Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Nice to hear from Rob, I miss him.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793658151964971312

 

[UkNorthampton]

I wonder if media coverage/FUD would change if media companies had Tesla/TSLA stock

UK broadcasters trade ad airtime for advertisers’ shares

With advertisers slashing their spend, channels have found a new way to fill unsold ad space

www.theguardian.com

 

[elasalle]

Would they do $2/watt? I don't know, they won't tell me on the website anymore. But the last time I could get pricing from them without a sales call was in July 2023 and it was $2.30/watt then

10.00 kW Solar Panels $23,000 (25 panels)
1 powerwall $10,000
Cash Price $33,000/$23,100 (after federal 30%) (projected savings $33,525 on a $165 mo bill in TN, and no those savings aren't the payback math, that's expected savings above payback during the life of the system)

and that does include installation but not any unexpected costs they would add after a site survey.

I can't remember if the projected savings was including the $7,000 for the powerwall or not, either way it's a big win and a single powerwall would hold my house for several days even in a worst case.

If TSLA was still at $400+ a share I'd have already pulled the trigger on a system. I'll pull the trigger eventually, just can't do it now without selling shares I'd rather hold.

I didn’t sell shares , but I did sell 30 Covered Calls (Jan 25 250) and got me 30K
Monies going to a 12kw system- already installed and pending inspection
After tax rebate , system costs 21K
Cheers!!

 

[Drax7]

Except solar is insanely expensive. I would have to pay 12 years of electric bills in cash upfront to get solar

We don't pay insane rates per kWh like CA. I'd have to pay over $32k for 10kW to replace a $200/mth bill @ $.15/kWh

I live in palm beach county, that is precisely what I get quoted from 3 different solar installers.
I am taking a pass on it.

 

[CitizenKane]

Ive also had full FSD on a car I later sold...don't mind very much since I am a software developer and understood the risk better than many. And Tesla needed the cash at the time...

But not buying Premium Connectivity I do not get. It's like handicapping your own car. Traffic data is very valuable since I live outside a large city. Sentry mode use so little battery - used it for a week last winter when flew to the Canarys. Hardly any power loss at all on my TMY. The sattelite map view is very helpful when visiting new places. Netflix and browsing the web nice whenever I have to wait in my car. Not only charging - but ie. when I take my mum to the doc. And Ilisten to Spotify so much - many podcasts (miss you Rob) in addition to my music.

You are making a good case, I may need to reconsider

 

[scaesare]

lol - the very definition of a liar. Yes officer, I know I spoke false information, but if you think about it, that’s sort of like telling the truth in a bizarro world kind of way. Saying and posting falsehoods is the same as lying.

I don't think most reasonable folks would say it's lying without intent.

Example:

Me (based on best information I had): "The next SpaceX launch is on the 5th"
SpaceX webpage (after updates): "The launch window will open as early as 7 a.m. CT on the 6th"


So was I going by what I'd read from a 3rd party?: Yes

Was I lazy by not checking an official source?: Yes.

Did I post a false statement?: Indeed.

Would you call that lying?: I hope not.

 

[scaesare]

SpaceX only appears to be more successful than Tesla because there's a lot less FUD about them. They have their share of setbacks (for example cancellation of DearMoon, delay of Starship, etc) and obstacles (rising Chinese competition, very high valuation, uncertainty about Starlink demand, labor disputes, etc). But it's hard to generate FUD about them since:
1. It's a private company so there's less attack surfaces
2. There's no short interest since its stock is not publicly traded
3. There's no NHTSA plasters recall all over the news, if there's a defect it just gets worked out between professionals.
4. Their investors share Elon's vision, no idiots like KoGuan Leo or the guy trying to overturn Elon's comp package
5. Elon has absolute control of the company via 70% voting shares.
6. The field they're in is fairly obscure, need some knowledge about rocket science (really engineering) to create effective FUD.

While Gwynne Shotwell is absolutely a big reason why SpaceX is successful, I'm not sure Tesla doesn't already have the same ingredients for success. It's just not focused on a simple person, since Tesla is an order of magnitude larger than SpaceX.

From where I'm sitting, Tesla has much larger upside than SpaceX if they can get FSD and Optimus working, alas some Tesla investors are determined to throw this away just to spike Elon.

I also think that not having a product they are selling to the public at large ,as opposed to public entitles which are a different animal than the average consumer, changes the game quite a bit.

Having to deal with the whims of the average Joe, millions of opinions, media coverage, financial changes, etc... when doing public sales has gotta be a pain....

