Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheGrimSweeper]

A lot of people think the S is actually the best looking Tesla.

I find the X really depends on the color. Personally, I really like it with the White paint and black 20inch rims.

 

[jerry33]

In addition to lower cost the Model 3 is superior in:
1) It’s lighter
2) It’s center of gravity is lower
3) It’s polar moment of inertia is less.


I.e. It handles far better than Model S or X. One can argue that is not an important characteristic for themself, but one can not argue that it is an area in which the Model 3 is demonstrably superior.

1. It's a smaller car. If it wasn't lighter there would be some serious design issues.
2. There is also less ground clearance (curbs and speed bumps, as well as deep snow).
3. The polar moment of intertia on S and X is also smaller than ICE cars and perhaps other BEVs as well. Yes, the 3 is has a lower one, but that's not really the point, you need to compare to similar size cars (Of course, the 3 will be far superior, so will the S/X when compared to their respective size vehicles).
All you're really saying is that a smaller car is more nimble than a larger car. That's been known for a very long time. It doesn't make is superior, just a different class of car with different characteristics.

 

[ggr]

I somewhat agree with this. But you're taking Elon's quote out of context. That was referring to Model 3. And there, I completely agree. But even on the recent earnings calls, Elon was at a loss to explain the lack of demand for S,X:

I'm pretty sure he said it many times before the Model 3 existed.

 

[CorneliusXX]

So the fact that it can only charge at 200Kw versus 250Kw (which I did mention) is the deciding factor in your purchasing decisions. So having 20% faster charging for, what, about the first 5 minutes of supercharging? So 1 minute faster charging is how you think "many" people judge a 100k purchase.

Agree to disagree and let's drop it as off topic.

It's difficult to understand peoples priorities at times. Save a minute or two on charging times on the odd occasion charging at home doesn't cover travel distance vs better suspension, better air quality, larger size, better acceleration, etc.

The S&X are clearly better vehicles, just not so much better that they are universally seen as being worth the extra money.

Deciding which vehicle is better is mostly based on finances rather than technology.

 

[ruralectric]

I somewhat agree with this. But you're taking Elon's quote out of context. That was referring to Model 3. And there, I completely agree. But even on the recent earnings calls, Elon was at a loss to explain the lack of demand for S,X:

"Toni Sacconaghi

Okay. Thank you for that. If I could just follow-up. Elon, I'm wondering, if you can comment on whether you believe Model 3 is having any cannibalization impact on S and X sales or why you think that – or why else there might be sort of a structural step down in the demand and delivery levels relative to what we’ve seen over the last five or six years?

Elon Musk

Actually, we're just talking about this earlier today. We're not quite sure ourselves. I think there's some cannibalization, maybe false expectation in the market that there's like some big overhaul coming for S and X, which would then cause people to hesitate to buy, if they think there's some like radical redesign coming, which is why I've stated publicly that this is not the case.

The Model S and X today are radically better than the ones that – when we first started production, especially S. Like say like 2013 or 2012 Model S compared to today's Model S night and day. In fact, I still run into people I know, who have like 2013 Model S, and they think it hasn't changed. And like it is dramatically better in every way. But we don't do model years. We just roll in improvements as they come. So – but I think there is maybe a communications issue, where people don't realize just how much better the S and X are today than when we first started.

And I think we actually want to address that communications issue and just get a better understanding of– from the front lines like what demand should be higher for S and X than it is and will get to the bottom of it and fix it."

I have felt for some time that Tesla should incorporate SOME kind of badging to distinguish between hardware versions, same as they do with Falcon 9 Block 4 or Block 5. It would add some precision when talking about hardware feature sets. Model S.2, S.3 for example. It would be much more precise than 2018 Model S vs 2019 Model S, since changes of course do not align with calendar years.

I believe Tesla does themselves a great disservice by not adopting some such scheme and an opportunity missed (so far) to create the language to describe and highlight the improvements in their product offerings when body styles are little changed.

I don't use social media but would love it if someone feels they can get Elon's attention to propose such a thing (though at the same time it's hard for me to imagine that this hasn't already been considered).

 

[kbM3]

1. It's a smaller car. If it wasn't lighter there would be some serious design issues.
2. There is also less ground clearance (curbs and speed bumps, as well as deep snow).
3. The polar moment of intertia on S and X is also smaller than ICE cars and perhaps other BEVs as well. Yes, the 3 is has a lower one, but that's not really the point, you need to compare to similar size cars (Of course, the 3 will be far superior, so will the S/X when compared to their respective size vehicles).
All you're really saying is that a smaller car is more nimble than a larger car. That's been known for a very long time. It doesn't make is superior, just a different class of car with different characteristics.

It makes it superior in handling. So it makes the statement that Models SX are superior in every aspect aside from cost completely wrong.

 

[22522]

I have felt for some time that Tesla should incorporate SOME kind of badging to distinguish between hardware versions, same as they do with Falcon 9 Block 4 or Block 5. It would add some precision when talking about hardware feature sets. Model S.2, S.3 for example. It would be much more precise than 2018 Model S vs 2019 Model S, since changes of course do not align with calendar years.

I believe Tesla does themselves a great disservice by not adopting some such scheme and an opportunity missed (so far) to create the language to describe and highlight the improvements in their product offerings when body styles are little changed.

I don't use social media but would love it if someone feels they can get Elon's attention to propose such a thing (though at the same time it's hard for me to imagine that this hasn't already been considered).

It shows on the screen.

 

[ruralectric]

It shows on the screen.

Hey. We're doing the best we can.

Ha. Oh I get it now. You're talking about version info on car screen. True. The info on a specific car is there, but when you are looking at press pieces that compare makes and models it just doesn't come into play.

(@22522 I thought you were making a wise crack about my avatar. Sorry.)

