Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WarpedOne]

There is no such thing as a weak long.

 

[sparcs]

Ross panic sold when TSLA dipped to $200 area. Now he wants back in, he have only 200 shares left, per his post yesterday.

here's the full quote about his own personal shares:

Ross Gerber on Twitter

I actually had 3500 of Tesla I bought at $30 too, 7 years ago. Today same thing I have 200 left. Sold much along the way. Ive traded it and added a bunch last year but if didnt take profits, what would that be worth... $TSLA

for full context, here's the quote about his wealth management as that is separate:

I only took out a small amount for our older clients at $260. But we added back a lot in the low $200 through convertible bonds. So we actually increased our position last year... We just sold some stock and bought all those bonds... Worked marvelously.

it's amazing that i have more TSLA than this talking head who is on TV yapping away as if he's some true believer. I feel like most of the time he's on TV just to pump his wealth management company and try to get some clout talking TSLA. I'll give him credit for being public about it.

 

[Tiger]

The manipulations as we approach Fridays suggests that some of the hedge funds are really trying to protect unhedged calls they sold, and these same hedge funds might be shorting without calls as hedges.

Could it be that they are simply manipulating to amplify their day trading activities? Buy low in the morning and sell higher during the day, endulge (and encourage) the volatility, rinse and repeat?

 

[Fact Checking]

According to Ray4Tesla, GF3 Model 3 is practically sold out for Q1.

RayTesla️ on Twitter

To save the click and to make the information searchable here on TMC:

"MIC M3 Update: Tesla sales rep says red & black M3s are completely sold out for Q1. Limited quantities of white/blue/silver M3s, if ordered now, can still be delivered be4 EOQ. She further says all orders (regardless of color) placed after wed (1/15) won’t be delivered before EOQ1."​

While anecdotal, this leak is very specific about inventory levels and about a new order cutoff date, the kind of information only Tesla sales rep have, so I'd assign it a high probability that it's true. Ray4Tesla is a reliable twitter account with good China information in the past.

BTW., I'm really, really curious exactly how many those "Q1 sales" Tesla China is planning is. Is it 10,000 units? 15,000 units?

Ray4Tesla suggests it might be more:

RayTesla️ on Twitter

"I can see an incredible year ahead for teslacn since demand is basically going through the roof. The earlier estimate of 150k Model 3s for #GF3 by EOY may be too conservative. Combined w/ rising demand in EU, things look exceptional in 2020."
​

Another users asks him about production levels: "This article says they’re already at 3000 a week", to which he says:

"I think that’s the capacity they have right now. Judging from recent hiring round, they may have added 2nd shift. My best guess is around 2k now. Gradual ramp-up will push it to 3k soon."​

Achieving an average 2k/week at GF3 through Q1 would be phenomenal ...

 

[KarenRei]

Not so cheap though, I'd have to sell 8 shares if I wanted to bring the the wife and the X (as in car, not ex, although that's an interesting proposition ).

8 shares? Cheapest arrangement for 2 adults and a Model X is 2,8 shares, round trip (€1320), if one brought their own lunch/dinner and stayed in a shared berth. With a private berth with a window, the fancier lunch option, and 3-course dinners, the price goes up to 3,9 shares (€2025)

You're welcome to bring both the wife and the ex, if the wife is amenable.

 

[KarenRei]

here's the full quote about his own personal shares:

Ross Gerber on Twitter

for full context, here's the quote about his wealth management as that is separate:



it's amazing that i have more TSLA than this talking head who is on TV yapping away as if he's some true believer. I feel like most of the time he's on TV just to pump his wealth management company and try to get some clout talking TSLA. I'll give him credit for being public about it.

He's a great example of why it's a bad idea to pull money from a stock that you still think has huge growth potential because you're scared that it might go the other way (over some fixed timeperiod) rather than just getting protective puts to cover your shares in case that does happen. Had he bought protective puts rather than sell his shares when the stock was at $200, purchased using selling a small fraction of his shares, he'd have 2-2,5xed his money on the stock (depending on the details of the put hedge). I don't know what he did with the money from selling his shares, but I seriously doubt it's yielded that sort of return.

Also, protective puts are (among others) underwritten by fellow bulls. So your "insurance payment" helps make another bull money if it doesn't end up necessary.

 

[JBRR]

Jefferies PT raise 400->600$.