 

[Singuy]

Baidu has released a video promoting Tesla using their map in China.
The map has features I have not seen before on my Tesla, including identifying bus lanes and a countdown timer for the light turn to turn green.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797491806206378075

Yes their navigation has stop light timing integration. Also it gives other information like up coming cameras that tracks seat belts and minor traffic citations.

 

[nativewolf]

I don't think most reasonable folks would say it's lying without intent.

Example:

Me (based on best information I had): "The next SpaceX launch is on the 5th"
SpaceX webpage (after updates): "The launch window will open as early as 7 a.m. CT on the 6th"


So was I going by what I'd read from a 3rd party?: Yes

Was I lazy by not checking an official source?: Yes.

Did I post a false statement?: Indeed.

Would you call that lying?: I hope not.

He literally is the CEO of the company. If he says starting Semi production next year..4 years in a row...he's lying. He had no intent on that and no capability to do it. It was impossible because they didn't have 4680 going and the reason they didn't have 4680 was that they didn't staff it and had no idea how to move it into production. Pano and LG both gave realistic timelines and guess what, they've both beaten Tesla there.

It takes someone on the team going to reuters to blow the story on no Mexico facility. Otherwise he'd have lied again and talked about some small delay or something else. It's canceled.

The semi factory spot. Nothing is happening. Nothing. You watch all the tesla drone video shots of the Tesla Semi factory soaring upwards? Why not? Do you know what the Semi factory looks like? Dirt. Same as it did in 2022. It's not going up. It will take 2 years to go up. It's not moving. Why not just tell the freaking truth, it is going to be 2026 at the earliest before we see any Tesla Semi coming out of a mass production process. At this moment that is absolutely the earliest I could see it happening. Really at this point I wish they'd just spin it off into a standalone business.

 

[lascavarian]

Broker is E*Trade. Voting shares is lower than the shares I hold in the account. Proxy vote site uses the statement “Shares available per proposal”.

I have not purchased shares this year. Voted shares are about 22% lower than my holding.

I had some covered calls sold when I voted. All are closed now. Proxy vote still indicates lowered shares numbers this morning.

I have some margin.

Comments?

 

[scaesare]

He literally is the CEO of the company. If he says starting Semi production next year..4 years in a row...he's lying. He had no intent on that and no capability to do it. It was impossible because they didn't have 4680 going and the reason they didn't have 4680 was that they didn't staff it and had no idea how to move it into production. Pano and LG both gave realistic timelines and guess what, they've both beaten Tesla there.

Again, what's the intent? I don't disagree that his time estimates can be grossly off. I think in his mind he has ideals based on 1st principles, and he often fails to take it to account not everything goes according to plan. Or that quite frankly the "plan" is larglely a goal/concept in his head.

Sure, I'd like that to be better. But I also don't believe that he intended to deceive folks about the semi, and he wanted and hoped it was going on to production...

It takes someone on the team going to reuters to blow the story on no Mexico facility. Otherwise he'd have lied again and talked about some small delay or something else. It's canceled.

Well, you are assuming what he'd do here, so not going to argue on his hypothetical actions that didn't occur...

The semi factory spot. Nothing is happening. Nothing. You watch all the tesla drone video shots of the Tesla Semi factory soaring upwards? Why not? Do you know what the Semi factory looks like? Dirt. Same as it did in 2022. It's not going up. It will take 2 years to go up. It's not moving. Why not just tell the freaking truth, it is going to be 2026 at the earliest before we see any Tesla Semi coming out of a mass production process. At this moment that is absolutely the earliest I could see it happening. Really at this point I wish they'd just spin it off into a standalone business.

Again, I don't think Elon thinks that by saying it's going up when folks can look for themselves, his intent is to deceive them, which is what lying really is.

I'm not saying take whatever he says gospel, as he has certainly been wrong. But I don't there's the intent that equates to him being a liar.

 

[MP3Mike]

Broker is E*Trade. Voting shares is lower than the shares I hold in the account. Proxy vote site uses the statement “Shares available per proposal”.

I have not purchased shares this year. Voted shares are about 22% lower than my holding.

I had some covered calls sold when I voted. All are closed now. Proxy vote still indicates lowered shares numbers this morning.

I have some margin.

Any shares you have margin against are not yours and you can't vote them. (I'm not sure if covered calls impact voting rights or not.)

But as far as timing, all that matters is what state your account was in at the end of the day April 15th. Nothing you did after that will impact how many shares you have available to vote.

 

[Leftlane22]

I don't think most reasonable folks would say it's lying without intent.

