Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

This may be the first stock millennials sell for a 30% profit and regret selling the rest of their lives.

That's what I did back in 2012.

 

[KarenRei]

So the capEx heavy first round was only intended to hit 5k, and it is now near 7k on its way higher. Instead of investing more in the 10k/wk Fremont goal, they expedited GF3.

It's not at 7k/wk. 7k/wk would be 91k Model 3s per quarter, which they were nowhere close to hitting in Q2.

If you're telling me that in Q3 they're going to have produced 91k Model 3s at Fremont without GA5, then by all means pop the champagne cork, because the SP is going to love that.

 

[ZeApelido]

Osborne

Osborne

Osborne!

Any announcements of Model Y production will hurt Model 3 & X ASP and margins immediately. Look at Model 3 effect on Model S.

NFW Elon doesn't try to minimize the Osborne effect. Now imagine what Tesla could possibly do to minimize that.

1. Begin production much earlier than you said you would.

2. Under promote Model Y at unveiling.

3. Be vague about any developments related to Y production.

That does not mean Y production is imminent, but I can imagine that there will be a little surprise whenever it does go into production.

 

[MC3OZ]

Somebody's antsy for their delivery ...

Why, when they have said Y will be more popular than 3, would they put in another 3 line instead of a Y one? Unless they can't keep the srung structure.

It is possible that AWD and Performance Model 3s are built at GA4 and GA3 is now going flat out with SR+ production...

But perhaps GA4 can't keep up with AWD and Performance demand, if GA5 increasing the production of high margin Model 3s and can later be redeployed for Model Y production it is a great idea....

My first thought we it looked like Performance Model 3 production was lagging demand was "built another tent".

To be clear I'm not convinced either way, but using GA5 for Model 3s on a temporary basis is a very efficient use of capital.

It also seems logical that Model Y production will initially start in lower volumes or the more premium variants... So a "tent like" GA may be all that is initially needed.

 

[MC3OZ]

Osborne

Osborne

Osborne!

Any announcements of Model Y production will hurt Model 3 & X ASP and margins immediately. Look at Model 3 effect on Model S.

NFW Elon doesn't try to minimize the Osborne effect. Now imagine what Tesla could possibly do to minimize that.

1. Begin production much earlier than you said you would.

2. Under promote Model Y at unveiling.

3. Be vague about any developments related to Y production.

That does not mean Y production is imminent, but I can imagine that there will be a little surprise whenever it does go into production.

Fear of an Osborne effect is overstated IMO most people typically need a car by a particular date...

The estimated timeline for Model Y is the earliest you can expect the car, like Model 3 the first batch of production will probably be for employees only. Production will start on higher trims, and initially US only...

People in remote countries with worthless currency *looks in mirror*, will be waiting 2-3 years or more from the start of Model Y production for a base variant... That is 2-3 years when they can get a Model 3 much quicker...

The Osborne effect only happens with customers in no particular hurry.

But Tesla are wise to sandbag ...

 

[dc_h]

It's not at 7k/wk. 7k/wk would be 91k Model 3s per quarter, which they were nowhere close to hitting in Q2.

If you're telling me that in Q3 they're going to have produced 91k Model 3s at Fremont without GA5, then by all means pop the champagne cork, because the SP is going to love that.

Regardless of optimism levels, GA5 implies battery supplies are above 7000 packs a week. If they were peaking at 7000 in Q2 and batteries the critical path, then batteries are no longer the constraint.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Apologies if this has already been posted.

An 8 minute read covering topics well covered here. It’s just nice to read it all in one place, top to bottom, without needing to thread many pages and weed out trolls.

The future of legacy car manufacturers | The Driven

 

[Buckminster]

I'm still going with this:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
My guess:
1) Tesla have bought the MY robots
2) They will build the line to temporarily make M3
3) They will make changes in 1 year to make the line 100% MY

Other benefits

• Test new Alien Dreadnought 1.0 line methodology
• Test GF3 line methodology without having to send engineers to China
• Build up cell demand ahead of MY

Or?
Semi production in Freemont? plus earlier than planned?

