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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Antares Nebula
Active Member
Still, a lot of misleading headlines out there, even from CNBC:
China will exempt multiple Tesla models from auto tariffs
I wonder sometimes with the news these days, if it's FUD or just incompetence.
China will exempt multiple Tesla models from auto tariffs
I wonder sometimes with the news these days, if it's FUD or just incompetence.
But, but, but.... Joni says Teslas rust through after 4 weeks of winter! /s
Serous question though: did you do some extra protection given your weather/salt situation? Extra protective film, ceramic coat, etc. Anything like that?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
FUD is their core competence.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The same thing I do with all my cars - put some quality auto wax on the painted surfaces. I also rinse off the accumulated road de-icer whenever the weather warms above freezing.
Agreed it is very difficult to tell how much of the Q1 M3 slowdown was due to logistical problems, however my gut feeling is that most of the issues were logistical as there were still reservation holders in EU and China who would have likely taken a car as soon as it was available.
I doubt Q3 will show the same tax pullback as we are heading into the seasonally busy sales period and the reduction in credit is lower in dollar terms.
We do have new RHD markets opening up which could cause limited new logistical problems as those regions are not yet used to delivering the higher M3 volumes.
So, no particular protection for the underbody and other parts that could rust under corrosive conditions? The 3 is not all made of Al; I wonder how well protected the steels parts are, outside of California.
But anti-rust is best applied immediately -- I had a car that had been Dinitrol treated after two years, and in the end there was literally NOT ONE piece of metal not totally rusted, so well protected from washing.
Sold it for the value of the almost new tires.
Even applied right away, you would likely have had the same experience. I've not seen an aftermarket anti-rust treatment that actually worked and some just add a lot of weight to the car.So, no particular protection for the underbody and other parts that could rust under corrosive conditions? The 3 is not all made of Al; I wonder how well protected the steels parts are, outside of California.
But anti-rust is best applied immediately -- I had a car that had been Dinitrol treated after two years, and in the end there was literally NOT ONE piece of metal not totally rusted, so well protected from washing.
pyromatter
Member
May I retweet the first picture, which is amazing by the way?
BYD has cut its 2019 NEV sales guidance from +70-80% yoy (420k-450k) to +10% yoy (270k). In 1H19 BYD sold 141k NEVs (96k EVs, 45k PHEVs).
This was likely mostly due to China halving its NEV subsidies from July this year (and cut completely for cars below 250km NEDC range), but I expect has also been impacted by the trade war and weaker economy.
The next 6 to 12 months will be difficult for Chinese EV makers and I think only the strong players with compelling products and positive gross margins will survive. China's EV policy is in a transition phase where it is moving from a carrot to a stick approach. I think next year EV sales will likely be driven by market forces together with forced EV quotas (with ZEV credit system) for auto makers, tax exemptions for EVs and ICE bans/license restrictions in many areas, rather than the huge subsidies (but still far less than ICE subsidies) which have driven China EV sales historically.
This reduction in short term China EV growth plans is likely the main reason for lower battery raw material prices this year (except Nickel which is up significantly on Indonesia issues), and I would guess has also likely allowed Tesla to get a good deal on its GF3 cell supply deal.
This was likely mostly due to China halving its NEV subsidies from July this year (and cut completely for cars below 250km NEDC range), but I expect has also been impacted by the trade war and weaker economy.
The next 6 to 12 months will be difficult for Chinese EV makers and I think only the strong players with compelling products and positive gross margins will survive. China's EV policy is in a transition phase where it is moving from a carrot to a stick approach. I think next year EV sales will likely be driven by market forces together with forced EV quotas (with ZEV credit system) for auto makers, tax exemptions for EVs and ICE bans/license restrictions in many areas, rather than the huge subsidies (but still far less than ICE subsidies) which have driven China EV sales historically.
This reduction in short term China EV growth plans is likely the main reason for lower battery raw material prices this year (except Nickel which is up significantly on Indonesia issues), and I would guess has also likely allowed Tesla to get a good deal on its GF3 cell supply deal.
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Wow, I missed the Indonesia news... moving forward the export ban on raw ore to the end of December? That's going to throw things for a loop. Couldn't they wait until, you know, there's actually sufficient refining capacity in the country?
Have you seen a breakdown of how this will affect battery-grade nickel sulfate prices, as opposed to ferronickel? The latter is easier to find market quotes on, but since they're processed differently, and this is a processing capacity issue...
