Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

Portfolio balancing is for retired people who need a balanced portfolio. Otherwise, it's for sissies!

Said somebody with only 30% TSLA

 

[StealthP3D]

As a general rule of thumb, on average volume, yes. However, TSLA didn't spike up on high volume and then close lower. The majority of technical analysts (that I know) wouldn't be calling a top after today's price action.

A top after today's action?


Of course, there will be many mini-tops on the way to 4 digits!

 

[StealthP3D]

Said somebody with only 30% TSLA

Ha-ha, well, it's near 35% but just wait a few months!

BTW, I've been retired since I was 37 (now 57) and I have very little income that doesn't originate from my brokerage account (mostly capital gains, some dividends). So, yeah, 35% is a pretty strong vote of confidence.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla’s IPO price was $17 which would mean it’s now worth about 2,500% of what it was, not 1,190%.

Yeah, they wrote that article when the SP was $372.30 but it took the article 5 days to clear their Bank.

Cheers!

 

[NakedLong]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, I mostly agree with your sentiments and I assume the second sentence should read "over-valuation".

The one reason I care about the short-term share price behavior is it helps tell me what is going on. Even though I don't intend to sell, my investment is substantial and the share price movements help me know where we are in this bull run. I think everyone should be prepared for the possibility of a sharp but quick trip to $390. It's not a high probability based on the buying strength I'm seeing but such a technical correction after the recent run would not be highly unusual. But the recovery from such a drop would be fast and furious so it's not something I would worry about.

Periodic small but sharp corrections are pretty much required behavior for a stock on a run like this to continue running higher. These corrections act as confirmation to new buyers that the existing shareholders are not about to dump their holdings into a market with no buyers and, this early in the run, such a correction will probably last less than two days. As the bull run matures they can be more gradual, drop further, and last a few weeks before the stock has shaken out all the weakest hands and can move higher. All of this is NORMAL and REQUIRED. Moves like this do not reflect on the health of the company or it's prospects, they are merely a reflection of the market participants.

And, no, I don't think it is wise for investors to try to work these expected moves because they are, by nature, largely chaotic and unpredictable in terms of exact timing and magnitude. I've seen time and time again how people who think they are being smart and protecting their capital from loss wind up missing out on most of the compound growth of the type of phenomena TSLA is in right now. The amount of money left on the table by people who sell early is shocking!

I suspect the majority of people here are holding less than 1000 shares which is really insignificant in terms of being able to substantially influence the price movements so I do not bring this up as some sort of way to help prop up the bull run for selfish reasons. It matters very little what small holders do (and most small holders of TSLA stock do not even read this forum). The fact of the matter is the beast has already been released and it's going to do what it's going to do regardless of what us small holders do. I just don't want to see the Tesla early adopters and shareholders leave a huge pile of potential profit on the table. And, yes, all of us who own a Tesla are still considered "early adopters" in my book. Everything is relative, of course, and some of you are earlier adopters than others (some by a number of years).

I came round to agreeing when I profit took 5% of my TSLA at 330. Obviously the time for swing trading the 250-350 range is long gone... TSLA is in a highly volatile period now. I suspect though, that TMC does have some impact on share price. There is no other place as good for information if you are willing to scroll though thousands of posts every day, for the occasional useful post containing something unknown or some new analysis. This info makes its way out into the world via various influential people. So while our combined shares don't do much, our information does.

 

[M3Rider]

They're up to $51 already? DAMN.

Probably still profitable, but that premium is pretty damn high right now. I am holding onto some Jan'22 $500s, but my cost basis is $22.

You'd double your money if the stock is $700 in Jan'22, but holding regular stock would also net you almost 75% ROI risk free (assuming you're long term bullish on the stock). Of course if it goes to $800 or more, those options pay off very nicely. It very well might go to $800 or even $1000 by then, but the risk-reward on them is so-so imo.

I said I'd buy 20k options and I did. I got too excited in a.m. on Fri and overpaid compared to the afternoon drop, so these are my results for today:

Compared to the results over the end-of-day price for Friday, it was like this(not my case):

So, it seems speculative bets earn more short term(when stock movement is in your favor). This is what I figured is the case sometimes.

