Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Alphacrux]

A friend sent me this article with the comment: 'BS'. I need more 'funny' icons here. Who writes these things anyway?
20 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Buy A Tesla

Trying to find out if I can write the so called 'journalist' and call her out. I actually bothered to write some bullet points:

1). X can haul a trailer
2). Total cost of ownership of the '3 is lower than ICE, soon maybe even cheaper to buy.
3). There are plenty of Superchargers. Every house is a charger.
4). For what? The only thing I've had to repair that anyone else couldn't repair was the failed on-board charger on my '15 which failed within 1 month of purchase under warranty. Anything else any other shop could have covered.
5). Bad press comes from short-sellers.
6). How much emissions come from making ICE-powered cars? They don't mention that.
7). Most charging done at home. Superchargers close enough together that typical charging stop is 15-20 minutes, if you plan to operate on lower half of battery capacity.
8). BS. They came to my house to repair rusted bolts that could be a problem. Any tow truck that has a flat bed can work.
9). Many ICD cars don't come with a spare. I got a tire inflator kit with injectable goo.
10). Some range loss. Works well enough in the cold. Not to worry since supercharger network is built out.
11). BS. All-wheel drive is great. Shouldn't accelerate like an idiot in winter conditions. Buy snow tires. Car handled just fine in our 'freezing fog' conditions.
12). Get a test drive from a friend. Can return the car if you don't like it.
13). Software doesn't NEED regular updating. Regular updating makes it BETTER.
14). False. Excellent resale value. Look it up on the web.
15). No need to maintain it yourself. No oil to change. Nothing to go wrong.
16). It is not self-driving. It is driver assist feature. Self-driving won't be out for a number of years. Who's responsible for 'myths'? Short-sellers maybe?
17). I can't even understand this one. Maybe our 4 trips to California on the highway just didn't happen.
18). See 17). above. Maybe our 4 trips to California just didn't happen. When was this article written, anyway? Do they accept coments.
19). BS. BS. Isn't going to a gas station to fill up inconvenient?
20). ICE technology is too old.

 

[Krugerrand]

You have to admit this level of manipulation is impressive.

I don’t have to admit anything. And I won’t. That’s power of cat. *yawn* *curl up and resume nap*

 

[M3Rider]

I have to assume that once the "Tesla is profitable/stable" narrative starts to trickle down through the public's mind this will further exacerbate the current order backlog.

Exactly, all these bulls asking for advertising...

Do we really want people pissed at Tesla for months of wait until delivery? And lines in service centers?

I think the extra capacity from China can't come online soon enough and Tesla has a lot of ramping up to do next year, they'll likely double their sales YoY (Y included) without advertising.

Q4 should be a killer unless some big write offs for GF3 ramping.

 

[Chocochip]

Do we get another dump here to prevent green?

 

[Sean Wagner]

I have to assume that once the "Tesla is profitable/stable" narrative starts to trickle down through the public's mind this will further exacerbate the current order backlog.

Counting on this. I've checked some of the German-language papers and they all reported the fact, albeit from different angles - just like Tesla's losses were sometimes front page news. As I've repeatedly mentioned, I think it's especially important for Tesla's German sales - a certain solidity is a precondition to a real breakthrough there.

 

[KarenRei]

Wait a minute. You won't sell at $328 but you would below $310?

Okey-dokey then...I'll give you $309 for your shares. Wait! Let me sweeten the pot a little - I'll give you $302 for them!

Or you could just hold them a short while and you'll have people wanting them for $400. But I imagine by then you would insist on $375!

Can someone please nominate this for "Moderator's Choice: Posts of Particular Merit"?

 

[StealthP3D]

Q4 will probably be positive. But the combination of ramping Model Y and 3 in Gyna + hiring as well as the chinese new year in January will mean we have some headwind in Q1 2020. It is best to structure your entry/exit so that you lighten the load a bit after they release q4 ER in Jan.