*Walter Bloomberg on Twitter

 

[JBRR]

Blackrock out with their 2020 letter.
CEO letter:
Larry Fink CEO Letter | BlackRock
"A Fundamental Reshaping of Finance"

Client letter:
BlackRock Client Letter | Sustainability
"Sustainability as BlackRock’s New Standard for Investing"

Blackrock already holds tsla but seems likely they are increasing their stake given this.
6.4 million shares as of last 13F filing, 30/9.

 

[CorneliusXX]

In the spirit of "pride goeth before the fall" I'd like to suggest a little less strutting and preening here. Any idiot can make money when the stock he's bullish on goes up and up and up. We're all pleased, but we're not all suddenly geniuses.

If you're an actual trading genius, please tell me when we're about to see TSLA drop more than 10%. And no, it doesn't count if you tell me afterwards.

There definitely is a giddy mood around here. It's like we've collectively decided to forget that Tesla is very volatile and there will be drops of 30% or more from the highs on our way to the future.

Volume forecasts are also getting super bullish in the short term too. Can we at least wait until battery investor day before estimating 600k+ deliveries this year to see if Tesla will have enough capacity to reach the target.

Celebrate the win we have at the moment but don't get stupid with forecasts and leveraged bets if the stock price doesn't continue this amazing run forever.

 

[FrankSG]

To save the click and to make the information searchable here on TMC:

"MIC M3 Update: Tesla sales rep says red & black M3s are completely sold out for Q1. Limited quantities of white/blue/silver M3s, if ordered now, can still be delivered be4 EOQ. She further says all orders (regardless of color) placed after wed (1/15) won’t be delivered before EOQ1."​

While anecdotal, this leak is very specific about inventory levels and about a new order cutoff date, the kind of information only Tesla sales rep have, so I'd assign it a high probability that it's true. Ray4Tesla is a reliable twitter account with good China information in the past.

BTW., I'm really, really curious exactly how many those "Q1 sales" Tesla China is planning is. Is it 10,000 units? 15,000 units?

Ray4Tesla suggests it might be more:

RayTesla️ on Twitter

"I can see an incredible year ahead for teslacn since demand is basically going through the roof. The earlier estimate of 150k Model 3s for #GF3 by EOY may be too conservative. Combined w/ rising demand in EU, things look exceptional in 2020."
​

Another users asks him about production levels: "This article says they’re already at 3000 a week", to which he says:

"I think that’s the capacity they have right now. Judging from recent hiring round, they may have added 2nd shift. My best guess is around 2k now. Gradual ramp-up will push it to 3k soon."​

Achieving an average 2k/week at GF3 through Q1 would be phenomenal ...

I'm also very curious about their planned MiC M3 Q1 sales. This will undoubtedly get covered on the earnings call. I still think it's somewhat unlikely at this point, but if Giga 3 is producing 2k/week and produces 25k+ in Q1, I think there's a possbility of 120k+ deliveries in Q1.

 

[KarenRei]

There definitely is a giddy mood around here. It's like we've collectively decided to forget that Tesla is very volatile and there will be drops of 30% or more from the highs on our way to the future.

Volume forecasts are also getting super bullish in the short term too. Can we at least wait until battery investor day before estimating 600k+ deliveries this year to see if Tesla will have enough capacity to reach the target.

Celebrate the win we have at the moment but don't get stupid with forecasts and leveraged bets if the stock price doesn't continue this amazing run forever.

Re, dealing with leverage management: stochastic investing. Decrease leverage on the way up. Increase on the way down. Don't underestimate how far up or down you might potentially go. Don't take on more theta than you think you can bear in a "things stagnate or go down" case. Be afraid of short-term horizons, because your thesis can be right but factors beyond your control can make the investment wrong.

You can play casino if you want (looks like Jack for example made good money yesterday despite being mostly in puts, just because the price movement was so extreme that the value of his proportionally small call position more than made up for his puts crashing). You might even make yourself rich. You might also bankrupt yourself. That's not something I personally would step into.

 

[LST]

Meanwhile Frankfurt up to USD 533.41 (10:49 CET), +~3.9%

 

[sparcs]

Meanwhile Frankfurt up to USD 533.41 (10:49 CET), +~3.9%

here's pre-market from yahoo finance:

536.95 +12.09 (2.30%)
Pre-Market: 4:52AM EST

looks like we're in for another interesting day

 

[lklundin]

I have a feeling you might like my license plate number...

Good thing that Tesla service appointments are made via the app and not the phone:
"Please repeat your license registration number"
"WEEEEEE"...

