Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

...and/or they want to clear stock inventory before some sort of hardware updates...

I disagrees because I don't think it is correct. Also, I don't like idle speculation on changes that depress current demand.

 

[EVNow]

That might have been our Tesla investment dollar in the pockets of union officials had Tesla unionized.

There is corruption everywhere. Do you think all the Wall Street corruption has not cost Tesla any money ?

 

[UncaNed]

I think he was joking!

But seriously, 4 motors means we can invent a new car maneuver: Screw doughnuts, we could do a car pirouette - spinning around the center of gravity without translation.

THIS!

Wheeee!

 

[EVNow]

Drone strikes set Saudi oil facilities ablaze

Attacks on Saudi oil facilities

OT : KSA intentionally starving 85,000 kids to death in Yemen doesn't make news, but this does.

 

[KarenRei]

OT : KSA intentionally starving 85,000 kids to death in Yemen doesn't make news, but this does.

Childrens' deaths don't move the oil market. This does. That's just the reality we live in.

The particularly bad part about this news was the Houthi claim that basically said that there were anti-Saud rebels operating in Saudi Arabia helping them. Any potential aggressive crackdown by MBS has the potential to destabilize the country. Saudi Arabia functions on a sort of bargain wherein people don't publicly question the House of Saud's right to rule, and in turn they get a good, oil-funded quality of life. Which is why the Arab Spring had little impact there, vs. in countries with lower qualities of life. But if the general public starts feeling that they're under assault...

That said, I don't think this will spread anywhere near that far. The Houthis have been trying for quite a long time to pressure Saudi Arabia with threats of disruption / instability, but they've not had much effect. I don't see the dynamic changing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

using the the thrusters for vertical force only makes sense if your coefficient of friction is > 1. Otherwise, you are better off using the force directly.

Street legal sports cars have been capablile of over 1 g on the skid pad for many years.

1. Porsche 911 GT3 RS (991 facelift) 1.24 g (12 m/s²)
2. Chevrolet Corvette Z06 (C7) 1.19 g (12 m/s²)
3. Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 1LE Package (Mk VI) 1.18 g (12 m/s²)
4. Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 1.18 g (12 m/s²)
5. Chevrolet Corvette Grand Sport (C7) 1.18 g (12 m/s²)
6. Chevrolet Corvette Z06 Convertible (C7) 1.17 g (11 m/s²)
7. Porsche 911 GT2 RS (991) 1.17 g (11 m/s²)
8. Alfa Romeo Giulia QV 1.17 g (11 m/s²)
9. Ferrari LaFerrari 1.16 g (11 m/s²)
10. Dodge Viper ACR (Mk V) 1.15 g (11 m/s²)

Top 100 "Grip Kings" - fastest cars around skidpad 2019 - FastestLaps.com

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm wondering why the Raven can "only" go 163 mph (262 kmh)? If it has a power output of ~500 kW, then even with higher RPM taper there should in principle be plenty of excess power left to overcome 281 kW of drag plus rolling resistance.

I think the main limiting factor is the RPM of the motor because of the gearing. You can only spin it so fast before the rotor flies apart. (Elon mentioned something along those lines when they upped the top speed on the Model 3, that they found they could safely spin the motor faster.)

 

[CorneliusXX]

Please Mind the Gap. Also:

View attachment 454552
Thank you.

Probably to my own detriment, I'm an enthusiast bear poker.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Probably to my own detriment, I'm an enthusiast bear poker.

Always makes me laugh to see Bears playing poker.

Winter is coming. Time for good bears to take a long snooze.

Cheers!

 

[Stars aligned]

What he is suggesting makes sense but very expensive. And if you move to the new line what about the old tooling from the other lines?

Making the same production improvements to the 3 that is on the Y makes sense (less wiring, one piece rear floor pan) and should improve profit margin on the 3.

I believe most of the tools are robots and can be simply re-programmed.

If yes, there are several possibilities such as 1) let them in use as production capacity needs to be increased, maybe doubled with both Y and 3 in production 2) re-use and re-program old tools / robots for something else, maybe Semi 3) Sell them second hand.

Some of the old processes such as embedding the wire harness can now be automated, and as that was manually, not many expensive tools were needed for. If the new process is much more efficient, it should pay off to upgrade the old lines as well in a relatively short time frame.

Maybe plan is 1) built new line, start producing 3's 2) upgrade old lines to new process 3) start building 3 and Y?

Initially, model Y will likely osborne model 3, so it makes sense when Fremont has the flexibility to build either model on all lines. So they can use most capacity to cope Y demand and later balance as needed.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla Has A Software Business And It's Big!

Tesla Has A Software Business And It's Big!

How Big Is Tesla's Software Business? | Trefis

Their assumption of 50% take rate looks optimistic. Ofcourse they have completely ignored Model Y when calculating revenue for 2021.

ps : Has anyone calculated how much tax-deferred revenue Tesla is adding per quarter ?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I believe most of the tools are robots and can be simply re-programmed.

Indeed. Tesla will need all those robots for cash stacking, once the G-cube factory and FSD are both online.

 

[Christine69420]

Since it's the weekend I post about the Taycan. If you haven't heard it's an electric car from Porsche not yet available in the shops.

