Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Specific reference, please.

I live in San Diego, and a less than one year old Supercharger site has almost half of their stalls down right now: Supercharger - Carlsbad, CA (7710 El Camino Real, LIVE 27 Sep 2018, 26 Urban type)

But you are correct in that one Supercharger site does not make a trend.

I still think 2Q20 is the golden quarter and to be careful until then. The problem is timing. You never know when the market is going to wake up and realize that 2Q20 will be a barn burner. Certainly waiting for 2Q20 results will be too late (assuming I'm correct).

 

[Chocochip]

Musk is tweeting about solar again. He seems quite focused on it these days. Which suggests we should be seeing notable improvements in deployments in the next quarters, as well as production rates going up at Buffalo. Some execs may also leave the company soon from that side of the business, now that the big guy is paying attention.

 

[KarenRei]

In other news, Thunderdome sales are sharply up in California today, and there's massive growth in the War Rig market...

California Power Outages Map

 

[adiggs]

Hm, that doesn't seem promising for the company. Of course, they're already sitting at $1.51 a stock, so they can't really go down much further.

I used to think that. Then we saw a company that we used to follow passively around here go down to $0.01, followed by a reverse split of 700,000:1 (turn in 700,000 shares - get back 1), followed by a return to $0.01. There are numbers values that are a LOT smaller than 1 cent.

 

[Curt Renz]

Okay, so what happened?

There doesn't appear to be any news behind the drop. If institutions were taking profits, they would have spread their selling over a longer period of time. Large numbers of retail investors without stop loss limits would not have suddenly chosen to sell in unison. As the TSLA share price steadied and trading volume slowed following the recent big run upward, it became ripe for manipulation by those hoping to scare into action those who may have been considering taking profits.

It looks as though some entity wanted to shove TSLA down through $330 and then $325. That probably triggered weak longs with stop loss limits at $300 and $325. Then algobots likely followed suit. This results in effects similar to toppling dominoes. If so, it's a strategy employed by manipulators. After temporarily selling short, they are usually the first to cover and leave other shorts holding the bag. This drop could also inspire some institutions that were waiting for Tesla to show a profit before accumulating (buying) TSLA shares on a dip.

 

[Mike Smith]

Scott Galloway says he was wrong on Tesla.

Scott Galloway on Twitter

 

[Driver Dave]

Can I get some 'funny' responses on this article please?
Tesla Is The Underdog In The Electric Car Revolution

Great advice from Stephen McBride similar to...

Amazon Is The Underdog In The Online Store Revolution.
"Giant retailers, like Sears, are coming for Amazon… and as you’ve seen, all signs show they have the upper hand."

Apple Is The Underdog In The Smart Phone Revolution.
"Giant cell phone manufacturers, like Nokia, are coming for Apple… and as you’ve seen, all signs show they have the upper hand."

SpaceX Is The Underdog In The Private Launch Revolution.
"Giant aircraft manufacturers, like Boeing, are coming for SpaceX… and as you’ve seen, all signs show they have the upper hand."

 

[Hock1]

There doesn't appear to be any news behind the drop. If institutions were taking profits, they would have spread their selling over a longer period of time. Large numbers of retail investors without stop loss limits would not have suddenly chosen to sell in unison. As the TSLA share price steadied and trading volume slowed following the recent big run upward, it became ripe for manipulation by those hoping to scare into action those who may have been considering taking profits.

It looks as though some entity wanted to shove TSLA down through $330 and then $325. That probably triggered weak longs with stop loss limits at $300 and $325. Then algobots likely followed suit. This results in effects similar to toppling dominoes. If so, it's a strategy employed by manipulators. After temporarily selling short, they are usually the first to cover and leave other shorts holding the bag. This drop could also inspire some institutions that were waiting for Tesla to show a profit before accumulating (buying) TSLA shares on a dip.

Anyone know the date of this interview with Cramer? TIA.

 

[GBleck]

Can I get some 'funny' responses on this article please?
Tesla Is The Underdog In The Electric Car Revolution

His thesis is based on Tesla being the first mover in the electric car market. *cough* GM *cough* EV1

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Anyone know the date of this interview with Cramer? TIA.

