Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I think some of the misconceptions about the way elon runs Tesla come from the fact that he has totally different goals. Elon is VERY concerned by, and VERY motivated by climate change. This changes his approach to running the company.

In a normal situation, with tesla growing as fast as it is, a normal CEO, with normal goals, would slow down a bit on the new products, and the new investment, and the new expansion stuff. They would allow a few quiet quarters of steady, predictable solid growth and delivery, with multiple consecutive quarters of growth, before 'changing gear' and moving faster/higher.

Elon does not think there is any time for that. Its inconvenient as hell, and worrying as hell to the market & stockholders, but if he sees a way to 10x the amount of cars Tesla produces, he will take it, without a seconds pause, even if it means the current quarter results look awful, or he knows the stock will crash hard short term, or if he knows the headlines will be abysmal.

I think EM is clever enough to know exactly how much chaos and confusion his CEO behavior creates, but he doesn't think there is time to do anything about it. The market wants steady, slow growth and profits, but Elons driven by climate change, and thus physics, and physics wont wait for the stockmarket to clam its nerves.

 

[sparcs]

pretty funny video. He stitched in pieces of the weibo videos to make it look like there was something new in his video. Looks like he's running out of content...

 

[Unpilot]

pretty funny video. He stitched in pieces of the weibo videos to make it look like there was something new in his video. Looks like he's running out of content...

Content is in the eye of the beholder. It's like the star hopper test. Maybe some see a water tower fly up a bit then land...I saw the first demonstration of a flight ready interplanetary engine!

I love those China factory build video's...I don't know about you but watching a history making event in almost real time never get's old.

 

[winfield100]

If you don’t understand how deeply in trouble the domestic automakers are, after watching this video, you for sure will

@ggies07 @KSilver2000
Please explain why you disagree.
Ford and GM spend ~$14.3 billion on advertising and dividends that is _not_ reinvested in R&D instead
Flat to declining sales last 10 years.
Essentially zero _net_ income
A few 100’s of $Billions in obligations
(Plus a lot of stranded assets, both intellectual and physical)

 

[sparcs]

Content is in the eye of the beholder. It's like the star hopper test. Maybe some see a water tower fly up a bit then land...I saw the first demonstration of a flight ready interplanetary engine!

I love those China factory build video's...I don't know about you but watching a history making event in almost real time never get's old.

I liked the previous one's when they had some new content about GF3.

Starhopper launching was a unique event. They weren't re-inserting old video from a third party in the middle of the launch.

 

[AndyH]

So, after getting on the board of our co-op here in Sweden I finally managed to get permission for EV-chargers. Last time I tried and failed was two years ago. This time was vastly different with no resistance at all. Everyone was convinced that EVs are the future now. Government incentives covers half of charger+installation cost so it's cheap for the co-op too.

Only problem is that while this was dragging on I sank half of the insufficient EV budget into Tsla at $278. Buying that white M3 will have to wait for a bit. No biggie though, just another first world problem.

 

[LTC_RRR]

Of course they are. But with trillions in tax dollars flowing into oil and gas subsidy every year, the biillions lost over a year from short positions turning sour are pocket change compared to the billions of dollars not lost by slowing down electrification and innovation by suppressing funding. Will be interesting how that plays out when tesla becomes more immune to the need of capital market access, but I bet a lot of early adopter customers like me bought in at $200-$350 range expecting this to go much higher within one or two years and including distance LEAPS and now were not able to upgrade their 2016 Model X with a 2019 Model X Raven. That is revenue forgone because of shorting keeping the stock artificially below value.

trillions in tax dollars flowing into oil and gas subsidy every year

I have to throw the BS flag here. While I am long Tesla, appreciate the urgency of the climate crisis, and own a 2019 Model 3, I have problems with this number that is approximately three orders of magnitude overstated.

A quick check of the web shows the high end of one estimate of subsidies to the U.S. oil and gas industry as $52 billion.

The trillions figure appears to come from an IMF study touted by Rolling Stone magazine which includes real subsidies (actual supply costs from provable, supportable figures) and estimated environmental costs (e.g., the allowing the fossil fuels industry to price their products only for actual costs and NOT including the "costs" to the environment, and health, etc., whose valuation is, in the words of the IMF report, " much more contentious than for supply costs".