Of course, if tesla remains gaap positive in q1, then we will probably see the mother if all short squeeze.

So here you want to straddle in april 2021. Cause either way it will be epic.

You don't make much sense here.

I don't consider my TSLA shares a burden, I consider them an under-valued asset that is appreciating as TSLA ramps production capacity, offerings and reduces costs. An asset that will likely be worth a multiple of its current value in 5 short years. Why would I want to "lighten the load a bit"?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seems to have stabilized. If it holds or goes back up 1-2% I'll consider this a pretty big victory and a likely sign that the stock is primed to go higher.

It was looking sketchy there for a bit but fought off the potential collapse into a 3-5% drop.

 

[Sean Wagner]

There's a serious #DemandProblem. And that is that demand is way too high.

#DoomandProblem #PeopleFightingOverTeslas #ThisIsTheEnd

Just to provide a kernel of data: there was one vociferous person at the FT commenting on Tesla's dismal sales in Norway this October. Since his posts were obviously partisan and given recent developments, I was content to ignore it.

Do hope the wave gets unwound one of these years, it's just vastly inefficient.

 

[Curt Renz]

Which century?

Indeed, the term "turn of the century" has become ambiguous. It was popularized during the 1920s, and of course referred to the years surrounding 1900. Now it's been nearly 20 years since a more recent turn of the century. Yet entities such as Turner Classic Movies continue to paste old descriptions such as, "The Time Machine is the story of a turn of the century inventor..." Nowadays they need to be more specific about which century to which they are referring.

 

[Nocturnal]

A friend sent me this article with the comment: 'BS'. I need more 'funny' icons here. Who writes these things anyway?
20 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Buy A Tesla

Trying to find out if I can write the so called 'journalist' and calling her out. I actually bothered to write some bullet points:

1). X can haul a trailer
2). Total cost of ownership of the '3 is lower than ICE, soon maybe even cheaper to buy.
3). There are plenty of Superchargers. Every house is a charger.
4). For what? The only thing I've had to repair that anyone else couldn't repair was the failed on-board charger on my '15 which failed within 1 month of purchase under warranty. Anything else any other shop could have covered.
5). Bad press comes from short-sellers.
6). How much emissions come from making ICE-powered cars? They don't mention that.
7). Most charging done at home. Superchargers close enough together that typical charging stop is 15-20 minutes, if you plan to operate on lower half of battery capacity.
8). BS. They came to my house to repair rusted bolts that could be a problem. Any tow truck that has a flat bed can work.
9). Many ICD cars don't come with a spare. I got a tire inflator kit with injectable goo.
10). Some range loss. Works well enough in the cold. Not to worry since supercharger network is built out.
11). BS. All-wheel drive is great. Shouldn't accelerate like an idiot in winter conditions. Buy snow tires. Car handled just fine in our 'freezing fog' conditions.
12). Get a test drive from a friend. Can return the car if you don't like it.
13). Software doesn't NEED regular updating. Regular updating makes it BETTER.
14). False. Excellent resale value. Look it up on the web.
15). No need to maintain it yourself. No oil to change. Nothing to go wrong.
16). It is not self-driving. It is driver assist feature. Self-driving won't be out for a number of years. Who's responsible for 'myths'? Short-sellers maybe?
17). I can't even understand this one. Maybe our 4 trips to California on the highway just didn't happen.
18). See 17). above. Maybe our 4 trips to California just didn't happen. When was this article written, anyway? Do they accept coments.
19). BS. BS. Isn't going to a gas station to fill up inconvenient?
20). ICE technology is too old.

Sources, motor junkie, CNBC

That explains a lot.

 

[EVNow]

There are short funds trading TSLA. There is a one-trader shop managing his boss's money. The guy said they lost more than 200 million dollars last week on TSLA, their worst week in 21 years. Since he is talking about weekly performance, I'm pretty sure he is day-trading or weekly trading the stock. He said they are still up 400 million for the year. If that is true (seems to me he is telling the truth), they gained 10 million dollars per week.

