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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I get it for anyone who feels he should be ignored, but from what I recall the only time he was significantly wrong was earlier this year (and boy, was he wrong). This feels like it is shaping up to be the same thing. But I don't feel like I should write it off until it is proven wrong -- so I'm going to continue watching and check it again when the next official numbers come out. If it happens again I probably will start ignoring him as well.

You can guess the short trends more accurately than taking Ihor's word at face value.

Isn't most of his business with short-sellers? It would make sense for him to be on his client's side.
 
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Important if true. Is there any way we can confirm this?

If I'm understanding this correctly, if true this would refute the warranty service idea causing the bad margins in service.
WE provide a manufacturer’s warranty on all new and used vehicles, production powertrain components and systems and energy storage products we sell. In addition, we also provide a warranty on the installation and components of the solar energy systems we sell for periods typically between 10 to 30 years. We accrue a warranty reserve for the products sold by us, which includes our best estimate of the projected costs to repair or replace items under warranties and recalls when identified. These estimates are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims. These estimates are inherently uncertain given our relatively short history of sales, and changes to our historical or projected warranty experience may cause material changes to the warranty reserve in the future. The warranty reserve does not include projected warranty costs associated with our vehicles subject to lease accounting and our solar energy systems under lease contracts or PPAs, as the costs to repair these warranty claims are expensed as incurred. The portion of the warranty reserve expected to be incurred within the next 12 months is included within accrued liabilities and other while the remaining balance is included within other long-term liabilities on the consolidated balance sheets. Warranty expense is recorded as a component of cost of revenues in the consolidated statements of operations. Accrued warranty activity consisted of the following (in thousands):
 
The Pioneers Project on Twitter

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Teslas have extra hard glass though, and I'm pretty sure several different window materials. Have you tested these devices on each glass window to make sure they will work in an emergency?
I have, I can guarantee there is no special glass on Tesla’s as this is me taking the rear glass on an X Tuesday. All side glass on all Tesla’s is tempered. As a FF/Paramedic in my opinion these escape devices are a complete waste of money. First, after one or more impacts the device is not going to be where you would expect it to be. Second, anybody that involved in an accident is going to be less than calm resulting in the lack of ability to recall and or find such device.
 

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I've never seen a software system employees didn't complain about. It doesn't matter if it's a point-of-sale system in a restaurant, a word processor in a small office or a database in a huge corporation. If an employee has to use it, they are going to complain about how it works.
Many of them, particularly the in-house ones, look as if they were state of the art circa 1970.
 
Apologies to Neil Diamond and The Monkees:

I thought Musk was pretty much a fairytale
And TSLA stock was just a bust for me...
Shorts were out to get us,
That's the way it seemed,
Falling prices haunted all my dreams...

Then I saw Q3,
Now I'm a believer!
You can see
No FUD in my eyes
I'm in love, I'm a believer, I couldn't leave Tesla if I tried...
 
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Yeah, Ihor was off not just off by 2.2 million shares, but note the trend of steady short covering he reported after October 15:

View attachment 469667

If that's wrong too then his TSLA short interest numbers as of yesterday might be off by ~3 million shares, which is a substantial error.

In principle it might also be possible that short interest increased further before Q3.

Potentially a lot of shorts got trapped, with near record short interest.

At this point I consider Ihor's numbers wild guesses. We all probably can guess better.

Yesterday a Tesla short said he bought Twitter weekly Calls and Tesla weekly Puts to trade the earnings, I guess that didn't go well. He said he was very sure TSLA would drop to 220 or even 180. Even if for rare case TSLA goes to 300 after earnings, he plan to short more because the stock will never see that level again. He probably suffered on earnings option play, and now shorted even more TSLA. Lots of shorts think TSLA eventually will drop to zero, they view any jump as shorting opportunity. I don't understand how their mind can go so wrong.
 
Important if true. Is there any way we can confirm this?

If I'm understanding this correctly, if true this would refute the warranty service idea causing the bad margins in service.
Is a manufacturer's product warranty part of its manufacturing overhead or is it part of its SG&A expense?
The costs associated with a manufacturer's product warranty are part of its selling expenses and therefore part of its SG&A expenses.

If the future costs of the warranty coverage are probable and can be estimated, they are recorded at the time of the sale. The accounting entry will debit Warranty Expense and will credit Warranty Liability. If the estimated warranty costs are recorded at the time of the sale, the actual costs of the repair work or the replacement of the product during the warranty period will be debited to the Warranty Liability account—thereby reducing the liability balance.
 
Important if true. Is there any way we can confirm this?

If I'm understanding this correctly, if true this would refute the warranty service idea causing the bad margins in service.
Actually neither. According to accountingcoach.com:

The costs associated with a manufacturer's product warranty are part of its selling expenses and therefore part of its SG&A expenses.

If the future costs of the warranty coverage are probable and can be estimated, they are recorded at the time of the sale. The accounting entry will debit Warranty Expense and will credit Warranty Liability. If the estimated warranty costs are recorded at the time of the sale, the actual costs of the repair work or the replacement of the product during the warranty period will be debited to the Warranty Liability account—thereby reducing the liability balance.

Don't know if Tesla estimates it's warranty costs or not, but the above makes sense.
 
what's the non FUD perspective on this? Tesla driver burnt to death in car 'because futuristic doors wouldn’t open'

it's making the rounds with my family and its super annoying, need to beat this down.

