Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

But Anton Wahlman just came out with an article saying the numbers prove Tesla is on track for a disappointing 97K

i guess that is this (I refuse to click on it and see!!)

I love how $TSLAQ now pitch 97k quarterly deliveries as "disappointing", in a couple of years 250k will be "underwhelming" in 5 years, 1million will be the newt "demand cliff".

Idiots. Actually no, not idiots, at least not Anton Class Action Wahlman, criminal, straight-up manipulation effort.

 

[mrdoubleb]

i guess that is this (I refuse to click on it and see!!)

View attachment 450686

I love how $TSLAQ now pitch 97k quarterly deliveries as "disappointing", in a couple of years 250k will be "underwhelming" in 5 years, 1million will be the newt "demand cliff".

Idiots. Actually no, not idiots, at least not Anton Class Action Wahlman, criminal, straight-up manipulation effort.

Given the US and EU data we have (well... US is more like an estimate), I would say we are heading to a +10% increase in deliveries based on the first 2 months (overall S/3/X) in these markets. On top of this we have news of deliveries having started in RHD countries in volume.

If China holds, we should be comfortably above 100k.

 

[RobStark]

 

[bhtooefr]

WOW, just WOW. Does every other automaker do this? Trying to rip off customers in every way they can.
I really did not know this. Cause Model 3 is my first car and going forward Tesla will be my only choice.

Just when I thought I can't love Tesla more, I fell deeper in love.

THAT is a Porsche thing, they're very well known for that, including on their ICE cars.

I mean all legacy automakers nickel and dime you on options, but nothing like what Porsche does.

 

[KarenRei]

28,000 for Europe is too optimistic. Q2 had 22,745 registrations, so my estimate is between 6% up (24,000) and 10% up (25,000) for this Q.

Too optimistic with two new markets filling out their backlog?

 

[Cobbler]

So...
Tesla didn't get killed by the Volt
Tesla didn't get killed by the iPace
Tesla didn't get killed by the e-Tron
Tesla didn't get killed by the eQC
Tesla didn't get killed by the Taycan

Hmmmm... I'm seeing a pattern here

Big thank you to LG electronics for keeping Tesla alive

 

[Tslynk67]

Given the US and EU data we have (well... US is more like an estimate), I would say we are heading to a +10% increase in deliveries based on the first 2 months (overall S/3/X) in these markets. On top of this we have news of deliveries having started in RHD countries in volume.

If China holds, we should be comfortably above 100k.

My WAG was 103k some back in July and I'm sticking with that.

97k would also be fine, but if we want the SP moved, we need the perception to be a "beat"

 

[Prunesquallor]

Well, the battery is whatever it takes to get those specs but the way it uses energy is unforgivable. It even has the advantage of a two-speed transmission which should make it more efficient, not less!

This just highlights that electric motors and controllers are not commodity items, Tesla has some secret sauce (and it's not minor).

It illustrates the systems integration expertise found in the Teslas - similar sized batteries, similar aerodynamics, but much better overall performance.

I found this Motor Trend article very interesting. Lars Moravy, Vineet Mehta and David Zhang are having a little engineering discussion with the press (after the Model S range increase earlier this year).
EXCLUSIVE: 2019 Tesla Model S Review: From SF to LA on One Charge? - MotorTrend

"They [Moravy, et. al.] tick through a few of the announced battery sizes and ranges for European EVs headed our way, and their ratios are universally terrible. The reason why, the trio emphasizes, is because they're not treating their cars as synergistic wholes."

 

[Tslynk67]

THAT is a Porsche thing, they're very well known for that, including on their ICE cars.

I mean all legacy automakers nickel and dime you on options, but nothing like what Porsche does.

Tesla used to do it a bit, back in the old days, nowhere near as bad mind. Then over time they just kept merging stuff into bigger and bigger bundles until most of it became standard equipment. From this perspective, base-model Tesla are phenomenally well equipped.

 

[StealthP3D]

So...
Tesla didn't get killed by the Volt
Tesla didn't get killed by the iPace
Tesla didn't get killed by the e-Tron
Tesla didn't get killed by the eQC
Tesla didn't get killed by the Taycan

Hmmmm... I'm seeing a pattern here

Someone show the pattern to Anton Wahlman, please! He was pretty sure anything with a working battery and motor would decimate Tesla!