The "subsidy" in the case of these environmental costs results from not charging fossil fuel prices which would include both real supply costs and estimated environmental costs. So, according to the IMF report, "undercharging for the true social costs of consumption" becomes a "subsidy" (but does not become a subsidy of tax dollars).

The IMF study does address tax dollars by including in the "subsidy" the opportunity cost of failing to apply VAT taxes to all levels of the fossil fuel consumption cycle. However, these are not direct subsidies of tax dollars, but, rather, the foregoing of additional tax revenues as a result of not levying new taxes.

Further, the quoted statement applies the IMF totals to "subsidies" to the oil and gas industry; the IMF study actually addresses global energy subsidies and associated fuel pricing.

"By fuel, coal remains the largest source of subsidies (44 percent), followed by petroleum (41 percent), natural gas (10 percent), and electricity output (4 percent)."​

I could go on and on, but it should be evident that it is not productive when discussing apples to introduce orange-based arguments.

I am NOT a short; I am NOT anti environmental; I AM in favor of truth in argument and the notion that Oil and Gas industry includes all global fossil fuels and that "trillions of tax dollars" include tax dollars conflated with contentious, soft estimates of opportunity costs is false and misleading hyperbole and does more damage than help to the cause it purports to advance.

 

[AZRI11]

Tesla needs a full time CEO (one that doesn't have other directorships or work for other companies). Not a CEO that exacts a tax on its employees and customers, but a CEO that understands both the purpose and customers of Tesla. What's more, Tesla needs to fix exponentially accumulated errors caused by not having a full time CEO. That cold hard fact doesn't care what the name of that CEO was or is. If it had been Elon for the last 7 years, Tesla would have had less accumulated errors. If it becomes Elon now, it could start to be fixed now, but since he's the one who had a hand in many of the problems, someone better than him would be better to fix it. By better, I mean more of an engineer, more of an inventor, more of a manager, more of a manufacturer, more of a persuasion expert, etc. There aren't many if any people like that. We know Tesla has extensive toxic waste snobbery formerly from Apple ruining Tesla. Tesla needs someone who is able to take out all the snobs and keep and rehire the good employees. We learned the snobs only cared about themselves and their cliques, causing great harm to the good employees. It's almost as if Elon was unsuccessful at High School, but rather than become a successful adult, he's attempting to become successful at High School again. I know: I've been that (briefly, til I caught myself). It's time to find the good things in life, and jettison the failures. If Elon wanted to become that anti-snob, he's not a natural at it: he himself is a snob, and hangs out in a toxic Hollywood snob atmosphere. I'm totally agnostic who the full-time CEO actually is if they meet the specifications I stated above, but if it were Elon (and in many ways he could be one of the best choices), he would have to totally move out of Hollywood and its toxic snob culture.

Edit: Some voted "disagree". I realize that the cognitive dissonance set up by the existing situation will cause many people who support the current situation to disagree. There's also cognitive dissonance existing in many of the people who divested from Tesla but still supported it in the past. However, there's also people who would support Tesla improving. And there is, of course, an unfortunate number of entities and people who are against the idea of electric vehicles and Tesla in particular. Distinguishing between those toxic fanboys, toxic enemies, and people who would actually support improving and fixing Tesla can sometimes be difficult when someone does the stuff that needs to be done to right their problems.

You have described Jeff Bezos to a T

 

[jerry33]

I have to throw the BS flag here. While I am long Tesla, appreciate the urgency of the climate crisis, and own a 2019 Model 3, I have problems with this number that is approximately three orders of magnitude overstated.

A quick check of the web shows the high end of one estimate of subsidies to the U.S. oil and gas industry as $52 billion.

Sort of. If you add the money spent on Middle East wars, it quickly adds up. Now, I know the next argument: Not much oil used in the U.S. comes from the Middle East anymore, but that misses the point that the international oil companies still use a lot of oil from the Middle East and they put considerable pressure to keep the wars going. In addition, our allies (or what used to be our allies--not so sure anymore) get a lot of oil from the Middle East so we're paying for that too. My feeling is that if the oil companies want war in the Middle East, they should pay the cost for it. That would put gas prices where they need to be.

