Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Yeah, the macros are down, but $TSLA is leading the charge.

Not even close. NVDA down at one point >15% - "worst day in a decade". Caterpillar down 8%.

 

[Tslynk67]

Not even close. NVDA down at one point >15% - "worst day in a decade". Caterpillar down 8%.

Nvidia was 17% down at one point - it's essentially what we got with Tesla the previous Friday...

 

[KarenRei]

Not even close. NVDA down at one point >15% - "worst day in a decade". Caterpillar down 8%.

Maybe Caterpillar should try exporting more bulldozers to Shanghai. Looks like they can use all they can get their hands on right about now

 

[humbaba]

Not even close. NVDA down at one point >15% - "worst day in a decade". Caterpillar down 8%.

Sorry I wasn't clearer: unlike others my focus is on $TSLA so I was referring to exactly and only what I said: $TSLA vs NASDAQ. So, the broader context, what I said isn't true. But looking at $TSLA vs NASDAQ as a whole it was trailing. Often I put such things as "$TSLA trailing NASDAQ by ~1%" which is better (more explicit) phrasing.

And of course $TSLA isn't trailing anymore (last I looked) given that sudden spike up.

 

[Don TLR]

Caught the small dip earlier @ 287.90, adding a few more when I can but I'm a small time collector.

 

[avoigt]

What about Tesla? Head of VW US Keogh says, “Right now market share is 50 percent Tesla and 50 percent everyone else. Who is going to win the other 50 percent? That breakthrough product has not arrived yet.”

VW Boss: Tesla Controls 50% Of EV Market, We're Aiming For The Rest

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

I can already see the headlines after ER on Wednesday :

" Tesla profits fall by X% on Q4" ...

Tesla seen forecasting first-quarter loss after Musk warning
TSLA 293.0933up -3.9467 (-1.33%)
Jan 28 (Reuters) - Wall Street analysts expect Tesla Inc(TSLA) to forecast a loss for the first quarter when it reports results on Wednesday, having changed their expectations for a profit after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk warned of a "very difficult" road ahead.

 

[Nocturnal]

1. Company scales and creates profitable and popular product. Makes large profit.
2. Company scales up again with new factory in new (larger) market and enters another market with profitable/popular new product.
3. OMG company is failing

What a world.

 

[HG Wells]

Hardware 3 may be shipping now to Europe.
Tesla Autopilot 3.0 Shipping Early? With Two Radars? Video

 

[Bet TSLA]

You have no idea how incredibly smug I feel having sold those $NVDA on Friday

Sometimes the magic works. Don't get too cocky!

 

[Curt Renz]

Ark Invest - January 14: Big Ideas 2019 — As Convergence Accelerates, Innovation Advances

Includes articles on "Battery Cost Tipping Points" and "Autonomous Taxi Networks".

Tesla is the overall largest holding within ARK's ETFs: ARK Innovation ETFs

 

[theschnell]

Bought more today at $290. Bears all think risk of loss in Q1 due to lack of demand. Primary reality is that its due to spending on construction of factory in China. As always, I'm not sure of short term movements, but fundamentals continue to improve each quarter.

 

[EVNow]

Talking about big buys at $250 - someone bought 100k+ purchases at 10:43 and 10:50 around $293. Tesla is now leading Nasdaq by about 0.75%.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Bought more today at $290. Bears all think risk of loss in Q1 due to lack of demand. Primary reality is that its due to spending on construction of factory in China. As always, I'm not sure of short term movements, but fundamentals continue to improve each quarter.

I’m tapped out unless I buy on margin(with the volatility post-ER, not willing to do that). I love that the current price action appears to be with expectation of negative guidance for Q1, since that isn’t at all what Elon said in that letter. Negative EPS for Q1 is basically priced in.

 

[EVNow]

Bought more today at $290. Bears all think risk of loss in Q1 due to lack of demand. Primary reality is that its due to spending on construction of factory in China. As always, I'm not sure of short term movements, but fundamentals continue to improve each quarter.

Spending on construction won't go into P&L. Q1 is difficult because of shipping/distribution issues. Tesla has spent Jan making cars for China/Europe and shipping them. They are yet to start delivering there - and US deliveries are seasonally low now.

Instead of comparing to previous quarter, we should start comparing to same quarter last year, like we do with all other companies to take seasonality into account.

 

[theschnell]

I’m tapped out unless I buy on margin(with the volatility post-ER, not willing to do that). I love that the current price action appears to be with expectation of negative guidance for Q1, since that isn’t at all what Elon said in that letter. Negative EPS for Q1 is basically priced in.

I bought with funds from when I had sold at $355. So its not "new" money.

 

[theschnell]

Spending on construction won't go into P&L. Q1 is difficult because of shipping/distribution issues. Tesla has spent Jan making cars for China/Europe and shipping them. They are yet to start delivering there - and US deliveries are seasonally low now.

Instead of comparing to previous quarter, we should start comparing to same quarter last year, like we do with all other companies to take seasonality into account.

My bad, you're totally correct on the construction spending not hitting P & L.

Well now I have to re-think the thesis a little. Yeah NA is tapped out on high ASP models so that hurts margins for Q1. I expect Europe demand will continue to ramp, but that won't hit until Q2.

So Q1 may be tight on profitability in part due to tight demand and lower ASP. That's not as fun . But I don't see any reason Europe and the rest of the world doesn't pull ASP higher for the next several quarters.

 

[anthonyj]

Saudis sold stake

EDIT: sorry don’t trust CNBC. They hedged the day before the drop

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

 

[shlokavica22]

Saudis sold stake

Saudi Arabia slashes exposure to Tesla amid share volatility


Edit:
The important part:
The arrangement meant that, although it still holds the shares, the PIF was left with little exposure if the stock price falls. Its potential gains are also capped if the stock rises, freezing its $2.9bn bet on the company.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Saudi Arabia slashes exposure to TSLA - FT

@ $290.29 now.

The country’s Public Investment Fund hedged most of its 4.9 per cent stake in Tesla with the help of bankers at JPMorgan Chase after the market closed on January 17.

......

The hedging arrangement has turned out to be well timed. A day after it was put in place, Mr Musk revealed Tesla was cutting 7 per cent of its workforce and warned that it was facing a “very difficult” period, and the stock fell..