Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Repeatability is important when racing, which is where the Model 3P needs some work [ie. upgraded brakes]. Otherwise, I think it hews closer to the original spirit of Porsch-E than the Taycan.

If you're going to the track, you would want to buy the Performance version of the Model 3 - it comes with upgraded brakes. Of course, you still need racing pads (just like every other car out there).

Your entire post was a collection of forced sounding Tesla negatives. What is your agenda here?

 

[StealthP3D]

I'll just repeat that building Gigafactory 4 presupposes success in the German market, I think.

LOL! The Model 3 guarantees high sales in Germany. If you doubt that you've got issues I can't help you with.

 

[Tslynk67]

Service center here (Finland) said that basic sr will never come to europe.
Well never say never with Tesla.. but still think it's a long way away.

Good, not needed!!

 

[StealthP3D]

I ask myself if its purposely designed as a car that does not sell.

The Porsche is priced to sell in extremely small numbers while still having positive margins (even at very low volumes). This will confirm for the media that consumers don't want EVs.

 

[humbaba]

Good, not needed!!

Maybe not needed, but that cedes the lower price market to other sellers. And I think buyers deserve a Tesla (safety, AP, FSD, etc.) as an option. I'm not that familiar with Finland, but if you don't have driving needs outside of Helsinki then I'd think that an SR+ is very viable range-wise.

 

[humbaba]

LOL! The Model 3 guarantees high sales in Germany. If you doubt that you've got issues I can't help you with.

While I largely agree with your point I wouldn't discount the political power of the German automotive industry. I'm not sure the Model 3 can guarantee high sales if they apply pressure to get rules changed to hurt Tesla. The stunt where they carefully halved the gap in size between the M3 and, IIRC, the ID for example.

I don't think there's any doubt that Tesla will sell well, but I think the German companies may well be able to slow adoption.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, that handles InsideEVs' spoc.

 

[hobbes]

What do you think after the blowout UK numbers? 2000 cars in UK alone. Europe August vs May is now up over 40%.

That´s about 1500 more than expected for the month. Takes my estimate from 24,000-25,000 to 25,500-26,500. Let´s see how this continues in Sep., not unlikely that they´re above my estimate again which brings us towards the 28,000 .

 

[The Accountant]

Production is not unlimited. Tesla does have to choose markets to produce for, and they chose to make more for the EU, at the cost of US wait times.

Indeed, this clearly wasn't some last-minute decision, because - as you note - US cars are not EU-LHD cars are not EU-RHD cars. This strategy was clearly planned (although US demand may have turned out to be higher than expected).

Agree! So crazy when I hear the FUDsters point to one market and claim a problem with demand. What gets produced gets sold (unless in transit). If Telsa is down or flat in one market, you can be sure they will be up in other markets. Remember Zachary Kirkhorn's (CFO) comment on the Q2 call:

... but the most important thing is that we've demonstrated our ability to generate significant organic demand, as nearly all orders generated in Q2 were non-reservation holders. And thus far in Q3, our order pacing is ahead of where we were at this point in Q2. And as we noted in our Q2 production and delivery release, our order backlog increased over the course of Q2.(emphasis added)

My guess is that orders (demand) continue to exceed production (despite the increase in production) and we will see that the order backlog entering Q4 will be higher than when entering Q3.

 

[hobbes]

Germany is trending downward, though:.Matthias Schmidt on Twitter
Edit: important to read Alex Voigt's comment and the subsequent response.

I'll just repeat that building Gigafactory 4 presupposes success in the German market, I think.

We have better numbers than that (Tesla total registrations):

Jan: 137
Feb: 1092
Mar: 2367
Q1 total: 3596

Apr: 575
May: 433
June: 1605
Q2 total: 2613

July: 607
Aug: 514

So after there was a lot of pent up demand/backlog when they started delivering Model 3 in February,
it went down in Q2 which was expected, but both July and August are higher than Apr and May.
I would not call that a general down trend.

However for all of Europe, Q2 saw almost the same number of deliveries as Q1, so Germany did worse in comparison.

I would like to promote our thread EU Market Situation and Outlook , would make sense to continue the discussion there!

 

[KarenRei]

Not much in the new pictures, but:

Vincent on Twitter

Almost looks like the photographer was hiding.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My guess is that orders (demand) continue to exceed production (despite the increase in production) and we will see that the order backlog entering Q4 will be higher than when entering Q3.

Gee, sounds like they could use another auto factory... I wonder what Tesla plans to do about that?

Cheers!

 

[shootformoon]

Actually the only thing I think Porsche is doing right is on the high end product pricing.

For a unrealistic toy >$150k, its target consumers do not care about money. They want social status, prestige and the feeling of standing out. These ridiculous options meet their needs exactly.

I wish tesla has an MS trim higher than performance and with all the stupid options each charging thousands. Even gold can be applied to the outer body or something. That is the margin and cash we need for the mission.

You gotta let rich people contribute/donate to the mission. Give them a reason.

Heard that competition is coming (AGAIN).
So I just checked out Taycan's config page. That is one looooooong list of options and most importantly ADD-ONS.
View attachment 450625

And sugars like these (didn't bother checking out the rest, felt disgusted sorry)
View attachment 450624
View attachment 450623


WOW, just WOW. Does every other automaker do this? Trying to rip off customers in every way they can.
I really did not know this. Cause Model 3 is my first car and going forward Tesla will be my only choice.

Just when I thought I can't love Tesla more, I fell deeper in love.

