Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Lol! Okay!! I want it in writing.... uh, never mind.

You loading up on Nov 400 calls then? 14 cents ask. Why don't you bust the open interest on that and buy a 1000 contracts? C'mon man, don't be joshing me. Put your money where your mouth is.

Schwab isn't showing me any $400 calls until I go out to Dec. 20, 2019. And the ask is $0.50.

 

[Buckminster]

I don’t like this. It feels disingenuous and misleading. Only 10% of the entire program goes towards All-Electric Vehicles and EV infrastructure, and the other 90% can go to hybrid and hydrogen vehicles.....? IMO this stinks of a GM/Ford and fossil fuel bailout. GM & Ford so they can keep making hybrids instead of getting a subsidy to take the full leap to clean EV’s - which they still have no capacity to do...and worse yet is the subsidy proposal for hydrogen vehicles. Since 95% of the hydrogen in the US is made from Natural Gas, a hydrogen vehicle can actually have greater GHG emission levels than a gasoline vehicle - which is the antithesis of a Climate Friendly Subsidy. So this smells of a play to bail out the Natural Gas industry too, which has fracked themselves into a portfolio of stranded assets. And there is nothing Climate Friendly about the Carbon Footprint and Global Impact of manufacturing a new vehicle unless it is an order of magnitude Greener than the vehicle it is replacing - and if the vehicle it is replacing is scrapped.

Schumer is trying to get something greasy passed under a misleading message instead of embracing & passing the Green New Deal.

U.S.-assembled electric, hybrid or hydrogen cell cars.
There are no hydrogen cars to buy. Tesla would benefit greatly if this went through.

 

[larmor]

CNBC to interview Robyn Denholm on Friday am 7:45 et (might be 6:45et still not used central time zone)

 

[MichaelP90DL]

CNBC to interview Robyn Denholm on Friday am 7:45 et (might be 6:45et still not used central time zone)

Thanks for the heads up. Gonna record it.

 

[Fact Checking]

SR+ 0-60 is 5.3s. Are we expecting this to reduce to 5.1 with a 5% power increase?

Yes, 5.0-5.1 secs I'd say.

Also, Model 3 Performance would go from 3.2 secs to 3.0-3.1 secs, beating/matching the $150k version of the Taycan...

 

[RobStark]

U.S.-assembled electric, hybrid or hydrogen cell cars.
There are no hydrogen cars to buy. Tesla would benefit greatly if this went through.

Against WTO rules to limit subsidies to vehicles assembled in your nation.

But Schumer knows this has ZERO chance of passing.

This is election posturing.

Nothing More.

IF Democrats win in 2020 then what they propose in 2021 is important.

 

[Fact Checking]

My statement is absolutely true that big heavy trucks with seat belts do well in real world crashes.

Actually, trucks have significantly higher single car crash fatality rates: higher mass will plow through other vehicles easier, but will also plow through protective barriers such as guardrails or fences. The higher center of gravity is also a higher rollover risk - although I'd expect Bollinger to do better there. Do they have front and side airbags? They are life savers in side crashes.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Schwab isn't showing me any $400 calls until I go out to Dec. 20, 2019. And the ask is $0.50.

I see Nov 15 strikes up to 460.

 

[StealthP3D]

Actually, trucks have significantly higher single car fatality rate: higher mass will plow through other vehicles easier, but will also plow through protective barriers such as guardrails or fences. The higher center of gravity is also a higher rollover risk - although I'd expect Bollinger to do better there. Do they have front and side airbags? They are life savers in side crashes.

No airbags at all. It's a lot like a truck from the 1970's only electric. I imagine they will have a collapsible steering column but you never know.

 

[Fact Checking]

Schwab isn't showing me any $400 calls until I go out to Dec. 20, 2019. And the ask is $0.50.

The 11/15/2019 series goes out to $500.

The $400 ask is $0.14, but you can probably get it cheaper, as the bid is $0.09.

$410 is a (much) better deal with a $0.10 ask: 40% more contracts for just $10 higher strike.

Not that either of them is probable to end up in the money as things stand today.

 

[Singuy]

You know what I want tomorrow during the solar roof presentation?

"Today, we would like to announce our first home builder partnership with Toll Brothers as an effort to accelerate our transition to sustainable energy using Tesla's Solar Roof".

 

[StealthP3D]

I see Nov 15 strikes up to 460.

Which broker? On Schwab, I see those up to $500 (but with zero open interest).

I wonder how I can see the Nov. 29, 2019 $400 calls?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Does anyone think today's trading will be an interesting conglomerate? With the extreme high volume yesterday, all the calls expiring today, positive Q3, and then the new updated Tesla Solar Roof to be revealed after market close, it's bound to be an interesting day of trading at least.

My guess it'll be mostly flat trading again, but the market will jump accordingly with the new reveal.

 

[Paracelsus]

U.S.-assembled electric, hybrid or hydrogen cell cars.
There are no hydrogen cars to buy. Tesla would benefit greatly if this went through.

