Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

There goes the MMD, that was fast.

I think we have a new paradigm. Thursdays day and Friday is a typical downward drift to Max Pain while Monday to Wednesday it hitches a ride on a falcon 9

 

[madodel]

In very general terms I know a parallel story in the realm of electronic medical records, in part because my son works for EPIC as a programmer.

That company is huge and very successful, in no small part because they started early and benefit from regulatory friction.
However, their software foundation is a flat database written 50 years ago called MUMPS with its own language so archaic and nasty it has to be seen to be believed. I doubt there are more than a few dozen people still proficient in its use; but for sure it has not itself been developed for a long, long time.

The user facing software is mostly written in Visual Basic, and then there are a hodgepodge of tools used by the programmers that may be decades old. They can do what others cannot, but soon enough a competitor built on a vastly superior foundation with modern tools is going to wipe them out.

NOTHING is easy at EPIC. The programmers involved in maintenance type duties remind me of the old mainframe technicians who were wiped out by personal computers and an army of Office users.

---
Regarding SAP and VW, that is like asking EPIC to take on the task of building the software for VW

Thanks for posting this. I spent a couple decades working on IBM's hospital information system product (IBM/PCSADS). The advantage we had was that we could completely modify and enhance it since it was all in COBOL and assembly (IBM abandoned this product 20 years ago rather than deal with Y2K). We also owned our own data. That is why I think Tesla may have a huge advantage over all other auto manufacturers. Are there any other auto companies that write their own systems, or do they all use externally provided products for manufacturing and for the autos?

 

[Mike Smith]

Craig Irwin of Roth Capital was on CNBC this morning claiming Shanghai is just a 'knock down' factory - that they just bolt together pre-made car kits sent in from Fremont. If he had done any research whatsoever he would know this wasn't true. In fact there's videos showing the stamping machines in action. This is the same guy who recently claimed Tesla is paying Panasonic $240/kwh for battery cells. He repeatedly makes false claims on CNBC and they keep having him back.

Wall Street plays catch up as Tesla hits new highs

 

[jbcarioca]

Right. I read that book about 30 years ago. Found like 30 copies of the Dutch edition in a bookstore that sells overstock 25 years ago, and bought 3 of them with the intention to give them away to my managers during the remainder of my career. I’m really sorry I didn’t buy all 30 copies, as I ran out of copies in only a couple of years.
BTW: the sad thing is, this is a true story, I’m not making this up.

...

The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Software Engineering, Anniversary Edition
This is in English but it is a Kindle book. I replaced my very worn-out physical one with this recently.
I was reminded of it just last week when listening to Elon and Kimbal discussing X-com, coded at night principally by Elon. This same set of principles applies to much of human endeavour, I think. In any event we know it applies to every aspect of process. I'm not a fan of committees for anything.

 

[T@oo]

Yes, and yet he is probably the most aware of legacy OEM CEO on what’s to come, which says a lot about the state of disarray in the ranks of this dying industry ..

The competition

Some time ago a German and a Japanese company arranged an annual rowing with an eight-man on the Rhine.

Both teams trained long and hard. When the day for the first race finally came, both teams presented themselves in top shape. The Japanese won the race with a lead of one kilometer.

After this disappointing defeat, the German team was very affected. Morale hit the bottom. Management immediately decided to probe the reason for the crushing defeat. A project team was set up to investigate the causes and recommend suitable measures.

After much investigation, it was found that the Japanese rowed seven people and one man steered, while in the German team one man rowed and seven steered.

Management responded promptly. A consultancy company was commissioned to prepare a qualified study on the structure of the German team with suggestions for improvement.

After a few months and considerable expense, the consultants decided that too many people were steering and too few were rowing. In addition, important legal framework conditions were not met. The consultants strongly recommended changing the team structure.

The team was therefore restructured: it now had a tax director, a tax director assistant, a female helmsman, a gender officer, an anti-discrimination officer, a foreign colored rower, an over 60-year-old rower and a disabled rower who was rowing alternated halfway with the over 60 year old rower. Whoever was not rowing had to motivate the boat with loud singing.

A modern performance evaluation system has also been introduced to encourage rowers to do more. Politically, these efforts were flanked by an increase in taxes on victory premiums for rowers with an annual income of over 70,000 euros, to be entered in the tax return in Appendix S.

The Japanese won the next year with a lead of over three kilometers.

Management dismissed the rowers for poor performance, sold the oars, and stopped investing in a new boat.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think we have a new paradigm. Thursdays day and Friday is a typical downward drift to Max Pain while Monday to Wednesday it hitches a ride on a falcon 9

Yes, until it doesn't. It's best to look at "rules" like this as coincidences. The less time an investor spends trying to make sense of micro-moves in the market, the better.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I think we have a new paradigm. Thursdays day and Friday is a typical downward drift to Max Pain while Monday to Wednesday it hitches a ride on a falcon 9

I think that's correct through the 4th qrtr ER. I am thinking there will be a new algorithm that develops after that.

Disclaimer: I have no predictive value short term.

