Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Come on Tesla. I need to know if I need to go get drunk and celebrate, or go get drunk and drown my sorrows.

 

[The Accountant]

Not sure if anyone posted this info:

Both Q2 & Q3 P&D Reports were issued on day 2 after the quarter after the market close at about 4:30pm.
My expectation is that we will see the Q4 report tomorrow after the close around that same time.

 

[woof]

sudo rm -rf /*

Then enter the root password

Edit: please don't really do this

Only works if the user's password is the same as root's. (sudo uses the user's password...if the user is root...no need to sudo!)

 

[woodisgood]

Come on Tesla. I need to know if I need to go get drunk and celebrate, or go get drunk and drown my sorrows.

Just get started already. You can change up the weapon of choice when the numbers come in.

 

[Boomer19]

Only works if the user's password is the same as root's. (sudo uses the user's password...if the user is root...no need to sudo!)

sudo nano - woof!

 

[theschnell]

Not sure if anyone posted this info:

Both Q2 & Q3 P&D Reports were issued on day 2 after the quarter after the market close at about 4:30pm.
My expectation is that we will see the Q4 report tomorrow after the close around that same time.

I'm confused. Is today not Day 2?

 

[The Accountant]

I'm confused. Is today not Day 2?

Second business day. Today is the 1st business day after the close. I should have clarified that. Thanks

 

[SOULPEDL]

Second business day. Today is the 1st business day after the close. I should have clarified that. Thanks

Oh no, Friday cliffhanger?

 

[JusRelax]

Just get started already. You can change up the weapon of choice when the numbers come in.

But should I order tres comas or Budlight?!?!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Second business day. Today is the 1st business day after the close. I should have clarified that. Thanks

Q4 '18 was issued on January 2nd. Fewer reporting jurisdictions, however.

But should I order tres comas or Budlight?!?!

Hey if the stock ends up where the superbulls want, maybe you can drink cuatro comas!

 

[mongo]

Historic P&D list per @Fact Checking :

Let's have a look at probable "Tesla Q1 Vehicle Production and Deliveries" report filing dates.

Firstly, here's the Edgar filing track record and timestamps of D&P reports from the past 3 years:

2016/Q1: Filing Date: 2016-04-04 (Mon), Accepted: 2016-04-04 16:57:12 (Mon), Period of Report: 2016-04-04 (Mon)
2016/Q2: Filing Date: 2016-07-05 (Tue), Accepted: 2016-07-05 06:17:10 (Mon), Period of Report: 2016-07-03 (Sun)
2016/Q3: Filing Date: 2016-10-03 (Sun), Accepted: 2016-10-03 16:47:46 (Sun), Period of Report: 2016-10-02 (Sat)
2016/Q4: Filing Date: 2017-01-03 (Tue), Accepted: 2017-01-03 16:25:20 (Tue), Period of Report: 2017-01-03 (Tue)
2017/Q1: Filing Date: 2017-04-03 (Sun), Accepted: 2017-04-03 06:02:22 (Sun), Period of Report: 2017-04-02 (Sat)
2017/Q2: Filing Date: 2017-07-03 (Mon), Accepted: 2017-07-03 15:21:19 (Mon), Period of Report: 2017-07-03 (Mon)
2017/Q3: Filing Date: 2017-10-02 (Mon), Accepted: 2017-10-02 17:19:16 (Mon), Period of Report: 2017-10-02 (Mon)
2017/Q4: Filing Date: 2018-01-03 (Wed), Accepted: 2018-01-03 17:10:27 (Wed), Period of Report: 2018-01-03 (Wed)
2018/Q1: Filing Date: 2018-04-03 (Tue), Accepted: 2018-04-03 09:00:33 (Tue), Period of Report: 2018-04-03 (Tue)
2018/Q2: Filing Date: 2018-07-02 (Mon), Accepted: 2018-07-02 09:04:06 (Mon), Period of Report: 2018-07-02 (Mon)
2018/Q3: Filing Date: 2018-10-02 (Tue), Accepted: 2018-10-02 08:35:28 (Tue), Period of Report: 2018-10-02 (Tue)
2018/Q4: Filing Date: 2019-01-02 (Wed), Accepted: 2019-01-02 08:38:32 (Wed), Period of Report: 2019-01-02 (Wed)