It's a very long time ago. Cramer retired from his hedge fund before the turn of the century.

 

[The Accountant]

I live in San Diego, and a less than one year old Supercharger site has almost half of their stalls down right now: Supercharger - Carlsbad, CA (7710 El Camino Real, LIVE 27 Sep 2018, 26 Urban type)

But you are correct in that one Supercharger site does not make a trend.

I still think 2Q20 is the golden quarter and to be careful until then. The problem is timing. You never know when the market is going to wake up and realize that 2Q20 will be a barn burner. Certainly waiting for 2Q20 results will be too late (assuming I'm correct).

I really like that moniker..."the Golden Quarter". You're guessing 2Q20 but I lean toward 3Q20. The SP will do well throughout 2020 but I believe that the Model Y ramp up, GF3 deliveries and solar roof sales will bring awesome results in Q3.

 

[jerry33]

His thesis is based on Tesla being the first mover in the electric car market. *cough* GM *cough* EV1

Which GM did everything they could to get rid of once upper management found out about it.

 

[M3Rider]

Yeah, but the knowns now make TSLA sooo much cheaper at $340. 20% margins on 3 with lowered price and almost 0 tax credit, GF3 day/hours to birth 3s, FSD on track for feature compete in 2019, SS out and in the wild (no more coming next month jokes), a profit with current conditions, AND THOSE FREAKIN SOLAR TILES at a price to match normal roof + ugly solar and NOBODY, NOBODY, NOBODY else making them.

Yeah, profit after price cuts definitely shocked me.
We knew the product map (even though several products just moved up), but the efficiency and cost cutting gains were amazing.

The SP is still a steal provided you have the dry powder. Tesla is just in so much a better shape than the previous points in time when SP was $350, absolutely true.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

His thesis is based on Tesla being the first mover in the electric car market. *cough* GM *cough* EV1

I like how he switches from units sold in China to models available in Europe. Because if he showed units sold in Europe, there goes his entire thesis.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Regarding todays SP moves. I've heard this called 'shaking the tree', where market makers drop the price, and hope to panic retail investors into selling, so they can buy the dip. Certainly not happening on any news, and I can certainly see the logic at taking profits now for some. Unless it goes below $310 I wont sell anything though. I suspect it will creep up over the rest of the week and this will be a blip.

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah, profit after price cuts definitely shocked me.
We knew the product map (even though several products just moved up), but the efficiency and cost cutting gains were amazing.

The SP is still a steal provided you have the dry powder. Tesla is just in so much a better shape than the previous points in time when SP was $350, absolutely true.

What continually has amazed me is how even many bulls have failed to understand that if you dramatically increase production without building new lines or going on a mass hiring spree, you dramatically slash COGS. You even reduce raw materials costs, by reducing the sort of scrappage rates that hold your lines back.

This has been a COGS story for the past two years - how have even so many bulls missed this?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Shorts have barely begun to cover.
Doesn't look like any major institutional buyers have loaded up.
Still plenty of juice left to keep squeezing on up.

When's the truck reveal? Its almost November.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This has been a COGS story for the past two years - where has everyone else been?

Reminding everyone of that was @neroden 's job, we haven't found a replacement yet. Are you applying for the job?

 

[Unpilot]

I must be a greedy bastage... because if you told me this time last week I would be pissed off at a 325 Price I would have laughed.

 

[KarenRei]

Reminding everyone of that was @neroden 's job, we haven't found a replacement yet. Are you applying for the job?

I took the job years ago, but I've continually suffered from a reverse Cassandra effect

It's been a battle between a massive COGS reduction and a massive ASP reduction. ASP reduction slaughtered in Q1 (alongside relatively modest production growth, S/X cannibalization, a botched overseas rollout, etc etc). We're finally to the point where we had only a modest ASP decline, which let the COGS decline from production growth overcome it.

Now in Q4 we're looking at an ASP rise. Great to think about, isn't it?