comments say it's a Mercedes EQSA camouflaged Tesla was photographed driving around Pali Alto today. “A Model S-like vehicle “
The Tesla Show on Twitter
Discuss amongst yourselves
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You mean the Pre-Model 3 Bob Lutz and the Post-Model 3 Bob Lutz?
my recollection is that Lutz was Chanos grade negative during the Model X ramp, saying with a fake cocky tone of ‘authority’ that Tesla was going to go bankrupt trying to deliver the unmanufacturable X. CNBC never asked him about this during later visits where he opined Tesla doom and gloom with that same fake cocky tone of ‘authority.’
Singer3000
Member
What are thoughts on steady state Model 3 vs Model Y gross margins?
Revenue per unit is likely to be c.10% higher.
With more efficient capex rollout and new manufacturing advances (wiring harness, stamping and other surprises to be revealed), is it realistic to suppose COGS per unit could be roughly equal, even with bigger battery pack and size of vehicle?
Could we be looking at a 30% margin excluding software upgrades?
Revenue per unit is likely to be c.10% higher.
With more efficient capex rollout and new manufacturing advances (wiring harness, stamping and other surprises to be revealed), is it realistic to suppose COGS per unit could be roughly equal, even with bigger battery pack and size of vehicle?
Could we be looking at a 30% margin excluding software upgrades?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Note that a really large short can probably capitulate by betraying all the other shorts: buying lots of out-of-the-money calls whose size is larger than the short position, then capitulate really hard and publicly, helping trigger an even larger short squeeze.
For example if Jim Chanos is short TSLA 500,000 shares, and he buys 5,000 call contracts, he not only caps his losses at $700, but can also disclose the fact that he covered after he has done so, and profit from the calls. With more contracts he could earn even more.
(I'm not saying that this is what is going on: it's quite probable that TSLA is only a couple of percentage points of Jim Chanos's portfolio, sufficiently covered by the long positions that are 190% of his short positions, and that he intends to wait some more and see what happens.)
Finally, it's also possible that the buying activity is by options market makers and other options writers, who don't like the tail risks of the $700 calls given the recent rise of TSLA and would rather face a calculable loss than a blowout move.
Options market makers are almost by definition writing naked calls and delta hedge on the way up, and are running after the price - as @ReflexFunds's calculations are demonstrating it: every +$10 TSLA rise triggers +2,100,000 TSLA buys in market maker delta hedging alone (!) - it might be even more than that at current price levels:
Reflex Research on Twitter
"2) Tesla Calls open interest (on 71m shares):
Current market value of all call options is $6.8bn ($2.5bn expiring <2 weeks). $6.2bn are in the money."
"6) Net delta exposure from options market:
The gross delta exposure from Calls, Puts & Convert Hedges can be netted out. 38.1m long from Calls, 5.5m short from Puts, 4.0m long from convert options hedging. This nets out at 36.6 million Tesla share long, currently worth $14.0bn."
"2) Tesla Calls open interest (on 71m shares):
Current market value of all call options is $6.8bn ($2.5bn expiring <2 weeks). $6.2bn are in the money."
"6) Net delta exposure from options market:
The gross delta exposure from Calls, Puts & Convert Hedges can be netted out. 38.1m long from Calls, 5.5m short from Puts, 4.0m long from convert options hedging. This nets out at 36.6 million Tesla share long, currently worth $14.0bn."
The delta hedging might be more than what Black-Sholes predicts, as IMO options market makers cannot ignore the fat tail risks after such a fast rise. It's likely a stronger force currently than the still very high short interest - and the two buying forces add up.
Options writers might also not have the trading power to limit options payouts via manipulating the stock price next Friday anymore, given how large the open interest on the 2020/01/17 options chains is.
I.e. beyond the S&P 400/500 inclusion buying we might also be seeing an "options squeeze".
Not advice.
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Pezpunk
Active Member
I remember Lutz making snide comments on TV, saying things like (paraphrasing from memory) "driving a Tesla is like driving a collection of body panels loosely arranged into the shape of a car", and "if you want to own one, better get one now because they won't be in business very long."
At the annual meeting, about a half hour before it began, I saw Gali sitting right in a row right behind the board of directors, joking with a few people with him. I also saw a seat about 20 rows back right next to one of two mics in the auditorium set up for the Q&A. I took the seat next to that mic... alas, I think Third Row Tesla was formed by Gali and his new friends in that third row (and went on to have a several hour hangout with Elon). At the time I thought I was incredibly lucky to get a seat right next to the mic, lols.
