So folks, what's better?
10x Jan 2021 $650 @ $14 per contract
2x Jan 2021 $420 @ $66
4x Jan 2021 $590 @ $34
10x Jan 2021 $650 @ $14 per contract
2x Jan 2021 $420 @ $66
4x Jan 2021 $590 @ $34
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
$406.59 now
Worth remembering that this time yesterday we a couple of bucks down in pre...
"Zug verpasst" or missed the train.
So yesterday I imagined that all the Longs are already sitting on the train, waiting for it to leave the station. The conductor blew on his whistle and the doors closed. Somehow the train started to move but only very slowly.
What was weird in my imagination that I expected the Shorts to be on the Platform and see a complete Chaos. Screaming, trying to break open the train doors, pushing each other, throwing money at the Longs through the windows to get their seats.
But they were just sitting in the station hall eating their "Curry Wurst" and drinking their Coffee and looked completely calm and relaxed.
Depends on perspective - take a step back and enjoy the big picture:
I agree that $3500 by 2023 isn't that far fetched. I recently posted this model based on these assumptions in the near-future quarterly financial projections thread, which projects ~6B$ yearly EBIT run rate by Q4'20, and ~8-9B$ yearly EBIT run rate by Q4'21. @EVNow also posted this model that projects the exact same ~6B yearly EBIT run rate by Q4'20. (Geniuses think alike
These models aren't even that outrageously bullish if you look at them more closely. Both of us are fairly conservative in Solar Roof ramp-up. Neither of us has any S EMI production in our model. And I don't have any Cybertruck production in my model in 2021 either.
Applying a 30x EBIT multiple to these numbers would put TSLA at around $1000 in just 1-2 years. And let me remind you that Amazon is sitting at an 80x EBIT multiple and is growing at a rate much slower than TSLA is. Tesla is looking like it might 2-3x their revenue in the next two years. That's more than a 50% YoY growth rate compared to Amazon's 24%.
So with continued growth from 2021 to 2023, significant FSD progress, and/or a higher EBIT multiple, $3500 in 2023 is optimistic, but definitely not delusional. Honestly, I often feel like some of my projections based on my financial models are more bullish than the supposedly delusional investors who are randomly throwing out numbers they heard from ARK. When I talk about a $10.000+ SP by 2030, I feel like many people are very skeptical about that, but if Tesla Network is successful, I think $10.000 is probably quite conservative based on the numbers.
I noticed that often when people are discussing their models in the stock they will not include chunks of the business like semi, or energy, or FSD, or CT. Even bullish analysts like Gali will make a whole bunch of somewhat conservative assumptions in their models. Even the bullish ARK put out a lower value of 6000 SP than what their current models are estimating. I would like to see more people try and predict FSD and energy contributions to the SP, rather than treating Tesla like just an auto company.
Why do people doubt MIC being delivered in the 100s when there is a whole parking lot full, and trucks carrying the cars are filmed by drones? @Fact Checking??
Note that the stock is at $404 with some people still doubting imminent MIC deliveries.
We're about to get a P&D report that's undoubtedly going to say how many cars were made at GF3, possibly say the current build rate, and likely mention the delivery start in early January.
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I know the term “short squeeze” is discouraged on this thread.....but you have to wonder
And just like that in the pre-market I finally have a ten bagger at $408. This is the only stock I’ve been able to hold onto for almost 7 years. I guess becoming a fanboi pays off.
Yes lots of cars are leaving GF3 for distribution centers across China. But I don’t think there’s any proof of a MIC Model 3 actually being delivered to a customer. Tesla only promised to begin deliveries by the 3rd week of January. Why wait? Who knows. Doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things, I reckon.
Agree. My totally unscientific model (and that's why I'm not sharing it) for up to 31/12/2029 (my planed retirement date) is a share price of 480 $. With two 5:1 splits in that timeframe. Now call me crazy. I can handle it.
JusRelax
Active Member
Sorry, I know you're all glued to the ticker like the World-Cup Final, but for the spirit of sharing...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
So now is where we all must employ restraint and patience. Elon said that even when it was "feature complete" it would not be perfect. It is going to be rough. It is not going to be ideal in all situations. It is not going going to be true level 5 self driving...yet. It will still have A LOT of learning and refining to do. We as bulls are notorious for reading higher expectations into these types of releases and then get disappointed when reality doesn't measure up to our perceptions. Now is the time to be supportive of the progress. We are the standard bearers for this new technology and must trust the process. People will be looking to us for our reactions. Yes, by all means share the problems with Tesla through bug reports and communications back to Tesla. However, screaming about it's initial inabilities on social media will not help the system learn and progress.Elon's latest tweet suggests it's more than just a video:
This very much looks like the real deal - perhaps with a 'turn by turn acknowledgement' required from the driver, like Navigate on Autopilot was introduced?
If Tesla indeed releases FSD in Q4 then that is going to have ... absolutely insane impact on Q4 profits and margins. I still think they'll do that in Q1.
I'm still trying to be cautiously pessimistic, but it's getting harder with every passing day.
(Absolutely, utterly, maximally not advice: short squeeze peaks tend to be very sharp.)
Just my $.02
Dan
Yeah it doesn't matter whether they deliver the ones they have made now or later - it might just be about accounting. But in my mind it makes sense to have delivered them to their employees to iron out any unknown issues before they start the full scale deliveries.
Shortzes be like:
I was always amazed by how many people didn't realize that that that film's promotion of xenophobic nationalism was satirical.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
"Robotaxi level" FSD will indeed take months, possibly years.
But this is not what I was talking about: I was talking about the short-term financial effects of feature-complete FSD, to which hundreds of millions of dollars of profits and deferred revenue are tied.
Most of this revenue and profits can be recognized the feature is delivered to customers. It doesn't have to be perfect nor hands-free - plain level 2 or 3 "driver assistance" feature quality is enough to recognize the income for all but the earliest FSD customers.
Recognizing this revenue in Q1 makes S&P 500 inclusion a 90% probability event ...
(Not advice.)
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