loading cars for Australia and New Zealand in Oakland, across the bay, but this is likely in the hundreds or low thousands, but great to see they need more capacity for shipping.

Good luck.

Any further information on loading across the bay in Oakland? Link, twitter etcs?

 

[StealthP3D]

Also, in case anyone's curious, activity has resumed at the prospective service centre / store in "Mini-Norway" (aka Iceland ). Little had happened since they set up furniture at the end of June, but yesterday they bought and started setting up computers and printers, and today there was a person in there working on a laptop, a cleaning truck on site, some unknown person's Model X, etc.

What? And you didn't set up a tent to sleep in, lawn chairs, a cooler and a BBQ? I'm thinking the long wait has taken something out of you!

 

[KarenRei]

What? And you didn't set up a tent to sleep in, lawn chairs, a cooler and a BBQ? I'm thinking the long wait has taken something out of you!

People joke that I'm their "reporter in a tent"

 

[tschmidty]

That is clearly not what I'm saying. You don't need to get so defensive. It's not binary. Of course, there are many folks that will prefer an S,X over the 3. One reason you point out is the larger room. It also has many other advantages (like better suspension, and longer range). You have to look at all the various factors and weigh it against your own needs and values. Many will buy an S,X as it is now. But more will buy it when the additional upgrades come. My point is is that S,X, as it currently stands, is not reflecting its true, higher market demand. It's not really "being all that it can be".

I am not trying to be defensive, but your statement clearly said "and that a relatively Inferior Model S,X to the 3 (not in all, but in certain important aspects) is affecting S,X sales" is clearly saying that part of the reason that S,X sales are suffering is because they are "relatively" inferior to the 3, and I heartily disagree. I am simply asking you for an example of the important aspect that is inferior on the S,X compared to the 3 that would affect someone's purchasing decision.

There are lots of reasons S,X sales are lower without (falsely IMO) saying they are inferior products to the 3, and that is the part of your statement I was addressing. I'd also question what upgrades you expect to come that would drive sales without driving up price. I don't think new colors or new interior panels will drive sales and range is the only thing I see happening.

That said, I do think the higher models should to be priced lower to really match the value of the 3. Or accept, as Elon does, that they are going to remain niche products and sales will be lower since some people that could have stretched to buy an S will get a 3 instead.

All that said, I still really want an X!

 

[KarenRei]

I'd guess shipments to Iceland to happen via container ship, like Auckland NZ and Australia. Could this happen under the radar? I'd assume you'd be at the top of the list if a delivery were imminent.

Certainly could happen under the radar, but those of us with reservations would surely be asked to convert them into orders first.

 

[jerry33]

I am not trying to be defensive, but your statement clearly said "and that a relatively Inferior Model S,X to the 3 (not in all, but in certain important aspects) is affecting S,X sales" is clearly saying that part of the reason that S,X sales are suffering is because they are "relatively" inferior to the 3, and I heartily disagree. I am simply asking you for an example of the important aspect that is inferior on the S,X compared to the 3 that would affect someone's purchasing decision.

There are lots of reasons S,X sales are lower without (falsely IMO) saying they are inferior products to the 3, and that is the part of your statement I was addressing. I'd also question what upgrades you expect to come that would drive sales without driving up price. I don't think new colors or new interior panels will drive sales and range is the only thing I see happening.

That said, I do think the higher models should to be priced lower to really match the value of the 3. Or accept, as Elon does, that they are going to remain niche products and sales will be lower since some people that could have stretched to buy an S will get a 3 instead.

All that said, I still really want an X!

A car that is 80K plus will always sell less than a car that is 40K. That doesn't make them unimportant, just low volume.

 

[jbcarioca]

No, Hong Kong is a very wealthy and advanced city, cars are scrapped en masse. Most of them are either stripped of parts for sale to poorer, less developed areas of the world or exported as whole vehicles if they are in good enough condition. The process is still called "scrapping", the government is trying to get older cars off the streets of Hong Kong.

Not presently relevant to Tesla but Singapore has similar obsolescence rules. For decades Japan, HK ans Singapore have been exorting used crs to other RHD markets which had robust demand for used cars. Everywhere from Thailand and Malaysia, NZ and Australia, plus India/Pakistan/Sri Lanka, Former British colonies in Africa and elsewhere plus UK itself have been importers of used cars from Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan. There are even kei car clubs in the UK for cars that were never officially imported from Japan.

This information is absolutely relevant to Tesla in only 3-4 years, when a supply of used RHD Teslas becomes larger. As Elon recently observed manufacturing and/or importing new Teslas to India is grotesquely expensive. With used volumes Tesla should have infrastructure to support charging, parts and service fro used Teslas in a number of these countries. Quite a few manufacturers do that implicitly or explicitly and have done for decades. Doing so generates better resale values and expands the customer base.

FWIW, the specific figures on exports of used vehicles from Japan, HK and Singapore is fairly easy to come by although most such data is not in a general consumer friendly format. I have been thinking about this for several years but have posted nothing because RHD availability has been negligible thus far.

Lastly although I mentioned the UK in the context of imports from Japan they are also be big exporter of used cars, mostly off-lease vehicles 2-3 years old. Those supplies are not so numerous as are those of Japan, they are vastly more skewed towards German and other European branded vehicles so are quite attractive as used vehicles. Were Tesla to prepare properly this could be a significant revenue enhancer.

 

[dc_h]

Any further information on loading across the bay in Oakland? Link, twitter etcs?

VedaPrime on twitter has been tracking NZ and Aussie deliveries. The cool thing is that other smaller countries could be getting cars through Oakland and they are not being tracked, so gives some upside surprise potential.

VedaPrime on Twitter

Hope its ok to post.