Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

This confuses lots of people when they first get involved in options Prices are per share, not per (100-share) contract.

I am just going to throw this out there:
My broker - comdirect.de - sells options in fractions of 1/10 or 1/100 of the underlying security.

That's right, you buy the right to buy (or sell) 0.1 or 0.01 share. I do believe the minimum order corresponds to a single, whole share. I was very confused by this when I first looked at option prices - because I assumed 100:1 to have the normal meaning, making the option premiums seemingly underpriced by a factor of 10,000.

See attached photo for a couple of soon-to-expire TSLA calls - as one can see the per-contract price for the higher strike is _higher_ because it buys you 10 times more of the underlying TSLA.

 

[MartinAustin]

So you expect no sales bounce from Plaid? Coming this Summer....

I expect a PROFIT bounce from Plaid.

Cheers!

Speaking of which... I think the Plaid revision is going to be available a LOT earlier than November (Elon's tweet). I think the change will happen after Battery Investor Day. There might be a week or two of Fremont downtime immediately following that presentation, but they will move pretty swiftly after mentioning the improvements.

 

[printf42]

Thanks for this; would they start this project if they would have troubles in Fremont starting Y production?

This vindicates Y production & deliveries will start in Q1.

MSM news title after Q1:
Tesla had an ok Q1 but missed street expectations of delivering Model Y, Roadster2, Semi and CyberTruck.

 

[KarenRei]

Speaking of which... I think the Plaid revision is going to be available a LOT earlier than November (Elon's tweet).

The November timeline is obsolete

Elon Musk on Twitter

It's due out this summer.

(Now cue people expecting deliveries to start in Q1 in 3, 2, 1.... )

 

[Mike Smith]

Chrysler is unveiling their most bleeding edge technology at CES - a 'hybrid powered vehicle'. The future has arrived.

Fiat Chrysler showcases new hybrid electric Jeeps at CES this week

 

[Artful Dodger]

Interesting, BTW, tat Tesla will sell in Israel this year. Jordan now is covered by Superchargers and Israel will be within a few months. What is next?

Trans-Sibertian Highway a.k.a. the New Silk Road

I expect dual-headed Supercharger stands with CCS-2 (Euro-std) and GB/T (China-std) connectors.

More interesting will be the Mega-Charger connector. This will be 'road-train' heaven for autonomous Semi's. There may only be 1 human operator per million kg of cargo.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

Trans-Sibertian Highway a.k.a. the New Silk Road

I expect dual-headed Supercharger stands with CCS-2 (Euro-std) and GB/T (China-std) connectors.

More interesting will be the Mega-Charger connector. This will be 'road-train' heaven for autonomous Semi's. There may only be 1 human operator per million kg of cargo.

Cheers!

It's fortune that just three countries make up over 90% of the trip from the Pacific to Europe, and they're all very pro-EV (China, Kazakhstan, Ukraine) - only the required brief pass through Russia involves a relatively EV-unfriendly country.

That said, I expect such a route to leave Kazakhstan in the direction of Chelyabinsk and head west toward Ukraine through Russia, rather than western Kazakhstan. Western Kazakhstan is really barren, while southern Russia has a reasonably good population density. And of course, since Tesla does plan to build out to Moscow from eastern / northern Europe, you'd surely have a northerly branch between Moscow and Samara / Tolyatti as well.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the Plaid revision is going to be available a LOT earlier than November (Elon's tweet)

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk

Replying to @Teslarati

The final configuration used at Nürburgring to set the record will go into production around summer 2020, so this is not merely for the track

5:20 AM - 16 Oct 2019 ​

 

[Navin]

 

[KarenRei]

@KarenRei
A question. This was posted as a model Y seen in Manteca, California, USA seen yesterday.
Is it a 3 or a Y?
(door handles, chrome or dark?)
View attachment 497034

That's a Y, not a chrome delete 3. Rear door panel goes down to the wheel arch instead of diagonally in front of it. Also, very pronounced black rear bumper/diffuser.

 

[Chocochip]

@KarenRei
A question. This was posted as a model Y seen in Manteca, California, USA seen yesterday.
Is it a 3 or a Y?
(door handles, chrome or dark?)
View attachment 497034

It's a Y. You can recognise it based on the line of the rear door cutout -- goes into the back wheel arch.

Narrator: It was then that Chocochip reluctantly accepted a fact that's been nagging him for a while: there was no longer a way for humans to beat the speed with which the AI could provide information!

 

[EVDRVN]

Or just that it looks nothing like a 3 from the side, just look at the rear and the stance.

 

[Swampgator]

That's a Y, not a chrome delete 3. Rear door panel goes down to the wheel arch instead of diagonally in front of it. Also, very pronounced black rear bumper/diffuser.

Also about 3 inches higher than the Model 3 next to it

 

[willow_hiller]

Hypothetically speaking, if one without the ability to trade pre-market were looking to add a few shares tomorrow, is it better to place a limit order and hope it's filled at open, or be patient and watch for a macro-induced MMD? Cheers!

If any other complete noobs like me are trying to learn from my example; the limit order seemed to be a good move in this case for a couple of reasons.

1. TDAmeritrade was having trouble logging in right at 9:29 AM, so trying to time any sort of live order to the market open would have been a pain.
2. The order filled at 440.35 right after some pre-market jitters. And the market-maker-capped-enthusiasm from Friday seems to have carried over a bit into this morning.

 

[Todd Burch]

Stock looking pretty good so far. Can't wait for the short covering to start.

 

[KarenRei]

Also about 3 inches higher than the Model 3 next to it

Indeed, but perspective can sometimes mislead. The arrangement of panels, however, gives a guaranteed answer.

 

[Chocochip]

Don't look now, but...

 

[humbaba]

Stock looking pretty good so far. Can't wait for the short covering to start.

Yeah, I'm still waiting for that.

Oh, sure, any retail shorts who initiated < $300 are almost certainly out at this point, but I've never believed that retail makes up much of the short position. In fact, I expect that there has been additional shorting into the rise, though presumably some profit taking on any fall.

Thanks to the rules favoring short sellers there is no visibility into this activity (no, please don't mention @ihors3 fantasies) but if the end of December short interest is not appreciably lower that would be an indication. So we have to a wait a week or so to find out what the short interest was at the end of December and will never know current short interest.

As was pointed out when I posted about the lack of stability in short interest value at risk (it has varied considerably, contrary to some statements made here) the short interest is also comprised of hedging done by funds, etc., and so it can fluctuate while "the shorts" maintain a constant value at risk. Fair enough, but has anyone done an analysis to show that the changes in short interest value at risk track with that? I don't have the knowledge to do so or I'd take a stab at it myself.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Don't look now, but...

I used to live for Friday evening so I could enjoy the weekend. Now I can't wait for it to be over so I can continue to get rich ...

 

[Tslynk67]

Indeed, but perspective can sometimes mislead. The arrangement of panels, however, gives a guaranteed answer.

Most obvious give-away to me is that it's a hatch-back...