Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Wow! I've often thought Honda had pretty sophisticated, nice-looking designs but apparently, they have taken it to another level! Best looking Honda I've ever seen! Did they hire a new designer? /s

 

[RobStark]

I love my Sea Dweller, so sorry, bad analogy.

Rolex (and other over-priced luxury watch owners) love the idea of ridiculously over-engineered mechanical status symbols. That would be analogous to Porsche in my mind.

Porsche::Rolex
Tesla::Apple Watch
Bollinger::G-Shock

.

A plastic rubber digital watch that cost $50-$400 bucks is the Bollinger?

You are lucky making threats get you permanently banned on this board.

How about Bollinger as Bell & Ross

 

[MP3Mike]

PM me if you want the details.

I would if I could, but you have your account locked.

 

[RobStark]

So you agree with me, Bollinger will never amount to anything worth discussing further.

And just so you know, it's absolutely false that the occupants in a vehicle like the Bollinger will fare well when it crashes into an immovable object. Weight is actually a negative when you hit a solid tree or rock wall and the lack of airbags is a real danger. Even a side impact by another truck running a red light could kill you much easier than in a small car with airbags like the Model 3 or a regular pickup with airbags.

Selling 3k-5K Bollingers per year in the USA warrants its further discussion.

It is a brand that will make BEVs very cool to a whole new group of people and in a very different way than Tesla.

My statement is absolutely true that big heavy trucks with seat belts do well in real world crashes.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Shits going to all time highs where it deserves to be by November mark this post

Marked. Congrats! Your cat got out of the tortilla!

 

[StealthP3D]

I was like that on the way down around 280. By the time it got to 180, not so much. I ran out of money already

How did you know that was the last stop?

I think you are trivializing the pain many of us endured

No, not trivializing anything. I was well down at that point as well. But I never invest money I can't afford to lose and I don't consider a paper loss "pain", particularly if the loss is temporary. Sure, I don't like seeing the value of my investment drop, but it's not pain. If you're going to play the game you have to be willing to accept the consequences. It's only pain if you're doing something you shouldn't be doing or not willing to accept the consequences.

Witness the TSLAQ guy linked to here (earlier today) who just lost his entire net worth shorting TSLA. He was wrong about a lot of things but he sure had the right *attitude* about his investment and other "fellow" TSLAQ members. He actually thanked them for the life lesson and took full responsibility for his actions. No investor is *owed* success or anything else. You get what you sow. And only if the "weather" cooperates. If you can't deal with that, you shouldn't play the game.

To answer your question, I didn't know it was the bottom. But it looked like there was a very good chance it wouldn't go much lower, that the FUD has played itself out to the end. In any case, I was prepared to possibly ride it down further rather than pay more than I did on the way up. Also, I had a pretty good idea why it was falling. FUD and over-reaction to weak results and misrepresentations. I don't try to catch falling knives if I'm not sure why they are falling. But the TSLAQ crowd has been very transparent (their reasons don't stand up to scrutiny) so once I made the decision to jump in, I jumped in with glee.

Rather than saying I'm trivializing the "pain" you felt, you should be thanking me for doing what I could to help bring the price out of the depths.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Wut up homies?! Are we mooning yet? Where is @SpaceCash and @StealthP3D? Whose house is the party at this weekend?

All right, though seriously, I'm not popping the champagne yet. Nor willing to margin up or by LEAPS. But I have a good sized stock only position (with limited margin) and made some options money on the move up yesterday, which I converted to stock. I have no idea what the stock is going to do. Either I'm jaded or just confused. We've been here many times. It's a big move with a big gap, and we all know TSLA likes to fill the gaps, and there are even gaps below 250. But unlike previous times, I'm not convinced that this will go back down and fill. This was a major gap up, almost like a so-called "break away" gap, which could end up permanently trapping shorts below.

The stock is really behaving unusual IMO. If you look at the multi-year chart, you'll see that it bounced between approx 180-280 for years and then between 280-380 for some more years. It then had a technical break below 280 support this past spring. At this point, I expected it to either continue falling, or go back into its old range of 180-280, or make a V shape recovery. It now doesn't appear to be doing the former two, so the V shape recovery appears to be on the table. I stated previously that it would take either significant time or sig news to get back above the technical break of 280. The market has determined that this was that news. So this is what I'm hoping for, a V shaped rapid recovery with maybe a minor pullback and partial gap fill, and (eventually) new all time highs. With that said, I'm not willing to bet on it in leveraged fashion. Because we all know how TSLA can be. But to each, their own.

The other two possibilities I see are: that it's a head fake and we quickly fade back down back below into the 180-280 range. We will know whether this is true shortly. Or, second, that it forms a completely new pattern than before, where it freely moves between a new wider range between 180-380. That scenario would just royally suck IMO. As if it isn't bad enough that we had to bounce around in a 100 point range multiple times a year. 200 point range would just be hell. An example of this would be that it goes up to 320-340 (or even 380) and then goes all the way back down to 180 again. That would just suck, esp if you got leaps or other options (personally, if I bought Leaps at 180, I would liquidate them now and convert to shares, as it would just hurt too much to see those leaps come back to 180 -- been there, done that.) This is why I'm just holding shares. Yes, it takes longer till we get rewarded, but much less stress. I only give up opportunity cost and maybe minor margin interest expense.

