Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hacer]

Great to have them go in record that they would expect the Fremont workers to take one for the team and ruin Tesla if they organized.

Yes, this probably will help Tesla when they appeal judge Baman-Tracy's NLRB ruling. Since the UAW's own position is to eliminate the jobs at Tesla, how can it be illegal for Tesla to tell employees that joining the union might jeopardize their jobs.

 

[RobStark]

Now down to 12.


Should have made the spiritual successor to the mini - he initially had the right idea. Low cost, tiny battery, short range for cities has not yet been done.

Less economically viable than selling BEVs above Tesla's price range.

Especially so for a new entrant.

Less moving the needle for reducing C02 into the atmosphere.

 

[RobStark]

Can’t help but feel this is what Model 3 should have been all along, but maybe I’ll feel differently after getting to see one in person.

EDIT: Also, ew.

1)It would have pegged BEVs as not sexy.

2) It would add $1k-$1.5 of cost to add structural rigidity for hatchback, add the hatch, and add cells to keep same range as Model 3 when Elon was desperately trying to make a profitable compelling $35k BEV in his war of pennies.

 

[RobStark]

I suppose, but I think the Model Y will more likely osborne ICE and hybrid small SUVs and crossovers. For example, anyone considering a new Prius right now would be crazy not to think about waiting for the Y if they can afford it.

US sales of Prius peaked in 2012 at 236k units and last year were 88k.

There isn't much left to osbourne. What is left is very risk averse environmentalist and people that swear they won't switch until BEVs have a Prius like 500 miles of range for under $30k.

They will get sales from everywhere but the more Tesla's are out there in the $35k plus market the bigger chance for cannibalization.

Model 3 has also done a number on US LEAF and Bolt sales.

 

[SpaceCash]

Holy *sugar*. I will gladly watch GM wither away.....

I'm tempted to start my first short position of all time

 

[Causalien]

The UAW now explicitly demanding de-prioritization of EVs and autonomous vehicles. How can people be so short-sighted? Makes me a bit sad for the folks who have been fooled into thinking they can stop this transition. Then again it's not that hard to see coming, so perhaps I should save my sympathy for people whose vicissitudes are more severe and less of their own making.

Sometimes we sidestep issues out of pure luck and then gets soaked in cold sweat when we realizes the implication of something that happened long ago which seems to have nothing to do with the current issue.

This is one of those time. It's like asking your boss to give the AI programmer job to the plumber at the plant otherwise they'd stop fixing your plumbing.

 

[SpaceCash]

Here are my Tesla thank yous:
Thank you PG&E for making people understand the reason for a powerwall and solar.
Thank you Porsche for bringing out the Taycan, may it run faster than all of its ICE porsche brethren.
Thank you NIO for showing tesla how its not done.
Thank you drone operator for showing the world, step by step, how oil price manipulation works.
Thank you journalists for ignoring range anxiety in tesla killers.
Thank you Nurburgring raising the bar and getting tesla to wrap its cars at warp speed on your track.
Thank you cambridge analytica and facebook for showing the world how propaganda works and laying the roadmap to do this for other areas besides elections.
Thank you volatile organic compounds released at the gas station (in texas there are no hoods over the pumps) to make me realize how much i miss the gas station.
Thank you state of Texas for making electricity so cheap, but i'm told my home gas station installation is coming soon, so not sure what to do with all that cheap electricity.
Thank you UAW for exposing the US automanufacturers increased costs, so that they may be forced to go to EVs just to survive by costs alone.
Thank you for ignoring this post, since it is so poorly written it cannot be considered poetry.
IF by mistake reach the end of this post, and have not ignored, deleted or disagreed, please add more thank yous...

Thank you Shorty Air Force for collectively losing your minds and calling for revenge pedophila (Spiegel, about Greta), and gun violence towards Teslas (random StockTwits guy, probably Spiegel), you guys have really made it obvious who's on the right side of the issue here.

That's funny. I've long said I don't trust the short interest numbers Dusaniwsky publishes for free, out of the goodness of his heart, right?

The fact that the major exchanges don't provide up-to-the-minute and accurate short-selling transparency (why should regular buying/selling have more transparency than short-selling/covering?) leaves a huge hole for manipulative misinformation. If the void exists, someone is going to fill it and you can bet they don't have your best interest in mind. There is always a motivation for what people do. At first, I was open to the possibility that his motivation was simply to get attention (which is a surprisingly popular motivation) and that he might be publishing credible numbers. But I discarded that possibility long ago. It's been pretty obvious for months now that he is just another tool of the short-sellers.

Preach. That guy is full of it.

 

[EVNow]

What is left is very risk averse environmentalist

Whats left is uber / Lyft drivers.

I don't know whether it is particular to Seattle - but atleast 50% of uber/lyft I see here are Prius.

