Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mekberg]

CNBC have removed the word "tiny" from the headline, but it's still in the article.

It's a clear lie, misreporting what was on Elon's email!!

View attachment 372945

CNBC writes:

'Tiny profit'
Musk said preliminary results show the company made a profit on an unadjusted basis during the fourth quarter of 2018, but it was less than the previous three months. In the first quarter, higher-priced Model 3s to Europe and Asia "will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit," Musk said in a Jan. 18 company update.

They even supply the URL where Elon states "This quarter", as in 19Q1:

In Q3 last year, we were able to make a 4% profit. While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla. However, that was in part the result of preferentially selling higher priced Model 3 variants in North America. In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3. This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.

Journalism is hard.

"Tesla Has Just 4 Weeks to Rally 21% or Pay $920 Million on Bonds"

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Tslynk67]

Journalism is hard.

"Tesla Has Just 4 Weeks to Rally 21% or Pay $920 Million on Bonds"

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I think we all agree to give the cash - we don't want more dilution.

 

[KarenRei]

CNBC have removed the word "tiny" from the headline, but it's still in the article.

It's a clear lie, misreporting what was on Elon's email!!

View attachment 372945

CNBC writes:

'Tiny profit'
Musk said preliminary results show the company made a profit on an unadjusted basis during the fourth quarter of 2018, but it was less than the previous three months. In the first quarter, higher-priced Model 3s to Europe and Asia "will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit," Musk said in a Jan. 18 company update.

They even supply the URL where Elon states "This quarter", as in 19Q1:

In Q3 last year, we were able to make a 4% profit. While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla. However, that was in part the result of preferentially selling higher priced Model 3 variants in North America. In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3. This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.

Good. Keep expectations low. I want us going into this with the market expecting an EPS of $0,01

 

[KarenRei]

I think we all agree to give the cash - we don't want more dilution.

Exactly. If Tesla dilutes now, buying back the dilution in the future will cost vastly more. The days of equity funding are over. Debt is fine and welcome, but not dilution.

 

[Tslynk67]

Good. Keep expectations low. I want us going into this with the market expecting an EPS of $0,01

Well maybe it's a bear-trap, the CNBC staff switched from shorting to long in the last week...

 

[sundaymorning]

Every analyst rating should have a score showing how close or off their prior estimates have been on average whenever an article is published about their new estimate.

Maybe CleanTechnica, InsideEV, or other EV sites can help do this? We can’t count on Electrek anymore, Fred might as well join Goldman Sachs.

 

[abasile]

Of all the people I’ve known who are into Harleys, I can’t think of a single person under age 50...

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - today: Harley-Davidson U.S. bike sales tumble; company says it's developing more electric motorcycles

 

[KarenRei]

+0,36, over 1% better than Nasdaq.

Was hoping for better, but.. .meh.

One more day. Hoping for a good one going into the ER.

 

[Buckminster]

Final 2 Brexit amendments were passed.
One was a vote to suggest that MPs would not accept a "no deal". Doesn't help May with her negotiations.
The other gives her a mandate to change the backstop with EU. First time parliament has approved something (a little nebulous and Tusk has already said won't happen). So, status quo really.
Expect repeat of similar amendment voting 13/14 Feb.
I am sticking with my 10 year sunset clause on backstop like a dog with a bone...

 

[lascavarian]

Of all the people I’ve known who are into Harleys, I can’t think of a single person under age 50...

https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/814110/Harley_EV_Piece_Jack_Mitrani.mp4

Sorry, I can't tell you how funny this is to me. I have a Buell and HD owned Buell at one time and poorly supported Buell and shut them down. Now they are left with a customer base that will not be happy with this kind of transition. Buell would have worked so much better. This should be a preview of what the auto market is going to have to do to survive.

 

[Curt Renz]

Of all the people I’ve known who are into Harleys, I can’t think of a single person under age 50...

Here's a 1933 photo of my father's first cousin on the back of her groom's Harley on their wedding day. She was 19 and he was in his early 20's.

 

[Lessmog]

Here's a 1933 photo of my father's first cousin on the back of her groom's Harley on their wedding day. She was 19 and he was in his early 20's.

View attachment 372950

So that makes them what, over 50?

 

[RobStark]

Ok, if you consider performance, then yes.
But remember that top 5 trade-ins include honda civic and toyota prius. These people are used to good fuel economy. In general, the smaller the car the better its mpg.

American BMW 3 Series and Lexus IS top 5 tradeins likely include Corolla and Civic.

For no other reason than those are top sellers in CA. And that is BMW's top American market by a very large margin.

The vast majority of people don't buy a new luxury car as their first car.

And a lot Prius tradeins are from households that also include Porsche or BMW. It is not that they don't care about performance, they purchased the Prius despite its atrocious acceleration and handling. People made it their commuter car, not their weekend car, because they were determined to cut their CO2 footprint. They don't actively not value performance. In other words they don't view Civic and Corolla is comparable vehicles to Model 3.