 

[LN1_Casey]

This may be the first stock millennials sell for a 30% profit and regret selling the rest of their lives.

This is likely going to be me. Then again, I'd have my Tesla at the end of it, so not really a loss-loss.

 

[Thekiwi]

I'm still going with this:

Wouldn’t a vehicle that was going to be in “Mass Production” in 2nd half 2020 start having its GA installed by Q4 2019? It takes some time to install and work the kinks out of a new vehicle and new production automation processes doesn’t it? I would be shocked if Tesla was going to wait until Q1 or Q2 before starting the Y production line install and testing.

 

[Zaxxon]

Hmm. Musk is claiming the record was just taken by the S at Laguna Seca. (Yes, I just accidentally wrote Nurburgring for a minute. It's late.)

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[LJS22]

Hmm. Musk is claiming the record was just taken by the S at Laguna Seca. (Yes, I just accidentally wrote Nurburgring for a minute. It's late.)

Elon Musk on Twitter

For a 4dr. Time must be around 1:38 range which would knock 9-10 seconds off previous time for an S? Excited to see the video tomorrow. Must be a raven

 

[Fact Checking]

Well, it's better than nothing. And a good low-cost way to juice sales at the end of the quarter so they can get as many freshly produced cars into customers hands.

Yeah, so "double the free Supercharger miles" is one of the weakest demand levers pulled in an end of quarter push, which might be interpreted in a bullish way:

• Firstly, it's a small tool to ensure that end of Q3 deliveries in the U.S. will actually happen on the schedule Tesla wants to. Customer delaying a delivery in the last minute is a lost delivery for Q3.
  
• It also signals to any holdouts waiting for the customary end of quarter push that this is the end of quarter deal they are getting in Q3.

Should Tesla pull a bigger demand lever in the next 1-2 weeks, that would be bearish.

 

[Fact Checking]

For a 4dr. Time must be around 1:38 range which would knock 9-10 seconds off previous time for an S? Excited to see the video tomorrow. Must be a raven

Here's Elon's tweet:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Model S just set record for fastest 4 door ever at Laguna Seca, video tmrw"​

Bodes well for good Nürburgring times.

Elon also just tweeted this update about the record attempt at the Nürburgring:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"But we probably won’t try for best lap time this week, as we need to review & tune Model S thoroughly for safety on Nürburgring, especially Flugplatz section"​

Note the emphasis on tuning the Model S - which suggests that Raven hardware is capable of achieving good Nürburgring lap times, it's a matter of software features/tuning to reach a good lap.

To recap, the "Flugplatz section" is named "Airfield section" not just because it's on a former airfield, but because cars can literally go flying there:

Nürburgring - Wikipedia

"The track features a very short straight that climbs sharply uphill for a short time, then suddenly drops slightly downhill, and this is immediately followed by two very fast right-hand kinks."

...

"The Flugplatz is one of the most important parts of the Nürburgring because after the two very fast right handers comes what is possibly the fastest part of the track: a downhill straight called Kottenborn, into a very fast curve called Schwedenkreuz (Swedish Cross). Drivers are flat out for some time here."​

Unsurprisingly it's the historically most dangerous section of the Nürburgring:

"Chris Irwin's career was ended following a massive accident at Flugplatz, in a Ford 3L GT sports car in 1968. Manfred Winkelhock flipped his March Formula Two car at the same corner in 1980. This section of the track was renovated in 2016[31] after an accident in which a Nissan GTR flew over the fence and killed a spectator.[32]​

 

[Fact Checking]

For a 4dr. Time must be around 1:38 range which would knock 9-10 seconds off previous time for an S? Excited to see the video tomorrow. Must be a raven

Here's the list of Laguna Seca lap times:

Laguna Seca (post 1988) lap times - FastestLaps.com
​

The fastest 4-door sedan appears to be the BMW M5, with a lap time of 1:39.81:

BMW M5 F90 laptimes, specs, performance data - FastestLaps.com​

Note that the Model 3 Performance set a 1:37 IIRC - and it's not in this list.

