Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

Big Data for the win. Tesla gets the profitable safe drivers, and dispatches the unsafe ones to be a burden on other insurance companies.

Seriously, Tesla should be able to build a realtime profile of each driver down to the level how likely they are to use a turn signal at a specific roundabout at a certain time of day.

I have never seen anyone use a turn signal at a roundabout,
Why would they ?

 

[KarenRei]

I have never seen anyone use a turn signal at a roundabout,
Why would they ?

You're supposed to (at least where we are). Right to exit the circle (our circles are counterclockwise), left if you're in the outermost lane and plan to stay on for more than one exit.

Why would you? The same reason you're supposed to use turn signals in general: to let the people around you know what you plan to do.

Of course, you're in the US where traffic circles are less common, and only have been becoming more common in recent years / decades. I'm not surprised that people where you are just drive in and out without signaling

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Dear lord Fred's most recent article with his hot take on Tesla and Porsche just screams as someone being begrudgingly forced to acknowledge something in the most disingenuous way. Just to save everyone on clicks, he does his best to minimize Tesla's strength BUT still acknowledge them. When it comes to Tesla's weaknesses though, he's has no problem spouting FUD. Here's a fun exert:

"Tesla has problems. Big problems. The company isn’t great at managing capital and human resources. The quality of its cars could improve quite a bit. The company always seems to be in crisis mode and counts the fossil fuel industry, automakers/car dealers, and lots of journalists as enemies."

Last time I checked, Tesla hasn't been in crisis mode since Q1-Q2 2018. Q1 2019 "crisis" mode was a fabrication of the media narrative. Quality of cars is right up there with german auto makers. The only quarter where you could say Tesla was just plain bad at their capital management was Q1 and that was very understandable considering the overseas logistics. I don't think Fred even realizes the difference of GAAP profitability and positive FCF. He definitely doesn't understand why Tesla posted a loss for Q1 and Q2. Oh and last time I checked, Fossil fuel, car dealerships, car auto makers, state governments, loads of journalists and media bias have taken countless shots at Tesla , almost all in a bias and at best disingenuous way. Yeah....if I were Tesla, I'd consider them enemies as well.

…...Before anymore replies with "Service IS a big issue", yes service is an issue. I think it's grossly inaccurate statement in the context of how Fred is wording things.

 

[Chocochip]

Big Data for the win. Tesla gets the profitable safe drivers, and dispatches the unsafe ones to be a burden on other insurance companies.

Seriously, Tesla should be able to build a realtime profile of each driver down to the level how likely they are to use a turn signal at a specific roundabout at a certain time of day. They'll even be able to compare driver behavior vs. the conditions around them at that specific time (other drivers' speeds, how slippery the roads are, whether pedestrians are nearby, etc). If the driver's risk-taking behavior changes suddenly (for bad or for good), they'll know it instantly, rather than having to wait for them to get in an accident.

Tesla voice in cabin: "You appear to be driving rather aggressively today compared to your typical pattern. You have accelerated at a rate of approximately 0.6G on three occasions since the start of your trip, failed to give way twice and braked late five times. Your utterances also sound threatening, and you have used variants of the f-word on 12 separate occasions in the past 5 minutes. There is a coffee shop on the street second to the right, where you might want to take a 10-minute break and unwind."

 

[Chocochip]

Dear lord Fred's most recent article with his hot take on Tesla and Porsche just screams as someone being begrudgingly forced to acknowledge something in the most disingenuous way. Just to save everyone on clicks, he does his best to minimize Tesla's strength BUT still acknowledge them. When it comes to Tesla's weaknesses though, he's has no problem spouting FUD. Here's a fun exert:

"Tesla has problems. Big problems. The company isn’t great at managing capital and human resources. The quality of its cars could improve quite a bit. The company always seems to be in crisis mode and counts the fossil fuel industry, automakers/car dealers, and lots of journalists as enemies."

Last time I checked, Tesla hasn't been in crisis mode since Q1-Q2 2018. Q1 2019 "crisis" mode was a fabrication of the media narrative. Quality of cars is right up there with german auto makers. The only quarter where you could say Tesla was just plain bad at their capital management was Q1 and that was very understandable considering the overseas logistics. I don't think Fred even realizes the difference of GAAP profitability and positive FCF. He definitely doesn't understand why Tesla posted a loss for Q1 and Q2. Oh and last time I checked, Fossil fuel, car dealerships, car auto makers, state governments, loads of journalists and media bias have taken countless shots at Tesla , almost all in a bias and at best disingenuous way. Yeah....if I were Tesla, I'd consider them enemies as well.