 

[EVNow]

Sort of. If you add the money spent on Middle East wars, it quickly adds up. Now, I know the next argument: Not much oil used in the U.S. comes from the Middle East anymore, but that misses the point that the international oil companies still use a lot of oil from the Middle East and they put considerable pressure to keep the wars going. In addition, our allies (or what used to be our allies--not so sure anymore) get a lot of oil from the Middle East so we're paying for that too. My feeling is that if the oil companies want war in the Middle East, they should pay the cost for it. That would put gas prices where they need to be.

Not just that - oil is very fungible. if any source of oil shuts down, the general price of oil goes up because the countries buying oil fro that source now compete to get oil from other sources.

So, for eg., if we didn't protect KSA and the monarchy their falls shutting down the oil supply, oil prices will shoot up disrupting the economy of all countries.

 

[Tslynk67]

So, I had a BBQ with some colleagues a few weeks ago and my ex-boss said he was going to buy a Kona. He's currently got a BMW 7 Series and doesn't see the need for a big car any more. I told him to at least test-drive a Model 3 and that he'd appreciate the Supercharger network.

Just got a message he'd ordered the Tesla

But goddamit, didn't tell me beforehand, so without my referral code

Still, more and more people I know ordering or thinking about it - this is a new phenomenon in the last 6 months.

 

[ggies07]

@ggies07 @KSilver2000
Please explain why you disagree.
Ford and GM spend ~$14.3 billion on advertising and dividends that is _not_ reinvested in R&D instead
Flat to declining sales last 10 years.
Essentially zero _net_ income
A few 100’s of $Billions in obligations
(Plus a lot of stranded assets, both intellectual and physical)

Oh, I didnt mean to, I meant to have hit the like icon. I actually like the video and shared it other places. I was on late last night trying to stay awake with my daughter's birthday slumber party. Haha. I have corrected this error.

 

[Lessmog]

What a random rant while Tesla is growing at the fastest pace of any manufacturer of its size in history and executing spectacularly against its goals and against the competition.

Elon is out-executing all of the competition by a huge margin in all of his companies and all of his industries. I think a Tesla insider like Jerome who has trained from Elon first hand for ten years would also do a good job as CEO, but Jerome's doing just fine in his current President/COO role anyway.

I would like Tesla to invest in a dedicated customer/media/investor communications team, but hopefully something like this could be headed by Robyn.

Actually needed to unmask in order to get what the commotion was about. But now I do, thanks all.

 

[EVMeister]

Still, more and more people I know ordering or thinking about it - this is a new phenomenon in the last 6 months.

I just saw my first Model 3 local to me. I know from scouring forums that there are others where I live, but first time I've seen one parked up in a driveway around here. I'm pretty sure the people owning it used to drive a Porsche as well. Maybe they've still got it in the garage, not sure. Considering the car has just been unleashed in the UK it's nice to be seeing them already. I've only ever seen one other I-PACE around here and that's been around for a lot longer!

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT: Hurricane Dorian blew up overnight to become a strong Cat. 5 cyclone, with sustained winds of 185 mph (298 kmh) and gusts to 220 mph (354 kmh) after growing to the “strongest hurricane in modern records” for the northwestern Bahamas. May God help the people in the path of this monster storm.

Hurricane Dorian makes landfall in Bahamas as Category 5 with 185 mph winds; Orlando back in cone; hurricane watch issued for Florida coast

Climate change deniers often claim that global warming didn't cause hurricanes, that we had hurricanes before. No, hurricanes didn't use to go from a Cat.2 to Cat.5 in under 24 hrs. That's what a +1 C sea surface temperature (SST) buys you, and that's just one effect of warmer oceans.

This isn't going to stop, or slow down. The world is headed towards +3.6 C increase by the end of this century. May God help the people of planet Earth.

Regards,
Lodger

EDIT: Dorian is currently projected to stall over the Bahamas for SEVERAL DAYS. With Category 5 winds dwelling for that length of time over one location, this storm threatens to erase this island nation from existence. Storm surge projected to be 18-23 feet. Highest elevation in the Bahamas is 30 feet.

 

[Causalien]

Also note this incident by Team Trump:



Increasing China's tariffs on the day of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China was IMO an insult of such a magnitude in an Asian cultural context, that I hope that Chinese leadership is going to keep their cool and doesn't escalate the trade war to really hurt the U.S.

One thing to note on all these back and fourth. We can be thankful that China still has some faith in USA. The tariffs are still targeting only Trump supporting states. Wait and see if a Democratic candidate will do the same.

