Peter Thiel is saying something similar to:
Fool me once.....Amazingly, I agreed with 90% of the points Adam Jonas made. In this interview he certainly was showing an increasing amount of respect towards Tesla, and even defended Tesla against the negative narrative of the Bloomberg reporter.
The contrast he drew between Toyota (most valuable auto company with zero EVs) and Tesla (most shorted auto company with only EVs) was downright genial. I almost came to the conclusion that he cares about the EV transition.
A few mistakes he made IMO:
But nice interview overall, I can see the old Adam Jonas of 2015-2016 who was a Tesla super-bull, rising from the ashes again.
- He hyped fleet EV sales - while missing the immense rate of simple ICE replacement sales that are ~15 million vehicles per year in the US alone. Those are the primary target of EV market share expansion. Yes, more difficult - but also highly lucrative and the viral marketing is very valuable for zero-advertising Tesla, more so than corporate fleet sales.
- He completely ignored the commercial EV truck business (Tesla Semi), which is both huge and high margin, and easier to disrupt because fleet sales are indeed the major expansion factor there, and it's the bottom line that matters in the trucking business, not perception and consumer fears. Regulatory limits against ICE trucks will also be imposed faster, once there are competitive EV trucks.
- He thinks Tesla's China margin improvements will be temporary: big mistake, China wants 100% EV sales by 2030-2035, and they just built a factory for Tesla in record time to accelerate that process, using their star state owned construction firm that they use for high profile construction projects. China: ~25 million vehicle sales per year, ~5 million of them in Tesla's price category ... addressable market: 10x of Tesla's current global production, and if China GDP grows 6-7% per year that expands car ASPs as well.
Apple does have great silicon design skills. They could probably design their own HW3 AI chip. But I doubt they have the other FSD pieces in place. They could write their own road simulator, but would have to purchase extensive training data from say Waymo or others. They could probably hire talented engineers with a power power electronics background and battery background. They certainly would have the expertise to design an integrated auto ”software stack” and infotainment system (I’ll stay away from the Apple vs Android debate).
What did they say they are they gonna do for us S and X owners with MCU upgrade?
What many issues? Yes a few have issues, just like any car, and of course this forum shows a lot because most people--other than a few geeks, such as I--don't go to a forum unless they have an issue. Also the people who have issues tend to post the same issues many times increasing the perception of "many issues", but the majority just drive the car.
No, they were from the Semi reveal.
Most salespeople in retail stores and dealerships know little about the product they sell other than the name, cost, and financing (where applicable). Even for specialized retail stores, where you'd think they would need to know because the average buyer would know little about the product and have questions, this is true. In general, if you have done any research on the product you're thinking of purchasing, you'll have a very good chance of knowing a lot more than the sales person.
You are missing a number of big points. First, the customers of traditional car manufacturers are the dealers, who absolutely do not want low maintenance electric cars. Second, sticking a battery and motor in a conventional car gives a sub-par experience. Example: Leaf. Note the poor sales of Leaf compared to Tesla. Second, you can't make electric cars without a supply of batteries, only Tesla has an actual plan for this (Yes, VW says they do, but they've been saying that for a very long time with little to show for it). Third, the 5% range reduction is more like 50% range reduction between Tesla and others. This gap will increase with new battery technology. And no, I don't think they can implement it even if they figure it out. This exact same thing happened in the tire industry when radial tires came in. The result is that only one North American tire manufacturer survived, and that was mainly because they had other products. Building a popular electric car is more than just sticking a motor and a battery in the car. People tend to purchase cars with emotions, so there needs to be something that sparks the buying emotion--in cars most typically this is performance or snob appeal, even if they don't purchase the top of the line model, or never add the racing parts to their car.
Musk is thinking of Robotaxis, he did an entire presentation about them. People who purchase cars do so mainly for the convenience of having a car always ready. If Robotaxis can make each trip seem like not a major expenditure and can be 95% as convenient as having a car right there, then most urban dwellers will use them instead of having a car. Even if that goal is achieved, it will take some time for adaptation so the private ownership with the car working for you could be a transition phase. We won't know until the network becomes reality.
The big question for the legacy auto makers isn't whether they can make an EV, it is a question of whether they can do it on a mass scale and show profitability. As far as I know, the Tesla "competitors" have developed cars to sell in small numbers because they can't sell them at any significant profit so they are more of a liability to their bottom line than anything else. Until they figure this out (and to this point nobody has that I know of) EVs will simply be compliance cars that manufacturers make to either satisfy governmental emissions regulations or an attempt to improve public relations to show everyone how "eco friendly" they are.
Renewable is not limited to solar, so there is a mix. Then you have battery backup to make up the difference. IIRC, NY gets a lot of it's power from Quebec Hydro, so even in the best case you'd never have 100% solar. New York already is implementing offshore wind. So between solar, wind, and hydro all with battery backup, there shouldn't be an issue (always assuming the engineering and planning are done correctly).
