Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

I could see that. No matter how much Elon downplays the long term & steady state impact of S and X to Tesla's auto business they have a big role to play in the present to enable Tesla to self fund continued expansion. Elon said management was surprised with low sales levels of S & X on the Q2 2019 conference call and proposed that potential buyers were confused in just how much the cars had improved over time. I wouldn't be surprised if right around there they decided they needed to be even better and set a plan in motion.

I think the "Like Tesla" rumours pre-date that Q2 2019 call, and refresh speculation on Model S/X has been rampant for some time.

So I think they have been working on the Plaid versions for sometime, but keeping it quiet for as long as possible, so as to not further impact on sales.

Sales took a hit for all sorts of reasons.. I'm not sure how surprised they were, but Q1 2019 was a bad quarter all round..

With the need to test on the 'ring, they could hardly keep it secret any longer, and perhaps there was little to lose...

The Plaid Model S/X are also in response to the Taycan, the spec of the Taycan and 'ring time have been know for sometime..

Whether or not Tesla decide to accelerated their plans at any stage is hard to guess.

The other thing that is hard to guess is if they will keep making Model S/X with the normal body shape. The Plaid design suggests some hit to range, a bigger battery could counter that, but a bigger battery in the current body may go further. If I was to make a guess in this area, I would need to toss a coin...

 

[MP3Mike]

Speaking of the Plaid Model S SoylentBrown made an interesting comment today:

SoylentBrown
@BrownSoylent
·
7h

Thanks to a helpful transport employee we got a brief look under the skirt of the blue Tesla. There's so rather interesting surprises coming. Stay tuned (not just to me). You'll find some highly unusual and creative solutions in the Plaid powertrain...

SoylentBrown
@BrownSoylent
·
7h

Teaser: I thought about washing machines when I saw it....

 

[StealthP3D]

Speaking of the Plaid Model S SoylentBrown made an interesting comment today:

Teaser: I thought about washing machines when I saw it....

Sounds like it might have a CVT.

 

[MC3OZ]

Speaking of the Plaid Model S SoylentBrown made an interesting comment today:

I saw that unfortunately the Teaser means nothing to me ...

 

[EVNow]

Shanghai Model 3’s SR++ are listed online for $48,000, probably assuming it will take a year or more to catch up to demand. If the plant and labor is less expensive, then the COGS out of Shanghai should be lower. Maybe they’ll accelerate depreciation and try to keep margins lower, but cash flow should be amazing at 10-15k per car. I believe they will begin phase 3 as soon as production begins to build more 3’s or 3 and Y as soon as possible. phase 3 will be faster then phase 1, since the stamping facility is already built.

In Q1 - we should expect lots of parts (probably including the battery) going from US to China. They will slowly increase the local content. I don't expect high margins in Q1 when still ramping up. May be by Q4.

BTW, is that $48k inclusive of sales tax / VAT ?

 

[Fact Checking]

I just discovered a Tesla delivery estimator account Troy Teslike: Twitter. I guess he’s well known. He’s currently guesstimating 104k Tesla deliveries for Q4 Let’s see a show of hands - who here thinks that Tesla/Musk would let themselves fall 1000 vehicles short of their delivery guidance for the year?

He's @Troy here on TMC, and AFAICS his October 11 estimates are mostly extrapolated from baseline historic trends and some early order/VIN data.

If that's the early-quarter methodology then I approve of that approach, and it's not really appropriate to adjust the early estimates up or down based on annual guidance figures - yet at least. As end of Q4 gets closer the numbers will be adjusted by several thousand units anyway.

Note that he made the October 11 estimates before the October 23 Q3 earnings report and earnings call - which included various pieces of information about a stronger Q4 order book relative to Q3, both for the Model 3 and S/X.

I suspect his November 11 update in a week will be higher - both the price increases and the increase in delivery estimates in the Tesla configurator suggest a strong quarter.

