Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[pnungesser]

We kept being told that the new structure off camera to the right was an electrical substation. Not like any substation I've seen in the west. One of photographers claim that a long buried cable is being run to the substation (16 km?). Off camera to the left are some very tall high voltage transmission towers. That seems to be the closest source of power. If your'e not going to run overhead power to the site, the concrete box could be a conduit to bring power to the "substation". I still would prefer overhead since it runs cooler (no need for insulation) and therefore can be a smaller guage. The other issue is that the interior shots show that there are lights on and some power to the machinery, so some power is already on site. What are your thoughts.

 

[dc_h]

Here's the area with the new foundations:

View attachment 455076​

Looks too small to be Phase II though. Maybe a standalone battery production facility?

I was wondering if it would be a pack assembly building. The second phase would also not need to be as large as phase one, since it will not need a stamping facility. That is about 25% of the first building. The first stage could also include pack assembly, which would reduce the size needed for phase 2 even more.
Hard to say without them telling us, or someone on the ground getting some inside scoop - which could be wrong, until confirmed. Exciting times.

 

[Fact Checking]

We kept being told that the new structure off camera to the right was an electrical substation. Not like any substation I've seen in the west. One of photographers claim that a long buried cable is being run to the substation (16 km?). Off camera to the left are some very tall high voltage transmission towers. That seems to be the closest source of power. If your'e not going to run overhead power to the site, the concrete box could be a conduit to bring power to the "substation". I still would prefer overhead since it runs cooler (no need for insulation) and therefore can be a smaller guage. The other issue is that the interior shots show that there are lights on and some power to the machinery, so some power is already on site. What are your thoughts.

I believe Tesla received a 120 KV substation as a capacity expansion. They are building in the middle of nowhere, relatively speaking, and those existing power lines might not have the capacity. The 16 km of cabling might refer to external works performed by the Chinese power company (in record time), to give enough power to the Gigafactory.

Could be wrong though.

 

[Buckminster]

Meanwhile, at GF3, the drainage system is almost complete:

 

[dc_h]

Couple of things to note.
- Even though Sunlight spent 3.5 days in SFO and Cosmos spent 2.5 days - they were at the dock for the same 3 working days ! Sunlight docked in the evening and left early morning. So, only 3 days in between were the loading days. Cosmos was efficient, docking early in the morning and leaving at night, after 3 loading days.
- Oslo loaded for one working day - but we have no idea how many. At SFO they load about 1k to 1.5k cars per day. How many do they normally load at Philly ? Could be as low as 1k or as high as 3k.

To unwind the wave, Tesla needs to send 3 or 4 ships between now and 10th of Oct to EU. They won't do that - and that creates the wave. I think given the bad Q1 result and so much emphasis by the market on ER, Tesla doesn't have the luxury of unwinding the wave - just yet. The wave in China gets unwound starting Q1 '20 - but EU may have to wait for GF4.​

I think the urgency of the wave should recede in Q1. The percent of cars on the water will decline as Shanghai comes online, so if they have 4 ships travelling to Europe at the end of the quarter with 12,000 cars, that will be 5-10% of quarterly deliveries, whereas today it would be 10-15% of deliveries. A China wave focusing deliveries on Shanghai end of Q1 and rest of country could mean percentage of cars in transit could decline, even if ships on the water increased.

 

[dc_h]

The UAW has agreed to temporary extensions of the old contracts with Ford and Fiat-Chrysler until its dispute with GM is settled. Then there could be more or the same contentiousness between the union and the other two.

Of course Tesla workers are not in a union, thus Tesla is not burdened in the manner of legacy automakers.

Hopefully Tesla workers see a big boost in the value of their stock while the other guys are on strike. Not due to strike, just the increased deliveries, opening of Shanghai, release of V10 and GAAP profits in Q3?!

 

[HG Wells]

Its more and more like how they built them in
WHEN WORLDS COLLIDE !

Movie was good. Trailer not so much.

 

[hacer]

3-MOTOR/2-GEAR-RATIO ROADSTER FAST!
DRIVER STAMP FOOT, CAR DISAPPEAR DOWN TRACK!

For those wanting a less dumb version I posted one here Plaid power train (out of investor thread)

 

[CorneliusXX]

Might be nothing more spectacular than a drainage channel for all the surface/rain water collecting on the site and the building at the end of the site might be a pumping station to pump the water out into any public drainage System they have. Might make sense to run such a collector for the length of the site.

I agree with you. In heavy rain the water will sheet across the large expanse of concrete around the loading bay and road, running over the concrete edge into the drainage ditch.

 

[Buckminster]

Will the Pickup get the Plaid powertrain also? Elon didn't include it in his list.

 

[KarenRei]

Will the Pickup get the Plaid powertrain also? Elon didn't include it in his list.