The BMW M5 has a Nürburgring Nordschleife record of 7:38 - better than the Taycan's 7:42.

So if the Model S beats the BMW M5 on Laguna Seca, it has a good shot at beating the Taycan on the Nürburgring.

Porsche pulled the perfect "end of quarter demand lever" for the Model S.

 

[samppa]

Yeah, so "double the free Supercharger miles" is one of the weakest demand levers pulled in an end of quarter push, which might be interpreted in a bullish way:

• Firstly, it's a small tool to ensure that end of Q3 deliveries in the U.S. will actually happen on the schedule Tesla wants to. Customer delaying a delivery in the last minute is a lost delivery for Q3.
  
• It also signals to any holdouts waiting for the customary end of quarter push that this is the end of quarter deal they are getting in Q3.

Should Tesla pull a bigger demand lever in the next 1-2 weeks, that would be bearish.

thats also only for Model 3, S/X have FUSC already.

 

[Fact Checking]

thats also only for Model 3, S/X have FUSC already.

Yes, I'm referring to the 3, which is generally the most sensitive to end of quarter pushes (due to the lower ASP, incentives have a 2x-3x larger effect on perceived value) - the S/X had the unlimited Supercharging incentive for most of the quarter.

 

[Stars aligned]

It's possible the timing makes sense for a temp 3 line, but I'm not seeing it. They've been behind their original 10k a week goal since the beginning and have since guided for less from Fremont and more from GF3.

All those additional things are equally needed for 3k more Ys or 3k more 3s. However, a new Y line would have robots and tooling whereas a 3 line would be more manual. Why put in an additional manual 3 line when they need the space soon for the Y line? Assuming they even have the equipment laying around.
I suppose they could make a manual line that can do 3s now and Ys later. In that case, we'll see a GA6 permit soon.

Chances are high that you are spot on. I've suspected and sometimes written this a couple of months before.. Why would they double the orders from their suppliers? Why should they install the GA 3 quarters ahead of actual production when they prove in China that it can be done much faster? And to reach the magic 10000 Model 3 per week, it's sufficient to start production at GF3, no further ramp up in Fremont required. So the arguments against an early start of Model Y production are very weak.

But be prepared, some diehards will crucify you if you don't share their opinion and if you do not take every word and hint out of Elon's mouth literally. On this topic, I wonder where the Model S lap time on the Nurburgring stays as mid-week approaches.

That said too much widespread expectation may actually Osborne Model 3 sales. But it will anyway, either soon or late 2020 or all way along. As Elon mentioned, he expects Q3 and Q4 to be good, Q1 and Q2 2020 to be difficult and the rest of 2020 to be fantastic. Why would beginning of 2020 be difficult for Tesla financially when China ramps up so much then and Fremont is in full swing? Maybe because it will not be so easy to sell Model 3 in US / Europe because everyone waits for the Y?

And therefore it makes so much sense to hurry up with Y, and ok, also to do some sandbagging. Some will always fall for it.

And of course, this will lead to another swing in the SP. Another opportunity is ahead.

 

[uselesslogin]

It's not at 7k/wk. 7k/wk would be 91k Model 3s per quarter, which they were nowhere close to hitting in Q2.

If you're telling me that in Q3 they're going to have produced 91k Model 3s at Fremont without GA5, then by all means pop the champagne cork, because the SP is going to love that.

I honestly am not sure how we could possibly be seeing the delivery numbers we've seen so far without model 3 production being at 90k+.

 

[SpaceCash]

My very off-the-hip prediction for today is we will test 238s and possibly 240