 

[ggies07]

When electricity comes from wind or solar machines,

What are "solar machines" ? I know of solar panels, a product that just sits there, but not these machines they speak of.....

 

[CorneliusXX]

Eh I actually love the S exterior.....it should be pointed out that it's stayed "in style" for like 5 years now without a full refresh which is a really impressive thing. I also find the balance between standing out and not being too unique is perfect. The S is meant for the everyday commute with some style and can hold a family. I think you take some cues from the Roadster 2 like the front end and lights and the rear lights and put that in the S but besides that, I think the design is close to perfect.

Agreed. S b hot AF.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I have felt for some time that Tesla should incorporate SOME kind of badging to distinguish between hardware versions, same as they do with Falcon 9 Block 4 or Block 5. It would add some precision when talking about hardware feature sets. Model S.2, S.3 for example. It would be much more precise than 2018 Model S vs 2019 Model S, since changes of course do not align with calendar years.

I believe Tesla does themselves a great disservice by not adopting some such scheme and an opportunity missed (so far) to create the language to describe and highlight the improvements in their product offerings when body styles are little changed.

I don't use social media but would love it if someone feels they can get Elon's attention to propose such a thing (though at the same time it's hard for me to imagine that this hasn't already been considered).

That's probably pretty difficult when they are pushing minor iterations all the time. Where do you draw the line for a new number.

 

[Doggydogworld]

What are "solar machines" ? I know of solar panels, a product that just sits there, but not these machines they speak of.....

Solar thermal plants, e.g. Crescent Dunes, are machines.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

So, what happened is that one or more OEMs complained to the NHTSA.

And then someone conveniently knew to FOIA it...

 

[ruralectric]

That's probably pretty difficult when they are pushing minor iterations all the time. Where do you draw the line for a new number.

Not perfect I agree, but the present badging scheme doesn't provide ANY differentiation within a model year. If a reviewer wants to obfuscate what hardware they tested, it's easy to do. On the other hand, even if the reviewer wants to be up front about HW version it takes a little digging to get the exact specs. And when you have a site like insideevs that publishes a large performance comparison across lots of vehicles, precise HW version often gets omitted.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I was screening for stocks that have sequential revenue growth,
That is sales that grow every quarter . A Characteristic present in
the “ tornado phase “.

Which brought to my attention two stocks
With sequential sales growth over several years, Match and Shake Shak.
Both had huge Price increases in the last few days,
But another characteristic was they were
Both heavily shorted.

Tesla had sequential growth for the last
5 years every quarter until the first quarter
Of this year.

In the second qtr of this year they again reverted
To sequential sales growth, and moreover the short interest
Is near its highs. If tesla can maintain sequential
Growth, the stock will rally .

We should expect sequential growth in the 3rd and 4th qtr
According to guidance.

Tesla has had down quarters before. Q1 and Q3 of 2015 were down sequentially, as was Q1 of 2016. They haven't had a quarter that was down Y/Y since shipping the Model S - this quarter will probably be the first.

 

[keydiver]

It's difficult to understand peoples priorities at times...
Deciding which vehicle is better is mostly based on finances rather than technology.

Another consideration is the person's physical size. A guy that works at my gym has seen both my Tesla's, and tells everyone that his next car is a Tesla. There are 2 conflicting problems:
1) His budget is only about $60,000, so even an S 100D is out of his budget. So, I told him he really needs to check out a Model 3 Performance. But, problem #2:
2) He is a big guy, both 6'3" and muscular/big build. He presently drives a BMW 5 series, and says he prefers bigger cars because of his size.
I think I have convinced him to go drive both cars, and have told him the Model 3 is actually a lot larger inside that it appears because of the increased cabin size from having no motor and transmission up front. If he feels comfortable in the 3P I think he would be happier in the long run, IMO, than picking up a 3 or 4 year old used Model S.

 

[Doggydogworld]

March I say!

340k Q3
395 Q4
412 January 2020
430 February
455 March vs 435k for the Leaf


Great data, thanks.

Leaf sells 5-6k/month worldwide, should be 460k+ next March. Model 3 will easily beat it to 500k, though.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just when I thought the mystery accumulation was done, we have a day like today. Stock is only slightly outperforming the Nasdaq, but if you actually look at the stock action throughout the day, it's mostly ignoring the macro hourly trend. In fact buy orders have been coming in at times when the Nasdaq was actually going down.

I'm actually ok with the stock going in either direction. Got some funds coming in towards end of the month and if it stays at 230 or below, it's a no brainer for me to add to the position. But if it shoots up to 250, I finally start buying into other stocks to diversify a bit.

 

[kengchang]

Tesla has had down quarters before. Q1 and Q3 of 2015 were down sequentially, as was Q1 of 2016. They haven't had a quarter that was down Y/Y since shipping the Model S - this quarter will probably be the first.

Q3 2018 is highly inflated due to car being stored around the US to delay crossing the 200K sold.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I've spoken to a bunch of people recently about my S. They have huge misconceptions. Mostly thinking the range is 50-60 milers (LOL). The wider market has no idea how good the S is. The only things you need to do to double sales of the S and X are:
1) Get the word out about the true capabilities, and bust the myths
2) A few more supercharger sites (which double as great advertising, and alleviate range anxiety) wouldn't hurt.
There is NOTHING outdated about the tech or style or specs.

in fact speaking of 2)...
Why are the superchargers so bland. Why not stick some information *on* the charger that dispels the myths. maybe not a huge billboard, but its a perfect place to have some sort of blurb about what they are. I swear a LOT of people outside the EV bubble see the tesla superchargers and don't even realize they are looking at electric cars charging.

Maybe a readout on the side: *Currently charging this car at 250mph. Charging to full in 5.2 minutes remaijing*