Singer3000
Member
Such posts should certainly not be deleted, it may be there is no greater threat to global macros right now.I think I got a few post deleted with regards to the Coronavirus and got a warning from the mods, but since I cannot review the deleted posts so I don't know if this is the reason my post got deleted (so mods, delete away if it is against the forumrules). But I believe this will affect the market so I am posting this.
Even though Xi came out and said that all official covering up the truth will face severe consequences. There are still high level of media censoring going on. After comparing all reported cases, video evidences and deleted weibo chats. I have concluded that this coronavirus outbreak is basically SARS on stereoids.
The quarantine and closing of the few inconsequential Chinese cities are just for show. What they need to do is actually shut down the bigger cities that have more economic impact like Beijin Macau and Hong Kong. What is probably evident on the ground (but not confirmed as this still need to be verified) is that the disease is highly contagious and super carriers exist. The virus can spread during the incubation period and are sometime not present. Yes, older people with pre-existing lung disease dies faster, but there are also reported cases of younger healthy people dying. Even if you survive, you can say goodbye to your lung as it is basically wrecked. It is not the kill rate that is scary, it is the fact that you will have to live a life with respiratory problems that is probably more scary.
The officially reported numbers are the official "counted" ones. There are many who are dying in their homes and many turned away from the hospitals because they are overwhelmed and full. People are literally dropping to the ground on the street and these are not counted. Like with any such disease, the quality of care decreases as cases overwhelm local medicare resources and death toll increases.
Then again, the other side of the spectrum is that the official Chinese stats are real and the quarantine will be effective and the death rate is only 3%.
But let's look at something else. The official stat for Chinese SARS outbreak is 10% death rate. But if you exclude all the cases for China because you suspect they hid a lot of the numbers (as their numbers count more heavily since they have more reported cases) and only count the death rate in countries outside of China who report more honest death rates. The SARS outbreak had about a 30% death rate.