It's difficult to know what the impact of this will be, but I think there is a risk this could be a real headache for Tesla. The bulk of Tesla's cathode powder comes from Sumitomo who has much of their Nickel supply in Indonesia.
The Nickel Sulphate market is only small at around 80kt Nickel content vs the 2,000kt Nickel market. But only a minority of Nickel mines have a grade that can be economically used as supply for sulphate conversion. Generally I think Nickel sulphate sells for around 20% premium to its Nickel content.
Currently I think this would put Tesla's Nickel sulphate raw materials costs at $1k per SR+ car. Compared to around $500 Lithium Hydroxide and around $60 Cobalt. The Cathode powder likely has around 30% price premium over its raw materials costs, so total Cathode powder cost for a SR+ battery is likely now around $2k.
However it is likely that Sumitomo and Panasonic both absorb part of any short term moves in raw material prices.
The biggest issue is just where Sumitomo will get new high grade Nickel supply at short notice if it is no longer able to access its supplies in Indonesia.
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Ulmo
Active Member
Tesla needs a full time CEO (one that doesn't have other directorships or work for other companies). Not a CEO that exacts a tax on its employees and customers, but a CEO that understands both the purpose and customers of Tesla. What's more, Tesla needs to fix exponentially accumulated errors caused by not having a full time CEO. That cold hard fact doesn't care what the name of that CEO was or is. If it had been Elon for the last 7 years, Tesla would have had less accumulated errors. If it becomes Elon now, it could start to be fixed now, but since he's the one who had a hand in many of the problems, someone better than him would be better to fix it. By better, I mean more of an engineer, more of an inventor, more of a manager, more of a manufacturer, more of a persuasion expert, etc. There aren't many if any people like that. We know Tesla has extensive toxic waste snobbery formerly from Apple ruining Tesla. Tesla needs someone who is able to take out all the snobs and keep and rehire the good employees. We learned the snobs only cared about themselves and their cliques, causing great harm to the good employees. It's almost as if Elon was unsuccessful at High School, but rather than become a successful adult, he's attempting to become successful at High School again. I know: I've been that (briefly, til I caught myself). It's time to find the good things in life, and jettison the failures. If Elon wanted to become that anti-snob, he's not a natural at it: he himself is a snob, and hangs out in a toxic Hollywood snob atmosphere. I'm totally agnostic who the full-time CEO actually is if they meet the specifications I stated above, but if it were Elon (and in many ways he could be one of the best choices), he would have to totally move out of Hollywood and its toxic snob culture.
Edit: Some voted "disagree". I realize that the cognitive dissonance set up by the existing situation will cause many people who support the current situation to disagree. There's also cognitive dissonance existing in many of the people who divested from Tesla but still supported it in the past. However, there's also people who would support Tesla improving. And there is, of course, an unfortunate number of entities and people who are against the idea of electric vehicles and Tesla in particular. Distinguishing between those toxic fanboys, toxic enemies, and people who would actually support improving and fixing Tesla can sometimes be difficult when someone does the stuff that needs to be done to right their problems.
Edit: Some voted "disagree". I realize that the cognitive dissonance set up by the existing situation will cause many people who support the current situation to disagree. There's also cognitive dissonance existing in many of the people who divested from Tesla but still supported it in the past. However, there's also people who would support Tesla improving. And there is, of course, an unfortunate number of entities and people who are against the idea of electric vehicles and Tesla in particular. Distinguishing between those toxic fanboys, toxic enemies, and people who would actually support improving and fixing Tesla can sometimes be difficult when someone does the stuff that needs to be done to right their problems.
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What a random rant while Tesla is growing at the fastest pace of any manufacturer of its size in history and executing spectacularly against its goals and against the competition.
Elon is out-executing all of the competition by a huge margin in all of his companies and all of his industries. I think a Tesla insider like Jerome who has trained from Elon first hand for ten years would also do a good job as CEO, but Jerome's doing just fine in his current President/COO role anyway.
I would like Tesla to invest in a dedicated customer/media/investor communications team, but hopefully something like this could be headed by Robyn.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Show me another full time CEO of any company who puts in 80-120 hour work weeks. Your rant is completely uniformed on many levels, that's why you are getting disagrees.
Not only that but also puts his money where his mouth is. So many other CEOs just try to get the biggest golden parachute.
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