This should be an EV-only subsidy if the goal is sincerely to address Climate Change. There is actually tremendous pressure from the fossil fuel industry for the development of hydrogen vehicles and infrastructure to help unload their extremely overdeveloped natural gas industry, so it is not an accident the language to provide that seed money is in this proposal IMO. And we can do better than SUV and Crossover hybrids at this point too. I agree with you that Tesla would do well. My point is that we need the Planet to do well also. Now is not the time for more pragmatic solutions that never move us forward because they continue to embrace the Old Paradigm. So put some EV teeth in the language that puts the Planet first. Tesla will do well under that language too

 

[Thekiwi]

I would *love* that but I'm not expecting it to go there and stay there for perhaps another 10 months or so. Keeping in mind that no one really knows, it's all just one big ass guess. But today something happened that makes me wonder if TSLA might do it sooner.

My FIL is approaching 90 and owns a Volvo dealership, loves listening to Limbaugh and has no interest in owning a Tesla. He's ridden in our LR RWD Model 3 once a little over a year ago and said thought it was "nice" and that he was impressed. But I didn't know if he was just being nice by saying that. Because he hasn't shown any interest in it since. Today he told us that he bought some shares of Tesla stock (today) for the first time. I wanted to know why not yesterday! He said he thought the earnings sounded good so he jumped in! This bodes well because it means other investors who have been eyeing TSLA over the years, maybe ridden in one or two (but know very little about the details of the business), these people are probably thinking of jumping in about now.

For me the big question as to where the share price goes has mostly to do with just how effective these market manipulators actually are. History would suggest they can be effective at suppressing the price but only to a point. For confirmation of this, you only need to look at the trading range between Feb. 2017 to April 2019. That's over two YEARS where it traded between $250 and $380, mostly above $300. And Tesla's prospects were not nearly as strong then as they are now. If they had a real ability to control the share price with any authority, they had plenty of opportunities to take it below that and or keep it lower for longer. Note that when the share price was knocked down, it tended to not hang out down there for long. So unless they have stepped up their game recently, I think we are easily going back to the mid $300's and to at least test the old highs, perhaps by the end of the year or sooner.

I’ve had similar experience over last 2 days, with a couple of acquaintances asking if I was still invested in Tesla and wondering if its a good time to get into the stock.

 

[Thekiwi]

CNBC to interview Robyn Denholm on Friday am 7:45 et (might be 6:45et still not used central time zone)

 

[Fact Checking]

No airbags at all. It's a lot like a truck from the 1970's only electric. I imagine they will have a collapsible steering column but you never know.

Lack of airbags ... I wouldn't put my family in it while driving on public urban roads.

Just a SUV running a red light from the left at 40-60 mph and at least one family member is gone in the blink of an eye:

• That easily deformable high density engine block on the SUV? High density kinetic bullet aimed into your car.
• Crumple zone? 10-30 cm only.
  
• That glass window, the door frame and panels? Blocks of concrete that at least one passenger head is hitting at 30-40 mph in a side-whiplash motion. It's similar to falling from a 3-5 story building on a concrete pavement, hitting sideways with hands not extended. Cause of death: broken neck or blunt force trauma.

Side crashes without side airbags are brutal, unless you are in a main battle tank or an APC:

See that big red mark on the side airbag at 0:20? That's the window on a Bollinger, and the red won't be paint ...

It's almost 2020 for heaven's sake ... SMH.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The anti Tesla company bias is sometimes hard to figure out. I sort of put it down to a very emotional response to people who are so pro-Tesla, kind of like some sort of college rivalry.

However, according to some basic research, the market cap of some car companies is: VW 97B, Daimler 60B, GM 52B, Honda 48B, Tesla 45B, Ford 36B.

Sales, in cars, for those companies in 2018 are VW 10.83M, GM 8.3m, Honda 4.9M, Tesla 240k, Ford 5.3M

So, putting aside the emotions, isn't the argument that, if market cap is a basic measure of value, that Tesla's stock price already has a premium due to the discrepancy between its sales and market cap.

I can't find a comparable small car company that I recognize. The premium may be justified, but it looks like its there.

Never heard of Ferrari? (RACE)
Makes 6K cars a year, striving for 10K soon, and currently at $39B market cap.

And did you know that few years back, while still independent, Porsche was making 100K cars a year, and higher profits than the rest of German auto-industry combined?
I'm not positive, but I also think it was more valuable (though tightly held) than VW that was making, oh, some 10M cars, i.e. 100x more...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Which broker? On Schwab, I see those up to $500 (but with zero open interest).

I wonder how I can see the Nov. 29, 2019 $400 calls?

etrade. I think it's only the monthlies, as the weeklies don't have enough volume/ open interest.

 

[Buckminster]

So original Blade Runner movie was set in Nov 2019. Elon now calling the pickup truck the cyber truck.

Blade Runner Founders Edition anyone? Launch the HBO Go app in Tesla Theatre at the same time? Free replicant? - have I gone too far now?