 

[RobStark]

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - today: Harley-Davidson U.S. bike sales tumble; company says it's developing more electric motorcycles

90% plus of their sales are to white male Baby Boomers and Gen Xers.

That is an ever decreasing market.

 

[Tslynk67]

90% plus of their sales are to white male Baby Boomers and Gen Xers.

That is an ever decreasing market.

A lot to mid-40's buy a Harley when they hit their mid-life crisis... In my case it was a Model S - Belgian weather/roads/crazy drivers not suited for motorbikes...

 

[Remus]

A lot to mid-40's buy a Harley when they hit their mid-life crisis... In my case it was a Model S - Belgian weather/roads/crazy drivers not suited for motorbikes...

So "middle aged man with something to prove"?

 

[Mobius484]

My grandpa didn’t buy shares in 3M instead opting for a early harly, which he ended up selling, and I heard about how he should have bought 3M stock all the while growing up from him as he would rant on about dividend reinvestment and investing.... it was these stories that encouraged me to invest in Tesla a few years ago. I do no want to be telling my grandkids I turned down the opportunity to invest in the largest telecom/utility/transportation company the world will ever know when I am older..... then again, maybe they will go Bankwupt....

 

[omarsultan]

Aside from actual fake news, that is the biggest problem with our media. Most people get their news from social media or best case a soft news show. I doubt more than 10% of people actually read the articles, they just like the headline or dislike it and share based on that.

IMO, the issue is that Tesla is largely at the mercy of strangers to get their story out. By apparently feeding all their scoops to Fred they are now at the mercy of his editorial whims--Elektrek gets syndicated like crazy (kudos for Fred) but that kind of power means Fred often drives the news cycle. We see the same dynamic with the YouTube influencers that Tesla has been chasing as we now start to see rumblings about service or Rich's used Model X. Is Tesla's used car program that bad? I dunno, but there are 600K folks that now think it is and you can bet they will share that when their sister/co-worker/buddy mentions they are looking at a used Tesla.

The whole thing with the Model S/X line could easily have been a way to highlight Tesla's growing manufacturing prowess: "Hey, we have getting so good at this, we can now build the S/X with less folks and re-task those newly freed up folks support our insane Model 3 growth. Instead, you got a muddled message and no one to carry it, so what could have been a positive for the company ends up as "demand is tanking" and combined with the prior random/context-free tweet about 75kWh packs led to speculation that Tesla is cancelling the Model S"--an unforced error that completely lost the news cycle.

As the rest of the company evolves, so must the company's marketing and communication strategy. Word-of-mouth is great when dealing with early adopters and advocates but gets dicey when moving into mainstream buyers who are going to be less forgiving of a brand. Similarly, as we saw last year, while Twitter is powerful platform for Elon, it's also sometimes an imprecise tool.

My fear is Tesla starts to lose control of the EV narrative as legacy manufactures start to get serious about the EV market and bring seasoned pros to bear on shaping market sentiment.

 

[elasalle]

APPL reports a beat, get ready to dance tomorrow

 

[UncaNed]

IMO, the issue is that Tesla is largely at the mercy of strangers to get their story out. By apparently feeding all their scoops to Fred they are now at the mercy of his editorial whims--Elektrek gets syndicated like crazy (kudos for Fred) but that kind of power means Fred often drives the news cycle. We see the same dynamic with the YouTube influencers that Tesla has been chasing as we now start to see rumblings about service or Rich's used Model X. Is Tesla's used car program that bad? I dunno, but there are 600K folks that now think it is and you can bet they will share that when their sister/co-worker/buddy mentions they are looking at a used Tesla.

The whole thing with the Model S/X line could easily have been a way to highlight Tesla's growing manufacturing prowess: "Hey, we have getting so good at this, we can now build the S/X with less folks and re-task those newly freed up folks support our insane Model 3 growth. Instead, you got a muddled message and no one to carry it, so what could have been a positive for the company ends up as "demand is tanking" and combined with the prior random/context-free tweet about 75kWh packs led to speculation that Tesla is cancelling the Model S"--an unforced error that completely lost the news cycle.

As the rest of the company evolves, so must the company's marketing and communication strategy. Word-of-mouth is great when dealing with early adopters and advocates but gets dicey when moving into mainstream buyers who are going to be less forgiving of a brand. Similarly, as we saw last year, while Twitter is powerful platform for Elon, it's also sometimes an imprecise tool.

My fear is Tesla starts to lose control of the EV narrative as legacy manufactures start to get serious about the EV market and bring seasoned pros to bear on shaping market sentiment.

Best observation I've heard all year. Why isn't every decision turned into a free mini-marketing campaign? All it needed was just a little spin...