Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

Also note the latest fad in the U.S. to manage the share price: stock buyback programs financed by ... corporate debt. I'm not kidding you.

I understand and mostly agree, but it actually can make sense at times. There is exactly one entity that can trade in stock while holding material non-public information, and that is the company itself. If the board is convinced that the stock is significantly undervalued by the market, borrowing to buy back stock might give a great return to the shareholders. Of course you're right, 99% of the time that's not what the board is thinking, it's more like "I have to keep borrowing or I can't prop up the stock price (or keep paying the dividend)". There are also companies that sell down assets to buy back stock or issue unreasonable high dividends. Some investors love them. AMZA, for example. 12% dividend yield, but stock price and net assets have declined by about 20% per year for the last few years. Owning it is like a negative rate annuity.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Glovis Captain out of port, en route to Bremerhaven, Germany (probably no Teslas left on board, although I don't know that for sure).

Glovis Cosmos is only a few days out to replace it

Why no Teslas on board? They need Teslas in Germany too, and transport by ship is cheapest.

 

[EVNow]

Yeay, that worked out well I had bought two calls with the money from my spread.... sold one of the calls to pay for covering my spread.... net result: 1 free call. Thank you, MMD! Will re-spread when the stock recovers.

I kept lowering my limits as the SP went down from 319 - but in the end managed to not buy anything ! I did roll some of the calls today, but at higher prices …

BTW, Nasdaq is jittery because of the SOTU speech yesterday. It can be an up & down day today. So, we may revisit 316/317. BTW, there was strong support at 316. At one point 77k shares exchanged hands when the SP touched 316.

ps : Oh well, there we go down again.

 

[lklundin]

The US doesn't use VAT, but "sales tax", which is different. Part of the problem - and the reason that prices don't include sales taxes - is that it'd be far harder. US sales taxes vary from state to state, county to county, and even city to city. So, I mean, how do you advertise a price inclusive in tax when you don't know what the actual tax will be in any specific viewer's market?

It's not a consumer protection thing, it's a "US is a patchwork mess" thing

Thanks. When I wrote 'retail store' I meant the brick-and-mortar kind, that (at least until a few years ago) does not need to display the price incl. the sales tax collected in its own jurisdistion. This was to argue that the typical US consumer is not as used to transparent pricing as the the typical EU consumer.

 

[KarenRei]

Why no Teslas on board? They need Teslas in Germany too, and transport by ship is cheapest.

We were told that about 2000 were picked up in CA, and they offloaded about 2000. Although it might have just been 2k Model 3s picked up. But I doubt they'd make such a small stop, so close to where they just dropped off vehicles. I could picture that with Norway, but not Germany.

 

[ggr]

Turned some of my calls into a spread this morning... if this price keeps going down, maybe I'll cover that spread for a quick profit

Is there anything in particular driving this decline, or is this just a typical MMD?

The shape of the chart is exactly mimicking the Nasdaq. I don't think this one is actually because of shorting, which is the usual MMD cause.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

People are already ranting and raving about how awesome the Model 3 is. Now people are talking about how it is not only awesome, but also cheaper. In a way, that's a form of marketing.

 

[jbcarioca]

People are already ranting and raving about how awesome the Model 3 is. Now people are talking about how it is not only awesome, but also cheaper. In a way, that's a form of marketing.

One thing never changes: The best marketing is always Word of Mouth (WOM). OK, more like, Word of Tweet (WOT)

 

[gora321]

ValueAnalyst‏ @ValueAnalyst1
$GM doesn't expect to be profitable on electric vehicles until "early next decade," while $TSLA has been profitable for two quarters.

7:44 AM - 6 Feb 2019

 

[humbaba]

Why GM is laying off more workers amid healthy profits

From the comments:

Jak3! wrote:
Why would anyone buy a GM vehicle over a Tesla?​

They want to have the car in their garage the same calendar year they pay the manufacturer for it?

Tesla FUD is omnipresent. What bugs me the most is the +77 rating, when the lie is so exaggerated.

 

[gora321]

I remember!