These are the Q1 timestamps only:

2016/Q1: Filing Date: 2016-04-04 (Mon), Accepted: 2016-04-04 16:57:12 (Mon), Period of Report: 2016-04-04 (Mon)
2017/Q1: Filing Date: 2017-04-03 (Sun), Accepted: 2017-04-03 06:02:22 (Sun), Period of Report: 2017-04-02 (Sat)
2018/Q1: Filing Date: 2018-04-03 (Tue), Accepted: 2018-04-03 09:00:33 (Tue), Period of Report: 2018-04-03 (Tue)

From this the historic pattern is:

• Tesla filed on either April 3rd or 4th, and it's weekend-invariant such as in Q1 2017.
• The last 2 years Tesla filed on the 3rd.
• But note that the last 3 quarterly P&D reports are showing a speedup in reporting on the 2nd day of the next month - i.e. 2019 could see a Q1 report date on April 2, Tuesday.
• The timestamps are Eastern Time, and the last 4 reports were filed between 8:30am and 9:15am, just before regular trading begins at 9:30am.
• In earlier years Tesla filed the report after the close of trading, with one exception (Q2'17).

From this my expectation are the following dates and probabilities:

The Q1 deliveries and production report will probably be released on one of the following dates:

• April 2 (Tuesday), before market open on a Wednesday, between 8:30am and 9:30am. I'd say the probability is ~80% as this is the latest pattern IMHO.
  
• April 3, before market open on a Thursday. Probability ~20%: this is what they did in 2018, but then sped up their reporting system in the rest of 2018.
• There's tail probabilities of late April 1 release (unlikely due to the 'April's fool' date), or after regular trading on the 2rd, or anytime on the 3rd. Any other dates would set a new precedent.
  
• Note that Wall Street appears to be expecting April 3rd based on the 2018 precedent, so an "early" report released on the 2nd before trading could create stronger price reaction than usual.

I.e. including today there's probably 2 trading days left (March 29 and April 1) before the delivery report is released.

Not advice.

 

[TexasGator]

**** yeah!



And all our yesterdays have lighted, blighted, April fools
The way to dusty death
Out, damn spot out!
Life’s but one dream, two dream, red dream, blue dream, a poor shorter that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more
He’s mean
He’s a heel
He’s as cuddly as a cactus and as charming as an eel
He’s a monster
His heart's an empty hole
He’s a goner
And has got garlic in his soul
It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing

Great! where do I send the catnip?

 

[Unpilot]

Well SP is up a little in after hours....so there's that.

 

[dl003]

For anyone looking for an edge, instead of F5ing the Communication page, try this link
https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

 

[Cherry Wine]

Historic P&D list per @Fact Checking :

Looking at those timestamps, it would be unprecedented for it come out this late in the PM. I'll give my F5 key a rest...

...for now.

 

[DrMazeppa]

Looking at those timestamps, it would be unprecedented for it come out this late in the PM. I'll give my F5 key a rest...

...for now.

What about P&D in Q1 2019? Wasn't that late in the night?
Anyway, we shall soon know...

 

[lklundin]

While we are waiting for the Q4 P&D report, I just want to point to this new trend in investment fund reporting:

Riku Mattila on Twitter

 

[sundaymorning]

Part of the GF3 deliveries the other day saw a photo of a MIC Model 3 VIN with a low 3k number, which has been interpreted as total GF3 production having exceeded 3k. I am still in Italy with a poor Internet connection and cannot find that photo just now, but it has been tweeted repeatedly.

Thanks for this info, let’s go back to M3 ramp in the US last year. It appears that we may have forgotten that Tesla doesn’t produce VINs in sequential order anymore. The blooomberg tracker as well as Troy’s data would show very high VINs weeks before being able to fill in the gap.

 

[Steve m]

Historic P&D list per @Fact Checking :

The pattern I noticed is that in both 2018 and 2019 Q4 P&D was released on a Wednesday so we have to wait until the 8th.

 

[Navin]

New year so far

why is the stock price going up so much today

Roth

IRA

F5

Tomorrow?