I hope they don't waste time on things like that. Yes, there are some people who race pickups, but that's a very different market than your core pickup market. Pickup owners generally want trucks that can perform great feats of strength and rough-terrain traversal, not great feats of track performance.

I hope they stay focused on pickup range, low-end torque, and ruggedness - and keep the suspension focus on rough terrain and towing rather than the track.

 

[3Victoria]

I hope they don't waste time on things like that. Yes, there are some people who race pickups, but that's a very different market than your core pickup market. Pickup owners generally want trucks that can perform great feats of strength and rough-terrain traversal, not great feats of track performance.

I hope they stay focused on pickup range, low-end torque, and ruggedness - and keep the suspension focus on rough terrain and towing rather than the track.

My guess is that the pickup will have four motors.

 

[Fact Checking]

My guess is that the pickup will have four motors.

That's my guess too - but probably not the $50k version.

 

[mongo]

I believe that is an engineering tunnel from the electrical station being completed. Building that as a tunnel will allow access, rather than building a simple wiring tunnel. This will allow updates to the power supply and ease of access to run new lines to additional structures.

Chicago has a system of tunnels under the city that are used for communications and power. This would be a great market for the Boring company in New York and big older cities. 7 foot tunnels under streets to connect building and avoid digging up roads to drop new comms and power.

Yeah, I was thinking human sized with wall mount conduit/ piping.

We kept being told that the new structure off camera to the right was an electrical substation. Not like any substation I've seen in the west. One of photographers claim that a long buried cable is being run to the substation (16 km?). Off camera to the left are some very tall high voltage transmission towers. That seems to be the closest source of power. If your'e not going to run overhead power to the site, the concrete box could be a conduit to bring power to the "substation". I still would prefer overhead since it runs cooler (no need for insulation) and therefore can be a smaller guage. The other issue is that the interior shots show that there are lights on and some power to the machinery, so some power is already on site. What are your thoughts.

The towers are high voltage transmission line (China is using up to 800kV and 1MV) that connect to a substation. From there, the 220kV line runs underground to the GF3 step down station.

Will the Pickup get the Plaid powertrain also? Elon didn't include it in his list.

Pickup hopefully already has a trim level with high capacity (and thus power) pack for towing along with dual rear motors for towing torque and highway (tow a brick uphill) power. When not towing, that provides plenty of get up and go.

 

[mongo]

My guess is that the pickup will have four motors.

Is dual front motors really worth while? You don't need torque vectoring, most towing weight is on the rear axle, and the traction control plus open diff work well. Two of the smallest motors seem overkill.

 

[brur]

I hope they don't waste time on things like that. Yes, there are some people who race pickups, but that's a very different market than your core pickup market. Pickup owners generally want trucks that can perform great feats of strength and rough-terrain traversal, not great feats of track performance.

I hope they stay focused on pickup range, low-end torque, and ruggedness - and keep the suspension focus on rough terrain and towing rather than the track.

Mostly I agree. The rough terrain bit is a bit off in my mind. Even the most brutish f 150 never sees more dirt than when it edges off the driveway. Rock crawling is another animal. The meat of the market is something that looks 4x4 and is hard to put in the garage.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I agree with you. In heavy rain the water will sheet across the large expanse of concrete around the loading bay and road, running over the concrete edge into the drainage ditch.

The water will sheet, but the expanse is pitched toward the factory.

The ‘expanse’ was poured in strips, alternating. There’s clearly a bias toward the garage doors.

That’s why a trench ditch linear drain thing was set there a few meters from the doors.

 

[KarenRei]

 

[BrianZ]

Get ready for another customer service nightmare.

I bought another Model 3 Performance yesterday after Tesla offered to give me white interior for free and 2 years of free supercharging. Today I just got an e-mail saying they can only honor one of the incentives, not both, AFTER I purchased it. So Tesla offered both incentives to me, in writing, and now they want to back out of it after I agreed and purchased the car? That's not just bad customer service, that's against the law.

Update: I may have to eat some crow for customer service nightmare. Tesla just offered me a P3D with no performance package for $51.5k + 2 year free supercharging. A Model 3 Performance for $51.5k? Hell yes! I may potentially get another $1500 off for the 19" wheels due to the earlier incentive, bringing the car below $50k. That would be too much if also tacked on.

 

[KarenRei]

Update: I may have to eat some crow for customer service nightmare. Tesla just offered me a P3D with no performance package for $51.5k + 2 year free supercharging. A Model 3 Performance for $51.5k? Hell yes! I may potentially get another $1500 off for the 19" wheels due to the earlier incentive, bringing the car below $50k. That would be too much if also tacked on.

Its these sort of discounts that annoy people who pay full price from a company that says it doesn't do discounts.

What exactly were you trying to buy (full config), for what price, and what are they giving you instead (full config), for what price?