Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

{ref. @Sancho }
And your World’s Oldest First-Time-Dad Moderator is so enamored of the Model X doors for their facility in getting a baby in and out of the back that I neutralize your disaffection...in spades.

 

[Sancho]

{ref. @Sancho}
And your World’s Oldest First-Time-Dad Moderator is so enamored of the Model X doors for their facility in getting a baby in and out of the back that I neutralize your disaffection...in spades.

We have a tight garage. If we had a baby the MX would have been a non-starter for us.

 

[FrankSG]

I believe @Prunesquallor and @mrdoubleb might be able to provide a more accurate assessment, but I had the impression that PSA has an even poorer EV program than FCA.

If FCA-PSA gobbles up all supercredits with highly subsidized compliance EVs in the small car segment, then the Tesla per unit bounty drops to around ~$6,000 IIRC - with flat 30k deliveries in the next 4 years that's still $180m per quarter.

We also don't know anything about the structure of the pooling agreement, other than that it exists, and that FCA provided their cost of the pooling agreement under the assumption that they'll be able to raise EV sales this year, and that they'll be able to 100% avoid Tesla's ZEV credits starting in 2021 (which I consider highly unlikely).

Sounds like I need to update my understanding of this deal. Last time I heard it was ~$2 billion for the years 2020 and 2021, but now there's talk of different numbers and a longer time period? Could somebody explain to me, or point me to where I can read about this deal in more details?

 

[jbcarioca]

I believe @Prunesquallor and @mrdoubleb might be able to provide a more accurate assessment, but I had the impression that PSA has an even poorer EV program than FCA...

PSA has greatly changed in the very short time Tavares has been in charge. BTW, in my very humble opinion, Tavares may be the single most capable alumnus of the Carlos Ghosn school. He was the author of Nissan recovery on North America and South America ten years ago, but left to take over PSA before completing the task. Never underestimate him. Could he make a better deal with Tesla than did Manley/Elkann &Co? There will be surprises! I have no idea what they will be. Just look at Opel today for clues, comparing it to four years ago.

 

[avoigt]

In a leaked letter from the Tesla Semi team they talk about achieved GAAP profitability.

Wow, if that is true then it's huge and breaking news. In this leaked letter that sounds credible, Tesla confirms achieved GAAP profitability.
Q4 profit.... S&P inclusion ... a full year profit.

Its still a rumor and of course there is not confirmation but may explain why we have all of a sudden this huge long buyer behavior while shorts did not concerting in a significant way. Some institutional may have got a wink and started to accumulate knowing the positive implications such news would have.

The Tesladorian on Twitter

P.S. may have discussed here already

 

[KarenRei]

In a leaked letter from the Tesla Semi team they talk about achieved GAAP profitability.

Wow, if that is true then it's huge and breaking news. In this leaked letter that sounds credible, Tesla confirms achieved GAAP profitability.
Q4 profit.... S&P inclusion ... a full year profit.

Its still a rumor and of course there is not confirmation but may explain why we have all of a sudden this huge long buyer behavior while shorts did not concerting in a significant way. Some institutional may have got a wink and started to accumulate knowing the positive implications such news would have.

The Tesladorian on Twitter

Most people here are dubious and think that's just awkward wording referring to Q3.

 

[Sancho]

{ref. @Sancho }
And your World’s Oldest First-Time-Dad Moderator is so enamored of the Model X doors for their facility in getting a baby in and out of the back that I neutralize your disaffection...in spades.

And maybe my wife and I are particularly clumsy, but we lived in constant fear of being mauled by the door closing on us as we reached for packages in the back seat. We were each hit by the door once, which was all that it took to view those doors as our enemies.

And picking up friends to go to a movie? The first time you arrive with the grand entrance of those doors rising, it’s an amusing display of techno-overkill. Very soon after that it just seems ridiculous.

Meanwhile, going back to an Audi makes us appreciate how unlikely any EV driver will ever switch back to ICE. The very thing that’s supposed to be the EV achilles heal — refueling difficulties — turns out to be a strength. Having to periodically remember to go to a smelly gas station is a real downer.

We used to love Audi. Now their cars seem like dinosaurs in every way.

Our MY can’t come fast enough.

 

[Paracelsus]

Sure:

[Notes:

• 567,704 put options are at or below $300 and will likely expire worthless. I'm sure that an almost unanimous portion of TMC readership will be delighted to learn that a (formerly) significant short position of Mark BS. Spiegel's 2020 bankwuptcy puts will possibly expire among them. Good riddance.
  
• The 'near the money' portion of the open interest is actually smaller than this week's.
• There's a very high number of calls expiring in the money: 128k contracts if the price stays above $450. Deep in the money contracts are often exercised, because deep in the money options contracts are relatively illiquid in the market (higher spreads), and the delta hedging and options excercise inventory of these contracts is significant, and the dynamic delta hedging effect is significant as well, should there be bigger price swings.
• "Max effective pain" looks to be around $500, so I'd expect defenses of that line, should the price break above $490.
  
• There's 40k "short squeeze bet" calls at and above $600, I'd expect market makers to defend that level if given the opportunity, should $500 fall. Last Friday I believe it was them who successfully defended the ~$445 level, so it's possible if not much else is going on in the markets.

