Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Agreed re: people's short-term thinking. I think a good test of this hypothesis will be whether sales of solar and powerwall in California spike in the aftermath of fires that bring the consequences of climate change roaring into people's short-term focus via personal experience.

The power outages have been a wake-up call, and folks all around me (including myself, my parents, in-laws, etc.) are starting to consider how to weather these in future years. Amongst those that are on the wealthier side, yes, solar roof/powerwall are on the table. Not as an immediate action item, but "when we need a new roof..." Unfortunately, amongst the folks I've spoken to that have less disposable income, everyone's talking about whole-house generators in the 4-5k range. Even with federal incentives solar/powerwall is not quite going to line up with people's self-interests. The solar subscription helps, but doesn't solve the problem people are worried about without purchase of powerwall.

 

[jerry33]

They are still developing FC with the help of the Japanese government. Regarding EV competition, ignore at your own peril.

In Japan, Toyota are their own dealers and get a fair amount of revenue from service. They really do not want to lose that, which is why they have fought EVs at every turn. They are also very influential in government so they've successfully lobbied for FC development.

 

[capster]

EV battery pack cost has been dropping 21% per year in the past 8 years. We (the world) have been able to maintain this pace due to three factors: R&D, scale and improved energy density. I expect those three factors will continue to help. At this rate Tesla will soon reach $5k for batteries, $6~7k for the whole pack.

When the battery pack costs $30k, there is a high risk of breakthrough from competition. What if another company brings out a new battery, the whole pack only costs $10k?

When the pack cost keeps going down, the risk of competition also goes down. Even if another company brings out a battery that's slightly cheaper than $5k, it won't be a huge competition risk. Can the competitor drop it to $2k? unlikely. For a competitor to find a new form of battery that's significantly better and cheaper than Tesla's batteries, they need to first find a new battery (solid state, etc.), they need to make sure it can be recharged quickly, it can last at least 1000 cycles without too much degradation, it's easy to produce, it can supply high current, low internal resistance, the material and production cost is competitive. Then test in vehicles, ramp production. I guess it would be at least another 8~10 years, if them manage to get all the things right. By then Tesla's batteries are so good and so cheap, the competitors will have to find the next battery breakthrough. So I don't worry about batteries at this point. The real competition is in FSD software.

The only thing I can think of is this: The cost difference might help mitigate the efficiency gap between Tesla’s cars and the traditional ICE vehicles, maybe?

I think a lot of the legacy OEM’s are just praying for a miracle battery because they’re stuck.

 

[printf42]

Look at the poor quality control! Two of them are missing window stickers, another one have it on wrong place!

And... the panel gaps are visible from the air!(I mean gap between panels from different cars)

Paging Shorty Air Force to take closer look!

 

[jerry33]

No one here is thinking about the day in a couple of years when see Honda,Toyota ,VW EVs advertised on TV or splashed across Yahoo.com. In that environment when the market is flooded with just as capable and maybe cheaper EVs than Tesla. That is the threat to Tesla.

A couple of years has been the same mantra that VW has been saying for, I think ten, years now. If they had "just as capable" EVs, there would be some prototypes out now--but there aren't. It's not possible, no matter how many ICE cars you've made, to just all of a sudden have a Tesla quality EV. Physics doesn't work that way. The best they can hope for is to be close in ten years, but I'd suggest twenty would be closer to the mark (those that survive, that is).

 

[printf42]

Agreed. Tesla does not and will not dilute its new product announcements by launching them at auto shows. The pickup launch will be a huge event. If Tesla plans to show it at the LA Auto Show, then the launch should be before that point.

And it’s a rare occasion that they can launch a car without having to anti-selling it for the moment.

Model 3 and especially Y launch event was underwhelming because of that.

But truck is so different in the line up I would not expect it to Osborne any existing product, so I believe Tesla would make a big noise with the event.

 

[Big Dog]

In Japan, Toyota are their own dealers and get a fair amount of revenue from service. They really do not want to lose that, which is why they have fought EVs at every turn. They are also very influential in government.....

Also true of German manufacturers, and US companies.

 

[jerry33]

So that leads me to the question. In America, we have over 200 million adults. Since the poverty rate is around 14%, that leaves about 172 million adult Americans who could possibly afford an EV. If we split that number into 2, that leaves us with 86 million adults not living in poverty that believe in climate change. Yet, EVs make up about ~2% of car sales in America. Tesla has literally sold around 500,000 cars in the U.S. in its entire existence.

So, please tell me, if people are SURE that climate change is real, and they believe that emissions are causing so many issues, WHY in the heck do they still chose to drive around in an ICEV? I mean, we're talking 87 MILLION PEOPLE!! Do you realize how much impact 87 million people could have? If they can't afford a $35k Tesla, surely they can afford a $15k used Leaf.

1. If Tesla could make them, they could sell them. Tesla appears to be only production limited.
2. A lot of people have seen the FUD, so the people who purchase a Tesla have likely talked to a Tesla owner.
3. Just because they are not in poverty, doesn't mean their finances support a new car. They may have just purchased on or still have some time to go before they get another one.
4. Some of those people live in crowded cities and don't have a car, or don't drive enough to warrant getting a new one.
5. Some of those people only buy a used car.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Toyota is playing catch up in the EV arena. The Japan 3 see whats happening in China and the rest of the world in regards to emission standards and are planning accordingly. As I stated in another thread, Tesla is the only EV company of any note. Today if someone wants an EV they are going to Tesla.com.

No one here is thinking about the day in a couple of years when see Honda,Toyota ,VW EVs advertised on TV or splashed across Yahoo.com. In that environment when the market is flooded with just as capable and maybe cheaper EVs than Tesla. That is the threat to Tesla.

