Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

That will take months, possibly years.

But this is not what I was talking about: I was talking about the financial effects of feature-complete FSD, to which hundreds of millions of dollars of profits and deferred revenue are tied.

Most of this revenue and profits can be recognized the feature is delivered to customers. It doesn't have to be perfect nor hands-free - plain level 2 or 3 "driver assistance" feature quality is enough to recognize the income for all but the earliest FSD customers.

Recognizing this revenue in Q1 makes S&P 500 inclusion a 90% probability event ...

Got it...and totally agree. I just know how all the rumors and expectations get started.
Bring it on!!

Dan

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

dang this FSD progress... I have an AP1 MCU1 S85D. I've had it 4 years and love it...and part of me REALLY wants a model 3 performance (nice and small) with the new tech...but I want to 'get my moneysworth' out of my model S...and yet as FSD becomes more real, will it drastically slash the resale value of my S....arghhh.

 

[Tslynk67]

Shortzes be like:

The brain sucker!

Love that film, so over-the-top

 

[Tslynk67]

dang this FSD progress... I have an AP1 MCU1 S85D. I've had it 4 years and love it...and part of me REALLY wants a model 3 performance (nice and small) with the new tech...but I want to 'get my moneysworth' out of my model S...and yet as FSD becomes more real, will it drastically slash the resale value of my S....arghhh.

An S85D is like holding puts at $350, get out now while you'll still get a few $$ for them, get a M3P 2022 option instead, plenty of time-value on the firmware updates.

 

[RobPet]

Presentor of various car related material is apparently shooting a video of deliveries of M3 in Amsterdam.
You can see the RCC Europe being unloaded here: Roland Tameling on Instagram: “Het lossen is volop aan de gang! @teslamotors #Model3 delivery in #Amsterdam. @ad_nl #HugeCarGuy”

Roughly translated he's saying: "The sun is rising, the RCC Europe is being unloaded in an 'watery flow'. My camera assistant and I are recording this impressive moment. The future owners will be here soon to take delivery. He's wondering what they will think of this process as it is a very efficient process for Tesla, but a lot different than 'shows' at car dealers with flowers and pretty lights for a €49.000+ car. Just a direct pickup at a dock in Amsterdam. You should know this when picking up a Tesla at this time, but he's still curious what the owners think of it. To be continued'.

A second video just showed up as well. Mostly about check-in process, customers go in and out within 10 min after receiving their papers (if it all checks out) and go and collect their car on the lot. Could be seen as impersonal or is it just efficient?

Roland Tameling on Instagram: “Wel koffie, geen bloemetje. Zo ontvangen aanstaande eigenaren de papieren en code van hun nieuwe @teslamotors #Model3. Onpersoonlijk,…”

Main bottleneck is apparently now the preparation of cars after unloading which anecdotally has a throughput of 600 cars/day. Hopefully they will be able to increase the capacity. Still 10 days left and thousands to go
Still reading loads of good reports of how well the car the drives, feels and performs.

 

[NakedLong]

"Robotaxi level" FSD will indeed take months, possibly years.

But this is not what I was talking about: I was talking about the short-term financial effects of feature-complete FSD, to which hundreds of millions of dollars of profits and deferred revenue are tied.

Most of this revenue and profits can be recognized the feature is delivered to customers. It doesn't have to be perfect nor hands-free - plain level 2 or 3 "driver assistance" feature quality is enough to recognize the income for all but the earliest FSD customers.

Recognizing this revenue in Q1 makes S&P 500 inclusion a 90% probability event ...

(Not advice.)

I think the whole S&P inclusion point is much less important than people realise. If it is something like 3% - this is something we see every day in the Tesla stock.

 

[Runarbt]

Elon's latest tweet suggests it's more than just a video:

Elon Musk on Twitter
View attachment 490543​

This very much looks like the real deal - perhaps with a 'turn by turn acknowledgement' required from the driver, like Navigate on Autopilot was introduced?

If Tesla indeed releases FSD in Q4 then that is going to have ... absolutely insane impact on Q4 profits and margins. I still think they'll do that in Q1.

I'm still trying to be cautiously pessimistic, but it's getting harder with every passing day.

(Absolutely, utterly, maximally not advice: short squeeze peaks tend to be very sharp.)

To set things in perspective:

Tesla MCAP = 70 Billion USD ($400)
Waymo Bloomberg estimated value = was 175 Billion, adjusted down to 100 Billion USD (add $600)
Uber MCAP = 51 Billion USD (add $300 x2 is my initial valuation for robotaxi)
= $1600

Becaues: with FSD feature complete and working, even with hands on wheel - we should be able to add Waymo valuation, right?
And with Robotaxi active + "UBER mcap x multiples" - as Robotaxi is will actually make money, comapred to UBER loosing billions each Q. :-D

Then - we can consider GF3 and GF4 , battery day .. and re-evaluate. Toyota mcap is 223 billion USD.
Think Tesla by then should be able to at least match Toyota mcap + FSD + Robotaxi = 370 Billion is fair? = SP $2500 ?