 

[Fact Checking]

Big thank you to LG electronics for keeping Tesla alive

Apparently the inside story behind German carmaker battery woes is the following one, according to a June article of the German Manager Magazine, with high level sources at VW and other carmakers:

Volkswagen: Herbert Diess elektrifiziert VW im Eiltempo

'Und die ersten Investitionen haben sich nicht gelohnt für LG und Samsung. Sie haben Milliarden in Pilotanlagen und die ersten Werke investiert; und dann haben die Europäer über Jahre weniger abgenommen als versprochen. "Die haben Angst, dass wieder das Gleiche passiert", umschreibt ein VW-Einkäufer die Gefahrenlage.'
​

Translation:

Volkswagen: Herbert Diess electrifies VW in a hurry

'And the first investments were not worth it for LG and Samsung. They have invested billions in pilot plants and the first production plants; and then the European carmakers have purchased fewer batteries than promised, for years. "They are afraid that the same thing happens again," describes a VW supply chain manager the dangerous situation.'​

Apparently LG Chem and Samsung had big plans to expand 2-3 years ago, and did expand, but the ICE makers didn't follow through with their rosy EV plans and didn't buy the capacity they promised ...

Not that easy to build and sell those Tesla killers?

NOW they all want to rush battery production, but I believe primarily due to the CO₂ penalties in Europe which are upcoming in 2021. Only VW appears to be thinking beyond those levels.

 

[Lessmog]

Someone show the pattern to Anton Wahlman, please! He was pretty sure anything with a working battery and motor would decimate Tesla!

What?! Anton has an ELECTRIC TOOTHBRUSH?? Please don't tell that other guy he is outdone.

 

[Artful Dodger]

At the Close yesterday, the Mid-BB for TSLA sat at $223.53 and at 06:00 ET in Pre-market trading TSLA was at $223.00

I expect the Bears to make an early attempt to push the SP down, to keep it clear of the Mid-BB which has acted as support these last 3 trading days.

Will be against headwinds for Shorties though, as Macros seem strong this morning:

Nasdaq 100 Futures - Sep 19
7,816.50 +93.75 +1.21%
Real-time derived 06:28:07
Currency in USD​

 

[jerry33]

I don’t get the 2 speed. What did they get for it?

More dealer revenue once the warranty expires.

 

[jhm]

Well, the battery is whatever it takes to get those specs but the way it uses energy is unforgivable. It even has the advantage of a two-speed transmission which should make it more efficient, not less!

This just highlights that electric motors and controllers are not commodity items, Tesla has some secret sauce (and it's not minor).

Maybe the rules of physics are just different.

 

[Rb48888]

Hey Guyz, Anyone know how I can invest in this hot new car company called “Other”?

Pretty impressive for a no-name brand - I haven’t even seen any ads?

UK electric car registrations surge in August but it’s a long road to zero and barriers must be addressed - SMMT

 

[elasalle]

OK. so why was Taycan demoed in Germany, China and Niagara Falls Canada? Would make a lot of sense for Detroit, Cali, NY in US be one of the locations.
So does this have to do with not yet getting EPA ratings?

 

[Tslynk67]

Confirmation of the August M3 sales: Tesla Model 3 was August's third best-selling car

Explains the lowish InsideEV estimates then and bodes very well for the quarter!

Tesla Model 3 was August's third best-selling car

Edit: didn't see this yet on CNBC headlines...

 

[elasalle]

Hey Guyz, Anyone know how I can invest in this hot new car company called “Other”?

Pretty impressive for a no-name brand - I haven’t even seen any ads?


View attachment 450710
UK electric car registrations surge in August but it’s a long road to zero and barriers must be addressed - SMMT

Tesla Model 3 was August's third best-selling car
Tesla does not split its sales figures by country, and third-place in the UK’s rundown of last month’s best-sellers simply lists the car as “Other”. But Auto Express understands the Model 3 found more homes in August than the Ford Focus, Mercedes A-Class and Ford Kuga, which were the fourth, fifth and sixth best-selling models respectively.

 

[KarenRei]

Best comments from Twitter re: Porsche's infotainment system:

"About as bad as some of HP's printer touchscreens."

Re: "... I'm already getting frustrated and I'm not even in the thing.": "I thought it was my network connection "

"guaranteed thrill ride for every blackberry fan."

"How much for the not buffering circles package?"

"Nice car for 1997..."

"Did they use a Pentium II processor?"

"Ergonomics and human factors is dead."