Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbih]

I give it a 50% chance Telsa will bring the Cybertruck design language to smaller cars. Plus the cost savings! $25,000 Cybercar?

 

[azaz]

that remains to be seen. Once it's on the market and Tesla forces everyone else to make similarly crazy looking trucks because the specs are unbeatable at that price, they will just be advertising for Tesla.

The Ford Mach E proves that out...

I agree, my point is when you make something so crazy you know there is some unpredictability with the demand. you aren't just doing a safe thing and going for an easy market share grab.
it is def possible is'll end up selling F150 numbers, it's also possible it won't. It's not like the 3/Y where they didnt just re-invent the design of small sedans/suvs.

 

[azaz]

I give it a 50% chance Telsa will bring the Cybertruck design language to smaller cars. Plus the cost savings! $25,000 Cybercar?

A cyber sub brand makes a lot of sense....but lets not get ahead of ourselves. lets see what issues arise with mass manufacturing cars made out of a totally new material now. The X,3 were both thought of as easy to make before they actually made them and had to revise them.

 

[canoemore]

I don't see the 146k reservation tally as that great. For context, the Model 3 was at 276k pre-orders after 2 days. The Cybertruck isn't quite at 2 days yet but is at 146k through 1.7 days, so it likely to be around 160k at that point. So it's on track for about 60% as many reservations.

Given that the pickup niche is 2-3x that of a compact sedan, I think 500 - 700k reservation would indicate similar popularity, but then since the downpayment is much smaller now, I think roughly 1 million reservations at this point would indicate similar reception. So arguably reception is 15% as good as the Model 3.

I dunno. The Model 3 looked like a pretty normal sedan. Sure, there was no grill and a giant tablet inside, but compared to the truck it was a pretty minor departure from traditional car design. I think it'll take a bit more time for people to digest the Cybertruck, but as many here can attest, the longer you spend looking at it, when you look back at even the most badass of traditional trucks (e.g. Ford Raptor, etc.) they start to seem like they lack something. And although most of the media coverage is negative and even mocking, all those stories and tweets have a photo of the truck featured front and center. I think that'll do the trick in the medium to long run.

Anyhow, even if I'm wrong about the aesthetics growing on people, whether or not the Cybertruck becomes as wildly popular as the Model 3 may not matter too much from a dollars and cents perspective. It doesn't sound like they're going to need to invest in a nearly as much long-lead time, high-capex, complex machinery as they did for Model 3 to bang this thing together. So if the reservation rate is more anemic than the Model 3 it may still be plenty to support investment in production capacity coming online in 2022.

I know for a fact there are a lot of other members here who can opine on this with more authority (perhaps yourself included), but at a glance this reservation rate seems pretty okay to me.

 

[Lessmog]

I think it might be a good idea to make those high sides of the vault either removable or able to be folded into the vault. Not only for what Lucky_Man describes above but also for aestectic purposes... I've seen some pictures showing the CyberTruck with a more conventional looking bed and I must admit, it does look "better." Even certain people from Georgia would probably find it more acceptable.

Disagree. That would compromise structural strength. MAYBE let the sides fold down for loading. Rigidity needs those sides and the louvre closed, in my mechanically simple mind.

 

[ZeApelido]

I give it a 50% chance Telsa will bring the Cybertruck design language to smaller cars. Plus the cost savings! $25,000 Cybercar?

Yeah, if Tesla scales this design concept and battery costs into a small hatchback, how low could they price it with 20% margins?

 

[Johnny Ma]

What prices were listed for the model 3 at unveil? Was it just the promised 35k at unveil?

146k with % breakdown by config (and hence price) BEFORE FSD and other options makes me think 146k is a huge number of preorders.

 

[Navin]

What prices were listed for the model 3 at unveil? Was it just the promised 35k at unveil?

146k with % breakdown by config (and hence price) BEFORE FSD and other options makes me think 146k is a huge number of preorders.

Agreed. There is not a single Wall Street analyst who have truck in their number forecasts! Not a single. This growing number will have to weigh into their bs at some point.

 

[Fact Checking]

Given that the pickup niche is 2-3x that of a compact sedan, I think 500 - 700k reservation would indicate similar popularity (2-3x * 276k), but then the downpayment is much smaller now.

Apples to oranges comparison.

Notable differences between Model 3 preorders and Cybertruck preorders:

• Sedans are globally much more popular than in the U.S.: the 2nd and 3rd highest sold models in the world are sedans, 1.7 times the sales of the 1st place F-150.
• The Model 3 was a $35,000 car, while Cybertruck is a $40,000 truck. Addressable market and demand drops about 10% for this $5k price increase alone.
• The Model 3 appealed to a large group of environmentally conscious car buyers who had Priuses and Leafs (both of them close in size to the Model 3) but couldn't afford a Model S/X. The pickup truck market has no equivalent "ready to pull the trigger" customers, initial conversion will take longer.

I find these ~150k preorders amazing - much higher than I expected.

 

[TradingInvest]

I don't see the 146k reservation tally as that great. For context, the Model 3 was at 276k pre-orders after 2 days. The Cybertruck isn't quite at 2 days yet but is at 146k through 1.7 days, so it likely to be around 160k at that point. So it's on track for about 60% as many reservations despite being in a much larger niche with a much smaller down payment.

Given that the pickup niche is 2-3x that of a compact sedan, I think 500 - 700k reservation would indicate similar popularity (2-3x * 276k), but then the downpayment is much smaller now. Since $100 is much easier to part with, I think roughly 1 million reservations at this point would indicate similar reception. So arguably reception is only 15% as good as the Model 3.

I think Tesla could improve that with some moderate changes to the design. Some tweaks to the rear flanks and adding side windows into the vault (to give it more of a pickup silhouette without actually having one) could do a lot to break up the very blunt rear half in the side profile.