Dread the day when the Tariffs are going to happen on all products. EV from California for example.

Even though 2 of the Democratic candidates looks pretty good on paper, their openly anti China stance is quite unpalatable for the businessman inside me leaving only 1 potential democratic candidate to be able to solve this trade war.

Anyway, we now enter the phase where consumer products gets tariffed. Main street start to feel the pain and people start to tighten their belt.

 

[Causalien]

I would like to reiterate the importance of Causalien’s observation. Not one single FacePalmTweet from 45 has been more of a Holy Smokes! moment for me than was that absolute denial from China. AND a moment that is not immediately apparent to non-Asian watchers (my forte is Japan, not China, but the cultures are similar enough in this regard to make no difference).

So what? Are there important consequences? I believe so. We can take this as a watershed; looking back in two or five years I will say we can point to this moment when the Chinese stopped even pretending to be negotiating with the current DC Administration. Anything from their side between now and next November is going to be the equivalent of a holding pattern.

This by no means is to say that Beijing is going to join the ABT crowd. A Sanders or a Warren most definitely is not hugely more palatable to China than is 45, in any way other than the admittedly important one that at least even those two moderately xenophobic candidates are not off their rockers.

I was going to place this post, and move Causalien’s, to “Political” but I think it is apposite to the market, thus here it is.

Ya thanks.

I usually separate politics from trades and business. Politics is just a conversation landmine. However, Trump's trade war made it impossible to do business without talking about politics. We now have to forecast and dissect Trump's twits in order to forecast trades (this is ridiculous). I don't like it, but just have to soldier through.

 

[StealthP3D]

May I retweet the first picture, which is amazing by the way?

Sure! Tweet away. I don't do Twitter. Or Facebook.

 

[EVNow]

I strongly expect to see X/S production increases at some point later this year. They can't keep running a deficit and burning through inventory forever - and S/X sales keep rising.

The current priority should be to sell all the pre-Raven inventory. ER said "majority" of pre-raven inventory is sold. So, a lot of it is still left. End of s&x Q2 inventory was ~10k - they can easily bring it down to ~5k or lower. Unlike 3, they can truly make s&x "made to order".

When Tesla adds another shift we'll know they want to increase production. Otherwise it will remain ~15k per quarter.

Regardless, though... everyone should be able to agree that Tesla continues to target Model 3 production increases at Fremont. And thus even 78k Model 3s this quarter would be a disappointment, as that would merely mean holding steady at the end-of-Q2 rate.

Was there an official end of Q2 run rate ? We also don't know where Panasonic is in getting the battery production above 30 GWh rate. Seems to me 7k/wk is the max rate at Fremont - considering they are making space for Y. That would be ~84k per 12 week quarter - leaving a week for maintenance. May be they can squeeze a bit more by the end of the year - but 78k to 80k is probably what we should expect in Q3. I would not be disappointed with 78k.

 

[Unpilot]

OT: Hurricane Dorian blew up overnight to become a strong Cat. 5 cyclone, with sustained winds of 185 mph (298 kmh) and gusts to 220 mph (354 kmh) after growing to the “strongest hurricane in modern records” for the northwestern Bahamas. May God help the people in the path of this monster storm.

Hurricane Dorian makes landfall in Bahamas as Category 5 with 185 mph winds; Orlando back in cone; hurricane watch issued for Florida coast

View attachment 449129

Climate change deniers often claim that global warming didn't cause hurricanes, that we had hurricanes before. No, hurricanes didn't use to go from a Cat.2 to Cat.5 in under 24 hrs. That's what a +1 C sea surface temperature (SST) buys you, and that's just one effect of warmer oceans.

This isn't going to stop, or slow down. The world is headed towards +3.6 C increase by the end of this century. May God help the people of planet Earth.

Regards,
Lodger

EDIT: Dorian is currently projected to stall over the Bahamas for SEVERAL DAYS. With Category 5 winds dwelling for that length of time over one location, this storm threatens to erase this island nation from existence. Storm surge projected to be 18-23 feet. Highest elevation in the Bahamas is 30 feet.

I have flown into Marsh harbor,Northern Eluthra and Exuma all are in the direct path of this monster. The people there are some of the nicest folks I have met in my travels. Man I worry for them!