Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

That was a good guess until we saw profit-taking on the NASDAQ going into close, which set up a similar dip in TSLA, which then allowed both the hedge funds and market makers to make a push for 247.50, which has more calls than puts.

It looked pretty dramatic to me - and not in a good way!

 

[Steve m]

The problem was that 99% of the people were uneducated and might go their entire life without talking to an educated person. And even if an educated person told them the world was round, it would have been dismissed as crazy "ivory tower" talk.

How has that changed?

 

[Tslynk67]

That was a good guess until we saw profit-taking on the NASDAQ going into close, which set up a similar dip in TSLA, which then allowed both the hedge funds and market makers to make a push for 247.50, which has more calls than puts.

Yeah, there were 21k calls at $250, so that was a big no-no...

 

[KarenRei]

Predictable AF.

Just macros.

 

[Steve m]

Yeah, there were 21k calls at $250, so that was a big no-no...

Looks like the whole market dipped at the end.

 

[dha]

We just closed at the highest level since Q2 earnings--I will consider that a win. Have a lovely weekend everybody.

 

[Unpilot]

Just macros.

So this is what "getting tired of winning" feels like?

 

[Causalien]

If they think Tesla is going to bail them out on the cheap, after all the blood, sweat and tears they have expended, you've got another think coming. By the time the car industry is on the brink of "electrify or die", Tesla would rather watch the makers of gas cars fail than sell them electric drivetrains for smaller margins than the market will bear. Since there is a finite amount of drivetrains they will be going to the highest bidder.

Maybe bailout one.
First let one or two fail so that the market knows there will be no bailout. So when the third one happens, the assets gets devalued instantly.
But only after the bankruptcy process have gotten rid of the UAW first... TBH. I don't think they need to be bailed out. TSLA only needs their factory space and maybe the stamping and painting equipments. The rest are not compatible.

Now imagine this. If you really think about it. The only thing worthwhile in a legacy automaker to an EV maker are those scraps, they are not worth much.

 

[Tslynk67]

So now we have agre

Looks like the whole market dipped at the end.

Indeed, $TSLA followed Nasdaq very closely at the end - thanks to earlier manipulation to keep it below $250, of course...

We just closed at the highest level since Q2 earnings--I will consider that a win. Have a lovely weekend everybody.

Yeah, I wanted a $250 close, but I'll take it

So this is what "getting tired of winning" feels like?

A now we have a trade deal in "phases", so expect more and more and more of this nonsense...

 

[Doggydogworld]

I wish I could get to 31 billion for 2019 and 47B for 2020. I was thinking about unit growth, but typed as revenue growth.

I think 2019 revenue will grow 15.5% compared to 2018:
2018 (3.409, 4.002, 6.824, 7.226, total $21.46B)
2019 (4.541, 6.35, 6.5, 7.4, total $24.79B)

For future years:
2020 27B (80k S/X @$90k; 350k Model 3 @$45k; 30k Model Y @$50k; plus $2.7B energy etc.)
2021 42B (80k S/X @$90k; 300k Model 3 @$45k; 300k Model Y @$50k; $1.4B semi and pickup; $4.8B energy)
2022 59B
2023 86B
2024 137B
2025 153B (100k S/X @80k; 600k 3 @$38k; 1.5m Y @40k; 100k semi; 400k pickup truck; $12B energy, etc.)
Average revenue growth 35% per year. I gave very little weight to Tesla Network revenue, I might be surprised big time in this area.

I don't understand why TSLAQ group can't see what's coming.

OK, this makes sense. I think you're a bit high for Q3/Q4 but definitely low for 2020. If Tesla guides to 27b revenue next year the "growth story is over" meme will really take hold. I see 32-35b based on 75k S/X and ~450k 3/Y plus 4b for Energy/Service.

TSLAQ is just fanatical noise. The real bears see a falling margin/dilution story.

Could someone remind how/why the projections for Q1/20 made by Elon at the last ER were so dire? If the wave seems to be unfolding nicely...

Why do you say the wave is unwinding?

Q1 is seasonally bad for cars and especially for EVs. Subsidy stepdowns add to this - e.g. Tesla will basically go to zero in the Netherlands in Q1. The US will also take a hit, though nothing like this year. China is OK in January then dies with the Chinese New Year. I expect Tesla to dial Fremont Model 3 production back in January and re-deploy people to start bringing the Model Y line up.

 

[copyhacker]

But there are mounting signs that the bubble is bursting as China scales back handouts in the sector and competition heats up..

How is the bubble bursting AND competition heating up? That makes zero sense.

 

[KarenRei]

Subsidy stepdowns add to this - e.g. Tesla will basically go to zero in the Netherlands in Q1

It'll drop, but "go to zero" is hyperbole. EVs still remain a vastly cheaper option in NL than ICEs, even after the phasedown.

China is OK in January then dies with the Chinese New Year

Tesla is going to be trying to catch up with a "locally-made SR backlog" for half a year.

I expect Tesla to dial Fremont Model 3 production back in January and re-deploy people to start bringing the Model Y line up.

Tesla will continue its market expansion. Nothing is going to be "idled".

 

[lklundin]

Love a bit of Eddie!

