Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

My 2011 Leaf has this feature. Honestly not sure what took Tesla so long here.

Edit: Arguably the Leaf timer is still superior as it can set two separate timers.

On the other hand, the Tesla system also does charging time by location, so you don’t accidentally find that you left your car plugged in at work all day with the timer making it not charge(as I’ve done with my LEAF)

 

[M3Rider]

My 2011 Leaf has this feature. Honestly not sure what took Tesla so long here.

Edit: Arguably the Leaf timer is still superior as it can set two separate timers.

VW eGolf had departuretime in 2015

Got it. It is still way better than ICE.
Maybe not a unique Tesla advantage.

 

[anthonyj]

Today is not the buy point. Check the article. 240 is the buy point. IBD article is using TA to point out that if TSLA hits ~240, it will be a buy. They didn't really explain their TA, but I think it's some kind of "cup and handle" pattern. I can only guess that 240 was the recent high (last week), and if TSLA hits that again, it would be a buy (according to them).

$340 you mean

 

[capster]

Here's an interesting back of the envelope calculation:

About 50 million people will fly into Las Vegas this year.*

Let’s say 3 in 4 of those 50 million passengers are there to visit the strip (42 million people visit the strip each year** and I’m guessing most don’t drive to Vegas) or 37.5 million.

Of those, how many will pay to take the Boring Tunnel and, incidentally, pay to take a test ride in a Tesla? How about half, 18.8 million?

But we’ll discount that by repeat customers. It seems 82%** of visitors have been to Vegas before, but we don’t what fraction will have taken the tunnel or ridden Tesla’s before. Let’s call it half again for the first couple years, or 9.4 million new impressions.

If Tesla saw a conversion rate of impressions to sales of 1000 to 1, that would be ~9400 vehicle sales.

Tl;dr Tesla might drive almost 10,000 vehicle sales per annum via the Vegas Boring tunnel alone. How cool is that? Who says Tesla doesn’t advertise?


* Las Vegas airport expects 50 million passengers in 2019

** https://www.casino.org/news/las-veg...itors-in-2018-but-repeat-visitation-increases

 

[EVNow]

I’ve talked to many of the oil and gas guys around West Texas and none of them view EV’s as a threat.

Tesla currently affects such a small segment of the market - oil industry doesn't care about Tesla. If anything the ones directly threatened by Tesla are MB, MBW, VW etc.

What oil industry cares in general about is climate change regulations. So, they fight it behind the scenes - away from the limelight. Lobbying, funding "scientists" etc.

 

[EVNow]

I’ll play.

I’ll say 114K +/- 2K.

Howzat?

Quit low balling

(ps : my estimate is 106.5)

 

[larmor]

The idea that there is a conspiracy by oil companies to hobble Tesla by shorting their stock is something that has been postulated many times on this board. The idea that anyone believes it is remarkable to me, just another example of the bias this board demonstrates every day. Attacking the character of your adversary is something worthy of a high schooler, although we see it all the time now.

First, stock manipulation is a crime. Second, gains and losses from stock positions are reported quarterly and not doing so is a crime. Third, a conspiracy like this would have to involve dozens of people and somewhere in there somebody would let it slip. Fourth, there is very little benefit to shorting the stock in any amount less than Billions of dollars - which makes it very hard to hide. Fifth, what happens if the stock goes to $1,000? How are you going to hide the Billions in losses? Six, why would any (very well compensated) executive take such a risky action? Seven, why would any exec expose themselves to blackmail? I'm sure there are many more reasons why this theory is ridiculous, but I limited myself to the first ones to come to mind.

If you believed in this conspiracy - for even a minute - you need to look inwards and find whatever it is that has caused you to lose your "center." This is an investment board, and the money is real. It can affect your life in a big way. Look at both sides of the story and make judgements without the religious fervor.

With that said, I love the products, I love the stock and I expect to never sell my shares.

Who would have that we would put soldiers-our friends and our neighbors lives on the line to protect oil? I mean it’s just oil and no one in the oil industry would risk money or lives to protect their market, their product future and future business stream.
Frankly I’m not sure why we don’t install a gas station at each house because I’m so tired of plugging this phone in at night...

