Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

My thought exactly - if the trend for MS & MX continues into Sept, I'm hoping we see a better ASP in Q3 over Q2 (despite more SR+ sales).

Taking Norway as a barometer, we're seeing roughly 60% M3's as SR+ so far this quarter - so still a reasonable amount of LR's, & P's.

I suppose the UK is all P & LR, I can't remember. S & P are up, but nowhere near where this time last year.

I'd personally be surprised if the ASP is higher, but who knows, we're used to surprises, normally they tend to be unpleasant ones though.

 

[Causalien]

Anyone think there may be some high up Chinese officials with skin in the market who may be pulling strings to make some easy dollars to launder? This is getting ridiculous.

It's more likely a delay and appease tactic to wait out the Trump administration. So they can do what they are about to do to Hong Kong.

Art of war. Appear the opposite of what you intend to do.

 

[SpaceCash]

As others have already said, The Taycan release just underscores how damn far ahead Tesla still is, and induces one to fall doubly back in love with Tesla. I appreciate that Porsche seemingly dropped their genuine, best-EV-they-could-come-up-with, kudos to them for that, but it just sucks terribly compared to the S.
Some people are raving about the looks and I can't really cosign that; it is not particularly attractive to me. The BMW i8 looks way more interesting and sexier than the Taycan to my eye.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

So here is the Taycan's official energy consumption stats, from official Porsche's China website

Taycan Turbo:
Energy Consumption: 26.0 kwh/100km (260 wh/km or 418 wh/mile)
Battery Size: 93.4 kwh
Useable Battery: 83.7 kwh

Taycan Turbo S:
Energy Consumption: 27.0 kwh/100km (270 wh/km or 434 wh/mile)
Battery Size: 93.4 kwh
Useable Battery: 83.7 kwh

Here comes the bomb
Taycan Turbo actual range: 83.7/26.0*100 = 322 km = 200 miles
Taycan Turbo S actual range: 83.7/27.0*100 = 310 km = 192.6 miles

What?
Seriously?

 

[Fact Checking]

I don’t get the 2 speed. What did they get for it? It should have been higher top speed or more efficient.

I believe that's how they managed to get slightly higher top speed than Tesla's, with a worse powertrain and a smaller battery. It probably also helps 100 mph -> 150 mph acceleration, which helps on the track.

For everyday driving or straight line acceleration it's more of a hindrance, and I bet they'll drop the 2-speed transmission once they try to duplicate 3 motor Roadster 2 performance in a few years.

 

[Fact Checking]

Here comes the bomb
Taycan Turbo actual range: 83.7/26.0*100 = 322 km = 200 miles
Taycan Turbo S actual range: 83.7/27.0*100 = 310 km = 192.6 miles

What?
Seriously?

The "up to 280 miles range, city driving, WLTP" language during the unveil and the brutal regen max was IMHO a dead giveaway that Porsche is lying about actual range.

Technically a Model 3 has up to 606 miles of range, "careful driving", WLTP:

Tesla Model 3 travels 606 miles on a single charge in new hypermiling record - Electrek​

 

[hobbes]

Europe: 28,000
U.S. ~ 55,000
Canada ~ 7000
China 8000
ROW: 4000 (Australia/NZ ~2000, Hong Kong, Taiwan, S. Korea, Japan 2000)
Total: 102,000

105,000 seems attainable. Canada, China & ROW all seem like they could be higher. US will be hard to delivery much more than 24,000 in a month.

GAAP Ops even to +100mm
cash flow +625mm
COGS down, margins up
Almost 6 billion in the bank and on track for 6.5 billion by the end of the year.

28,000 for Europe is too optimistic. Q2 had 22,745 registrations, so my estimate is between 6% up (24,000) and 10% up (25,000) for this Q.

 

[Fact Checking]

The market has priced in reportedly driver in a crash blaming AP but actually looking down at their phone...

And eating and drinking:

Tesla driver was eating and drinking during publicized Autopilot crash, NTSB reports - Electrek​

 

[Mobius484]

So here is the Taycan's official energy consumption stats, from official Porsche's China website

Taycan Turbo:
Energy Consumption: 26.0 kwh/100km (260 wh/km or 418 wh/mile)
Battery Size: 93.4 kwh
Useable Battery: 83.7 kwh

View attachment 450652

Taycan Turbo S:
Energy Consumption: 27.0 kwh/100km (270 wh/km or 434 wh/mile)
Battery Size: 93.4 kwh
Useable Battery: 83.7 kwh

View attachment 450653



Here comes the bomb
Taycan Turbo actual range: 83.7/26.0*100 = 322 km = 200 miles
Taycan Turbo S actual range: 83.7/27.0*100 = 310 km = 192.6 miles

What?
Seriously?

That extra tranny gear must be heavy AF...

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I believe that's how they managed to get slightly higher top speed than Tesla's, with a worse powertrain and a smaller battery. It probably also helps 100 mph -> 150 mph acceleration, which helps on the track.