…...Before anymore replies with "Service IS a big issue", yes service is an issue. I think it's grossly inaccurate statement in the context of how Fred is wording things.

That's Seth Weintraub's article, not Fred's. You can tell by how significantly more coherent the phrasing is.

 

[Alphacrux]

1. Tesla voice in cabin: "You appear to be driving rather aggressively today compared to your typical pattern. You have accelerated at a rate of approximately 0.6G on three occasions since the start of your trip, failed to give way twice and braked late five times. Your utterances also sound threatening, and you have used variants of the f-word on 12 separate occasions in the past 5 minutes. There is a coffee shop on the street second to the right, where you might want to take a 10-minute break and unwind."

   ‘You really should take a stress pill, Dave”

 

[Compton]

Dear lord Fred's most recent article with his hot take on Tesla and Porsche just screams as someone being begrudgingly forced to acknowledge something in the most disingenuous way. Just to save everyone on clicks, he does his best to minimize Tesla's strength BUT still acknowledge them. When it comes to Tesla's weaknesses though, he's has no problem spouting FUD. Here's a fun exert:

"Tesla has problems. Big problems. The company isn’t great at managing capital and human resources. The quality of its cars could improve quite a bit. The company always seems to be in crisis mode and counts the fossil fuel industry, automakers/car dealers, and lots of journalists as enemies."

Last time I checked, Tesla hasn't been in crisis mode since Q1-Q2 2018. Q1 2019 "crisis" mode was a fabrication of the media narrative. Quality of cars is right up there with german auto makers. The only quarter where you could say Tesla was just plain bad at their capital management was Q1 and that was very understandable considering the overseas logistics. I don't think Fred even realizes the difference of GAAP profitability and positive FCF. He definitely doesn't understand why Tesla posted a loss for Q1 and Q2. Oh and last time I checked, Fossil fuel, car dealerships, car auto makers, state governments, loads of journalists and media bias have taken countless shots at Tesla , almost all in a bias and at best disingenuous way. Yeah....if I were Tesla, I'd consider them enemies as well.

…...Before anymore replies with "Service IS a big issue", yes service is an issue. I think it's grossly inaccurate statement in the context of how Fred is wording things.

I just ignore him and his site. I hope he alienates himself from enough readers to fade back into oblivion.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That's Seth Weintraub's article, not Fred's. You can tell by how significantly more coherent the phrasing is.

My bad ......still my point is the same. Out of all of the "Issues" that was listed, only one is valid and that's the human resources/service.

 

[Steve m]

I have never seen anyone use a turn signal at a roundabout,
Why would they ?

I do for exciting the roundabout to let other the sake of other cars wanting to enter.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Not much in the new pictures, but:

Vincent on Twitter

Almost looks like the photographer was hiding.

I hope this does a little to quell the "Q3 production start" crowd. Progress is amazing but there's clearly more to do.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla voice in cabin: "You appear to be driving rather aggressively today compared to your typical pattern. You have accelerated at a rate of approximately 0.6G on three occasions since the start of your trip, failed to give way twice and braked late five times. Your utterances also sound threatening, and you have used variants of the f-word on 12 separate occasions in the past 5 minutes. There is a coffee shop on the street second to the right, where you might want to take a 10-minute break and unwind."

"... John, that barista you've had a crush on, is currently working there, although he'll be leaving his shift in 30 minutes. He's currently stressed because his furnace is broken at home. I've located a heavily discounted furnace in inventory 20 minutes away from here that you could recommend to him, and I've tracked down a half-off discount promotion code from a local installer. There's one other potential customer looking to purchase the furnace who plans to leave home shortly; would you like me to arrange for their driveway to be blocked by a delivery truck so that they can't get out?"

 

[Sean Wagner]

LOL! The Model 3 guarantees high sales in Germany. If you doubt that you've got issues I can't help you with.

I have issues you can't help me with. I know how important and challenging the German market is and want Tesla to excel in Europe too.

I have never seen anyone use a turn signal at a roundabout,
Why would they ?