 

[Krugerrand]

Craig Irwin of Roth Capital was on CNBC this morning claiming Shanghai is just a 'knock down' factory - that they just bolt together pre-made car kits sent in from Fremont. If he had done any research whatsoever he would know this wasn't true. In fact there's videos showing the stamping machines in action. This is the same guy who recently claimed Tesla is paying Panasonic $240/kwh for battery cells. He repeatedly makes false claims on CNBC and they keep having him back.

Wall Street plays catch up as Tesla hits new highs

Let’s not use softer wording (false claims) to take the sting out. He’s a straight up liar.

 

[dl003]

This price action is so dry
It's killing me
I'm gonna go on youtube

 

[SageBrush]

Let’s not use softer wording (false claims) to take the sting out. He’s a straight up liar.

Could be a simple case of misdirection.

The shorts paid his fare, told him he was going to a Tesla Shanghai auto factory and sent him to Detroit instead.

 

[winfield100]

VW CEO says race is on with Tesla

There are a lot of DIY, “build your own powerwall makers” probably drooling over 10,000+ ID3 VW batteries surplused,
“Barely used” that will take their Tesla’s and scoop them up Inexpensively, when VW gives up

 

[jbcarioca]

Or Korean
Although of interest both Jaguar (TATA ownership) and Audi outsourced their EV R&D to an Austrian company IIRC

My WAG is that the most blockbuster deal of the decade coming up will be purchase of RIMAC by a legacy
Here is current RIMAC ownership:

• Mate Rimac (47.7%)[1]
• Porsche (15.5%)[2]
• Camel Group (14%)[1]
• Hyundai (11%)[1]
• Kia (2.7%)[1]

I know that this seems off-topic, but I view RIMAC as one of the few true competitors to Tesla in IP.

Actually Magna-Steyr, though located in Austria is actually a Canadian company.
Magna International
They do contract assembly and component manufacturing, mostly. The I-Pace motors were, for example, designed by the same Athenians who do Tesla's. IIRC both of these vehicles were designed pretty much in-house while Magna-Steyr manufactures them. Many small-production versions of other products are built by them. I have ahd two cars built by them one a Fiat (high performance variant) and one a Peugeot (high performance convertible variant.).
That does not alter your basic point that VAG is in trouble. Their only hopes are that the Rimac infection with Porsche rubs off a bit. OTOH, Rimac does not really manufacture, clever though he is, as much as he designs and assembles. I somehow imagine that M. Rimac has a lot of N. Tesla in his DNA.

 

[Rb48888]

I am and have used all the ones referenced above
None really work for me.

Although you need a pro subscription for after hours data, I enjoy Tradingview, because it syncs your most recent timeframes, indicators and markups across all platforms.

Free would rule, but for me it's a small price to be able to leave the computer, then pick up a phone or tablet and be able to quickly reference the same settings and tools.

 

[Krugerrand]

Could be a simple case of misdirection.

The shorts paid his fare, told him he was going to a Shanghai auto factory and sent him to Detroit instead.

He’s lying regardless of being paid or not, or motivation. Liar, liar, pants of fire, lying.

 

[CatB]

I think we have a new paradigm. Thursdays day and Friday is a typical downward drift to Max Pain while Monday to Wednesday it hitches a ride on a falcon 9

Yup, I’m hoping you’re right, I want to keep accumulating, so I just made my 2020 IRA contribution, and put in a limit order just above max pain that I hope will trigger.

Thanks to Papafox, Fact Checking, Karen Rei, Curt and the other wise and generous souls who fill this forum with the best “not an advice” ever. I’m glad I stayed the course (found the courage to start buying Q1 of 2013 from the old-timers - many sorely missed - while waiting for my MS to be delivered), even though the “blind faith price target” approach was a bit too optimistic.

 

[TradingInvest]

I checked Tesla China website. US made Model 3 will be delivered in Q3. I think the current virus scare will likely to increase Tesla demand, because people want to avoid public transportation and want better air filters.

 

[larmor]

I checked Tesla China website. US made Model 3 will be delivered in Q3. I think the current virus scare will likely to increase Tesla demand, because people want to avoid public transportation and want better air filters.

I wonder if this same thinking would pull orders forward for MS and MX to China.

 

[StealthP3D]

Let’s not use softer wording (false claims) to take the sting out. He’s a straight up liar.

Yes, he is. And he was obviously very nervous and guilty as sin for the entire interview.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Volkswagen CEO Confident He Can Catch Tesla in Electric Car Race

“2020 for the auto industry will be a very difficult year,“ Diess said.

Diess 'I think we are close to follow ya uh and um uh so uh we are quite optimistic that we still can keep the pace with Tesla and uh also at some state also overtake them'
lol, could have, would have...

 

[Rb48888]

I checked Tesla China website. US made Model 3 will be delivered in Q3. I think the current virus scare will likely to increase Tesla demand, because people want to avoid public transportation and want better air filters.

Well kids, sorry, we had to cancel our Disneyland trip... but we used the money to stretch into a Tesla.