Example:

Me (based on best information I had): "The next SpaceX launch is on the 5th"
SpaceX webpage (after updates): "The launch window will open as early as 7 a.m. CT on the 6th"


So was I going by what I'd read from a 3rd party?: Yes

Was I lazy by not checking an official source?: Yes.

Did I post a false statement?: Indeed.

Would you call that lying?: I hope not.

Saying what you heard from a 3rd party is drastically different than being the actual root source yourself.

I am 25 years old (I’m really not anywhere close to that) = I am lying
You saying about me “he is 25 years old” based on what I told you = you being lied to

Elon is the root source.

 

[lascavarian]

Any shares you have margin against are not yours and you can't vote them. (I'm not sure if covered calls impact voting rights or not.)

But as far as timing, all that matters is what state your account was in at the end of the day April 15th. Nothing you did after that will impact how many shares you have available to vote.

Interesting, I called brokerage services just now and they seem to agree that margin account status may reduce voting shares as they may be encumbered in some manner per the brokerage agreement.

Seems strange since I can sell covered calls for the full holding which seems a sort of encumbrance on my part.

I learned something.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

The next orchestrated attack on Elon, Tesla, you & me has arrived:

https://www.reuters.com/legal/tesla-shareholder-sues-musk-alleged-75-billion-insider-trading-2024-06-01/

A shareholder suit accusing Elon of insider trading when he sold shares to buy Twitter.
Where is this suit filed? Delaware Chancery Court.
Who will be the presiding judge? You guessed it, Kathleen McCormick.
The outcome? Predetermined, in my opinion.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797639382704267731

 

[scaesare]

Saying what you heard from a 3rd party is drastically different than being the actual root source yourself.

I am 25 years old (I’m really not anywhere close to that) = I am lying
You saying about me “he is 25 years old” based on what I told you = you being lied to

Elon is the root source.

My point was, if you are stating what you think/believe to be true, without the intent to deceive, then I don't consider it lying... and folks who do to me fall in to the same category as those who scream "But Elon promised!!", when he he's never did any such thing.

This is particularly true when predicting future events, with uncertain future conditions, and often with incomplete data.


How's this example:

You (in 2019): "Honey, I promise next year we'll go on that dream vacation!"

[COVID HAPPENS]

Your wife: "You lying scumbag!"

 

[cliff harris]

I also think that not having a product they are selling to the public at large ,as opposed to public entitles which are a different animal than the average consumer, changes the game quite a bit.

Having to deal with the whims of the average Joe, millions of opinions, media coverage, financial changes, etc... when doing public sales has gotta be a pain....

This is another reason why the Tesla semi is so exciting. It will be the first Tesla vehicle aimed squarely at corporate customers. Spacex gets pretty much everyone's business, because when rocket A launches at $80million and rocket B launches at $8million, you have to be insane, corrupt, or the worlds biggest virtue signaling organisation to give money to rocket A. With a personal car purchase, people already select a vehicle partly based on styling and superficial differences, so being influenced by an angry FUD stream to choose another EV is way easier.

When the semi hits mass production, there will definitely be a bunch of companies loudly proclaiming their orders and taking pride in them, and then a huge bunch of companies who buy them anyway, but don't want to jump into the culture wars over it.
And obviously a LOT of trucking is done by pretty no-brand haulage companies that nobody has heard of.

By the time the semi factory is complete, I think the first few thousand will already be pre sold to pespi, walmart etc, based on their experience with the hand built ones. The minute a 3rd party haulage firm orders some, it will snowball, because its a cut-throat low-margin business and anybody with ICE trucks will be screwed.

 

[mongo]

Interesting, I called brokerage services just now and they seem to agree that margin account status may reduce voting shares as they may be encumbered in some manner per the brokerage agreement.

Seems strange since I can sell covered calls for the full holding which seems a sort of encumbrance on my part.

I learned something.

Your calls are backed by shares you own, but may be lent out. Just like you can sell your shares, they can be used to satisfy a call assigned to you. In either case, your broker would recall those shares (and likely lend out others, otherwise the borrower needs to buy shares back).

Voting rights depend on if they were lent on the day of record.

 

[Usain]

I charge at night when I sleep - so I rarely used Netflix or apps.

It's not just for charging. My wife and I use streaming in our Tesla all the time. When we get food from a takeout or drive thru, we prefer to eat in the privacy and comfort of our Tesla. We have these nice trays from Jowua:

I have a "Dining" profile that retracts the steering wheel and moves my seat back.

We eat and enjoy the streaming. Can you even do this in any other make of car?