So, a few problems:
1. They need to actually be “just as capable”. Thus far, the best efforts by everyone else have fallen far short. They just aren’t good at this. And, by the way, not just in terms of range/performance. Software ecosystem and features tie in here as well.
2. They need battery supplies to “flood the market”. Tesla is the only company with access to the quantity of batteries required to actually do much of anything.
3. Lots of claims of “cheaper”, but I’ve not seen that actually pan out... anywhere. The cheaper EV’s are all severely limited(either cheaper by the S/X by being the size of a 3 or limited range city cars) and/or sold at a heavy loss in small numbers for the ZEV credits. Nobody is managing the kind of economies Tesla is. Partially because Tesla just has better engineers for this but also partially because they’re so vertically integrated.

 

[jerry33]

Hold up. Is that gear cells, or gear modules?

It's gear heads.

 

[woodisgood]

With PG&E's impending doom, and Gov. Newsom calling for a buyout, I can't imagine there isn't an angle/deal for Tesla here?

I get that nobody wants to tackle PG&E's deteriorating infrastructure, nor assume the liability for it, of which there will be more and more. But my god, what an opportunity for someone to swoop in with some real forward-thinking solutions for the energy grid and the possibility of massive government support.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think a lot of the legacy OEM’s are just praying for a miracle battery because they’re stuck.

Yes, its the fallacy of "the perfect is the enemy of the good", in full view for the auto majors. Their Boards of Directors must be apoplectic. They have no future path without pain: significant growing pains now during the transition, or mortally wounded if they do not.

 

[mtndrew1]

With PG&E's impending doom, and Gov. Newsom calling for a buyout, I can't imagine there isn't an angle/deal for Tesla here?

I get that nobody wants to tackle PG&E's deteriorating infrastructure, nor assume the liability for it, of which there will be more and more. But my god, what an opportunity for someone to swoop in with some real forward-thinking solutions for the energy grid and the possibility of massive government support.

Not sure about any of this but I could certainly see PG&E creating neighborhood microgrids based on megapacks to circumvent these outages.

A trial would almost certainly be quick to deploy.

 

[goinfraftw]

I re-read this Wikipedia page: Paris Agreement - Wikipedia

...after reading it, does anyone else feel like we're all just armchair quarterbacks here on an already made win?

1. Ignoring the FUD, rationally understand that all countries (including SYRIA) decided to collaborate for the 1st time in history.
2. Paris Agreement is not legally bound, but collaboratively and consensus-ly (i.e. politically) bound.
3. At least $100B needs to be mobilized for climate change, worldwide, by 2020 going until 2025 ANNUALLY.
4. Agreement is bottom-up rather than enforced top-down across the planet.

There's a lot more I don't completely understand, but it's probably the most remarkable, world-wide, agreement human civilization has ever put together. I'm just going to ignore the FUD at this point; seems pretty contrived when taking the Paris Climate Accord into account fully.

Tesla just needs to be financially independent for the next 2-5 years while the oil industry attacks it with its dying breath. Hopefully demand for zero emission cars skyrockets within that time.

I still go back to this post exchange every once in awhile (and it was only 4-5 months ago). Look at where we're at now post-Q3 and realize... and with a little bit of .

 

[printf42]

I think Apple people want Elon as their CEO. He’s the only one innovating these days. Everyone else is releasing sequels

Goose bumps just for imagining Elon has 200B cash at his disposal.

 

[kengchang]

Notes from Panasonic Q2 2020
View attachment 471717

Can anyone explain this chart? I don't get it lol

 

[Todd Burch]

Um, fuel cells are not even close to better than battery tech in terms of refueling time. If I want to refuel my Mirai, I first need to tow it 1,100 miles from Denver to CA, fill it up, then tow it back.

Of course...I mean, I was assuming that the hydrogen (bomb) was being stored in your garage next to your charger. Perhaps that was an unrealistic assumption?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Only 3.1M shares traded at the half-way point in today's main session. With continued low volume and strong support at $313, I think we can declare the Post-Earnings bear raid over EDIT: NO JINX!

 

[Nocturnal]

The power outages have been a wake-up call, and folks all around me (including myself, my parents, in-laws, etc.) are starting to consider how to weather these in future years. Amongst those that are on the wealthier side, yes, solar roof/powerwall are on the table. Not as an immediate action item, but "when we need a new roof..." Unfortunately, amongst the folks I've spoken to that have less disposable income, everyone's talking about whole-house generators in the 4-5k range. Even with federal incentives solar/powerwall is not quite going to line up with people's self-interests. The solar subscription helps, but doesn't solve the problem people are worried about without purchase of powerwall.

Anyone who owns a house should be able to finance a solar/power wall if they handle their personal finances correctly. Buying a whole house generator that sits there 99% of the year vs a solar system that let's nets you free power and lets you arbitrage peak vs on-peak pricing should be a no-brainer. Even just powerwalls seems to be a better option in most cases. Generators are loud, stinky, and require maintenance. It really does go back to proper planning etc.

In Japan, Toyota are their own dealers and get a fair amount of revenue from service. They really do not want to lose that, which is why they have fought EVs at every turn. They are also very influential in government so they've successfully lobbied for FC development.

Toyota still seems stuck on Hydrogen. With their hybrid dominance they should have been at the forefront of EVs.

 

[EVNow]

It comes down to the battery pack cost. The car companies have a bigger motivator than Tesla to bring down battery pack costs. Tesla is trying to save the world, the car companies are not, they are trying to make money. All the gadgets and technology we have around us that improves our lives is because someone was trying to make money, not save the world.

Actually a lot of technologies come from defense industry - basically "save the country/world".

It shouldn't be surprising. Trying to stay alive is a bigger motivational factor than to have a bigger account balance.