A small note to @Troy: the Oct 11 Q4 estimates includes 3k locally made Model 3's delivered in China, based on the local glass maker leak. The latest leak to CleanTechnica suggests that while up to 3k units might be made in Q4, they'll only be delivered in early Q1. That would make sense, to flush as much U.S.-made China inventory at the end of Q4 as possible.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Speaking of the Plaid Model S SoylentBrown made an interesting comment today:

Sounds like it might have a CVT.

Or direct drive? Fewer parts, less weight, lower friction loss. Maybe they figured out how to make a high torque low rpm motor thats still small & light?

https://www.twice.com/product/how-direct-drive-will-revolutionize-washing-machine-market-38075

 

[abasile]

OT but yet à propos: Had a lot of sudden EAP disconnects lately when driving towards a low sitting sun. Hazard lights went on until car recognised steering input. Hope that HW3 will not be blinded as easily.

That's interesting, because I've noticed that our HW2.5 Model 3 has more difficulty completing NOA lane changes when driving toward a low-on-the-horizon sun. Overall, NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) has made substantial progress.

Also, Autopilot has recently gotten far more reliable on mountain roads. It now handles curves where I previously counted on having to intervene to avoid crossing into oncoming traffic. The main downside is that it still slows for curves much more than I'd like, to the point of being annoying to other drivers. When I hold down the accelerator to get it to maintain the speed of other cars on the curves, it's common to see warnings and the car drifting too close to the center line. It's still very encouraging to see the progress. For now, though, I normally turn off Autopilot once we get back into the mountains.

 

[reardencode]

Or direct drive? Fewer parts, less weight, lower friction loss. Maybe they figured out how to make a high torque low rpm motor thats still small & light?

https://www.twice.com/product/how-direct-drive-will-revolutionize-washing-machine-market-38075

That makes perfect sense for how they landed on a 3 motor system. 1 high RPM lower torque motor with a reduction gear on one axle for lower speed performance, 2 lower RPM higher torque motors direct driving the other axle for higher speed performance. Also plays well with the unique turbine like whine that folks heard the Plaid Model S making at Nurburgring.

Given that, I'd _guess_ that the 2 motors would be up front, and the 1 motor in the rear. Rear can use the geared torque better at launch, and separate motors may simplify suspension slightly up front.

Edit: Also, I had been wondering how they fit 3 motors into the skate. Direct drive is how. Puzzle pieces fit.

 

[SpaceCash]

We can expect the FUD to become a bit more subtle, sophisticated and less obvious in the coming months in response to this.

Absolutely, and we are already seeing this in some posts here.

 

[abasile]

If electric cars were ten times better than ICE cars then the transition would be complete in ten years ... but they aren't. How many new Tesla buyers crush their old cars? Zero. The car you sold to buy your new Tesla will very likely still be burning fuel ten years from now. Do you think Greta will want to take a sailboat from NY to Shanghai or fly on a carbon powered rocket?

Both cars replaced by our Teslas were totaled. One car was rear ended while we were stopped in traffic, on an icy road, several months before taking delivery of the Model 3. The other car was totaled (if I recall correctly) by the new owner within a couple of years of our buying the Model S.

The fuel for Elon's "carbon powered rocket" can be produced using renewable energy, via the Sabatier process.

 

[kengchang]

S,X can easily do 100k if they refresh/redesign it. (Bear in mind that EV market penetration overall is still in its infancy.) Maybe with plaid powertrain, V3 max supercharge rate, and some interior refresh.

Elon is really being coy about S,X, saying on the CC that it's not really important, but then going ballistic on twitter with plaid powertrain and kicking porsche butt. They're up to something, but trying not to osborne current S,X sales. Expect some sort of surprise around this line next year.

It's limited by the 18650 cell output from Japan and Tesla has no intention to ask Panasonic to expand production.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ive been very reluctant to sell any shares up to this point and after the post Q3 run up Im glad I didn‘t. But it still bothers me every time I see the stock randomly drop from manipulation. My new strategy is to hold my core position, swing trade about 10 shares, and stay out of options completely. This way I feel like I can stick it to the manipulators, but I wont miss the big run up to $1000+. Thanks for all the not advice.

