Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Given we’ve now had reveals for Semi, Roadster, Y and soon Pickup, what are the crowd’s thoughts on what Tesla’s next product reveal will be and when?

During the Jun 2018 AGM, Elon said 'about 4 years' for the compact or sub-compact car. I expect it out of the new Shanghai engineeering team in 2 years, and I expect it to be called Model 2. Then maybe some truck derivatives in the U.S. like vans, buses & campers, after Cybertruck has ramped to volume production.

Elon told Ryan McCaffre 'they're no point in increasing complexity without putting more vehicles on the road'. So it all depends on how fast they can ramp battery producton. Vehicle efficiency will continue to be a major focus, since a car with a smaller pack but the same range has a similar effect as increasing battery production.

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

I think this is likely to be true. I follow lots of shorts. Recently when a short was talking trash about Tesla, Chanos said if Tesla can keep $25B revenue, it should be fine.

Chanos should know Tesla's revenue will be way more than 25B next year. This combined with the Bloomberg survey results, GF3 gross margin 35~40%, strong Q4 sales, Plaid Model S setting record on track, the stock performance, joining S&P 500 index next year...... all point to one thing: he is wrong, and he knows it. So I was thinking it's only a matter of time when he will close his short on Tesla. I actually hope he will stay short for longer.

After Chanos closes, David Einhorn etc. will panic and close too. These guys already lost confidence, they know they are wrong, they just want to stay stubborn for a little longer.

As a reference, in early 2016, Chanos said he shorted BABA (the stock was around 60). It reached 100 in Jan 2017. Later when someone asked Chanos about his short on BABA, he said he was wrong on BABA, he started closing since Jan 2017. Later 2017, the stock hit above $200.

Since Tesla is a smaller company with much bigger potential relative to BABA, and it's so heavily shorted, I think the squeeze could get much bigger percentage wise compared to BABA.

Long time ago I said to shorts, none of them can give a valid thesis for shorting Tesla. I asked them who is the smartest that's shorting Tesla, they all said Chanos. That's embarrassing. So Chanos is the leader they all look up to. Now if the leader quits (still needs confirmation), the followers will cry.

Do you have a link to where Chanos said Tesla would be fine if it keeps $25 Billion revenue?

I am a little dubious about the supposed bloomberg article claim as I have not seen anyone else other than that one single person claim they saw it. Hope its true though.

EDIT: Found that mention on twitter. You are right it sounds like he might be pulling back from his short thesis somewhat. (Note: Chanos is Diogenes @wallstcynic)

 

[Curt Renz]

Today’s closing:

–0.66% GM
–0.56% F
–0.45% FCAU
+2.72% TSLA

 

[willow_hiller]

I am a little dubious about the supposed bloomberg article claim as I have not seen anyone else other than that one single person claim they saw it. Hope its true though.

If Bloomberg actually published something, you think more than one person would have seen it.

If this turns out to be true, my guess is that TeslaTested was tipped off about a soon-to-be published article that was pulled shortly after they reached out to Chanos for comment.

 

[sparcs]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but Bloomberg is reporting that Jim Chanos has covered, suffering a $175 million loss!

Tesla Tested on Twitter

EDIT: Author of the tweet is claiming Bloomberg has removed the article. Be skeptical for now...

Tomorrow is going to be interesting. Will this rumor spook enough people?

 

[copyhacker]

Mordor ~ Boca Chica

https://www.space.com/amp/spacex-starship-mk1-test-campaign-begins.html?jwsource=cl

Or Mars.

Maybe ”Gentrify Mordor” is just another way to say “Occupy Mars”.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Tomorrow is going to be interesting. Will this rumor spook enough people?

This reply to his tweet cracked me up!!

"Oh Lord, I know know you’ve given us so much this Quarter but if you can also hear this prayer and make this true, I promise not to troll disproportionately."

Dude didn't promise not to troll - only not to troll disproportionately. Which, in this case, would be unlimited trolling!! So he's not promising much. Too funny.

 

[Curt Renz]

If Bloomberg actually published something, you think more than one person would have seen it.

If this turns out to be true, my guess is that TeslaTested was tipped off about a soon-to-be published article that was pulled shortly after they reached out to Chanos for comment.

A possibility is that he is still in the process of covering, and asked Bloomberg to hold off until he is done, if they want the full and exclusive story. But that is mere speculation. We may soon know the truth.

 

[M3Rider]

Tomorrow is going to be interesting. Will this rumor spook enough people?

And if it does, should we rinse and repeat?

 

[Swampgator]

Challenge accepted:

• SRPM motors everywhere: all vehicles/trucks (no more AC induction motors)
  • 100% torque at stall w/o overheating in Semi
  • 400+ kph top speed @ 20K rpm with a single speed gearbox in Roadster
• SiC MOSFETS in all inverters (98+% efficency; More rge/pwr; less energy use)
• Retire the 12v Lead Acid bty (DC-DC converter from HV pack to hotel loads)
  • dramatic decrease in wiring cost+weight to data bus architecture
  • increased reliability w/o frequent 12v bty replacements

That should do it for powertrain. But the big NEWS at 'Bty Day' in Q1 will be the NextGen Maxcells, and the fleet of 'G-cubes' that will build them at the rate of 2TWh/yr.

I predict it'll be the end of the 2020s to reach 2TWh/yr capacity (2020 @ approx. 50GWh/yr * 1.5^9 to build that 40x increase in capacity)

Cheers!

One problem with #1. Induction machines can be "idled" at highway speeds, increasing efficiency. SRPM machines can not.