That is why @Thekiwi was asking for $1,000 strikes and that is why TT007 and anthonij are making 20x on 690 strikes and probably some other penny calls.

The key here is your tolerance to risk. If you bet 5% of your holdings on something very unlikely and make 20x, good for you. If you bet 50% of what you have on this very unlikely outcome and lose it all, well, not so good, is it? Then you are TT007, who first lost millions and now is making 9x.

You can make out nicely if the stock movement is in your favor. Otherwise, you can lose everything, especially on short term bets, like many of us learnt on the way to $180.

Example I posted today, I made 3x in 5 days on 420 call I bought for lolz. If we were on the way to $180 (to help you relate, imagine there's a macro downtown or an earthquake leveling Fremont, or in Elon's scheme of things he decided that taking a hit in one quarter is not important in the grand plan), the same bet would cause me to lose 100% of what I paid.

So, personally, I feel more comfortable going long term and also this is not bet the farm. I used to do 90% shares in my trading account(after some burn going to $180), but just added calls to 30% of account value. I like to think of my calls as not necessarily beating stock performance (see what @FrankSG said), but as sort of insurance against super-breakouts, like FSD. So, if FSD happens, then I get to leverage and capture more upside.
If it doesn't happen, then maybe those calls perform as shares or similar. If something bad happens, then I get to lose more compared to shares, but not everything.

Shares survived the $180 downfall with no loss. Some of the short term calls got wiped out - 100% loss.

Keep in mind I learnt about options ~ last Oct and the experience is mine. I have not seen any long term shareholders share this detail with comparable clarity.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone know when battery investor day was to be expected?

All Elon has said is 'hopefully sometime in Q1'.

I think the timing is dependant upon the completion of the Battery Workshop at GF3.

Remember, Elon said "Show and Tell" during the Investor Q&A at the June 2019 AGM.

Cheers!

 

[wipster]

Volume was really high again today. A good sign!

I see what you did there...

 

[StealthP3D]

2) It’s understandable you missed the posts talking about a larger buyer accumulating vs shorts covering.

In the end, I don’t care. But I do think he’s wrong about these constant so called margin calls happening.

Well, Curt was speaking to the possibility of margin calls the next few days. I've never had one but they are a very real thing. I expect some good upside action going into the end of the year. If and when that happens, we still won't know how much of the buying was forced vs. anticipatory to preempt a margin call. And how much was new demand.

So what kind of upside move would have to happen for you to concede margin calls happened (and contributed to the strength of the move)? Because it's not public information - it's between brokers and clients. To be clear, my investment in TSLA is not predicated on margin calls or a short-squeeze. But it's pretty much an established fact that these things can and do cause more violent upside moves, particularly in exactly the kind of situation TSLA is in and has seen over the last several weeks. I would be shocked to learn that no TSLA related margin calls contributed to the buying over the last several weeks.

 

[kengchang]

Official short interest is due to release tomorrow 4PM EST

 

[Davidzhao365]

I said I'd buy 20k options and I did. I got too excited in a.m. on Fri and overpaid compared to the afternoon drop, so these are my results for today:
View attachment 492287

Compared to the results over the end-of-day price for Friday, it was like this(not my case):
View attachment 492288

So, it seems speculative bets earn more short term(when stock movement is in your favor). This is what I figured is the case sometimes.

That is why @Thekiwi was asking for $1,000 strikes and that is why TT007 and anthonij are making 20x on 690 strikes and probably some other penny calls.

The key here is your tolerance to risk. If you bet 5% of your holdings on something very unlikely and make 20x, good for you. If you bet 50% of what you have on this very unlikely outcome and lose it all, well, not so good, is it? Then you are TT007, who first lost millions and now is making 9x.

You can make out nicely if the stock movement is in your favor. Otherwise, you can lose everything, especially on short term bets, like many of us learnt on the way to $180.

