Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

Their subsequent tweet has this interesting tidbit:

"due to FW timing. Tesla seemed to have realized no matter what they do stuff leaks through firmware so froze releases on week 40 and just backported absolute necessary stuff to limit leakage And now past the new year this must be hw they put into cars now/vsoon so cannot avoid it",
green on Twitter

Feel free to help my memory but IIRC, early 2019 saw leaks regarding (Raven) upgrades to Model S/X, which caused sales of those two models to decrease drastically with Tesla dropping prices and withdrawing all but the long range variants.

So it seems that Tesla has wisened up to the fact that they should not unintentionally Osbourne their sales via firmware upgrades that contain information about yet to come products. Because it doesn't matter whether the people looking in the firmware for clues regarding new Tesla products have no intention of denying Tesla control over when they announce these new products, what matters is whether or not the information gets out to the public.

Due to regrettable circumstances even the announcement of the 100kWh battery variant of the Model S/X was leaked this way - before Tesla had a chance to announce this milestone themselves. A technically proficient Tesla enthusiast (that doesn't need to be named now) looked in a firmware upgrade and saw information about the 100 kWh badge. Wanting to be able to prove after the official announcement that they had seen the information without actually revealing it prematurely, they used a cryptographic commitment scheme(*), but forgot to add some so-called salt, allowing others to very quickly guess the hashed '100 kWh' message - after which the genie could not be put back in the bottle.

(*) Commitment scheme - Wikipedia

@lklundin
In a similar vein, the father daughter team of Tesla owners and enthusiasts noticed the early buildout of superchargers and surmised the transcontinental US route would open, took a leap of faith and successfully, I seem to recall in winter did a run from New York City to California a week before the official Tesla transcontinental run in the infancy of the supercharger network.

 

[Christine69420]

Reuters has an update on the Mercedes EQC battery situation: Production of the EQC is scaled down from 60.000 to 50.000 in 2020.

Manager Magazin said Mercedes had slashed its production target to 30,000 from about 60,000 because of a shortage of battery cells from LG Chem.

Daimler wanted to sell around 25,000 EQC vehicles in 2019, but only managed to build around 7,000 for the same reason, Manager Magazin said.

A Daimler spokesman said its production plans for 2020 had not been amended. “Daimler plans to produce around 50,000 Mercedes-Benz EQC models in 2020,” spokesman Joerg Howe said.​

Daimler had average fleet emissions of 130.4 grams of CO2 per kilometer in 2018 and needs to hit a target of 103.1 grams per km by 2021, PA Consulting has forecast.

If Daimler fails to cut its CO2 footprint, it faces a fine of 997 million euros ($1.1 billion), PA Consulting said in a report published this month.​

Source: Daimler to build 50,000 Mercedes EQC models this year

 

[CorneliusXX]

New S/X hardware imminent as per one of our fav. hacker:

green on Twitter

I wonder if they are going to harmonise the charge ports between US/EU to simplify production. Older stations would need to be retrofitted, however that didn't seem like much of an issue in the EU when the European standard was mandated.

Would there also be a need for a new charge port if plaid pack chemistry allowed higher charging speeds than currently available? not sure what the limiting factor is for the current charge port design?

 

[EVMeister]

Virus World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[SageBrush]

Are there any other auto companies that write their own systems, or do they all use externally provided products for manufacturing and for the autos?

The lion's share of the software in a Tesla is Linux, but the small fraction that remains is still a lot of code and is written in-house.

For more detailed information you will have to ask someone who actually knows what they are talking about ;-)

 

[lklundin]

Technically, none of the gasoline engine Porsches would have made it either? At least we are able to be consistent there. I don't know of any production street cars which can drive 240 km at let's say 180 km/h on average without running out of gas first.

My long gone ICE was no Porsche, but I have repeatedly driven it about 600 km at an average of 180 km/h on one tank. Once as the last leg of a 15h drive home from Edinburgh, I did the 800 km from Brussels to Munich in 4h20m (a fuel stop must have occurred, that would be included in the time). Btw, I can't recommend driving so fast over longer stretches, too often other drivers don't realize the significant speed difference, leading to very unpleasant near misses. Ironically, I wrecked my Audi A8 driving what was probably too fast, so I never had to try and sell it...

 

[KarenRei]

I wonder if they are going to harmonise the charge ports between US/EU to simplify production. Older stations would need to be retrofitted, however that didn't seem like much of an issue in the EU when the European standard was mandated.

Would there also be a need for a new charge port if plaid pack chemistry allowed higher charging speeds than currently available? not sure what the limiting factor is for the current charge port design?

It's quite possible that the current charge port wiring / cooling is insufficient for 250kW. But that's speculation.