A norwegian TM3 user participated in a viewing and had a few interesting comments:

Visning på Rudskogen 14. September

Some impressions anyway:
- The car is taller than I thought. It is wide and looks lower on the pictures than it actually is.
- The driver's seat is very hard, racing chairs have more padding.
- The back seat is very cramped. I almost couldn't get my feet under the front seat and I couldn't put my head on the headrest, the ceiling beam is in the way. I'm 188cm
- The trunk is narrow and shallow but relatively deep. Significantly narrower and lower than the Tesla Model 3

I was hoping this could be a replacement for the Tesla Model S / 3 as a sports car / family car. I've had 911 myself before, and this is roughly a 911 with 4 doors with slightly better rear seat space than the 911.

I have to say I was a little disappointed, so I probably had the wrong hopes. It's a shame to say that, but Taycan won't be the No. 1 car for a toddler family like us.​

 

[Christine69420]

I'm 188cm

About 6"2 on some scale.

 

[capster]

"Soylent brown is made from shorts!" -- misquote from Soylent Green, derived from "Make Room! Make Room!" by Harry Harrison.

Umm, wouldn’t it be a paraphrase, if, as some might suggest, shorts are people too?

 

[dc_h]

I believe most of the tools are robots and can be simply re-programmed.

If yes, there are several possibilities such as 1) let them in use as production capacity needs to be increased, maybe doubled with both Y and 3 in production 2) re-use and re-program old tools / robots for something else, maybe Semi 3) Sell them second hand.

Some of the old processes such as embedding the wire harness can now be automated, and as that was manually, not many expensive tools were needed for. If the new process is much more efficient, it should pay off to upgrade the old lines as well in a relatively short time frame.

Maybe plan is 1) built new line, start producing 3's 2) upgrade old lines to new process 3) start building 3 and Y?

Initially, model Y will likely osborne model 3, so it makes sense when Fremont has the flexibility to build either model on all lines. So they can use most capacity to cope Y demand and later balance as needed.

The new line and common chassis for the 3Y allows a slower rollout of the Y. They can build 1 car and test assembly, check for gaps etc and come back a day or week later for car 2. With a new line they can test new assembly tech without risking existing lines. When the new line equals the old Trent or GA2-4, they can shut a line down, update process and repeat on each line while increasing capacity over the current ~7000 weekly model 3’s.
I have no idea on Y timing, but they will need stamp molds ready early 2020 and to start getting a line ready for testing. GA5 makes sense as either the first dual model GA line, or an updated line with their best methods and hardware in place. I’d guess they’d use ideas gathered for Shanghai and apply and have higher productivity then GA4. As soon as GA5 is ready update GA4 and get a gondola or some improvement to move cars from BIW to GA4&5. Those carts don’t seem practical if they double or triple line speed.

 

[KarenRei]

In case anyone doubts how important having a long-range AWD version of a car is to people in low density / northern countries (a config that simply isn't available from other manufacturers in the Model 3's price range): a local Tesla facebook group did a poll of people who ordered at the opening, asking them what versions they ordered (LR AWD and LR AWD P weren't broken down):

That's a ratio of 31 LR AWD (optionally P) to 1 SR+ RWD

 

[EVNow]

Childrens' deaths don't move the oil market. This does. That's just the reality we live in.

That was my point. In an alternate world, genocidal attempt by KSA would cause massive market disruption because the western democracies that keep talking about "human rights" would actually sanction Saudis. Or atleast not help refuel their planes mid-air to help them carpet bomb civilians in Yemen. Afterall when you get a Nobel Peace Prize, that's the least that is expected.

 

[Fact Checking]

In case anyone doubts how important having a long-range AWD version of a car is to people in low density / northern countries (a config that simply isn't available from other manufacturers in the Model 3's price range): a local Tesla facebook group did a poll of people who ordered at the opening, asking them what versions they ordered (LR AWD and LR AWD P weren't broken down):

View attachment 454635

That's a ratio of 31 LR AWD (optionally P) to 1 SR+ RWD

So out of curiosity I looked up Icelandic new vehicle sales stats:

Iceland car sales data - carsalesbase.com​

The 2009 fall to 2.1k sales from the 16k baseline was brutal. This shows how elastic car sales are in economic crises.

Would be nice to see Tesla reach a good market position - is 10%-20% of the market realistic?

 

[kbM3]

Allow me to be extremely skeptical of 350lbs+ being removed from just the pack.

They also stripped out the seats and perhaps a few other things...

However, I sure the "Like Tesla" video has a reference to a lighter battery pack and it is fairy accurate so far.

Specifically:-
"When asked if it was a 100 kwh pack or larger on these vehicles he just pointed up saying it will be a Lighter and larger battery pack With a bit of Increased performance expected as well. The S and X are expected to shed about 350 lbs in Battery weight which would add also help add to their range as well.

I wondered also and did some calculations:

Based on
Tesla Model 3 Battery Pack & Battery Cell Teardown Highlights Performance Improvements | CleanTechnica

Jack Rickard’s measurements:
Model S pack density = 126.7 Wh / kg
Model 3 pack density = 159.5 Wh / kg

So Model S pack weighs 100,000 Wh / 126.7 Wh / kg = 790 kg
100 kWh Model 3 pack would weigh 100,000 / 159.5 = 627 kg

So just replacing Model S pack with a Model 3 pack scaled to 100 kWh should result in;
790 kg - 627 kg = 163 kg or 360 lbs.