 

[mongo]

Here's an interesting back of the envelope calculation:

About 50 million people will fly into Las Vegas this year.*

Let’s say 3 in 4 of those 50 million passengers are there to visit the strip (42 million people visit the strip each year** and I’m guessing most don’t drive to Vegas) or 37.5 million.

Of those, how many will pay to take the Boring Tunnel and, incidentally, pay to take a test ride in a Tesla? How about half, 18.8 million?

But we’ll discount that by repeat customers. It seems 82%** of visitors have been to Vegas before, but we don’t what fraction will have taken the tunnel or ridden Tesla’s before. Let’s call it half again for the first couple years, or 9.4 million new impressions.

If Tesla saw a conversion rate of impressions to sales of 1000 to 1, that would be ~9400 vehicle sales.

Tl;dr Tesla might drive almost 10,000 vehicle sales per annum via the Vegas Boring tunnel alone. How cool is that? Who says Tesla doesn’t advertise?


* Las Vegas airport expects 50 million passengers in 2019

** https://www.casino.org/news/las-veg...itors-in-2018-but-repeat-visitation-increases

Is there an extension to the convention center people mover in progress? Current listed project is only one mile with no vehicle access.
Las Vegas — The Boring Company
The convention center had 6.5 million visitors in 2018, so that is great advertising. Monthly Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Executive Summary | LVCVA

 

[davecolene0606]

This is spoken like someone who has actually dealt with the issue. My first complete off-grid project was an island in the Bahamas in the 1980's. Subsequently I have had solar in four other projects in three continents. Since the first one I have had to argue with 'experts' on positioning for the best average and positioning for optimal use. I have learned a lot, but constantly realize how little I really know.

As various Chinese suppliers and Tesla, among many others, advance technologically it seems far easier to position for optimal results. I suspect version 5 or so of Tesla roof will include active directional optimization. We seem to be nearing some major breakthroughs, one of which certainly is the advent of bi-directional panels that are installable to be quite effective sunshades too.

My large question is when Tesla Energy will become as creative and effective in power generation as they already are in storage and system management. That would be revolutionary. Do you have insight on that issue?

To pile on a bit, when I had 2 power walls installed, I had 12KW of PV. The max I could have on the system is 15KW limited by the Powerwalls. I had an additional 3KW of PV added to my East facing roof on the logic that, in my location, the morning has the least cloud cover and that advantages filling the Powerwalls early and first.

So IMHO most efficient doesn’t always equal most KWH added.

I am in agreement with your premise and in practice for my system it is working.

Fire Away!

 

[Antares Nebula]

$340 you mean

Ah, yes! Thanks. Been in the 200s for so long, I keep thinking in the 2 handle.

 

[capster]

Is there an extension to the convention center people mover in progress? Current losted project is only one mile with no vehicle access.
Las Vegas — The Boring Company
The convention center had 6.5 million visitors in 2018, so that is great advertising. Monthly Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Executive Summary | LVCVA

Yeah, guess I am kinda speculating out to what seems to me like the natural evolution.

Nevertheless and AFAIK, Tesla cars will be used. In your first link, it states: "Standard AEVs [Autonomous Electric Vehicles] are Tesla Model X and Model 3 vehicles. High-occupancy AEVs use a modified Tesla Model X chassis to transport up to 16 passengers with both sitting and standing room."

Or am I misunderstanding what you mean by "no vehicle access"?

 

[Antares Nebula]

Quit low balling

(ps : my estimate is 106.5)

From trend data and Elon's comments on CC, seems 105-110k is very realistic, with a possible upside surprise above 110k (not including GF3). Min breakdown: 85k M3 and 20k S,X.

 

[davecolene0606]

It's all about Model 3 production rates. That, and that alone, determines how many they will deliver this quarter (within a few thousand due to end-of-quarter inventory uncertainty and S/X uncertainty). Model 3 order backlogs have gotten absurd.

S/X is what needs to be watched with respect to demand. Tesla apparently expects high demand, as they're upping production, according to the earnings call.