When iPhone started selling, it took less than 1% of phone market. Tesla's truck demand will go through the S curve.

 

[jerry33]

I don't see the 146k reservation tally as that great. For context, the Model 3 was at 276k pre-orders after 2 days. The Cybertruck isn't quite at 2 days yet but is at 146k through 1.7 days, so it likely to be around 160k at that point. So it's on track for about 60% as many reservations despite being in a much larger niche with a much smaller down payment.

Given that the pickup niche is 2-3x that of a compact sedan, I think 500 - 700k reservation would indicate similar popularity (2-3x * 276k), but then the downpayment is much smaller now. Since $100 is much easier to part with, I think roughly 1 million reservations at this point would indicate similar reception. So arguably reception is only 15% as good as the Model 3.

That's only in the U.S. where pickups are 2-3X of a compact sedan. Pickups are far less popular in Europe (the 146K includes Europe, but not China which has it's own reservation system). So it's not an apples to apples comparison.

 

[sparcs]

I agree, my point is when you make something so crazy you know there is some unpredictability with the demand. you aren't just doing a safe thing and going for an easy market share grab.
it is def possible is'll end up selling F150 numbers, it's also possible it won't. It's not like the 3/Y where they didnt just re-invent the design of small sedans/suvs.

Tesla is basically starting over in a new market like they did with the Model 3. Blazing new ground that everyone is saying is impossible. This time around, it's far easier to take that risk when you will have three factories around the world by 2021 pumping out the safer vehicles like the 3/Y. Model 3 went from a bet the farm proposition to a cash cow.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not sure how anyone could be disappointed with that the 150k orders. Even if the truck was more on the normal side.....the consumer base was always going to be tougher to break into. A good chunk actively hate or have a bias against EVs or are just uninformed of the benefits. The fact that the truck is over 100k is amazing to me.....but I guess I'm easily amazed

 

[Stretch2727]

I don't see the 146k reservation tally as that great. For context, the Model 3 was at 276k pre-orders after 2 days. The Cybertruck isn't quite at 2 days yet but is at 146k through 1.7 days, so it likely to be around 160k at that point. So it's on track for about 60% as many reservations despite being in a much larger niche with a much smaller down payment.

Given that the pickup niche is 2-3x that of a compact sedan, I think 500 - 700k reservation would indicate similar popularity (2-3x * 276k), but then the downpayment is much smaller now. Since $100 is much easier to part with, I think roughly 1 million reservations at this point would indicate similar reception. So arguably reception is only 15% as good as the Model 3.

Also have to consider the demand for a vehicle this size is primarily in North America. Model 3 and sedans have a lot of appeal in EU. I cannot even imagine driving this thing in EU tight roads and parking.

My hope is Tesla can tool this thing for 100K annual demand relatively inexpensively and see where it goes. I think it will be a hit but it is going to hard to judge given the polarization.

 

[Rarity]

Do pickups have a large market in Norway?

 

[Beltsbear]

Are you a truck person? I drove a Ford F150 from Lowes and it was just terrible. The body on frame design makes it feel like it's falling apart no matter how small the speed bump.

Many ford trucks have live rear axles. Ram trucks have had independent rear suspension for eight years or more and tend to drive much better. Now others say the quality of Ram is lower but not my experience. Anyhow I will be replacing my truck with the $39k cyber. Ordered within first minute or two.

 

[jerry33]

Yeah, if Tesla scales this design concept and battery costs into a small hatchback, how low could they price it with 20% margins?

I'll vote $15K. Let's see if in the following years I'm correct

 

[Remus]

I don't see the 146k reservation tally as that great. For context, the Model 3 was at 276k pre-orders after 2 days. The Cybertruck isn't quite at 2 days yet but is at 146k through 1.7 days, so it likely to be around 160k at that point. So it's on track for about 60% as many reservations despite being in a much larger niche with a much smaller down payment.

Given that the pickup niche is 2-3x that of a compact sedan, I think 500 - 700k reservation would indicate similar popularity (2-3x * 276k), but then the downpayment is much smaller now. Since $100 is much easier to part with, I think roughly 1 million reservations at this point would indicate similar reception. So arguably reception is only 15% as good as the Model 3.

I think Tesla could improve that with some moderate changes to the design. Some tweaks to the rear flanks and adding side windows into the vault (to give it more of a pickup silhouette without actually having one) could do a lot to break up the very blunt rear half in the side profile.

This is after people learned from previous experience that pre-orderring does not gives you any advantage.

And more than 40% aiming for the highest trim, 70k bucks. How many model 3 preorders aimed for 35k variant?

Did model 3 stopped selling after they delivered so many?

 

[dandurston]

this isn't meant to sell F150 numbers. the design choices make that clear.

The design isn't weird just to be weird, but rather a case of form follows function. The cybertruck offers a lot of great functionality that traditional pickups don't and would sell in F150 numbers if the aesthetics weren't so polarizing. I can tolerate it, except that I wouldn't want to be inundated with people sharing their own strong opinions about it everytime I drive it somewhere. It's a magnet for attention - some good, some bad - and a lot of people don't want that even if they like the design (e.g. I have no problem with the function of the Falcon doors, but would prefer to skip the showiness).

For the sake of both Tesla and the planet, we all should want it to sell well. We shouldn't be like "oh it's fine if it doesn't sell well because obviously they decided to make it weird". Rather, we should say "Certainly think outside the box to reinvent the truck, but don't go beyond that to make it unnecessarily weird". In other words, we should ask what are the reasons for it's design, and how to do we preserve that, while making it widely appealing so it has the greatest benefit towards Tesla's mission.

 

[Darkfox021]