It's the law [cue gongs]. In Switzerland [cue alphorns]. But just under certain conditions.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Dear lord Fred's most recent article with his hot take on Tesla and Porsche just screams as someone being begrudgingly forced to acknowledge something in the most disingenuous way. Just to save everyone on clicks, he does his best to minimize Tesla's strength BUT still acknowledge them. When it comes to Tesla's weaknesses though, he's has no problem spouting FUD. Here's a fun exert:

"Tesla has problems. Big problems. The company isn’t great at managing capital and human resources. The quality of its cars could improve quite a bit. The company always seems to be in crisis mode and counts the fossil fuel industry, automakers/car dealers, and lots of journalists as enemies."

Last time I checked, Tesla hasn't been in crisis mode since Q1-Q2 2018. Q1 2019 "crisis" mode was a fabrication of the media narrative. Quality of cars is right up there with german auto makers. The only quarter where you could say Tesla was just plain bad at their capital management was Q1 and that was very understandable considering the overseas logistics. I don't think Fred even realizes the difference of GAAP profitability and positive FCF. He definitely doesn't understand why Tesla posted a loss for Q1 and Q2. Oh and last time I checked, Fossil fuel, car dealerships, car auto makers, state governments, loads of journalists and media bias have taken countless shots at Tesla , almost all in a bias and at best disingenuous way. Yeah....if I were Tesla, I'd consider them enemies as well.

…...Before anymore replies with "Service IS a big issue", yes service is an issue. I think it's grossly inaccurate statement in the context of how Fred is wording things.

I took it as a positive Tesla comparo with Porsche. You picked out really the only negative.

 

[Chocochip]

"... John, that barista you've had a crush on, is currently working there, although he'll be leaving his shift in 30 minutes. He's currently stressed because his furnace is broken at home. I've located a heavily discounted furnace in inventory 20 minutes away from here that you could recommend to him, and I've tracked down a half-off discount promotion code from a local installer. There's one other potential customer looking to purchase the furnace who plans to leave home shortly; would you like me to arrange for their driveway to be blocked by a delivery truck so that they can't get out?"

All in the name of improved traffic safety, of course...

 

[CorneliusXX]

I have never seen anyone use a turn signal at a roundabout,
Why would they ?

You always use the blinker in Australia, in fact sometimes you use it twice. If you are taking the 3+ exit you indicate you are turning left then just before you leave the roundabout you flick to the right blinker to indicate you are leaving the roundabout.

 

[jbih]

I want to repeat a speciality of the German incentives: The state gives 2000€ and the manufacturer has to give 2000€ as well. That reduces the margin on every Model 3 sold by more than $2000.

So Tesla should sell every low-margin Model 3 in other countries as long as they are production constrained.

Not sure if Tesla actually does that. If yes, wait times on SR+ should be very high?

 

[M3Rider]

Big Data for the win. Tesla gets the profitable safe drivers, and dispatches the unsafe ones to be a burden on other insurance companies.

Seriously, Tesla should be able to build a realtime profile of each driver down to the level how likely they are to use a turn signal at a specific roundabout at a certain time of day.

I think the key word there is "with permission"

That is the same thing Geico or Progressive or both are doing - offering you a lower rate if you agree to install in your car some device they'll send you to monitor your behavior.
The difference is like 10% or less to the rate.

Tesla does not need the extra device, but looks like they still have to ask the question.
So, if you disagree, you just pay more and they don't know how bad a driver you are

 

[LN1_Casey]

I hope this does a little to quell the "Q3 production start" crowd. Progress is amazing but there's clearly more to do.

You think that a mere two pictures can silence us?

Seriously, though, the factory is Fording HUGE. Two pictures taken from a darkened corner does not remove the possibility of them already dry running/OPTEST running the production lines somewhere else.

Now, while I do think they'll have made at least one Made in China Model 3 soon, I don't think it'll be from a fully functioning factory. Probably closer to hand assembled than dreadnought.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I took it as a positive Tesla comparo with Porsche. You picked out really the only negative.

Maybe I'm being too harsh but it feels a bit disingenuous when they say "Maybe Tesla drivetrain is a bit too far ahead for other to catch up" and then follow it with "Tesla is and has been in crisis mode". That's not accurate of the past 4 quarters for Tesla at all.

 

[KarenRei]

I think the key word there is "with permission"

That is the same thing Geico or Progressive or both are doing - proposing you a lower rate if you agree to install in your car some device they'll send you to monitor your behavior.
The difference is like 10% or less to the rate.

Tesla does not need the extra device, but looks like they still have to ask the question.
So, if you disagree, you just pay more and they don't know how bad a driver you are

Indeed. Except even with said little device, they wouldn't have nearly as much data as Tesla would have, including for example live streaming data from Tesla's vision system.