 

[cardood]

As far as Q3 2019 report:

- Anybody here still holding hope that this will not be the first quarter on quarter and quarter over quarter revenue decline for Tesla since 2012?
- Anybody still think they will keep guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 deliveries for 2019?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Probably.

I’ll tell you what I will do. Determined not to be duped yet again, I will sell right before the call in anticipation of the pattern. Then it will inexplicably jump to new highs and I will be left with so much regret while the rest of you ride it up.

#teamplayer

Takin' one for the team!

Dan

 

[Maitri982]

Big oil acts like gasoline magically appears from nowhere, so it's not prone to disruption like electricity is.

I note that electric is the only fuel you can generate for free with your own solar system. Can't do that with gas. Please don't mention fuel cells.

 

[uselesslogin]

As far as Q3 2019 report:

- Anybody here still holding hope that this will not be the first quarter on quarter and quarter over quarter revenue decline for Tesla since 2012?
- Anybody still think they will keep guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 deliveries for 2019?

No and Yes.

 

[flabellina]

As far as Q3 2019 report:

- Anybody here still holding hope that this will not be the first quarter on quarter and quarter over quarter revenue decline for Tesla since 2012?
- Anybody still think they will keep guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 deliveries for 2019?

1) 10% chance
2) 90% chance

 

[StealthP3D]

Are we going to run up to ER and be in the exact same spot (high 250s) as last quarter only to fall off a cliff the next day?

If by a "cliff" you mean a drop to $220's, I doubt it. It might be time for a bit of a post-earnings rally. Something I'm sure most of us would welcome. Obviously, it depends upon the report.

You asked the question, what do you think?

 

[StealthP3D]

2) It would add $1k-$1.5 of cost to add structural rigidity for hatchback, add the hatch, and add cells to keep same range as Model 3 when Elon was desperately trying to make a profitable compelling $35k BEV in his war of pennies.

Musk said the incremental cost to produce Model Y vs. Model 3 will be minimal.

 

[RobStark]

Musk said the incremental cost to produce Model Y vs. Model 3 will be minimal.

Perhaps, after several upgrades to the manufacturing process gained from Model 3 experience.

Like the hard wire harness and the one piece rear end machine.

The cost difference wouldn't have been minimal in 2017.

 

[woodisgood]

If by a "cliff" you mean a drop to $220's, I doubt it. It might be time for a bit of a post-earnings rally. Something I'm sure most of us would welcome. Obviously, it depends upon the report.

You asked the question, what do you think?

I’ve only been following the SP closely for about a year, so a relative newb especially to the way the shorting and market manipulation comes into play with this particular stock.

I’m not going after short-term gains the way some traders might as I doubt I’d be very good at it. In regards to your question though, FWIW, I do expect the stock to drop after this ER (as usual), but I’m really optimistic about what things look like with the pickup reveal, an early Y ramp, Shanghai, and the battery supply chain falling into place leading into Battery Investor Day, which will give us some specific insights into how exactly Tesla will accomplish what we can already surmise they’re trying to do. Like many others I see a freight train that can be slowed but can’t be stopped. I’m no expert like many on this forum, but it’s hard for me to envision sub-350 in Spring 2020 barring economic crisis. That all being said, I know sentiments have been similar before, and here we are.

 

[sparcs]

but I’m really optimistic about what things look like with the pickup reveal, an early Y ramp, Shanghai, and the battery supply chain falling into place leading into Battery Investor Day, which will give us some specific insights into how exactly Tesla will accomplish what we can already surmise they’re trying to do.

just don't expect those announcements to have any short term impact on the share price. The market is in a "show me" mode for TSLA so they will want to see that Tesla is able ramp and deliver those products. Autonomy Investor Day and Model Y reveal did basically nothing for the share price.

It's important that GF3 ramps up better than the Fremont Model 3 ramp. Just getting GF3 built isn't going to cut it for the share price.

 

[KarenRei]

As far as Q3 2019 report:

- Anybody here still holding hope that this will not be the first quarter on quarter and quarter over quarter revenue decline for Tesla since 2012?

What, you mean during the period when they went from a company relying on a massive number of US backorders and selling with a $7500 US tax credit, to a company with no backorders in the US, W. Europe and Scandinavia and selling with a $1750 US tax credit?

No. Because it's FCF that matters most in practice, while the markets seem to care more about net income. Revenue is several entries down the list.

- Anybody still think they will keep guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 deliveries for 2019?

Rephrase: anybody not think they will keep guidance of 360-400k?

If so, how? They hit 360k with only the most trivial increase in Fremont and ~5k in China.

 

[Electroman]

As far as Q3 2019 report:

- Anybody still think they will keep guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 deliveries for 2019?

350K for sure. 360k - I give them 20%.