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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I was strong believer in 'no-SW-locked SR pack" .. but ... it really just boils down to the cost of MR.
At the moment that Tesla can afford to sell a "locked MR" as SR for 35k (i.e. at low but positive profits) it will be losing money if they do not do that.
A HW SR will stay SR for the rest of its existence and no future revenue for Tesla.
And most of "locked-MR sold as SR" will be upgraded to MR sooner or later, if not before it happens at CPO sell.
Show me one guy that will pay 35k for a SR and will not be ready to pay 2k for unlocking to MR a few months or a year later.
A close encounter with "0-miles-left, charge now" changes minds fast.
This is the art of selling a $35k car, and earning $37k for most of them.
The sole criteria is the production cost of MR. It must be low enough that tesla can afford to "deffer those 2k/SR revenue"
And of course badges! An unlocked SR needs a new badge.
At the moment that Tesla can afford to sell a "locked MR" as SR for 35k (i.e. at low but positive profits) it will be losing money if they do not do that.
A HW SR will stay SR for the rest of its existence and no future revenue for Tesla.
And most of "locked-MR sold as SR" will be upgraded to MR sooner or later, if not before it happens at CPO sell.
Show me one guy that will pay 35k for a SR and will not be ready to pay 2k for unlocking to MR a few months or a year later.
A close encounter with "0-miles-left, charge now" changes minds fast.
This is the art of selling a $35k car, and earning $37k for most of them.
The sole criteria is the production cost of MR. It must be low enough that tesla can afford to "deffer those 2k/SR revenue"
And of course badges! An unlocked SR needs a new badge.
Yes, wording can vary.
Normally when referring to "Gross Margin" or "Margin" they refer to direct revenue for vehicle sales less direct expenses which normally include marginal SG&A but not depreciation or amortization. As a general rule TSLA will report slightly higher Gross Margin than competitors because their sales revenue is retail, but will have slower income recognition for the same reason, and slightly higher SG&A, again because of direct sales.
Nearly all analysts fail to understand the implications of the direct sales model, consequently not understanding what WIP and inventory mean for TSLA vs all others.
Either way GM of >20% is an enviable place, ordinarily reached by only highly prized low volume manufacturers such as Ferrari and Porsche, both of which have many parts and other technology from corporate partners/parents which reduce all costs including capex. Almost unheard of vertical integration at TSLA also causes higher capex and higher GM, when at stable volumes. Obviously TSLA growth rates are also unprecedented, so tend to overstate current expenses and capex both. To the extent of Superchargers, stores, service vehicles etc being put in service faster than they would be in a steady state GM also is reduced on a current basis.
All the moving parts cannot easily be reconciled to any steady state because there is no way to know what a steady state would be for them. The gigantic unheralded story (by both bulls and bears) is that the combination of OTA updates, growing reliance on mobile service and fault anticipation plus rapidly improving manufacturing and design are yielding a virtuous cycle that is yielding increasing GM's in all TSLA products. Their accounting conventions are, IMHO, mostly understating their progress. At the present time we can estimate some of these items but there is not enough data or experience to do so accurately.
Overall in the US, roughly a third of MSRP goes to support dealer distribution systems. What is TSLA total distribution costs on a comparative basis? Truthfully we do not know. We do know advertising costs are nearly zero for TSLA vs ~7-10% for competitors. Nearly all of that goes to increased GM's for TSLA.
Reports of deliveries Model 3 in Belgium & Netherlands today.
The ship arrived yesterday..
edit: reported 200 deliveries today
The ship arrived yesterday..
edit: reported 200 deliveries today
Shorts have devoured us with usual MMD. Looks like that everybody are buying now during ex MMD
True, then add that US MSRP is rarely the actual purchase price because of dealer negotiations, added "trash and trinkets" etc. I have purchased new vehicles in ten countries. The US is the only one in which I could not know my actual sales price prior to negotiation. Huge exception: Tesla. Only Tesla. We complain about the sales process with Tesla but it is far batter than any other vehicle purchasing experience in the US. I say that despite my complaints about the Model 3 purchase process.The US doesn't use VAT, but "sales tax", which is different. Part of the problem - and the reason that prices don't include sales taxes - is that it'd be far harder. US sales taxes vary from state to state, county to county, and even city to city. So, I mean, how do you advertise a price inclusive in tax when you don't know what the actual tax will be in any specific viewer's market?
It's not a consumer protection thing, it's a "US is a patchwork mess" thing
sweter
Member
Lots of bulls here saying "Tesla is (and will be for long) production constrained, not demand constrained."
Sure. But it could be argued that the time to lower prices is when production is fully ramped and all car versions are on the market. If SR is going to be barely profitable, wouldn't it be nice to offset this with higher margin more expensive cars? Buck up the truck in advance, so to speak? Would that help accelerate the SR?
Anyway, I'm 100% confident that Elon & Tesla know what they're doing.
To introduce non-PUP interior at least the following would have to change:
- no heated seats
- no power seats
- textile seats
- no glass roof
- no premium audio system
- removed 2 USB ports
These changes may affect the GA line a lot (less / different wirings). I don't think they will introduce that before PUP SR, too many variables to change.
Do we know if any Norwegians got estimated delivery dates? Belgians and Dutch have been getting text messages about ETA's for the last 2 weeks. I've now just learnt about ETA's in Germany for cars on the second ship. But haven't seen any info at all coming from Norway.. (not saying there isn't).
Imagine how impressive this would be if it were $282.95.I was waiting for that day!
Model 3 Guy @Model3Guy
Tesla up 2.3% on the day Jonas issues his price target cut. What does this mean? Adam Jonas is irreverent.
10:37 AM - 5 Feb 2019
anthonyj
Stonks
Amazon is bringing down the marketTurned some of my calls into a spread this morning... if this price keeps going down, maybe I'll cover that spread for a quick profit
Is there anything in particular driving this decline, or is this just a typical MMD?
Yeay, that worked out well I had bought two calls with the money from my spread.... sold one of the calls to pay for covering my spread.... net result: 1 free call. Thank you, MMD! Will re-spread when the stock recovers.
I had bought two calls with the money from my spread.... sold one of the calls to pay for covering my spread.... net result: 1 free call. Thank you, MMD! Will re-spread when the stock recovers.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Not especially. NASDAQ-100 down overall. Here's today's big mover:
EA
Electronic Arts Inc. $ 79.265 13.255▼ 14.33%
The trading plan can basically be anything that is algorithmically valid*. Maybe her plan is just "exercise and sell 1700/month on the first wednesday" or something. I agree it seems silly, but it might have been set in stone with the expectation that the price would be much higher by now.
*: It can even depend on other stocks: "exercise and sell blah blah if General Motors declares a declining profit".
Glovis Captain out of port, en route to Bremerhaven, Germany (probably no Teslas left on board, although I don't know that for sure).
Glovis Cosmos is only a few days out to replace it
Glovis Cosmos is only a few days out to replace it
Employee apparently is telling customers that Elon himself called yesterday with the message to deliver 150 cars today. They were totally unprepared for it which is why they are manning the phones trying to reach as many customers as possible to hear if they have insurance etc lined up. One guy who had to decline because he is flying tonight got a second call at the airport if he really isn't able to make it. So it seems plausible. But on the other hand : it's a story from Tesla employees so anything could be true or not. Witness : some are saying 150, some 200 and another one told a customer only performance cars are on this boat while there is at least one confirmed delivery of a non-performance tonight as well. So...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think mainly the state of the union where Trump sounded hawkish on China trade deal.
What is independently confirmed is that we are seeing many tag registrations for Model 3 in the Dutch database arriving at this very moment.
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