Model S LR will be awesome for Cannonball Runs once it can do V3, and once the V3 network has spread sufficiently. The larger pack size (even if they don't increase it from 100kWh) would mean that taper from 250kW would come on later than in the 3, more than making up the difference from the S's slightly higher consumption. If the pack is increased from 100kWh.... then an even later start to taper.

It could probably do ~10 minute stops for ~155mi / 250km EPA range (~2 1/4h driving at typical US highway speeds) with little to no taper if the stop is at low SoCs (Model 3 LR AWD ~= 13 min). Depending on the pack size, maybe in the ballpark of ~260mi / 420km (~3 3/4h highway driving) in ~20 minutes (Model 3 LR AWD ~= 30 min).

The longer range also gives you a better ability to more optimally time your Supercharger stops, and less per-stop overhead.

ED: Ugh, and to think I was trying to stop myself from talking about this out of fears of Osbourning demand... :Þ

 

[KarenRei]

Speaking of "trust but verify":



So I double checked that, and I think your characterization of the WHO designation of the coronavirus is technically true but misleading.

The WHO committee said this in their decision:

Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus 2019 (n-CoV) on 23 January 2020

"Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear."

"Several members considered that it is still too early to declare a PHEIC, given its restrictive and binary nature."

"Based on these divergent views, the EC formulates the following advice:"​

The WHO declined to declare a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern" (PHEIC), but there was disagreement between the experts: some wanted to declare an emergency, some considered it "too early".

Saying that the WHO didn't declare it a threat is inaccurate and misleading, the correct characterization is:

The WHO did not declare an emergency, but publicly noted that this decision was not unanimous. Those who voted in favor of not declaring an emergency did so not because the virus's known parameters are not a threat, but because of incomplete information. The dissent/divergence was significant enough within the WHO committee to be noted in their press release.​

That still a 'no'.
That still puts it on weaker footing than zika and swine flu, which were a 'yes'.

 

[SO16]

That's honestly a good idea. I don't like the fact that this sort of stuff leaks; these sort of rumours suppress sales. I knew about Green's discoveries as soon as I read his Twitter feed, but I've avoided posting about it because I don't want to fuel the spread of such rumours.

I hope that this will be a "Oh, and (new features) are already in production" sort of thing during the call.

I just wish they’d obfuscate the code. There are utilities that can do this automatically. Then little chance of deciphering.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ever considered taking up professional poker? I hear cats can smell fear.

I played poker for a number of years, occasionally against professionals. The problem that developed, at least from my point of view, was that while the onset of online poker created a much greater interest it also negatively affected the general quality of player. IMO it became more a game of luck than skill at that point and I lost interest.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Taycan Porsche Super Bowl ad— free advertisement for Tesla...
Porsche's first Super Bowl ad since 1997 features car chase with its all-electric Taycan

LOVE IT!! An EV advertisement about the joy of driving.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thank you, sir! I will die corrected!

PS. Do you buy those gold coins hence your handle? Krugerrand - Wikipedia

My understanding is that there’s a quiz in the afterlife; I want you to be prepared.

P.S. No.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The corona virus has some relevance to this thread, as it may affect macros and thus TSLA. With an emphasis on may. But things tend to go over the top in this thread and that’s what’s happening now. So turn it down a few notches (no more medical or history lessons, or reports from the field) or it will suffer the same fate as the Brexit discussion.

 

[Unpilot]

Imma let you reflect on the wisdom of renaming the SpaceX launch system to "BFR".

I love ya man...but BFR was/is the best freaking name for a Big ****!ng Rocket!

 

[ggr]

One of the issues the other auto companies have is underfunded pension liabilities.
Does anybody know what type of pension scheme Tesla runs?
Is it the type where they make one of payments or the type where the employer has a continuous liability depending on the actuarial calculations?
(I know this is not an issue now given how young Tesla is, but this could be a problem in the long run)

SpaceX and pretty much all Silicon Valley companies offer 401k plans. I am reasonably sure that's what Tesla does too.

 

[KarenRei]

Shipping update:

* As we know, shipping got off to a somewhat late start this quarter (I believe due to refilling drawn-down store / service fleets and meeting the previously-scheduled deliveries that they failed to deliver in Q4), but it's now going at a much faster clip. Departures thusfar were the 9th, 18th, 18th, and 25th. Glovis Sigma arrives tomorrow, the 26th (leaves 28-29th?), Grand Mark arrives on the 30th, possibly followed immediately by Brooklands, as early as the 1st. Depending on when Grand Mark leaves, there will either be 5 or 6 ships having set sail in January.
* For comparison, the first month of Q4 saw "8" ships, although that's a bit misleading. One actually left on 9/30, so it was fully filled with cars made during the previous quarter, and even the one that left on 10/05 may partly have been filled with cars made in the previous quarter. All other "first months of quarters" had only 4 ships.
* First ship of the year, Morning Catherine, has arrived in Qingdao (did not stop in South Korea like expected)
* First ship to Europe, Glovis Cosmos, is expected to get to Zeebrugge around 2 Feb.
* Two additional ships are at sea. Morning Conductor is near Hawaii, heading to South Korea (expected around 5 Feb). This ship had an unusually-short loading time of 14h. Glovis Challenge just left Pier 80 and is en route to Europe. Glovis Sigma arrives tomorrow to replace it as the 5th ship of Q1.
* Glovis Cosmos or Glovis Challenge could possibly contain my car

