Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

At the current prices that would be 100 contracts that says by end of next week the SP will hit $650. BUT, for that to turn into $1M - the SP needs to hit $750 !!

The IV for 1/31 options is absolutely insane at over 110%.

It's understandable why, though. You have people who are sure that this is an epic bubble (wherein the ER will "pop it"), and you have people thinking that this ER will confirm forecasts of sustained profitability, early Model Y production, or even an unexpected early S&P criteria qualification - wherein this ER will give a highly volatile stock that keeps trying to surge even higher the footing it needs to do so.

I normally don't do "lotto tickets", but I did get a few for this ER, and will probably pick up a few more. A tiny position, though. $750-800 21 Feb '20 call spreads (by my standards, those are lotto tickets ). Over the past day or two they've been averaging around $200 each (max theoretical gain = 24x/$4800), about the same cost as $900 21 Feb '20 calls, meaning at expiry the stock would have to be $950 or more to get a better return on the $900s, if held to expiry. Picked up 3 yesterday, would like to be up to 10 or so by the ER, but it depends on how prices shift.

 

[Tslynk67]

To those playing with leverage:

I believe you should now seriously be considering the possibility of an early 2020 Asian recession caused by coronavirus and what impact this might have on your position. We are probably at a tipping point over the next month where the crisis will either quietly abate or we are looking at a serious public health emergency. I am not a public health expert but feels to me that the risk of this recession should no longer be priced as a Black Swan but something resembling a stressed base case. None of this it to say that we might be looking at very high mortality rates but it could cause a serious knock to economic confidence if the situation persists into months rather than weeks. A lot depends on whether international agencies are being given accurate information or whether things are worse than is being reported. Difficult to disentangle fact from fakenews given the typical tendencies of authoritarian governments to underplay risk versus the unsourced alarmism prevalent on social media.

To those with a buy-and-hold strategy:

Keep calm and carry on.

Don't want to downplay something that could be serious, but a lot more people contract and are killed by flu every year.

 

[sparcs]

One of the issues the other auto companies have is underfunded pension liabilities.
Does anybody know what type of pension scheme Tesla runs?
Is it the type where they make one of payments or the type where the employer has a continuous liability depending on the actuarial calculations?
(I know this is not an issue now given how young Tesla is, but this could be a problem in the long run)

corporate america has moved away from those pension plans towards 401ks. Most of what you see in the news are legacy pension plans that are crippling a lot of older companies. I think Tesla is too new of a company to have even started on those type of plans. Not an expert on it though, so someone feel free to correct me...

The Demise of the Defined-Benefit Plan

 

[UnknownSoldier]

If you go into options, do it when the SP is ridiculously oversold and buy some deep OTM's for pocket change. Then wait.

I have to admit, had I done this at $180, I would have resigned from my day job already. But hindsight is 20/20 etc.

 

[Tslynk67]

I have to admit, had I done this at $180, I would have resigned from my day job already. But hindsight is 20/20 etc.

Indeed - although I DID buy at that time, I could have bought 3x more and although not enough to retire, would have bought me a founders R2 outright for $3000.

So yeah, hindsight, but also learning to see similar patterns in the future and acting at the right time with strategy rather than impulse.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Yeah, Porsche has to walk the fine line of selling EVs while not selling EVs (i.e. selling gascars).

The everyday convenience and cost advantages of good EVs are overwhelming, so Porsche, pretty much by definition, has to undersell EVs in their commercials.

If you are daily driving a 911, Cayman/Boxster, or Panamera, I strongly suspect that everyday convenience and cost advantages are the furthest thing from your mind. You hardly ever see a 911, Boxster/Cayman, or Panamera on the freeway because people don't daily drive these cars. The only Porsches I see regularly on the freeway are the SUV's. So the selling point of a Taycan has little to do with that sort of thing and more to do with it's a Porsche that happens to be an EV and that commercial hits that point on the head quite well by having it racing side by side with it's ICE siblings.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's a bit misleading: the city border of Berlin is not far away, on the other side of the highway, beyond the small town of "Erkner", a couple of km away. Erkner is well connected to the Berlin public transportation system. Line of sight distance to the closest border section of Berlin is maybe 5 km.

It's undeveloped forests, suburbs and outskirts, but part of Berlin - it's a big city, and a substantial percentage of Berlin's population is within convenient commuting distance to GF4.

Edit: better numbers

Yeah, I know. My Great Grandfather was from Mecklenburg. But you totally missed the point: Giga Berlin has as much chance of making it into popular culture as "FSD Computer" did. Today, everyone still says HW3, inspite of Elon's tweet.

Elon may be accurate, but saying "Giga ___" is still just too nerdy (and difficult in Chinese - they say "Superfactory").

