Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Yea in terms of price and range it really looks like they are trying to go tow to tow with the Model Y. I think the Model Y is actually going to have slightly better specs then what was originally announced when it comes out though.

Overall though if this all holds up pretty good job by Ford. Much better then some of the other auto companies. Hopefully they actually try and sell a lot of them.

For the record, here's a comparison between the First Edition (e.g. the one that comes out in a year) and Tesla's current lineup:

Vehicle..... Date.. Price. O-60. Range... Cargo PeakCharge. 0-60%Charge
Model 3 AWD.. Now $39,5k. 4,4s. 322mi. 43,6ft³... 1108mph...... 772mph
Model S LR... Now $72,6k. 3,7s. 373mi. 58,1ft³.... 563mph...... 524mph
Model Y AWD Q2'19 $52,0k. 4,8s. 280mi. 66,0ft³.....964mph...... 672mph
Model X LR... Now $84,9k. 4,4s. 345mi. 87,8ft³.... 521mph...... 485mph
Mach E 1st. Q4'19 $59,9k ~5,5s ~270mi. 59,6ft³.... 282mph...... 282mph
-7,5kcredit...... $52,2k

* Assuming no Tesla price/stat improvements over the course of 1 year and no changes to the (Tesla-disadvantageous) tax credit system.

Anyone actually impressed by this? Show of hands.

 

[anthonyj]

Who else sees another Tesla logo? Another vehicle in the pic? Cybertruck and regular truck?

 

[bhtooefr]

@KarenRei: Correction, Model Y AWD is 280 miles, not 300 miles (that's LR RWD). (Which is still more than 270 miles.)

And, Model 3 AWD is 322 miles (still much more than any Mach-E).

 

[Sancho]

The Mach E is a crossover hatchback thingy.

Ford sells plenty of those. And a fair number of Mustangs. As far as two door sports coupes/ sports cars goes.

Ford abandoned sedans. Mach E is not a sedan.

Ford has also sold about 140k PEVs in the US. More PHEV Energis than Focus BEVs but still has a pool of PEV buyers.

Buying a Ford with Federal Tax credit vs GM PEV without Tax credit seems like a no brainer.

And there are plenty of folks without a Tesla service center within 25 miles. Pretty much every American lives within 25 miles of a Ford dealer.

Ford this year has only sold 55,000 Mustangs. Each year they sell fewer of them. I’d be shocked if more than 10% of current Mustang owners buy a Mustang EV for their next car. So that’s 5000 sales there.

 

[Sancho]

I don’t want to over-generalize here, but is the typical Ford buyer a likely candidate for early adopter EV switching? And a $50k car is a luxury car. How many Ford buyers are going to pony up for that?

Take a look at which cars are being traded in for Teslas. How many Fords do you see?

 

[powertoold]

I don’t want to over-generalize here, but is the typical Ford buyer a likely candidate for early adopter EV switching? And a $50k car is a luxury car. How many Ford buyers are going to pony up for that?

Take a look at which cars are being traded in for Teslas. How many Fords do you see?

There were a lot of Bolt early adopters, but the biggest issue for a lot of buyers is long distance travel. Until there are more 1st/3rd party fast chargers, the legacy OEMs won't gain much traction.

I think if the legacy OEMs can reduce the pain of long distance travel, they'll be fine.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Who else sees another Tesla logo? Another vehicle in the pic? Cybertruck and regular truck?

I'm still not ruling out regular truck as the one more thing. Cybertruck will be great but feels like it has the potential to be too quirky for customers to move en masse to the new format.

 

[Unpilot]

Who else sees another Tesla logo? Another vehicle in the pic? Cybertruck and regular truck?

well...yes...maybe...if I squint real hard and close one eye.

 

[Fred42]

Ford this year has only sold 55,000 Mustangs. Each year they sell fewer of them. I’d be shocked if more than 10% of current Mustang owners buy a Mustang EV for their next car. So that’s 5000 sales there.