Latest ship position maps from Julien K:
Julien K on Twitter

 

[kbM3]

If you are daily driving a 911, Cayman/Boxster, or Panamera, I strongly suspect that everyday convenience and cost advantages are the furthest thing from your mind. You hardly ever see a 911, Boxster/Cayman, or Panamera on the freeway because people don't daily drive these cars. The only Porsches I see regularly on the freeway are the SUV's. So the selling point of a Taycan has little to do with that sort of thing and more to do with it's a Porsche that happens to be an EV and that commercial hits that point on the head quite well by having it racing side by side with it's ICE siblings.

This is exactly why Porsche is marketing Taycan as a sports car, where range and advanced driver’s assist are much less important. Unfortunately no matter what they call it, Taycan is a GT Tourer for which class range and driver’s assist are very important.

I.e. Taycan = Panamera. Taycan != Cayman/Boxster/911.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Taycan Porsche Super Bowl ad— free advertisement for Tesla...
Porsche's first Super Bowl ad since 1997 features car chase with its all-electric Taycan

IMO the Porsche ad is great. It puts their electric Taycan on par with their eye candy ICE current and heritage cars. Of course we all know that Electric cars are better than ICE, but let's not digress. Porsche will have many buyers. And yes, many potential or existing Tesla owners will be inquiring about the Taycan due to this advertising, however due to higher cost and lack of usable driving range combined with lack of charging infrastructure, the Taycan will not steal a significant amount of cars from Tesla. Those who aspire to own a Porsche as a status symbol can purchase the electric variance instead of their ICE models, so they are effectively stealing from themselves. Any and all electric cars that replace an ICE car is good and we welcome Porsche and the new Taycan. Good for them.

IMO Porsche should change their tag line: "Finally an electric car that steals you. The all new Taycan". I read that and think Porche is trying to steal from you, for an inferior product. I'd change it to "Finally an electrical car that is a Porsche. The all new Taycan".

 

[KnoxEVfan]

Congrats $TSLA millionaires!

A question for you guys - I assume you are considered accredited investors now, how many of you have invested in SpaceX?

$TSLA is amazing and will be a $Tn company in 5-10 yr but I think SpaceX is going to be 10x that. Not in the same timeframe though, probably 10-20yrs later. Not sure if you guys agree with that?

I can argue with various reasonings but at the very least, indication is that Elon is more passionate about space (Mars in particular) and after acheiving the goal of Tesla in 5-10 yrs (Advancing the advent of...), he will put his energy, soul and money (what's that!?) into SpaceX.

If you have not invested in SpaceX, are there any practical/operational issues? I gather they have a private stock trading every quarter or at least annually to ensure the employees have a marketplace to sell their employee stock.

Long and Strong! HODL!

Only way to invest in SpaceX is indirectly, though index funds like ARK Invest, who do have a stake.

 

[Fred42]

Shipping update:

* As we know, shipping got off to a somewhat late start this quarter (I believe due to refilling drawn-down store / service fleets and meeting the previously-scheduled deliveries that they failed to deliver in Q4), but it's now going at a much faster clip. Departures thusfar were the 9th, 18th, 18th, and 25th. Glovis Sigma arrives tomorrow, the 26th (leaves 28-29th?), Grand Mark arrives on the 30th, possibly followed immediately by Brooklands, as early as the 1st. Depending on when Grand Mark leaves, there will either be 5 or 6 ships having set sail in January.
* For comparison, the first month of Q4 saw "8" ships, although that's a bit misleading. One actually left on 9/30, so it was fully filled with cars made during the previous quarter, and even the one that left on 10/05 may partly have been filled with cars made in the previous quarter. All other "first months of quarters" had only 4 ships.
* First ship of the year, Morning Catherine, has arrived in Qingdao (did not stop in South Korea like expected)
* First ship to Europe, Glovis Cosmos, is expected to get to Zeebrugge around 2 Feb.
* Two additional ships are at sea. Morning Conductor is near Hawaii, heading to South Korea (expected around 5 Feb). This ship had an unusually-short loading time of 14h. Glovis Challenge just left Pier 80 and is en route to Europe. Glovis Sigma arrives tomorrow to replace it as the 5th ship of Q1.
* Glovis Cosmos or Glovis Challenge could possibly contain my car

Latest ship position maps from Julien K:
Julien K on Twitter

Wouldn't your car be shipped in a container?