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW., I've seen some misconceptions about Elon's performance award, the first tranche of which will vest if Tesla reaches $100b of market capitalization, which with about 180,240,000 common TSLA shares outstanding at the end of Q3 means a price level of about $554.

In the pre-market we are getting closer to that price level, but note that this event will not trigger if TSLA reaches that price level, but only when both the 6-months and 30-days average TSLA price exceeds this price level.

The CEO Performance Award, filed with the SEC in 2018 in a proxy statement, states the following rules for vesting:

Proxy Statement

"measurement of the Market Capitalization Milestones will be based on both (i) a six calendar month trailing average of Tesla’s stock price as well as (ii) a 30 calendar day trailing average of Tesla’s stock price, in each case based on trading days only, and will thus require sustained market capitalization appreciation to be met."

"Certain Other Market Capitalization Provisions. For purposes of achieving the Market Capitalization Milestones, the Company’s market capitalization is based on an average of the Company’s market capitalization for all trading days in the applicable trailing six calendar month period or 30 calendar day period. As of any date of determination, the applicable six month or 30 day period ends with (and is inclusive of) such determination date. The Company’s market capitalization on any particular trading day is equal to the product of the closing price of a share of Tesla’s common stock on the trading day, multiplied by the outstanding shares of Tesla common stock at the closing of the trading day. "

...

"Sustained market capitalization is required for each Market Capitalization Milestone to be met, other than in a change in control situation. Specifically, there are two prongs that must be met to achieve a given Market Capitalization Milestone:"

•  Six calendar month trailing average (based on trading days); and
• 30 calendar day trailing average (based on trading days).

I.e. BOTH the 6-months and the 30-days trailing average stock price must be beyond the $554 price level for Elon's performance award to vest.

(Sorry about using colors close to moderator colors. )

Even if TSLA goes to the moon today and stays there forever, for 6 months none of Elon's options are going to vest and there will be no dilutive effects.

 

[lklundin]

His tweet said he was only setup to cover half of his new 10% equity short:

Since Mark BS(Q) reduced his TSLA short exposure at about an ATH, it is also possible that this was a forced buy of TSLA shares, i.e. a margin call with insufficient collateral added. At least, it looks like no rational plan is being followed there.

Of maybe more relevance was a TSLA long tweet, that he would hopefully not go long TSLA - because he so far has acted as such a perfect contra-indicator for buying TSLA.

Cheers to all longs!

 

[mars_or_bust]

Even if TSLA goes to the moon today and stays there forever, for 6 months none of Elon's options are going to vest and there will be no dilutive effects.

Giving Elon shi*loads of shares is the opposite of dilutive

 

[lklundin]

Shorts are HODLing
Gregory Ozimec on Twitter
Arguments still the same.
View attachment 499823

Edit: actually, at this point with showing so much conviction, I think it's more likely to be manipulators than real shorts.

Actually, several known tesla anti-investors are bashing the stock at their full capacity, presumably in the hope that this will reduce their losses. But all they have is assertions of fraud and calls for out-law'ing AP.

 

[Fact Checking]

Giving Elon shi*loads of shares is the opposite of dilutive

Well, technically it's newly printed shares, so it will impact all the EPS calculations, etc. - i.e. it's technically dilutive, so TSLAQ have been using this half-truth to create an imaginary $554 price barrier for short-term price rises.

The first tranche is 1.69 million shares, so the dilutive effect is also minimal (0.9%) - and obviously dealing with a sustained $554 (and higher) price levels is a happy problem to Tesla investors.

 

[lklundin]

I just happened to look at the 21 Feb Option Chain, and noticed some unusual things:

View attachment 499847

There's some really high volume and open interest in $800 and even $900 call options expiring five weeks from now.

It looks like as a result of this, some of the ASK prices have gotten out of whack. I know there can be very large spreads on certain options, but the spread on some of those is absurd. Just look at the $890 and $860 in particular. ASK price is 5-6x the BID price for those.

To me this looks like:

• Some big players are making big bets on a huge squeeze after earnings.
• The market makers are reluctant to sell these at 'normal' prices, so they've significantly increased the ASK price on some of them.

I am actually worried about a VW/Porsche style short squeeze for Tesla.

I have to imagine the trading volume would explode the trading into chaos (regarding the practical execution of the trades) and that if I tried to take some profit - especially for my call options - that I would get screwed over, e.g. by my broker front-running my sales or other tricks that I wouldn't even know about.

So I would prefer the new short sales to maintain the current ca. 10G $ short exposure so this pattern of strong gains and weak corrections goes on until Tesla is no longer so grossly undervalued.