For everyday driving or straight line acceleration it's more of a hindrance, and I bet they'll drop the 2-speed transmission once they try to duplicate 3 motor Roadster 2 performance in a few years.

A minor correction.
The top speed of Model S Performance is 163 mph, 2 mph higher than Taycan's 161.

 

[Tslynk67]

To be clear...love Franz’s designs. But wouldn’t mind a little Porsche design influence either. (Actually The front of the Model 3 feels very Porschey to me). (Yes, that’s a word, look it up!).

Model 3 is a lovely car inside and out.

Model S is a stunning car externally, interior is functional, but looking dated and (unless something changes recently), the quality of the material is poor - the flimsy cover in the dashboard always springs to mind.

Model X is an, erm, acquired taste externally and same applied internally, could be better.

 

[StealthP3D]

Here comes the bomb
Taycan Turbo actual range: 83.7/26.0*100 = 322 km = 200 miles
Taycan Turbo S actual range: 83.7/27.0*100 = 310 km = 192.6 miles

What?
Seriously?

Well, the battery is whatever it takes to get those specs but the way it uses energy is unforgivable. It even has the advantage of a two-speed transmission which should make it more efficient, not less!

This just highlights that electric motors and controllers are not commodity items, Tesla has some secret sauce (and it's not minor).

 

[Tslynk67]

Electrek have an article claiming that Tesla have job listings for manufacturing line specialists with experience in L-Ion, based in Colorado. Fred's take, they're going to making their own batteries in the near future:

Tesla confirms battery cell manufacturing in job listing, also new location in Colorado? - Electrek

Tesla text from the article:

Tesla is currently seeking a Technician for a manufacturing line we are developing. You’ll be part of a new product line we are developing.

We are looking for an Engineering Technician to assist anode development and optimization R&D. Candidates should be familiar with Li-ion cell chemistry and have experience building and assembling cells for performance testing. This candidate will be a key member of a cross-functional product development team. This job includes the fabrication of laboratory scale Li-ion anodes, electrode processing, laboratory scale Li-ion cell builds, and data analysis. The primary responsibilities of this position will be to assist in experimental planning and to carry out experiments and analysis.

 

[RobStark]

The BMW i8 looks way more interesting and sexier than the Taycan to my eye.

The i8 is a 2+2 2 door sports car.

Taycan is a 5 passenger four door car.

Like saying Ferrari 488 Spider is sexier than Model 3.

 

[Fact Checking]

Taycan is a 5 passenger four door car.

The Taycan is only 5 passengers with ... leg limitations in the back row though

 

[RobStark]

The Taycan is only 5 passengers with ... leg limitations in the back row though

Model 3 does not have the rear leg and head room of a Panamera.

But there will be a Taycan wagon version for those that want more practicality with less sexy.

 

[SpaceCash]

Meanwhile in Sweden

 

[MC3OZ]

Europe: 28,000
U.S. ~ 55,000
Canada ~ 7000
China 8000
ROW: 4000 (Australia/NZ ~2000, Hong Kong, Taiwan, S. Korea, Japan 2000)
Total: 102,000

105,000 seems attainable. Canada, China & ROW all seem like they could be higher. US will be hard to delivery much more than 24,000 in a month.

GAAP Ops even to +100mm
cash flow +625mm
COGS down, margins up
Almost 6 billion in the bank and on track for 6.5 billion by the end of the year.

2000 is about the minimum I expect for Australia and NZ...

Delivery staff seem very busy, and very well organised...

Then there is this unconfirmed quote:- " Salesman mentioned there are over 1600 arriving each month now,"

I think the quote is genuine, but who knows if the salesman was genuine, and well informed,, or perhaps 1,600 arrived in August and that is the most of the Q3 cars, still around 2,500 Model 3s in Australia and most of them delivered before the end of Q3 seems possible.

My hunch is based on ordering around 17 Aug, and being scheduled for delivery 28 Sept with a car produced 19 Jul. So they possibly loaded extra cars on the boats in anticipation, and/or Australian demand is a bit lower than expected.

Deliveries are happening now, and we have another 3 and a half weeks in which they can happen...

 

[30seconds]

I don’t get the 2 speed. What did they get for it? It should have been higher top speed or more efficient.

Need something for the dealers to fix for $7000-$12000.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Taking Norway as a barometer, we're seeing roughly 60% M3's as SR+ so far this quarter - so still a reasonable amount of LR's, & P's.

I suppose the UK is all P & LR, I can't remember. S & P are up, but nowhere near where this time last year.

I'd personally be surprised if the ASP is higher, but who knows, we're used to surprises, normally they tend to be unpleasant ones though.

The £ has performed poorly this quarter against the USD and Tesla doesn't hedge. My guess is that margins on the P3D will be worse from the UK than the vehicle would usually earn.