Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Back on topic.....I just almost threw my back out. Tried to bend over and pick up a big chest and the right lower side of my back seized up.

Straightened myself okout and took 4 Advil. After 10 minutes was able to get onto my bed with no pain. Still mild tightness, but I feel like I could get up and walk around. Did I dodge a bullet?

Hydrating like crazy and letting the Advil take effect for 40 mins. Am I ok to get up if I feel just minimal tightness or should I just lock it down for the day?

I see what your doing here.

SP is raising up and it is not due to your back health!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

although $TSLA is mirroring macros it is outperforming them, just like it under performed previously.

My expectation is that the under performance was driving by shorting to exaggerate the macros and the slight outperform is the result of slow covering to minimize rebound. The shorts are taking profit to fund the next downward push.

Shorting and bear raids definitely increased last week with the increased volatility due to recession fears. You could tell bears were just waiting on an event like that to ratchet up their MMD's.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Well-known German newspaper "Auto Motor und Sport" advises to buy a Tesla in comparison to a similar priced BMW (German, google translate):
"Same price, different worlds"
"In the performance duel there's little to gain for the BMW against the Tesla."

 

[Matias]

it’s outright dangerous to preach that economic cycles are dead.

Is that a thing again? Last time I heard that at the peak of the dot.com bubble. Needless to say, couple of years later it was evident that “New Economy” was still old economy with recessions and other boring stuff.

 

[kengchang]

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm assuming this is a metaphor for the hopelessness of life.... and the TSLA price action of the last week?

Sadly my general mood does roughly follow TSLA, which can be quite stressful and potentially lead to physical ailments. But no, I'm actually f'ed. Gonna give it another 15 and see if I can get up.

 

[capster]

Have a listen to Mark Blyth. I agree with him - Trump has the biggest monetary bazooka in the world.

ytCropper | Mark Blyth - Global Trumpism and the Future of the Global Economy

Yup. The question isn’t "Does Trump know what he’s doing?" (‘fraid so peeps, FWIW).

The big remaining question is: “How far do Trump and Xi throw the EU under the bus?"

 

[Nocturnal]

What happens to the massive shorting of Tesla if we hit a real economic downturn? Any thoughts?

 

[Driver Dave]

TSLA is rising, great! ...but probably just in line with macros.

APPL +2.5%
FB +1.6%
TSLA +2.5 %
NVDA +6%

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I sadly had to close the vast majority of my position in TSLA today(at a loss). Still very much believe in it and expect that those shares will someday be worth far, far more, but am buying a house and need the extra funds for additional improvements afterwards(much of this actually might go into Tesla solar and a little into a new charger).

 

[KarenRei]

But no, I'm actually f'ed. Gonna give it another 15 and see if I can get up.

I think Chumbawamba has some medical advice for you...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What happens to the massive shorting of Tesla if we hit a real economic downturn? Any thoughts?

It actually limits their ability to drive the stock price down a lot in the event of a economic downturn. They would have to hope that long term investors decide to sell out of their long term positions in order to get the stock price significantly lower. The only way they could apply significantly more pressure would be in Tesla went back to the markets with another secondary.

If the economy starts tanking but Tesla continues expanding then I doubt those long term investors would sell out.....I definitely think in a possible scenario of a recession they could hammer home how much money consumers could save with the Model 3 SR+ along with the Model Y just now hitting market, which would soak up demand due to the pent up demand for it.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

What happens to the massive shorting of Tesla if we hit a real economic downturn? Any thoughts?

Then the shorts make more money, in the short term. In a bear market or a bull market though, the important thing is relative performance. Money has to go somewhere and you have to consider customer demographics for Tesla. Look at Apple from 2007 - 2012 when the whole world was hurting - they basically grew 8x in that time after a 50% drop. Tesla will be less impacted by a downturn than say Ford or Toyota.