Where did you see this ?

 

[wipster]

Nice that the SP is turning positive but I want 340 damn it!

 

[StealthP3D]

Seems to have stabilized. If it holds or goes back up 1-2% I'll consider this a pretty big victory and a likely sign that the stock is primed to go higher.

It was looking sketchy there for a bit but fought off the potential collapse into a 3-5% drop.

Oh, yes. That was really sketchy there.

I was biting my nails and sitting on the edge of my seat. Almost had a heart attack.

Sometimes I can't believe what some people will put into words.

 

[KarenRei]

Nice that the SP is turning positive but I want 340 damn it!

Yeah, I'll take that too I did a bit of deleveraging at $335 today (well... it started out around $335... even higher, really... but it had dropped to $332-$333 by the end). Plan to do a bit more around $342-ish (want some stability over $340). I've been rolling up/forward June $340-$420 call spreads (to Sep. $380-$450 spreads) and taking profits in the form of more shares. Next deleveraging stop after that will be when my June $360-$420 spreads are NTM.

I have one sold PUT spread I need to buy back. I'm waiting for the SP to level out and IV to drop.

 

[M3Rider]

Seems to have stabilized. If it holds or goes back up 1-2% I'll consider this a pretty big victory and a likely sign that the stock is primed to go higher.

It was looking sketchy there for a bit but fought off the potential collapse into a 3-5% drop.

The volume though stays pretty low since the afternoon. Can probably be easily manipulated at this point.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Oh, yes. That was really sketchy there.

I was biting my nails and sitting on the edge of my seat. Almost had a heart attack.

Sometimes I can't believe what some people will put into words.

Eh? We've seen many many times the momentum within a single trading day swing widly.....which was exactly what was happening. We already had seen a swing from up 4% to down 2%......stock could have easily broken down to 315-320 level had their been enough downward momentum

 

[Unpilot]

Oh, yes. That was really sketchy there.

I was biting my nails and sitting on the edge of my seat. Almost had a heart attack.

Sometimes I can't believe what some people will put into words.

Hey we have a talking cat here ...so there is that.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yeah, I'll take that too I did a bit of deleveraging at $335 today (well... it started out around $335... even higher, really... but it had dropped to $332-$333 by the end). Plan to do a bit more around $342-ish (want some stability over $340). I've been rolling up/forward June $340-$420 call spreads (to Sep. $380-$450 spreads) and taking profits in the form of more shares. Next deleveraging stop after that will be when my June $360-$420 spreads are NTM.

I have one sold PUT spread I need to buy back. I'm waiting for the SP to level out and IV to drop.

Q: How do you create a monster?
A: Deliver an on-line brokerage account to a Tesla fan before the car.

 

[Causalien]

You don't make much sense here.

I don't consider my TSLA shares a burden, I consider them an under-valued asset that is appreciating as TSLA ramps production capacity, offerings and reduces costs. An asset that will likely be worth a multiple of its current value in 5 short years. Why would I want to "lighten the load a bit"?

It's prudent investing + strategic change. To deploy the straddle strategy in April, you need cash. And that cash is obtained by selling in January.

These are strategies constructed out of the most likely outcome that will be more surefire than betting one way only. Because we cannot see the future with 100% certainty. Take Q3 2018 for example, the mood is exactly the same.

To be honest I forecast a 10 year 20x roadmap similar to msft and amazn. But that doesn't stop me from taking profit. There are several camps when it comes to bankroll mangement. Some says 100% invested all the time, I am on the side where persistent income needs to be generated from these so you are not forced to act when a trade goes against you. I used to belong to camp 1, but have slowly transitioned to camp 2. And have learned from many mentors about camp 3 which has similar attribute to camp 1. These transitions happens as your digits grow becauae the game is different at each level. YYou can't be a billionair and have zero cashflow. How are you going to pay your taxes?