Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

"I am long on TSLA, not selling before $4000”

That phrase "long" is starting to look way shorter than anticipated. April or May this year???

I have to sell my 3 call options before June. I will probably sell them all if it hits near $1000 a share before then. If Tesla gets to $1000 a share my $300 investment would be worth over $150,000. Not to pat my own back here. I have also lost a fortune in the last 5 years buying options. Everybody loses in the beginning when they deal in options. Most just quit. A few people learn how to use them and really become wealthy. I always knew Tesla would be a huge company I just couldn't understand why people could not see it as quickly as I did.

 

[PhaseWhite]

...and if you go back far enough... before anyone got to Bob Lutz...

Clearly the people who were until recently paying Bob Lutz to say anything negative he could think of about Tesla have stopped paying him - either because they ran out of money, they can now see Tesla is unstoppable, a multi-year contract ran out, Bob Lutz is refusing to do it, or some other reason.

I think the much simpler explanation is he's realized that he was wrong and doesn't want to appear like a complete idiot.

 

[winfield100]

Short Interest comes out today after the Close, right? That's how many shares should be moved to China.

And Zach should annouce it as the 'one more thing' on the 2019H4 CC.

CH33RS!

@Artful Dodger
How do you “move shares to China”?
Do you “open a brokerage trading desk based there”, do some kind of ADR’s?
Would that be a way to reduce float by that amount?
25 million shares suddenly vanishing from the float

That would be a
“Night of the long knives” for most all shorts,
but options folks? I’m confused.
I can see collective screams from brokerages that lent shares to short, a fascinating concept to ponder

 

[Artful Dodger]

Max Pain: 447.5









/s

 

[Chickenlittle]

I have to sell my 3 call options before June. I will probably sell them all if it hits near $1000 a share before then. If Tesla gets to $1000 a share my $300 investment would be worth over $150,000. Not to pat my own back here. I have also lost a fortune in the last 5 years buying options. Everybody loses in the beginning when they deal in options. Most just quit. A few people learn how to use them and really become wealthy. I always knew Tesla would be a huge company I just couldn't understand why people could not see it as quickly as I did.

If you believe the price is headed their you would to do better to sell option soon after they pass their target price, put some cash on the side and purchase out of the money options and repeat the cycle. Option deep in the money do not rise as much as those out of the money as they approach their target price.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Sony produced the first commercial lithium-ion battery in 1991: Keywords to understanding Sony Energy Devices鐔?Sony Energy Devices Corporation

That is true. However Sony sold its battery business, including Sony Energy Devices Corporation, to Murata Manufacturing back in 2017.
If Sony goes forward with making an EV I expect they will outsource both batteries and battery pack. They would have to start from scratch to develop their own powertrain, which would be a long expensive haul to bring them up to being 5+ years behind Tesla.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

I think the much simpler explanation is he's realized that he was wrong and doesn't want to appear like a complete idiot.

No I think Bob Lutz is a lot smarter than that. It was so obvious and sudden. You don't know he might have wanted to keep the price of the stock down for as long as possible so he could BUY MORE. There are so many reasons. Huge hedge funds can't just buy all they want of a stock without affecting the price. They have to buy slowly. What he did isn't even illegal. That's why beginners always loose in the stock market.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Tesla decides to move 10% shares to China, this stock could double in a few weeks. I hope they don't do that yet. I am still in accumulation mode.

@Artful Dodger
How do you “move shares to China”?
Do you “open a brokerage trading desk based there”, do some kind of ADR’s?
Would that be a way to reduce float by that amount?
25 million shares suddenly vanishing from the float

That would be a
“Night of the long knives” for most all shorts,
but options folks? I’m confused.
I can see collective screams from brokerages that lent shares to short, a fascinating concept to ponder

Paging @TradingInvest

Indeed, any insight you can provide into the machinations involved in moving shares between Exchanges would be greatfully received. TIA.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Managers can beat the market. It’s rare but doable. My grandfather-in-law Seth Glickenhaus did it for many years. Not a lot of players out there like he was. He passed away a few years back at 103. One of our last conversations was him asking me what I thought about Tesla. My answer was dead wrong.

