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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
In the DC area coming home from work today around 17:00, I caught the tail end of a segment on NPR where they mentioned that Tesla was likely going to fail to meet their yearly guidance.
Not sure where they got that from.
Not sure where they got that from.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Four fiddy Friday? Really expecting that if they somehow manage to hit middle of guidance range. But my gut says they’re going to just meet the 360k figure and roll as much as they can into Q1 to ensure a profitable quarter, which in turn will really help, if not cement, the case for S&P inclusion. In other words, a positive Q1’20 is more important than a blowout Q4’19.
Amazing how recently we were doing three fiddy memes.
Amazing how recently we were doing three fiddy memes.
space_s3x of course
I have been following this and love the form factor. I think it could do very well in Portland.
Returning to @FrankSG for a moment.
One topic he covered in some detail was solar roof including mentioning a few companies making some offering in that arena. There have been quite a few attempts, almost all fo which have failed.
IMHO, probably among the best is this one:
eMetal, eRoll, eFlex & Customization | Flisom
They're Swiss and have seemingly strong backing plus a diverse technical base including a former Tata Solar executive. Their approach si totally different than is Tesla in that they do not actually have a roof replacement product.
There are probably some dozens of examples, most fo which will probably fail.
The point of that introduction is that I agree with Frank that Tesla has stuck with the research and iterations and thus now seems to have the only competitive roof replacement in the world, certainly the only one that is system integrated with grid tie capacity through Powerwall. It does not require high technical ability to adopt this solution.
As investors have ignored this development year after year, ourselves included, we appear to have a working solution, albeit arriving in the infamous 'Elon time'. As investors the problem with this one is that it is the Model S of roofs. How can anybody imagine something that has never been done before?
My personal opinion is that any responsible calculation of the potential for this will result in growth that is unimaginable. After all, California now is mandating solar on new construction:
California Gives Final OK To Require Solar Panels On New Houses
Even with new single family homes declining:
https://www.sacbee.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article232979792.html
We still have a 100% certain market for ~90,000 houses that WILL have need for a roof and WILL have solar panels.
Since Tesla is the only viable roof-replacement vendor (my bad: that seems just like a monopoly, does it not?) one can safely assume Tesla could supply, say, half fo those were the capacity to exist. Certainly some large portion would also have storage and grid intertie so those would be easy Tesla sales.
Skip the financial implications for a moment. The problem is purely and solely production capacity and delivery ability. Tesla is already proven over and over that they perpetually are capacity constrained.
Someone with more perspective might actually judge how quickly Tesla can expand solar roof/ Powerwall integration.
South Australia has already proven that residential grid tie with distributed storage can yield substantial benefits to grid stability.
South Australia's Virtual Power Plant | Virtual Power Plant
Grown up this product line would dwarf automobiles. Further it is quite plausible that serving only locations which have solar power conducive climactic conditions would have an addressable market of 500,000 per annum worldwide. At $10,000 per roof that would be $US five billion (e.g. five thousand million US dollars). In any realistic view those are ridiculously low numbers. California alone WILL have roughly 20% of those units with considerably higher average cost.
My point is that we need to take Tesla Energy seriously this year! Remember that the peaker replacement market is already proven as is the solar/wind power stabilization market and there are more than 1200 peakers in operation in the US alone. Tesla will not even have the largest share of those markets but they will have very lucrative ones precisely because of the Tesla software advantage in grid services.
Next we have hundreds of thousands of islands, and untold thousands off locations for whom desalination plants have already proven to be practical with solar plus storage.
water-desalination-plant-africa-uses-tesla-batteries-solar-power
So, @FrankSG or others with time, inclination and skills, here's the pitch.
TE is devoted to Elon's mission and is executing already but is invisible to the investment community including us. We are, after all, The Tesla Motors Club. So, what will be do about that in 2020?
Remember, these opportunities dwarf cars. That is what JB told us all in 2010 and we all ignored him. Elon has repeated much of this and we all ignore him too.
Next thing we know he'll say something impossible and ridiculous like recovering first stage rockets. If nobody stops him he'll try to recapture fairings too.
I agree that Solar Roof could provide very large upside, but it does depend on ramp up of production, as well as ramp up of Tesla and non-Tesla roof installation teams.
For me personally, rather than assume they execute well from the get go on this thing they've never done before, I prefer to be conservative until shown a bit more evidence. If they announce during Q4 earnings that they're already at 1k / roofs per week, and they hit a couple of thousand before the end of 2020, that would make me really bullish, but for now I'm conservative and acknowledge that there is huge upside here.
I don't think this is correct though. I was unable to confirm Elon's claim that the worldwide addressable market is 100M per year. To me it seems like it would be more like ~25M per year max market of all roofs worldwide, which at an ASP of ~$35k would be less than the total vehicle sales market of ~80M currently with probably a similar ASP.
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I just scanned the 5PM NPR news which said "It's now looking like Electric carmaker, Tesla, is expected to hit the low end of it's 2019 delivery forecast."
Time 2:45 min in.
https://edge2.pod.npr.org/anon.npr-...2_1__c65390ca8a711791b4573b8824d0f5eb41b41d8d
Tesla has 365 business days in a year. But if you are right and the report is great some people with jan 3 call options will be unhappy. I have a friend...
As a rule of thumb, you typically issue good news before the market opens. The best time to issue bad news is Friday aftermarket so that you have the whole weekend for the market to digest the news. If I don't see the delivery results tomorrow morning, that doesn't give me a lot of confidence.
Yes. In the context of this, I have in the back of my mind Elon's "ignore the stock price" leaked e-mail to employees. I'm still optimistic, but I will be more seriously hedging if we don't get numbers tomorrow pre-market.
Fingers crossed.
Just saw the video on Twitter of the baby lamb/goat sitting in the driver's seat of a Tesla cruising down the interstate.
Is anybody else worried that stunts like this are going to derail Tesla's FSD plans? Isn't one of our big advantages the whole neural net thing where all the FSD cars learn from one another? What happens when regulators force a shutdown of FSD due to all the dumbasses out there acting like fools?
Here's the TSLAQ account for those interested:
KillingMyCareer on Twitter
Is anybody else worried that stunts like this are going to derail Tesla's FSD plans? Isn't one of our big advantages the whole neural net thing where all the FSD cars learn from one another? What happens when regulators force a shutdown of FSD due to all the dumbasses out there acting like fools?
Here's the TSLAQ account for those interested:
KillingMyCareer on Twitter
Why did this thread get moved into 2020? I thought there was a new thread for every year? What the hell @AudubonB ?!
new_sneakers
Member
@AudubonB recently clarified we were continuing here into the new year:
For the past 5 or 6 years, at each year's end I would pull the curtains on the variously-named "Investors' Thread", and start anew. But some while back I decided there was no reason to follow this and so, at least for the next 365, we'll be continuing this thread without pause.
For the past 5 or 6 years, at each year's end I would pull the curtains on the variously-named "Investors' Thread", and start anew. But some while back I decided there was no reason to follow this and so, at least for the next 365, we'll be continuing this thread without pause.
If we don't get it to 420,069 posts, you are all fired.
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