OT (Since the markets have closed for the week-end).
Yes, Eddie Izzard is an interesting person.
My sister and I had a chance to talk with him, as part of the documentary "Meet the Izzards".
(If anyone happens to see it, don't worry, I am hardly recognizable since I was quite overweight at that time).

Btw, although I to bought my LR AWD M3 this summer I also managed to accumulate a lot of shares during the spring and have lowered my average buying price nicely. I took the Model 3 for a ride on a ADAC technical driving course and answered some Tesla questions, these days I am giving a couple of test rides every week. All good fun...

 

[sparcs]

This is Edward Niedermeyer. Possibly the longest serving TSLAQ veteran and FUD publisher.

He doesn't have any expertise or understanding of battery technology, EV technology or just innovation generally.

Just an update to this guy... it looks like he got fired from TheDrive

E.W. "Useless Tube" Niedermeyer on Twitter

"That's because there has been a shift in its tech coverage strategy to one that does not accommodate my approach to covering mobility, and I have parted ways with the site."

i.e. TheDrive ran out of room for publishing TSLAQ propaganda and fired his ass.

 

[Doggydogworld]

It'll drop, but "go to zero" is hyperbole. EVs still remain a vastly cheaper option in NL than ICEs, even after the phasedown.

Leasing companies there are buying enough inventory to last ~6 months into 2020. They will buy no cars in Q1 and few in Q2.

Tesla is going to be trying to catch up with a "locally-made SR backlog" for half a year.

As long as no Tesla exec says anything about Hong Kong

There is pent-up demand in China, but how much? I've seen no data and the price delta isn't that dramatic. I figure they'll make 15-20k cars there in Q1 but sales of imported Model 3s will drop ~90%. The net effect won't move the needle.

Tesla will continue its market expansion. Nothing is going to be "idled".

I said dialed back, not idled. Q1 is the obvious time to do it.

 

[moneyburner1]

I wish I could get to 31 billion for 2019 and 47B for 2020. I was thinking about unit growth, but typed as revenue growth.

I think 2019 revenue will grow 15.5% compared to 2018:
2018 (3.409, 4.002, 6.824, 7.226, total $21.46B)
2019 (4.541, 6.35, 6.5, 7.4, total $24.79B)

For future years:
2020 27B (80k S/X @$90k; 350k Model 3 @$45k; 30k Model Y @$50k; plus $2.7B energy etc.)
2021 42B (80k S/X @$90k; 300k Model 3 @$45k; 300k Model Y @$50k; $1.4B semi and pickup; $4.8B energy)
2022 59B
2023 86B
2024 137B
2025 153B (100k S/X @80k; 600k 3 @$38k; 1.5m Y @40k; 100k semi; 400k pickup truck; $12B energy, etc.)
Average revenue growth 35% per year. I gave very little weight to Tesla Network revenue, I might be surprised big time in this area.

I don't understand why TSLAQ group can't see what's coming.

What will drive the $900 Mio in Q4 vs Q3 2019 in Revenue?

Thanks a lot for your feedback

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Maybe bailout one.
First let one or two fail so that the market knows there will be no bailout. So when the third one happens, the assets gets devalued instantly.
But only after the bankruptcy process have gotten rid of the UAW first... TBH. I don't think they need to be bailed out. TSLA only needs their factory space and maybe the stamping and painting equipments. The rest are not compatible.

Now imagine this. If you really think about it. The only thing worthwhile in a legacy automaker to an EV maker are those scraps, they are not worth much.

I think we collectively have to let go of the idea that Tesla will buy empty car factories. Fremont was a unique opportunity at a moment when Tesla was cash constrained, and was glad if it could just survive. It will be their last refurbished factory. All future car factories, and GF3 is the first example, will be built from the ground up with extreme efficiency in mind. The inefficient design of old car factories would only be a drag for a company that wants to become the most efficient car producer in the world.

 

[Buckminster]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
China deal pretty much a done deal.

 

[KarenRei]

Leasing companies there are buying enough inventory to last ~6 months into 2020. They will buy no cars in Q1 and few in Q2.

Don't get me wrong, it'll decline plenty. But there are companies that buy rather than lease, there still are private cars (not benefitting from the tax difference, but there's still a huge fuel price difference), etc.

As long as no Tesla exec says anything about Hong Kong

Yeah, no kidding.

There is pent-up demand in China, but how much? I've seen no data and the price delta isn't that dramatic

Check out the wait times on locally-made Model 3s. 6-10 months.

People have been putting off purchases to buy local Model 3s. Which is not at all illogical.

sales of imported Model 3s will drop ~90%

That's the whole point of GF3.

I said dialed back, not idled. Q1 is the obvious time to do it.

Maybe some relatively brief downtimes. But Tesla does not do "dialing back" except when absolutely necessary. They'll expand markets as necessary to continue selling every Model 3 they can make.

 

[wipster]

A good line is "Well, you can't see and smell the electrons that power the car in the same way you can with gasoline, however, they are every bit as real. This car is *full* of electrons! When you feel the strong, silent thrust forward, and then drive it for hours on end without running out, you will know what I mean."

That supposes they know what an electron is...