 

[KarenRei]

For a unrealistic toy >$150k, its target consumers do not care about money. They want social status, prestige and the feeling of standing out. These ridiculous options meet their needs exactly. I wish tesla has an MS trim higher than performance and with all the stupid options each charging thousands. ... You gotta let rich people contribute/donate to the mission. Give them a reason.

Ahem...

 

[LN1_Casey]

Almost looks like the photographer was hiding.

I have no doubt they were. There is probably a fairly strict no photo/video policy. That's why the photos have always been either officially released, drone shots from free air space, or done in a way that seems like it was accomplished on the sly.

 

[FreqFlyer]

A Taycan article written by someone who owns a Model 3. The gist is simple, the Taycan is NOT a Tesla competitor but expands EV landscape choices.

The 2020 Porsche Taycan: The Empire Strikes Back

"If trackability, reliability, solidity, touchpoints and feel don't matter to you, there's a company based in Fremont with the perfect alternative. I bought my Model 3 for very different reasons. Emotion was one, Autopilot was the other. I wanted the future, and for years only Tesla sold it. Now, clickbait-writers, idiots and shills will want to debate whether or not the Taycan is a Tesla Killer, but it's obviously not. Does the Taycan compete directly with a Model 3? An X? An S? No. No. And no."

 

[HG Wells]

If battery production is no longer the limiting factor will the LR without AWD return ?
Would it's return indicate that battery production is no longer a problem ?

 

[VValleyEV]

Some adoption curve news that I think bodes well for Tesla futures:

My wife was tolerant of my MS purchase last year, yet very skeptical of the practicality of a BEV, availability of charging infrastructure, and especially skeptical of all the screen tech stuff, even though she is a retired software developer. Lots of complaints about what is wrong with physical buttons, so much easier to find and use with looking away from the highway. And OMG that Model 3 has just the screen, how ugly and crazy is that.

Fast forward to last week when she suddenly decided she is tired of the Jeep Rubicon 2Dr, doesn’t do much off-roading these days, and wants a standard passenger car for her own trips. Big surprise, she wants a BEV, tired of all that gas pumping and smell. Bigger surprise, I said well I suppose it will be a Leaf or Bolt then, she said no it has to be a Tesla. She took a test drive in the Model 3 that afternoon and loves it so much that she wants it yesterday, why do I have to wait 2-3 weeks etc.

I am of course delighted to have an all-electric fleet, infrastructure is already there, and might even get to drive her M3 once in a great while. Also both cars will be FSD, so as we get crappier at driving, the cars both get better, and I am really happy she will be driving one of the safest cars on the planet.

UPDATE that may be relevant here in 2 respects as interesting data points:

1. I ordered M3 SR+ but subsequently updated the order to LR AWD. My wife test drove the SR+ and loved it, seemed like a perfect fit because we already have a LR MS so would continue to use that for road trips. BUT I just couldn’t keep from advising her to go ahead and kick in another $9k ($10 with sales tax i AZ), a whopping 25% bump. Reasons/rationalizations:

• FSD is a must for old farts like us, and hard to invest that $6k future-proofing in the shorter range “discount model”.
• A few other limitations in the SR+ are at the annoyance level, not having traffic info on the maps, and a TBD slightly less fancy sound system (we are music lovers and performers).
• Who knows, We might move to a 1-car family in the future sometime, and the 3 might be plenty big so why scrimp on range and features if we don’t have to? Our MS is a Feb 2018 build, we love it but strictly speaking it is the “older” car with MCU1.
• EDIT: If we absolutely love the 3, I might consider trading in the S for a pickup, or maybe a fancy electric motorcycle? Seems like a perfect plan for someone in mid-70s.

2. Real interesting to see what our actual delivery date will be, given we are approaching end of quarter.

• It has been a week since I placed the original order with a $2500 deposit, and 2 days since upgrading it from SR+ to LR AWD. I didn’t “cancel and re-submit” the order, had a salesman (correction, sales advisor) change it from the Tesla end, supposedly the least amount of disruption that way. My account on the website has remained “expect delivery in 2 weeks from order placement” throughout this time. No VIN number yet, am in the state of “we are preparing a contract with your payoff amount”.
• We are approaching the end of the time window to get M3’s shipped to EU in time for Q3 recognition, so I would expect that orders like mine will be pushed back as long as they can and still make the end of the month and Q3, in favor to shipping to EU.
• I would guess that moving from SR+ to LR AWD should not make much difference to that deliver local vs ship to EU decision, since both are available in EU now, but maybe some difference because margin is better on LR AWD.

 

[JusRelax]

Looks like Tesla does still plan on using direct driver data in the future when determining insurance rates:

Tesla’s insurance program will use direct driver data where it can with permission, exec says

Tesla's insurance program will use direct driver data where it can with permission, exec says - Electrek

 

[KarenRei]

Looks like Tesla does still plan on using direct driver data in the future when determining insurance rates:

Tesla’s insurance program will use direct driver data where it can with permission, exec says

Tesla's insurance program will use direct driver data where it can with permission, exec says - Electrek

Big Data for the win. Tesla gets the profitable safe drivers, and dispatches the unsafe ones to be a burden on other insurance companies.

Seriously, Tesla should be able to build a realtime profile of each driver down to the level how likely they are to use a turn signal at a specific roundabout at a certain time of day. They'll even be able to compare driver behavior vs. the conditions around them at that specific time (other drivers' speeds, how slippery the roads are, whether pedestrians are nearby, etc). If the driver's risk-taking behavior changes suddenly (for bad or for good), they'll know it instantly, rather than having to wait for them to get in an accident.