Dead wrong? Dang! You mean your brother-in-law got the entire inheritance then?

Seriously though, do you mean you told him Tesla didn't have a good future? And how did he respond?

 

[ammulder]

That is true. However Sony sold its battery business, including Sony Energy Devices Corporation, to Murata Manufacturing back in 2017.
If Sony goes forward with making an EV I expect they will outsource both batteries and battery pack. They would have to start from scratch to develop their own powertrain, which would be a long expensive haul to bring them up to being 5+ years behind Tesla.

I really haven’t got the impression that Sony wants to build a car. I think they want to compete with CarPlay/Android Auto for a piece of the infotainment market among all the idiot OEMs that are going to outsource their primary interaction with their customers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla shares could drop to $10 in a worst-case scenario, Morgan Stanley says | CNBQ.com

May 21, 2019

"Tesla shares could drop to $10 in a worst-case scenario, Morgan ... the research team, which included analyst Adam Jonas, said in the note."​

Strategically overvalued advice -- for a fee. That is some Mil Spec Stupid right there folks. And you saw it first on CNBQ.com

Cheers!

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

If you believe the price is headed their you would to do better to sell option soon after they pass their target price, put some cash on the side and purchase out of the money options and repeat the cycle. Option deep in the money do not rise as much as those out of the money as they approach their target price.

I agree. My original investment was about $700. I bought 1 Jan 2021 690 call, One June 690 call and 4 June $600 calls. When it dropped down around $200 was when for $100 each at different times I bought the June 500,520 and 530 calls which I now am still hanging on to. I sold the other 6 calls for $2800 and still have the cash.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I actually found out about it from this thread, never paid attention to the meat shelves. My favorite now!

It's also at TGIF restaurants nationwide, when it's in stock (it's been a fast seller)!

Possibly soon to be on McDonald's menu too . . . with required Tesla content: their location is very, very close to the SpaceX and Tesla Design Center, and it's a great combo with the vegan interior on most Teslas for the past few years:

McDonald’s expands test of plant-based Beyond Meat burger

For more details on the environmental devastation caused by raising animals to be murdered and cut into parts, which is why Teslas are nearly 100% vegan, see:

The Amazon is burning because the world eats so much meat - CNN

and:

COWSPIRACY: The Sustainability Secret

 

[Chickenlittle]

I have new cash coming in. I will sell mid term out of money Puts to the shorts. If they don't give me shares at low price, I will keep doing this to them. Earned premium will be used to buy more TSLA shares.

Have sold puts in the past can be lucrative and even in volatile stock can assist in buying low. Problem with it is that you have to keep cash in account to cover the purchase of the shares or use a margin account.

 

[AudubonB]

I think Lynch, Soros, and Buffet all had deals not available to individual investors. Equity stakes, etc. If you restrict the list of fund managers to those who buy publically traded companies at market prices, I don't think any of them have consistently beat the S&P500. Buffet made the famous 10-year bet in 2008: Warren Buffett beat the hedge funds. Here's how

"His (Buffet's) pick, the S&P 500 (OEX), gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%. The names of the funds were not disclosed.

You can see a graph of the performance of each individual fund here:

Buffett's Bet with the Hedge Funds: And the Winner Is …

So, even without averaging all the funds together, Protege Partners couldn't even pick one fund out of five top funds of their choosing to beat the SP500 Index over a 10 year period (or was it 9 years).

So that's a nice excuse for why fund managers can't beat the common index fund but it doesn't really hold water. The truth of the matter is all the MBA and Finance degrees in the world will not make you competent enough to consistently beat the SP500 Index over time. The difference in performance was so stark, even had the fund managers waived their customary fees, they STILL would have lost the bet!

I provided the mathematical reason that the industry cannot beat the market. You provide anecdotal evidence. One can posit, for example, that Protegé was unlucky in their choices. Summary: Each of our arguments has its place.