From all that I have read and listened to from calls Corp coms and Elon stuff, seems like ideal run rate will be 100K of S&X with varying mix between models. I think this is a sustainable market size and gives Tesla a platform to launch new stuff for the mass produced vehicles (I know it doesn’t seem that way now) while keeping the halo effect airborne.

Fire Away!

 

[EVNow]

From all that I have read and listened to from calls Corp coms and Elon stuff, seems like ideal run rate will be 100K of S&X with varying mix between models. I think this is a sustainable market size and gives Tesla a platform to launch new stuff for the mass produced vehicles (I know it doesn’t seem that way now) while keeping the halo effect airborne.

Fire Away!

2019 says 100k is too high

ps : They'll probably end 2019 with about 65k s/x. When Y comes online, it may cannibalize a bit of X - again. I think 80k is probably what they can sell with good ASP & margin. Its better to have s/x production at slightly less than demand rather than the other way round.

 

[kengchang]

From all that I have read and listened to from calls Corp coms and Elon stuff, seems like ideal run rate will be 100K of S&X with varying mix between models. I think this is a sustainable market size and gives Tesla a platform to launch new stuff for the mass produced vehicles (I know it doesn’t seem that way now) while keeping the halo effect airborne.

Fire Away!

100K S/X is not possible unless Tesla introduces 75kWh model again.

 

[NakedLong]

Surprisingly in-depth and honest article about the end of the ICE age in the German media today. Including Fremont factory visit.

The End of an Era: Will Tesla and Google Kill the German Car? - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International

Interesting how so many people still put Waymo ahead of Tesla for FSD. AFAICT Tesla is ahead based on data advantage, and Waymo is valued between 100-200 billion. There is going to be a rude awakening at some point when people realise Tesla is going to win that race.

Something is very clear to me - the German automakers are completely ****ed. They will spend the next 10 years coming to terms with their demise rather than restructuring.

If they wanted to survive they would partner with Tesla for skateboards and superchargers, partner with Waymo for FSD, stop producing ICE cars completely, and take this chance to also cut out their dealer network.... but they won't do any of this. Not even the German government will be able to bail them out of the hole they will dig for themselves.

 

[davecolene0606]

Here are the Q1 headwinds as I see them:

• About ~1 month of SR+ demand pull forward from Q1 to Q4 in the U.S. according to @neroden's pull forward model when applied to $1,875. About 2 weeks of pull forward for S/X. January InsiderEVs numbers will probably suck, and the FUD will be thick.
• Netherlands pull forward from 2020 into Q4 is probably brutal, I expect a fraction of the Q4 sales in Q1. (@Right_Said_Fred might offer some color on this.)
• Q1 is seasonally weaker in the northern hemisphere.
• Model Y might have an effect on Model 3 and Model X orders in the U.S. Yeah, I know what Elon said about this on the Q3 ER call, but I think he's being optimistic.
• Plaid in summer might Osborne S/X sales in Q1.
• Freshly opened international markets might shift more toward SR+, after the initial pent-up effect.

But Q1 will also have the tailwinds you mentioned, plus, in the U.S., additional tailwinds:

• no government shutdown,
• no China trade war,
• no NASDAQ and Dow crash of -30% creating consumer anxiety over high ticket price discretionary spending,
• no fearmongering about a U.S. recession
• baseline awareness and organic demand for EVs is increasing about 30% YoY - so Tesla will have a good shot at beating Q1'2018 numbers.

Plus in the UK there might finally be clarity and a softer Brexit. Plus first Model 3 sales in Iceland.

... hopefully ...

IMHO, I don’t think Plaid will osbourne S&X as it will be sold at a significant premium. Think P85D v S75.

Fire Away!

 

[davecolene0606]

100K S/X is not possible unless Tesla introduces 75kWh model again.

I think that is the limit on the market worldwide all in and it matches their capacity.

Fire Away!

 

[EVNow]

High FSD deferred revenue recognition, inflow from FCA should start in Q1 and ramp of (hopefully) higher margined 3s out of GF3.

Why do you think 3s out of GF3 will be high margin in Q1 ?

 

[HG Wells]

This past week I was in Tuscaloosa at the University of Alabama teaching a class on Cimplicity software.
Only saw one other Tesla, a white model X.

There are still many untouched markets in the US.