Anyway, just some thoughts on the matter. Not advice. Good luck to all!

 

[Prunesquallor]

So uncouth. I’d rather they be trampled beneath the feet of a herd of elephants. But, I’m flexible.

Naw, more like "The Mountain and the Viper" (but without the long-term consequences).

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Only goodwill work attributable to a warrantied condition would be a warranty expense. And the fact that it is is "goodwill" implicitly implies that Tesla does not think it is warranty work (either due to the warranty being expired or the issue not being covered under warranty).

What you are claiming makes no sense. It wouldn't be called "goodwill" unless you would normally have to pay for it. And warranty work, by definition, is not billed to the owner.

stupid auto-correct. Meant to write "goodwill work doesn't count as a warranty expense". I was on the same page. Brian understood that in his response. But I think FC's response accounted for the -20% gross margin far better than goodwill work every now and then.

 

[brian45011]

The reason is pretty clear to me. Selling used ICE cars is not their core mission and it detracts from designing manufacturing and delivering the best cars the planet has ever seen.

Also, do you really want to make your technicians deal with oil contaminated with combustion by-products and gasoline that is contaminated, well, because it's gasoline?

Tesla takes zero used ICE vehicles as trade-ins; they match whatever wholesale value the appraisers from CarMax Cars.com, AutoNation, CarBuyersUSA, etc. put in writing, ceding the resale profits to those enterprises. Tesla no longer re-habs lease returns and traded-in Tesla models. It's Tesla's business decision, but the vast majority of those service techs own and drive Oil/Gasoline contaminated ICE vehicles. Go figure.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Shits going to all time highs where it deserves to be by November mark this post

Lol! Okay!! I want it in writing.... uh, never mind.

You loading up on Nov 400 calls then? 14 cents ask. Why don't you bust the open interest on that and buy a 1000 contracts? C'mon man, don't be joshing me. Put your money where your mouth is.

 

[brian45011]

Do they make any money?

Enough to pay lobbyists and max out legal contributions to influential state legislators' campaigns.

 

[woodisgood]

Nice clickbaity link from SFGate. You'd think local journalists would be a bit kinder to Tesla...

 

[MP3Mike]

Nice clickbaity link from SFGate. You'd think local journalists would be a bit kinder to Tesla...View attachment 469811

And they aren't even unique. Doesn't a Range Rover, or is it Land Rover, have the same kind of handles that retract flush?

 

[T@oo]

Wut up homies?! Are we mooning yet? Where is @SpaceCash and @StealthP3D? Whose house is the party at this weekend?

All right, though seriously, I'm not popping the champagne yet. Nor willing to margin up or by LEAPS. But I have a good sized stock only position (with limited margin) and made some options money on the move up yesterday, which I converted to stock. I have no idea what the stock is going to do. Either I'm jaded or just confused. We've been here many times. It's a big move with a big gap, and we all know TSLA likes to fill the gaps, and there are even gaps below 250. But unlike previous times, I'm not convinced that this will go back down and fill. This was a major gap up, almost like a so-called "break away" gap, which could end up permanently trapping shorts below.

The stock is really behaving unusual IMO. If you look at the multi-year chart, you'll see that it bounced between approx 180-280 for years and then between 280-380 for some more years. It then had a technical break below 280 support this past spring. At this point, I expected it to either continue falling, or go back into its old range of 180-280, or make a V shape recovery. It now doesn't appear to be doing the former two, so the V shape recovery appears to be on the table. I stated previously that it would take either significant time or sig news to get back above the technical break of 280. The market has determined that this was that news. So this is what I'm hoping for, a V shaped rapid recovery with maybe a minor pullback and partial gap fill, and (eventually) new all time highs. With that said, I'm not willing to bet on it in leveraged fashion. Because we all know how TSLA can be. But to each, their own.

The other two possibilities I see are: that it's a head fake and we quickly fade back down back below into the 180-280 range. We will know whether this is true shortly. Or, second, that it forms a completely new pattern than before, where it freely moves between a new wider range between 180-380. That scenario would just royally suck IMO. As if it isn't bad enough that we had to bounce around in a 100 point range multiple times a year. 200 point range would just be hell. An example of this would be that it goes up to 320-340 (or even 380) and then goes all the way back down to 180 again. That would just suck, esp if you got leaps or other options (personally, if I bought Leaps at 180, I would liquidate them now and convert to shares, as it would just hurt too much to see those leaps come back to 180 -- been there, done that.) This is why I'm just holding shares. Yes, it takes longer till we get rewarded, but much less stress. I only give up opportunity cost and maybe minor margin interest expense.

Anyway, just some thoughts on the matter. Not advice. Good luck to all!

So basically, you say, it's anything-can-happen-thursday?

 

[FreqFlyer]

Toyota boss says autonomous cars will accept crash liability

"Manufacturers will have to accept liability in the event of an autonomous accident, according to bosses at Toyota’s research institute
Manufacturers of autonomous cars will have to accept liability in the event of an accident involving one of their vehicles – according to the specialist in charge of Toyota’s project to develop its own self-driving technology.