 

[ZsoZso]

Let me start with a Disclaimer: I am a software guy, I know very little about investing (only what rubbed off on me by reading this thread). I have been mostly buying and holding TSLA since 2014 with some new purchases every year on my retirement saving account, no option plays and very little sell/buy-back plays (with only ~10% of my money) trying to gain a few extra shares by exploiting daily volatility.

Now, lets move onto the point I am trying to make. Looking at the long term TSLA chart, I am trying to guess the new trading range we are about to enter:

I would categorise the history into these phases (with some transition periods in between):
Phase ......... Time interval ......................... Price range
Roadster .... 2010.July -- 2013.Mar. ........ $20-$35
Model S/X... 2013.Sep. -- 2016.Dec. ....... $150-$250
M3-skeptics 2017.June -- 2019.Oct. ......... $180-$380
Model 3/Y ... 2020.Feb. -- 2022.??? .......... $450-$750

Once Model S has proven itself, the stock made a big jump in 2013, but then it was range bound for a while until Model 3 came around. Now, Model 3 is much larger volume car, 3+Y will probably sell an order of magnitude more than S+X, even with half of an ASP and a bit lower profit margin, due to the larger volume should contribute to revenue and bottom line about 3X as much as S+X. So I would have expected the Model 3/Y phase with triple the $ range of the Model S/X phase already in 2018 once production has ramped up for the 3. However, Shorty Air force with strong help from main stream media has managed to hold it back in the phase I called "M3-skeptics" above. Finally, we have managed to break out of that phase and I am hoping we land in that range I proposed; $450-$750, which is simply the triple in $ value of the range we observed in the Model S/X phase. So that is the range I am expecting for this year and next.

What are the next big phases that could move the SP into new higher ranges ?
Is it Cybertruck ? Robotaxi ? Tesla Energy matching revenue/profit of the auto business ?
S&P 500 inclusion ? Shorts giving up the pressure, short interest dropping to healthy single digit % level ?
I do not know in which order these events will materialize and how much each of the effect will be, but in total, I would expect at least 3 more doubling from all of these contributions to the bottom line.
That would bring the stock price to $3600-$6000 range somewhere in the next 5-6 years.

Am I just dreaming and completely off base here ?

 

[FrankSG]

The directors are free to make exceptions to the inclusion rules so it's possible Tesla could be added at any time with three days notice or less.

Are there past examples of this happening?

 

[Curt Renz]

Solving The Money Problem - today:

 

[AudubonB]

Managers can beat the market. It’s rare but doable. My grandfather-in-law Seth Glickenhaus did it for many years. Not a lot of players out there like he was. He passed away a few years back at 103. One of our last conversations was him asking me what I thought about Tesla. My answer was dead wrong.

You are missing the point I was making. Yours is tantamount to my corollary: some bodies will exit their careers in Wall St with fortunes. That is not the same as beating the market. To do that, you have to do better in every month, every quarter, every year, your entire career. Glickenhaus did not do that - I state without evidence but I'm as sure of that as I am breathing. He was shackled with the same costs that weigh all down.

I, also, have smartly outperformed - in my own portfolio - the market...in the years within which I have been active. The reasons are very few: SBUX, FCX, AMT, shorting the LatAm bubble, SCTY, TSLA. In my professional career, I was not able to overweight in specific positions the funds I managed to anywhere near the levels I could and did in my personal accounts; all in all I was probably a little better than my index counterparts but there are other complications that are too far OT to divulge, let alone discuss.

The longer one is professionally active in the markets, the closer one's performance will regress to the mean.

 

[Hock1]

Or they can wait 5 years and buy it from BMW at a discount

I'm thinking 2 to 3 years.

Are there past examples of this happening?

Or---the directors could opt to, even after meeting financial criteria to be included, not include TSLA because the directors have buddies at GS and other firms that make the majority of their profits lending shares to short sellers.