What will hurt them is if Tesla improve their margins significantly (ARK invest and others have predicted this will happen as early as Q3) - if Model 3 margins can increase from 17/18% to north of 25%, the shorts will be crushed. All the signals are that they indeed can actually do this, it's just a matter of when.

 

[capster]

What happens to the massive shorting of Tesla if we hit a real economic downturn? Any thoughts?

SSDD?

 

[Nocturnal]

It actually limits their ability to drive the stock price down a lot in the event of a economic downturn. They would have to hope that long term investors decide to sell out of their long term positions in order to get the stock price significantly lower. The only way they could apply significantly more pressure would be in Tesla went back to the markets with another secondary.

If the economy starts tanking but Tesla continues expanding then I doubt those long term investors would sell out.....I definitely think in a possible scenario of a recession they could hammer home how much money consumers could save with the Model 3 SR+ along with the Model Y just now hitting market, which would soak up demand due to the pent up demand for it.

More or less what I was thinking. A natural lower limit would be hit as the real longs will stay that way.

 

[NakedLong]

I found the Sandy Munroe interview to be interesting, but at the same time I had to wonder a bit. I was watching at 1.5x speed so maybe I missed something, though it didn't seem like it.

• FCA called out as the legacy manufacturer who is trying to actually develop in-house expertise
• somehow Tesla came in slightly behind iPace on power train. Given the high cost and poor efficiency that one is really hard to fathom
• BYD called out as making their own batteries for their own cars
• he thinks super capacitors are the future for EVs ("not just dry electrode, but super caps") because of using them as a buffer for regen and discharge. Talk about lack of repeatability, and you lose too much battery for a small buffer when a larger battery improves your regen & discharge rates w/ anecdote about a factory robot that did this (ignoring that the constraints are entirely different than with automotive). In other words, using super caps accentuates the problem. I guess maybe if your convinced that you must use them it becomes sort of self-fulfilling.
• the Model 3 is overdesigned to the point where it isn't any safer, it is just heavier (maybe he's right, but he's a cost engineer, not a safety engineer; then he goes on about "tanks are safe but poor efficiency" -- what, he thinks Tesla has sandbagged and could be far more efficient if only they stopped making it too heavy? He goes on to make other claims that might be true and might just be strawmen, there's no direct example or justification, just handwaving)
• worth its own point: I have often heard (doesn't make it true) that heavier vehicles fare better in accidents. And that really is the gist of his tank story. But then he goes on to say that having weight makes the vehicle less safe in an accident. I suppose if you added dark matter just for giggles, but if the weight was applied to structural integrity it might, you know, have a benefit? He then claims F1 cars are light for safety (as opposed to, say, for acceleration). When it comes to safety it really seems that Sandy Munroe just doesn't get it.
• Tesla should have used a "standard ordinary body" for the Model 3. Right... If it weighs more than a 328i then Tesla obviously did it wrong
• Model 3 margins should be much better and this is harming investors (he doesn't even try to connect the dots on this one)
• any design shop (he names two) could keep the exterior, keep the safety results, and be better cheaper. Tesla should be spending money on outsourcing!

well, that's it for the first half. I'm losing respect for Sandy.

I gave up listening after he went on about the body work and did not mention that Tesla will be doing a unicast body in the future. I guess most Tesla fans are better informed than him about the future, but when the Y comes out and he tears it down, there will probably be some good information coming out from him then perhaps.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I'm assuming this is a metaphor for the hopelessness of life.... and the TSLA price action of the last week?

He might have been making fun of us for how bad we are at staying on topic

 

[JRP3]

but no advertising has me wondering why people would suddenly decide to get solar?

No advertising? Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter 28M followers

 

[JRP3]

Tesla will be doing a unicast body in the future

Frame.

 

[Buckminster]

I would be surprised if there isn't a load cycle where you get some benefit from a supercap. If Tesla were to move towards slower charging batteries, to improve life and supercaps were to improve, they would start being used. Is regen braking limited by charging rate?