Example I posted today, I made 3x in 5 days on 420 call I bought for lolz. If we were on the way to $180 (to help you relate, imagine there's a macro downtown or an earthquake leveling Fremont, or in Elon's scheme of things he decided that taking a hit in one quarter is not important in the grand plan), the same bet would cause me to lose 100% of what I paid.

So, personally, I feel more comfortable going long term and also this is not bet the farm. I used to do 90% shares in my trading account(after some burn going to $180), but just added calls to 30% of account value. I like to think of my calls as not necessarily beating stock performance (see what @FrankSG said), but as sort of insurance against super-breakouts, like FSD. So, if FSD happens, then I get to leverage and capture more upside.
If it doesn't happen, then maybe those calls perform as shares or similar. If something bad happens, then I get to lose more compared to shares, but not everything.

Shares survived the $180 downfall with no loss. Some of the short term calls got wiped out - 100% loss.

Keep in mind I learnt about options ~ last Oct and the experience is mine. I have not seen any long term shareholders share this detail with comparable clarity.

Did you try to sell and stop loss the calls during the downturn? Or it was super hard to find a taker? Thanks for sharing, super valuable. I am thinking to increase my call from 12% of my portfolio to 20%.

 

[Davidzhao365]

1. What will the competition look like?
No real competitor like Google or 50% 50% like Android and iPhone? (Android phone camps: Huawei, Samsung and etc.)

2. What will the gross margin look like when auto is at the peak?
Apple is about 38%. Google 65%.
Tesla seems more like half hardware and half software, so I guess it will be similar to Apple.

Anyone has some thought?

 

[Davidzhao365]

This is the

I said I'd buy 20k options and I did. I got too excited in a.m. on Fri and overpaid compared to the afternoon drop, so these are my results for today:
View attachment 492287

Compared to the results over the end-of-day price for Friday, it was like this(not my case):
View attachment 492288

So, it seems speculative bets earn more short term(when stock movement is in your favor). This is what I figured is the case sometimes.

That is why @Thekiwi was asking for $1,000 strikes and that is why TT007 and anthonij are making 20x on 690 strikes and probably some other penny calls.

The key here is your tolerance to risk. If you bet 5% of your holdings on something very unlikely and make 20x, good for you. If you bet 50% of what you have on this very unlikely outcome and lose it all, well, not so good, is it? Then you are TT007, who first lost millions and now is making 9x.

You can make out nicely if the stock movement is in your favor. Otherwise, you can lose everything, especially on short term bets, like many of us learnt on the way to $180.

Example I posted today, I made 3x in 5 days on 420 call I bought for lolz. If we were on the way to $180 (to help you relate, imagine there's a macro downtown or an earthquake leveling Fremont, or in Elon's scheme of things he decided that taking a hit in one quarter is not important in the grand plan), the same bet would cause me to lose 100% of what I paid.

So, personally, I feel more comfortable going long term and also this is not bet the farm. I used to do 90% shares in my trading account(after some burn going to $180), but just added calls to 30% of account value. I like to think of my calls as not necessarily beating stock performance (see what @FrankSG said), but as sort of insurance against super-breakouts, like FSD. So, if FSD happens, then I get to leverage and capture more upside.
If it doesn't happen, then maybe those calls perform as shares or similar. If something bad happens, then I get to lose more compared to shares, but not everything.

Shares survived the $180 downfall with no loss. Some of the short term calls got wiped out - 100% loss.

Keep in mind I learnt about options ~ last Oct and the experience is mine. I have not seen any long term shareholders share this detail with comparable clarity.

i found the post from TT007, he lost 5 million? I will make sure to learn his story carefully.
Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't think my track record (which is sadly not spotless at all) is a good basis to end an argument

Meh, don't sell yourself short. You got a 'ghost-writer' nod in yesterday's CNBC '420' piece:

"After the settlement, Tesla shares jumped 17.35% to $310.70, but the stock turned south again days later when Musk mocked the SEC in a tweet, calling the agency the "Shortseller Enrichment Commission."​

So there's that...