 

[Singer3000]

During the Jun 2018 AGM, Elon said 'about 4 years' for the compact or sub-compact car. I expect it out of the new Shanghai engineeering team in 2 years, and I expect it to be called Model 2. Then maybe some truck derivatives in the U.S. like vans, buses & campers, after Cybertruck has ramped to volume production.

Elon told Ryan McCaffre 'they're no point in increasing complexity without putting more vehicles on the road'. So it all depends on how fast they can ramp battery producton. Vehicle efficiency will continue to be a major focus, since a car with a smaller pack but the same range has a similar effect as increasing battery production.

Cheers!

I guess I am coming from the perspective that there is a plan to aggressively ramp battery production, because without that even the announced pipeline can't be fulfilled, yet alone the 2TWh / year statements. My thought really was what could be announced in late 2020 for production in 2022/23.

I have mentioned before but the obvious spill-out from the Pickup and Semi programmes for me are mining and construction vehicles, which have little amounts of down time so the economics of going electric really shines through.

For underground mining, you'd be able to eliminate the cost of extracting diesel fumes caused by work vehicles in the tunnels, which also massively improves worker safety (though ventilation would still be needed). For open pit mining, the superior power and handling on poorly laid feeder roads and steep (often very wet) pit tracks would also be of massive benefit. In a lot of use cases you'd most likely need to ally this with large scale solar and storage (and charging solutions) but in a lot of mining areas this would have the added benefit of bringing down processing costs as well.

Go one step further and put an end to the nonsense of Australia shipping its alumina to China so it can be processed into aluminium (translation: aluminum) using coal powered electricity! It's high time to green mining.

Cat are already working on electric excavators. Their market cap still exceeds Tesla's. I'd love Tesla to either partner up with them on the skeleton skateboard with Cat providing the expertise on the rest of the vehicle or else compete directly. Too big/important a market to ignore from both a $$$ and CO2 perspective, especially when you consider an often very inefficient diesel supply chains to a lot of mines.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Oh baby I love this.

"Chanos makes money once a decade"

Chamath Palihapitiya on Elon Musk and Tesla

 

[KarenRei]

Challenge accepted:

• SRPM motors everywhere: all vehicles/trucks (no more AC induction motors)

Terrible move. Tesla pairs a PM and an induction motor for a reason - you can't freewheel a PM without magnetic drag . You can't shut off a permanent magnet. Look at Ford - their dual PM AWD version gets 10% less range than their RWD version. Tesla's difference between AWD and RWD has usually only been about 5% (325mi vs 310mi) to 7% (300mi vs. 280mi).

The induction motor doesn't generally overheat, even on the track, because the controller always prefers to send power to the PM motor, only diverting power to the induction motor where needed for extra torque or traction. And even on the track you don't drive around with the pedal constantly floored.

• SiC MOSFETS in all inverters (98+% efficency; More rge/pwr; less energy use)

Isn't that already the case? Also, I certainly don't expect them to be out there announcing nerdy tech details.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but Bloomberg is reporting that Jim Chanos has covered, suffering a $175 million loss!

Tesla Tested on Twitter

EDIT: Author of the tweet is claiming Bloomberg has removed the article. Be skeptical for now...

Be patient. The truth always comes out. A source familiar with will be out and about soon enough.

 

[RFernatt]

Be patient. The truth always comes out. A source familiar with will be out and about soon enough.

I'm sure Dana and Linette are all over it!

EDIT: Actually, if the rumor were true, this would be an interesting test. Would they:

a) cover it for the clicks
b) not cover it due to their need to grind an axe
c) get someone else to cover it
d) curl up in a fetal position due to the cognitive dissonance

 

[KarenRei]

Or Mars.

Maybe ”Gentrify Mordor” is just another way to say “Occupy Mars”.

If there's a planet in the solar system that would best be represented by Mordor...

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

If the Chanos rumor turns out to be true, what's the best part of it?

a. Chanos is broke
b. The news could start a massive short covering and trigger a historic squeeze
c. We could all make a LOT of money
d. We never have to see that SOB's ugly mug on TV again

I'm going with d!

 

[Artful Dodger]

NG peakers aren't the enemy. NG baseload is. NG is fine as a peaker; there's no need to let perfect be the enemy of good. Peakers run ~5% of the time. They're not an issue.

The trouble with NG is leaking pipelines. Fugitive emissions of CH4/methane have nearly as much global warming potential as all the NG burned properly inside plants.

Since CH4 has 36x the GWP of CO2 over 100 yrs, it only takes a 2.9% leakage rate from wellhead to furnace to completely negate the advantage of NG over coal.

But you can't run NG peaker plants without that NG drilling and pipeline infrastructure. So sorry, your're wrong: NG Peaker plants are part of the problem, and they have to go.

More here: "New Natural Gas Plants Can “Lock In” High Emissions for Decades"

Canada Is Replacing Coal With Natural Gas — And That’s A Huge Problem | The Narwhal

GE disagrees on the threat that battery storage poses to NG peaker plants:

Energy Storage Poses a Growing Threat to Peaker Plants

 

[ynhnx]

@TeslaTested is claiming on twitter this confirms Jim Chanos has covered: Pete Clay on Twitter

Can anyone explain how this could confirm he's covered?

It doesn't. That info is based on the fund's 13Fs, which do not require the disclosure of short positions, only long ones

 

[Curt Renz]

Oh baby I love this.

"Chanos makes money once a decade"

Chamath Palihapitiya on Elon Musk and Tesla

Let's see if Wapner interviews his idol Chanos tomorrow on CNBC to learn if there is any truth behind this evening's rumor of short covering.