How long will this take? Noone knows - my guess - a lot sooner than the most optimistic optimist.. except maybe 007 :-D

 

[willow_hiller]

I think the whole S&P inclusion point is much less important than people realise. If it is something like 3% - this is something we see every day in the Tesla stock.

I don't think we can rely on how other stocks responded to inclusion to determine how TSLA will jump.

How many shares will need to be bought by funds following the index, and who's going to sell them? I know I'm not selling for the next 5 years or so.

 

[Tslynk67]

VW fined $86m in Australia for emissions cheating

Volkswagen hit with record fine in Australia

 

[Tslynk67]

Futures now slightly green as opposed to a little red.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think the whole S&P inclusion point is much less important than people realise. If it is something like 3% - this is something we see every day in the Tesla stock.

When the Saudis bought a 4% stake in Tesla and bought ~7m shares, that coincided with a rising price from ~$260 to ~$360, in about ~2-3 months.

S&P 500 inclusion could result in the permanent purchase of 10m-30m TSLA shares, over a time period of just a few weeks.

I don't know what effect it's going to have, neither does anyone else - but that it's not going to be insignificant is a pretty safe guess IMHO.

(Not advice though.)

 

[ReflexFunds]

I think the whole S&P inclusion point is much less important than people realise. If it is something like 3% - this is something we see every day in the Tesla stock.

S&P inclusion is extremely important. More than anything else, this is what can take Tesla stock price on to the next level.

S&P inclusion likely means towards 20 million Tesla shares will be bought by passive funds. This alone is $8bn of purchases at current prices. It is very significant relative to the c.210 million Tesla share equivalents in issuance and held by Tesla longs (180 million real shares and ~30 million synthetic share equivalents created by Tesla shorts), particularly given 34 million of these shares are held by Elon.

This effective removal of 20 million shares from the market will significantly reduce the number of active investors required to value Tesla above a certain share price for Tesla to be able to achieve that share price. Many of Tesla's current investors likely truly believe in the Tesla story and have a current fair value of $500/600 plus. So the number of investors with a valuation close to the current share price is likely relatively low and passive S&P funds trying to purchase 20 million shares from these investors can push the share price past many valuation thresholds.

In addition to all this, last 12 month profitability and S&P membership is a significant seal of approval and possibly even a fund mandate requirement for many active investors to be able to purchase Tesla.
The vast majority of capital worldwide is invested in companies that are already profitable. So I think profitability on a last 12 months basis is a good catalyst to get new investors to start looking at the Tesla story and to move share price on to the next level. What Tesla really needs to move share price +50-100% from here is to start getting Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google and Facebook (together towards $5 trillion of invested equity) shareholders involved in Tesla. Amazon investors are possibly the easiest to get onboard given the early growth trajectories are similar (though Tesla is much faster and has much larger addressable markets) and that Amazon is also still prioritising growth over profits.

 

[NicoV]

Futures now slightly green as opposed to a little red.

And another ATH at 408.55 in premarket trading.

 

[lascavarian]

I would speculate the sneak peek will be display of virtualized stop signs on the screen. No stopping but a demonstration that they are recognized.

 

[EV Promoter]

Think Tesla by then should be able to at least match Toyota mcap + FSD + Robotaxi = 370 Billion is fair? = SP $2500 ?

This is adding a new dimension to the "Super Bulls only" thread
Grounding (a lot) antidote: a bit of technical analysis

 

[Singuy]

China registered 5,597 Tesla cars in the month of November.

Tesla Bucks China Car Slump as November Registrations Soar

 

[Fact Checking]

And another ATH at 408.55 in premarket trading.

$409.10 and rising so far ...

Edit: $409.45 new ATH
Edit #2: $409.75

 

[cyclingthealps]

"Zug verpasst" or missed the train.

So yesterday I imagined that all the Longs are already sitting on the train, waiting for it to leave the station. The conductor blew on his whistle and the doors closed. Somehow the train started to move but only very slowly.

What was weird in my imagination that I expected the Shorts to be on the Platform and see a complete Chaos. Screaming, trying to break open the train doors, pushing each other, throwing money at the Longs through the windows to get their seats.
But they were just sitting in the station hall eating their "Curry Wurst" and drinking their Coffee and looked completely calm and relaxed.

Premarket looks like somebody went down the station hall and told them the train is leaving

 

[dmckinstry]

$409.10 and rising so far ...

Edit: $409.45 new ATH

At this rate, we should see $420 by close on Monday. I hope it goes much higher before peaking.

 

[Tslynk67]

Ahhhh

Edit: whoops - I'm way behind the curve there, sorry!

In other news, I changed my avatar - Snufkin looking a bit festive...