Cheers!

 

[hobbes]

Since inception Shorts have been trying earnestly to cut off Tesla’s ability to raise capital and expand. So what does this Chinese loan mean for Tesla as well as shorters?

Tesla gets new $1.4B loan from Chinese banks for Gigafactory 3 expansion: report

To me it means Tesla has tapped into a new line of capital, which happens to be backed by the Chinese government with such favorable rates that Elon/Tesla has decided to forgo Adam Jona’s plea to raise capital here in the US. It means that the banks here now have no further say in Tesla’s future as they have to compete with lower interest Chinese banks; it effectively means their manipulations when Tesla’s cash runs low will be mitigated by Tesla’s ability to raise capital with China any day of the week (except on Chinese New Year).

What this means for shorts is that their #1 argument that Tesla won’t be able to survive if their capital life line is cut off is basically moot. In the short term, I would really freak on this news if I was shorting Tesla. Not only do we have over $5 billion in cash, but we also have enough funds to expand the Shanghai plant to produce Model Y with the new cash infusion.

I´d like to agree but I am afraid the good conditions for the loadn are probably tied to Tesla investing the money in China, not the US. Anyone with better knowledge of China want to chime in?

 

[M3Rider]

Did you try to sell and stop loss the calls during the downturn? Or it was super hard to find a taker? Thanks for sharing, super valuable. I am thinking to increase my call from 12% of my portfolio to 20%.

I don't use stop loss, you can see many here state it is used by manipulators to rob you of your shares. And the manipulation in TSLA was (is?) rampant(oil+oem auto+Money Makers, who sell options) and SEC is useless.

The problem then is you don't know when the losses are going to stop. Is it 10% or 20% or 50%.
For options, after a 50% SP loss you lose 99%. So, not much point in selling them after that.

Maybe someone has 6th sense or other foresight on when to sell to stop losses, I don't. There's TA that is religion to some and BS to others.

The issue is that the whole downturn did not make any sense. OK, bad quarter due to bad logistics planning, nothing global, will correct next quarter. I could understand -10%, -20% and was willing to hold through that.

The -50% & half a year of downward pressure was a shock and, in my opinion, a manipulation. This was unpredictable, the same as earthquake.

So, we can plan for some possibilities, but our plans can be brutally disrupted by other players.

I do hope that the wind was recently knocked out from many of them, including some in the media, so conditions look a bit more favorable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I´d like to agree but I am afraid the good conditions for the loadn are probably tied to Tesla investing the money in China, not the US. Anyone with better knowledge of China want to chime in?

Doesn't matter. Money is fungible. Every dollar they borrow in China is a dollar they don't have to earn or borrow elsewhere. IE: all of Tesla's FCF dedicated to capital investments can go to GF4/Berlin or other new projects.

The bigger question is, does Tesla attempt to move some of its China profits out of the country, or are they better spent inside China on the next product cycle (ie: Model 2/GF5)? Huge returns available in China, giant market, outstanding growth potential.

Cheers!

 

[dww12]

If screenshots have not been posed of the traffic light visualizations yet SJG has them.
First Screenshots of Stop Sign and Traffic Light Visualization –– Whole Mars Catalog

 

[pz1975]

First they ignore you.
Then they laugh at you.
Then they f**k with you.
Then they make you f*n bankrupt.
They are Tesla.

 

[TradingInvest]

This is the


i found the post from TT007, he lost 5 million? I will make sure to learn his story carefully.
Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

1. Margin is dangerous. It may force you to sell when it's the best time to buy.
2. Options have pros and cons. Fully understand it before getting heavy on options. It's not free lunch.
3. The best time to buy Calls is at the bottom - assume you figured out how to tell where is the bottom. Another good time to buy Calls is a breakout after a nice setup. If you delay entry, your risk increases and you will pay several fold more than the other guy who bought at the correct point. If you find a short squeeze, buying Calls on it's way up still might work.

I like to do options using free money (dividend or trading profits). This way mentally it's easier to handle the ups and downs.