Earl of Frunkpuppy on Twitter

 

[gora321]

Yuge Big Bur!‏ @VuryFurryBur
HA!!! MODEL 3 IS DOOOOOOMED!!! TESLA IS DESPARATE! Prices are NEVER EVER EVER reduced on SUCCESSFUL CARS!!!! $TSLA $TSLAQ

7:23 AM - 6 Feb 2019

 

[Curt Renz]

Money manager Tepper started a new anti-Tesla Twitter thread and won't relent: Mark Tepper on Twitter

Please feel free to join the Twitter conversation.

On Monday a new CNBC panelist was money manager Mark Tepper who asserted that test drives for Models S & X are down 50% year over year and was the reason he advised selling TSLA. After ignoring initial Twitter requests for his test drive source, today he finally admitted who it was directly to his source: Jay Van Sciver on Twitter

It appears that the TSLAQ short community now has an inside man planted as a regular panelist on CNBC's Fast Money with no demands from host Melissa Lee for full disclosure of his positions or sources.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I was strong believer in 'no-SW-locked SR pack" .. but ... it really just boils down to the cost of MR.

At the moment that Tesla can afford to sell a "locked MR" as SR for 35k (i.e. at low but positive profits) it will be losing money if they do not do that.
A HW SR will stay SR for the rest of its existence and no future revenue for Tesla.
And most of "locked-MR sold as SR" will be upgraded to MR sooner or later, if not before it happens at CPO sell.

Show me one guy that will pay 35k for a SR and will not be ready to pay 2k for unlocking to MR a few months or a year later.
A close encounter with "0-miles-left, charge now" changes minds fast.

This is the art of selling a $35k car, and earning $37k for most of them.
The sole criteria is the production cost of MR. It must be low enough that tesla can afford to "deffer those 2k/SR revenue"

And of course badges! An unlocked SR needs a new badge.

Oh come on...that was WAY too easy. lol

Dan

 

[gora321]

Never forget someone who helped you when it was the hardest!

https://electrek.co/2019/02/06/tesla-mercedes-benz-holding-talks-collaboration-daimler-ceo/

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Since you just joined on Friday - can you tell us what brought you here ? Are you a TSLA investor or are you a short ?

I'm long TSLA but I love poking holes in lame swiss cheese arguments.

 

[MartinAustin]

I think TSLA will end the day more or less unchanged.

So the Performance Model 3 is now $60,900. If you add all the options to get the price as high as possible, it is $69,400. (First time the Model 3 has been under $70K fully optioned.)

Meanwhile the base Model S is $86,500. That gap is over $17K. There is literally no Tesla vehicle on sale between $69,400 and $86,500.

IMO this means there is room for the Model S to fall more, if and when a 2170-based battery option is introduced... or there is room for a more expensive Model 3 - if and when they introduce a more outrageous performance option. Remember Model S?

Model S $69K
Model S Performance $89K
Model S Performance Plus $99K
Model S P85D w/ Insane Mode $120K (fell to $105K)
Model S P90D w/ Ludicrous Mode $119K
Model S P100D w/ Ludicrous Plus $134K (still $132K today)

Each time the top of the line car got more expensive.

P85D was introduced 28 months after the first Model S was delivered.

We are currently 19 months after the first Model 3 delivery.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Because you’re Elon Musk and your sole purpose in life is to accelerate sustainable transportation, not gouge people and keep your EVs unaffordable. That’s why.

The lower prices get, the more people start to think about switching to an EV. Thinking becomes figuring out at what price it’s possible m. Figuring leads to budgeting and discovering true costs of ownership. And that leads to buying.

If you’re confused about the price reduction, its timing or anything else, you don’t understand Elon Musk or Tesla’s mission. You just don’t get it nor do you understand your fellow human and what will motivate them to change.

BS. You don't need to reduce the price now. You can delay that and achieve the same result. Because if they are still production limited, those people will be waiting to buy an EV either way.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

I am curious as to the true cost savings of PUP vs. non-PUP. When Tesla cuts out PUP, how much will they truly save? I get the feeling it's $4000 margin, $1000 cost.

This seems to be a big issue in getting to $35 k.

Tesla better hope they can get to that point profitably or else its embarrassing, and could end up like this:

Tesla $35k SR:

Black Only.

Options:

Mobile charger, $500
Passenger's seat, $1000
Tablet, $1500

 

[EVMeister]

I can't tell if this guy is just parodying a moron (Mark Spiegel) or...