Pretty much what I do. For those side bets, I like to place orders in advance GTC+Ext. The swings are too quick at times to get in/out.
However, a scenario exist where you sell some and never get to buy back in (or you finally do much higher up and kick yourself). It kinda makes it fun to play.

 

[Paracelsus]

GF5 or GF6 really needs to be in India with significant support from the Indian Government. This is a humanitarian crisis.

To help put this in perspective, during some of our more severe forest fire smoke events in the Pacific NW we typically don't experience PM2.5 levels exceeding 250-300, and that is miserable. These unfortunate people in Delhi are living at 3-4 times those levels on a daily basis.

 

[MP3Mike]

View attachment 473327

GF5 or GF6 really needs to be in India with significant support from the Indian Government. This is a humanitarian crisis.

Didn't Elon say that they select the order/location of GFs based on the volume of Teslas that are purchased in the area? And since India has such horrible import rules/taxes Tesla has no presence there which means it isn't likely to be picked as the location for a GF anytime soon. (You don't build a factory where there is no proof of demand.)

So I think the government will need to make a deal to get Tesla into the country before a GF will be considered there.

 

[Paracelsus]

Agreed @MP3Mike - that discussion did occur several years ago IIRC. But this is a situation that is not really unlike the Hornsdale Battery project evolution.......where a grassroots movement started on social media by Michael Cannon Brookes and Elon ultimately created a project that was needed to improve the lives of local people, industry, and the sustainability of the Planet, even though it was fought tooth and nail by many politicians and fossil fuel industry leaders. What is happening in Delhi is South Australia on Steroids, and this can change too. The government of India must bend its own rules for this.

 

[JustMe]

View attachment 473327

GF5 or GF6 really needs to be in India with significant support from the Indian Government. This is a humanitarian crisis.

To help put this in perspective, during some of our more severe forest fire smoke events in the Pacific NW we typically don't experience PM2.5 levels exceeding 250-300, and that is miserable. These unfortunate people in Delhi are living at 3-4 times those levels on a daily basis.

Unfortunately I think the premium auto market in India is just too small to sustain a Tesla GF. It’s a bit surprising given a country of over 1 billion people that just 40,000 vehicles in the Tesla price range are sold annually. Maybe if the economic growth rate stays strong etc Tesla could have a presence there in a few years. But yes - I hope they work toward fresher air somehow

Why cracking India's booming car market is not so simple

 

[StealthP3D]

However, a scenario exist where you sell some and never get to buy back in (or you finally do much higher up and kick yourself). It kinda makes it fun to play.

So, you're saying you are a masochist?

The problem here is the share price is determined by investor sentiment which is really hard to predict in advance. We are likely close to a "step change" in the way investors think about Tesla (meaning within a year or perhaps as long as two). When that happens the share price will probably run up unexpectedly well past your sell point. The few thousand here and there that you may have been able to "scalp" will more likely than not pale in comparison to what you missed out on. I understand you think you are avoiding that problem since you are only trading a portion of your TSLA investment but that is really irrelevant (you have to look at every dollar individually). The only way that strategy makes any sense is if you want to partially hedge your long position because you think Tesla might not ever amount to much or might be a losing investment (by reducing exposure when you think Tesla might decline).

While I agree that would have been a good strategy over the last several years (assuming you have better than average ability to time the drops and the rises), the past behavior does not indicate future behavior and we are likely entering a new phase.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Unfortunately I think the premium auto market in India is just too small to sustain a Tesla GF. It’s a bit surprising given a country of over 1 billion people that just 40,000 vehicles in the Tesla price range are sold annually. Maybe if the economic growth rate stays strong etc Tesla could have a presence there in a few years. But yes - I hope they work toward fresher air somehow

Why cracking India's booming car market is not so simple

That plus any GF production there would be at least 2-3 years out. Next up they have to do GF4 in Europe to keep earning their bread and butter. Doing that they are not only capital but also human resource constrained. Building a high tech factory like that is not a matter of handing out the blueprints to a contractor. (Well maybe for the shell it is)

 

[RobStark]

GF in India?

India Turns Its Back on Freer Trade