Um, smash the windows? Use the jaws of life? Lots of car doors aren't opened by pulling the handle after a collision because they're deformed from the impact. Nothing new, but tragic, nonetheless. Can understand the family's anger and sadness.

But apparently we have a FF here in @Joshker so maybe he can weigh in for expert opinion?
 
Lots of shorts think TSLA eventually will drop to zero, they view any jump as shorting opportunity. I don't understand how their mind can go so wrong.
In 2119 the Acme Teletransport Company might be taking off and the sclerotic Tesla managers might refuse to accept that change is coming and anyway it would be too difficult to disinvest from their 28 factories and zero SP might follow. So the short prediction could eventually come true.
 
These people are so deluded, so out-of-touch with reality, they actually think they are battling evil. It's sad but hilarious at the same time.

The sad thing about this particular story is that the only thing he has left to offer his "fellow" shorts is a beach volleyball lesson! Probably lost the $50,000 inheritance from grandma and grandpa and is *still* living in mom's basement.

It's a classic case of a mediocre person who believed he has above average intelligence and on top of that, he has a hidden gambling addiction tendency.

The reason why I said this is because he isn't able to read an article and determine for himself the merit of its statements (fully believing in news articles written by Dana Hall instead of realizing 10 years ago that the business models of newspaper in an internet age means they've been captured by monetary interests instead of truth). Isn't smart enough to know that everything is grey, nor has the smarts to know the steps he needs to take (or just doesn't have the connections to do such checks) to arrive at the logical truth behind the scenes. Sure, Elon had to do certain things to drum up interest, but from my point of view these are standard practices of a SV startup. It is necessary to drum up interest and venture capital. However, for people who've never done the same thing before, they do not have the correct frame of reference to judge whether or not these practices are above to go haywire.

That is why I said a long time ago that Tesla needs to show profit. "Every corporation is a Fraud until it isn't"

TSLA, could've become Theranos or WeWork. But was spared due to the crucial differences in their CEOs.

In comparisons to Theranos. Elon actually has the technical know how and a team that can achieve the technical breakthroughs. As an investor who doesn't have the technical know how to determine this, the other tell is how transparent Tesla is with their technology vs Theranos utmost secrecy. The transparency allows anyone to go to an expert they know and ask if it is true. Sadly, I believe most TSLAQ read the report from paid Short researchers instead of doing their independent verification.

As for the comparison to WeWork. I think the way they went about doing business is very similar. WeWork could've potentially succeeded if they retained their ability to raise fund till one day in the future they are able to raise prices on tenants and lower cost from efficiency of scale. However the CEO made the crucial mistake of showing his true colors before the IPO. His greed was so extreme that there's no way to hide it in the IPO filing. The difference between the two is a CEO who takes every occasion he has to gain wealth personally from the company he started, vs a CEO who pluck down everything he has when the company is about to fall apart.

These are lessons that everyone should remember when participating in future startups.
 
what's the non FUD perspective on this? Tesla driver burnt to death in car 'because futuristic doors wouldn’t open'

it's making the rounds with my family and its super annoying, need to beat this down.

What, the guy who drove at highway speeds into a tree? There's a normal emergency release inside the car, unrelated to how the handles open from the outside. And as for the outside, accident sensors trigger the doors to unlock, assuming that the mechanism is still functional.

So the door mechanism broke in a highway-speed accident? Yeah, what else is new? People spent years inventing devices to cut away doors because getting stick is what doors do in accidents.

1220_jaws-of-life-1000x1060.jpg
 
My hunch is that they are hoping for some changes in accounting assumptions.

E.g. if tesla have reevaluated the expected lives of their assets/equipment and think they can produce more vehicles with the same equipment they can reduce the costs attributable to each vehicle.

This is a totally legitimate decision if Teslas expectations have changed, but easy pickings for shorts to spin.

S & X tooling has likely exhausted units of production volume basis--which (along with no impairment in 3Q19) could be part of the reason Depreciation, Amortization And Impairment decreased Q over Q from $579 MM to $530 MM while autos produced increased over 10 percent.
 
WE provide a manufacturer’s warranty on all new and used vehicles, production powertrain components and systems and energy storage products we sell. In addition, we also provide a warranty on the installation and components of the solar energy systems we sell for periods typically between 10 to 30 years. We accrue a warranty reserve for the products sold by us, which includes our best estimate of the projected costs to repair or replace items under warranties and recalls when identified. These estimates are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims. These estimates are inherently uncertain given our relatively short history of sales, and changes to our historical or projected warranty experience may cause material changes to the warranty reserve in the future. The warranty reserve does not include projected warranty costs associated with our vehicles subject to lease accounting and our solar energy systems under lease contracts or PPAs, as the costs to repair these warranty claims are expensed as incurred. The portion of the warranty reserve expected to be incurred within the next 12 months is included within accrued liabilities and other while the remaining balance is included within other long-term liabilities on the consolidated balance sheets. Warranty expense is recorded as a component of cost of revenues in the consolidated statements of operations. Accrued warranty activity consisted of the following (in thousands):

But "Goodwill" work does count as a warranty expense. Wouldn't that (and the time spent stocking the service center and maintaining it's equipment) count as COGS for service, and thus negatively affect it's margins?
 
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