Who's up for a gap up Thurs or Fri?
We’ve been talking about S&P 500 inclusion here and its possible effects on the stock price, but what will it take to have TSLA included in the S&P 100 (and what could the extra effect on the stock be)? Does anybody know what the requirements are? I’ve seen that at least 20 members of the S&P 100 have a smaller market cap than TSLA, so that should not be a barrier.
Several people have been speculating about what the next trading range for TSLA will be. Which makes me wonder: does there have to be a new trading range (with boundaries to the upside and downside that regularly get tested)? There could as well be a steady rise over the next years, fueled by a string of potentially positive developments. It happened to many tech stocks over the last few years, so why not to TSLA?
MODS-
If there was a subscription option for this forum that allowed paid subscribers to a new service to Click To Hide selected posts so they never show again in that subscriber's account, that'd be great.
Other Click To Hide subscribers could either:
1- Use the system as described, or-
2- Choose the threshold number of Hide-Clicks by other Hide-Clickers to posts tp be likewise hidden from their view, or-
3- Or copy a favorite fellow forum member and see only their Un-Hide-Clicked posts (provided that member has approved that public transparency). Those who opt to allow others to duplicate their Hide-Selections might opt to show how many fellow Hide-Followers they have so that other subscribers could opt to duplicate the most popularly followed.
Finally paid my dime and bought my handsome little red S-shield (most expensive supporter option,
I might add!). I'd LOVE to pay as much again to become a TMC Hide Clicker to help pay for getting that software written.
Much simpler than I made it sound, and would save countless wasted forum member hours.
-EDITED way too many times, sorry, best I can do at 3:20 AM. With my suggestion we could all go to bed earlier.
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One thing we must not underestimate is the new customer impact to stock demand. Think about it this way, every quarter we have 110k new customers. Assuming each custom buys ten shares (some buy more, some buy none) that in itself is a stock catalyst. And for these guys, they aren't even thinking about marker cap or cash flows, they are likely new product buyers regardless of price. 200m shares outstanding. Assume one car leads to ten shares purchased, and demand for stock quickly will become insane.
Tesla doesn't have any issues with selling every car they can make, but they are limited by how many cars they can make. Strictly speaking, there is a going to be a pause in production growth when Shanghai is ramped up and Berlin is still not yet operating. Fremont is already operating at maximum capacity, so no production growth is expected from there. Elon has stated cars will not be made in Reno, so once Fremont and Shanghai are both fully operating, that's it for production capacity increase until Berlin is online.
Growth is always going to be "lumpy" in the car business, you build a factory, that takes time, the factory starts working, suddenly there's a jump in yearly production. So trading ranges ought to be a normality for TSLA, and thus far in it's short history that has absolutely been the case, corresponding roughly to periods between new factories opening.
The wild card is I guess the other stuff. Solar and FSD being the big ones. If solar takes off, that's new revenue potential. If FSD becomes a reality, well, we can all start looking for private islands at that point. But you can't count on those, so just think about production of cars for now I suppose.
Trading range boundaries are simply resistance levels and support levels that become respected by traders over time.
At the moment we have not found the new resistance level because we keep achieving new ATHs.
Also, chartists will tell you there are certain patterns that naturally tend to form these boundaries. Some of them make fairly reliable predictions.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I made my money by being super concentrated in a few stocks when I had about a decade of experience investing. The way I concentrate is different too. Of the ones that made it big, I tend to get involved with the projects. Tesla is the least involved of them all and first started as a FU to oil.
At the moment really favor diversification and stability primarily because I got tired. But also, after looking back, if I were to rerun my life again believing in my ability, I'd diversify and put the income into cash flow assets and use the cash flow to further fund investments and projects. Big "buyer beware" here as the sauce lies in "belief in my ability". Now that the results are out, I strongly believe in my abilities, but during those time, especially during youth, it was wavering back and fourth.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
There was a time when Tesla was looking at southern Nevada,Arizona, and New Mexico.
With Zero interest in northern Nevada. Then some brothel owner showed up in a private plane at a Tesla meeting in Las Vegas pitching a tour of an industrial park outside Reno.
Where do we see these "trading range boundaries," "resistance" and "support" levels I keep hearing about? Looks like a made-up excuse for every SP pause.
Are those "chartists"right? Or only as reliable as "annalists"?
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