Dr Gill Pratt, CEO of Toyota Research Institute, says that manufacturers “won’t have a choice” but to accept that without a human driver to blame for an accident, the law is likely to turn to the companies who make the vehicles instead."

No wander the Automakers are dragging their feet on this, the only entities happy about this are the lawyers.

 

[StealthP3D]

Shits going to all time highs where it deserves to be by November mark this post

I would *love* that but I'm not expecting it to go there and stay there for perhaps another 10 months or so. Keeping in mind that no one really knows, it's all just one big ass guess. But today something happened that makes me wonder if TSLA might do it sooner.

My FIL is approaching 90 and owns a Volvo dealership, loves listening to Limbaugh and has no interest in owning a Tesla. He's ridden in our LR RWD Model 3 once a little over a year ago and said thought it was "nice" and that he was impressed. But I didn't know if he was just being nice by saying that. Because he hasn't shown any interest in it since. Today he told us that he bought some shares of Tesla stock (today) for the first time. I wanted to know why not yesterday! He said he thought the earnings sounded good so he jumped in! This bodes well because it means other investors who have been eyeing TSLA over the years, maybe ridden in one or two (but know very little about the details of the business), these people are probably thinking of jumping in about now.

For me the big question as to where the share price goes has mostly to do with just how effective these market manipulators actually are. History would suggest they can be effective at suppressing the price but only to a point. For confirmation of this, you only need to look at the trading range between Feb. 2017 to April 2019. That's over two YEARS where it traded between $250 and $380, mostly above $300. And Tesla's prospects were not nearly as strong then as they are now. If they had a real ability to control the share price with any authority, they had plenty of opportunities to take it below that and or keep it lower for longer. Note that when the share price was knocked down, it tended to not hang out down there for long. So unless they have stepped up their game recently, I think we are easily going back to the mid $300's and to at least test the old highs, perhaps by the end of the year or sooner.

 

[T@oo]

Toyota boss says autonomous cars will accept crash liability

"Manufacturers will have to accept liability in the event of an autonomous accident, according to bosses at Toyota’s research institute
Manufacturers of autonomous cars will have to accept liability in the event of an accident involving one of their vehicles – according to the specialist in charge of Toyota’s project to develop its own self-driving technology.

Dr Gill Pratt, CEO of Toyota Research Institute, says that manufacturers “won’t have a choice” but to accept that without a human driver to blame for an accident, the law is likely to turn to the companies who make the vehicles instead."

No wander the Automakers are dragging their feet on this, the only entities happy about this are the lawyers.

So yes, as expected. So it makes sense if you have to take the risk (of insurance) anyway, to sell this insurance to the customers, right? No need for lawyers then. Reduce your risk as your FSD software gets better and better.

 

[Paracelsus]

Schumer proposes $462 billion car swap - gas for electric

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is moving Democrats’ climate talk to where the rubber meets the road, proposing a $462 billion trade-in program to get millions of Americans out of climate-damaging gas vehicles and into electric or hybrid cars over the next decade.

Schumer’s rebate proposal late Thursday joins a mix of trillion- and multitrillion-dollar programs that Democratic presidential candidates have outlined to urgently cut oil, gas and coal emissions, as climate change weighs as an issue in the 2020 campaigns.

Schumer said the “proposal to bring clean cars to all of America” would be a key part of climate legislation by Senate Democrats. The injection of government-supported spending for electric cars “could position the U.S. to lead the world in clean auto manufacturing,” he said.

The New York Democrat’s plan would give American car buyers thousands of dollars each to trade in gas-burning cars for U.S.-assembled electric, hybrid or hydrogen cell cars. Lower-income households, and buyers of cars with American-made parts, would get extra credits.

About $45 billion would go to boost availability of charging stations and other electric car infrastructure. And $17 billion would help automakers increase their production of electric cars, batteries and parts.

I don’t like this. It feels disingenuous and misleading. Only 10% of the entire program goes towards All-Electric Vehicles and EV infrastructure, and the other 90% can go to hybrid and hydrogen vehicles.....? IMO this stinks of a GM/Ford and fossil fuel bailout. GM & Ford so they can keep making hybrids instead of getting a subsidy to take the full leap to clean EV’s - which they still have no capacity to do...and worse yet is the subsidy proposal for hydrogen vehicles. Since 95% of the hydrogen in the US is made from Natural Gas, a hydrogen vehicle can actually have greater GHG emission levels than a gasoline vehicle - which is the antithesis of a Climate Friendly Subsidy. So this smells of a play to bail out the Natural Gas industry too, which has fracked themselves into a portfolio of stranded assets. And there is nothing Climate Friendly about the Carbon Footprint and Global Impact of manufacturing a new vehicle unless it is an order of magnitude Greener than the vehicle it is replacing - and if the vehicle it is replacing is scrapped.

Schumer is trying to get something greasy passed under a misleading message instead of embracing & passing the Green New Deal.

 

[Buckminster]

SR+ 0-60 is 5.3s. Are we expecting this to reduce to 5.1 with a 5% power increase?