Time will tell, but the Mustang tie-in might be a mistake. The Mustang is something from the past, first introduced 55 years ago. They could have made this CUV look better without the Mustang styling cues. And I'm skeptical about the amount of respect this poseur Mustang will get. The VW ID3 looks good and it looks fresh and it looks like a car for the future. Hopefully the final designs for VW ID models that will be sold in the US will look as good.

 

[JRP3]

So, CUVs (which, contrary to earlier discussion, are SUV-like vehicles that aren't set up for offroad, due to fundamentally being tall cars

Here's some cars you "can't" take off road They aren't even "tall"

 

[nativewolf]

In the US.

In Europe they are doing quite well.

Ummhhhh, no. No they are not. Not even close to meeting goals. No waiting lists, not hundreds of people waiting on boats to deliver.

Tesla has not built out a full EU reach but once done....I can't see any Version 1 of the aforementioned doing well nor having useful resale values.

 

[nativewolf]

In order to compete with first mover Tesla, Ford had to do one of two things:

1. Offer a better deal. Say, a car with 200 mile range for $32k.

2. Offer a car that has better styling. Or at least different styling.

The Mustang appears to be a very commendable effort. But by merely copying Tesla on styling and price, it’s a fail.

Yes, 5 years ago this could have done ok..maybe. IF Ford had committed to all the other network support (SC, OTA Updates for all software, progressive improvements in Autonomy).

 

[ggies07]

I'm both excited and terrified to see what they cooked up.

 

[elasalle]

VedaPrime on Twitter

 

[pnungesser]

Like Jaguar, Ford will claim yes.

In reality you will only be able to download trivial software.

For extensive firmware fixes, it will require visits to the dealer.

For Ford loyalist that think Tesla is "fledgling" and Ford is an Iron Fortress guaranteed to see the 22nd Century Mach-E will be a very compelling option.

I also think CCS Network will be good enough by the start of Q4 next year.

If Ford is serious, and let's assume that they are, it would be easy to require each dealership to add a fast charging station. Hell, there's a Ford dealership in almost every town.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes,

Additional income cap of $200k for individuals and $350k for two income households. The standard BEV rebate has been reduced from $2500 to $2k.

There is a bonus rebate for low-moderate income families.

A family of four making 300% of Federal Poverty Income level ($77,250) or less qualify for a larger rebate of $4500.

Each household now only qualifies for 1 lifetime rebate. Unlimited before.

No multiple rebates for Teslanaires. Long term this is the only way to defend the CA rebate program from Oil Industry propaganda.

Thanks - I agree with you, although the whole US subsidy thang with limits is very flawed. As always, stop the fossil subsidy and we're all good to drop all EV subsidies.

Copied some of your text to Twitter, txs.

 

[willow_hiller]

If Ford is serious, and let's assume that they are, it would be easy to require each dealership to add a fast charging station. Hell, there's a Ford dealership in almost every town.

The question then is: can all those dealerships afford to stay in business when they're no longer making money from servicing ICE vehicles?

 

[Tslynk67]

AND what exactly is wrong with Windows 95 ?

Well for a start it's noy OSX. Next!

On-topic - we all know there's a $350 cap on the SP this week to try and trim the huge losses the MM's are likely taking on the recent steep rise, but I feel they'll have theior worklk cut-out to keep it down today. Unless we get the usual options-Friday OI intervention, that is...

 

[HG Wells]

Let's do da math for Ford.

If charging in the knee of the curve gets you 47 miles in 10 minutes how long to get 80 % charge ?

Assume it's the 300 mile battery. 80 % of 300 is 240.

If it could charge at full speed the entire time 240 / 47 * 10 = 51 minutes

If full speed for first 50% then 2/3 for next 10 % then 1/2 for next 10% then 1/4 speed for next 10 %.
(5.1 * 5) + (5.1 * 3/2) + (5.1 * 2) + (5.1 * 4) = 63.75 minutes *

*Yes I know but it will be close.

Ford is definitely better,
provides more time for a leisurely lunch.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered

Great article. Worth a read.