A sincere thank you @Fact Checking - Your reading of the tea leaves for expiry for both this week and for next week is very helpful. With Max Pain around 500 at the end of next week TSLA could very likely be boxed in to a fairly narrow band until next Friday when the massive house cleaning of Bankwuptcy positions happens. I do like the idea of TSLA ending this week between 490 and 500 and staying in that range for while. With that stock price going through the weekend and a few gentle tests of 500 next week it would really help load up the spring on the longer charts for big break out afterwards. And the timing of 'afterwards' serendipitously coincides with Q4 earnings and opportunities for some additional news along the way. Thus any good news could really fuel a rocket

 

[HG Wells]

Nice pre market

 

[willow_hiller]

Wow, if that is true then it's huge and breaking news. In this leaked letter that sounds credible, Tesla confirms achieved GAAP profitability.
Q4 profit.... S&P inclusion ... a full year profit.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe GAAP profitability for the year would require a Q4 EPS of 5.62 or greater. While that's not out of the realm of possibility, I think it's very unlikely (positive black swan?).

 

[Tslynk67]

Porsche expects to sell 900 Taycans this year in Belgium:
https://www.knack.be/nieuws/auto/po...trends&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1578583338

About 30% of the annual sales of Porsche in Belgium, driven by 1.5 year of backorders.

One of the few countries the Taycan will be able to traverse without charging

 

[KarenRei]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe GAAP profitability for the year would require a Q4 EPS of 5.62 or greater. While that's not out of the realm of possibility, I think it's very unlikely (positive black swan?).

I think the term for Tesla getting a full-year 2019 GAAP profit would be "Deus Ex Machina"

 

[Fact Checking]

One of the few countries the Taycan will be able to traverse without charging

I'd qualify that statement with "in the summer" and "tailwind preferred".

 

[willow_hiller]

I think the term for Tesla getting a full-year 2019 GAAP profit would be "Deus Ex Machina"

God from the machine that builds the machine.

 

[KarenRei]

I'd qualify that statement with "in the summer" and "tailwind preferred".

Simulated a cross-Belgium trip (not even the longest possible route). Perfect weather - no wind, 20°C, no degradation. Has to stop partway to add 26% charge, arrives with 6% charge.

 

[Chickenlittle]

In a leaked letter from the Tesla Semi team they talk about achieved GAAP profitability.

Wow, if that is true then it's huge and breaking news. In this leaked letter that sounds credible, Tesla confirms achieved GAAP profitability.
Q4 profit.... S&P inclusion ... a full year profit.

Its still a rumor and of course there is not confirmation but may explain why we have all of a sudden this huge long buyer behavior while shorts did not concerting in a significant way. Some institutional may have got a wink and started to accumulate knowing the positive implications such news would have.

The Tesladorian on Twitter

P.S. may have discussed here already

Sorry but why would tesla semi team know GAAP profitable? I would like to believe it but doubt that information would be put out

 

[jerry33]

I think the term for Tesla getting a full-year 2019 GAAP profit would be "Deus Ex Machina"

Are you sure it's not "Dues Ex Ma China"?

 

[LJS22]

Buff Mage must be counting all of Tesla’s Q4 riches. His tweets are going deep lately, we even have a bitcoin sighting.

but in seriousness does anyone else listen to analyst speak on Tesla and notice they speak of the Tesla chart as some kind of mystery. To me it’s as simple as
A. Lots of cars sold we buy TSLA!
B. Lots of money made we buy TSLA!
C. Not enough cars sold Shorts do their thing
D. No money made shorts do their thing
E. Lots of cars and lots of money means we burn shorts!
It’s quite simple I think

 

[Pezpunk]

In a leaked letter from the Tesla Semi team they talk about achieved GAAP profitability.

Wow, if that is true then it's huge and breaking news. In this leaked letter that sounds credible, Tesla confirms achieved GAAP profitability.
Q4 profit.... S&P inclusion ... a full year profit.

Its still a rumor and of course there is not confirmation but may explain why we have all of a sudden this huge long buyer behavior while shorts did not concerting in a significant way. Some institutional may have got a wink and started to accumulate knowing the positive implications such news would have.

The Tesladorian on Twitter

P.S. may have discussed here already

Most people here are dubious and think that's just awkward wording referring to Q3.

Sorry but why would tesla semi team know GAAP profitable? I would like to believe it but doubt that information would be put out

Karen is right -- they're talking about achieving GAAP profitability in Q3 (and Q4?), not for the whole year. Even if Tesla had managed to overcome the massive losses in Q1 / Q2 to achieve overall profitability for the year (spoiler alert, they haven't), the Semi team would have no way of knowing it, nor would they divulge it to anyone if they did. And they certainly wouldn't do so IN AN EMAIL TO CUSTOMERS OUTSIDE THE COMPANY (which this letter appears directed at), nor would they do so in such a nonchalant manner amidst a list of other public common-knowledge accomplishments.

 

[davepsilon]

Sorry but why would tesla semi team know GAAP profitable? I would like to believe it but doubt that information would be put out

I am guessing it would have better been phrased as achieving a return to GAAP profitability or achieving GAAP profitable quarters or achieving GAAP profitability (as measured on a quarterly basis). I don't take this to mean a GAAP profitable 12 month period.