Most english speakers just say "Gigafactory ___" with some geo-reference like:

• Gigafactory Berlin,
• Gigafactory Brandenburg,
• Gigafactory Germany, or
  
• Gigafactory Europe

... and everyone will know what they mean.

Do you think Elon knows that the phrase "GIGA Berlin" is already in popular use? Yeah, that's the name of the old cold war site at the Brandenburg Gate. Even WORSE, their registered website is:

giga-hamburg.de​

POOF!

Elon's a brilliant engineer and visionary leader, but he needs to lean on his team for some help with communications...

Imma let you reflect on the wisdom of renaming the SpaceX launch system to "BFR".

Cheers!

 

[JBRR]

The officially reported numbers are the official "counted" ones. There are many who are dying in their homes and many turned away from the hospitals because they are overwhelmed and full. People are literally dropping to the ground on the street and these are not counted. Like with any such disease, the quality of care decreases as cases overwhelm local medicare resources and death toll increases.

Then again, the other side of the spectrum is that the official Chinese stats are real and the quarantine will be effective and the death rate is only 3%.

But let's look at something else. The official stat for Chinese SARS outbreak is 10% death rate. But if you exclude all the cases for China because you suspect they hid a lot of the numbers (as their numbers count more heavily since they have more reported cases) and only count the death rate in countries outside of China who report more honest death rates. The SARS outbreak had about a 30% death rate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...4ce4f94494b4_story.html?utm_source=reddit.com

"
Although Chen had all the symptoms of the coronavirus that is spreading across China and beyond, she is not counted on the official list of those who have died as a result of the infection. Her death certificate, which her family showed to The Washington Post, reads “severe pneumonia.”

But hospital staff told her stepson, Kyle Hui, that they strongly suspected she had “that” kind of pneumonia. At the crematorium, where the workers were in hazmat suits, Chen’s body was immediately incinerated without a proper farewell, and the vehicle it arrived in was disinfected.
"
There's definitely under reporting going on.

If you want an idea of how sensitive epidemics are to change in the variables, this is a good tool.

Going Critical

MODERATOR FINAL WARNING -

THIS is the sort of post that appears when a topic appears someone thinks has the slightest connection to this thread's subject matter. One person suggests a link to TSLA....and with just 3 or 4 posts removed, were talking about crematoria.

Which is exactly where further such posts will go.

 

[Sean Wagner]

...
If you want an idea of how sensitive epidemics are to change in the variables, this is a good tool.

Going Critical

That's an excellent writeup cum interactive visualizations. Thank you! Am just playing around with the tool [under "Immunity"] that combines Immunity, transmission rate, and spontaneous activation rate.

 

[mongo]

Imma let you reflect on the wisdom of renaming the SpaceX launch system to "BFR".

That was on purpose. Only Shotwell called it Big Falcon Rocket.

Elon was in Quake competitions back in the day. Quake was made by id Software as was Doom, which both featured the BFG
BFG (weapon) - Wikipedia

See also BAMF (semi presentation) tesla-semi-bamf-performance - TESLARATI

And people are still talking about it

 

[Fact Checking]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...4ce4f94494b4_story.html?utm_source=reddit.com

"
Although Chen had all the symptoms of the coronavirus that is spreading across China and beyond, she is not counted on the official list of those who have died as a result of the infection. Her death certificate, which her family showed to The Washington Post, reads “severe pneumonia.”

But hospital staff told her stepson, Kyle Hui, that they strongly suspected she had “that” kind of pneumonia. At the crematorium, where the workers were in hazmat suits, Chen’s body was immediately incinerated without a proper farewell, and the vehicle it arrived in was disinfected.
"
There's definitely under reporting going on.

If you want an idea of how sensitive epidemics are to change in the variables, this is a good tool.

Going Critical

The "Going Critical" interactive simulations are fantastic! A must-try for every TMC forum member, as it goes beyond the propagation of endemics, it also touches on the critical thresholds for new knowledge to spread within society. Knowledge about EVs would be an excellent example.

 

[Fact Checking]

Imma let you reflect on the wisdom of renaming the SpaceX launch system to "BFR".

Regarding the BFR name, IMO it was pretty obvious from early on that they'd find a new name for it, to fit into the "the Falcon has landed" meme universe. The second "Big Falcon Rocket" name was dead because everyone knew what BFR really means, and the initial "ITS" name was a bad name full stop, but "Starship" is golden - and so is "Starlink".

So give Elon some credit, he's learning.

I do think that "Gigafactory" is a shortsighted name, to be replaced with the "Terafactory" on Battery Investor Day?

The Chinese "Superfactory" is a cool name too.

 

[lklundin]

Audi announces short work at the e-tron Brussels plant calling it not demand related but parts for the marriage of the battery are missing...

Its incredible and ongoing
E-tron: Audi kündigt Kurzarbeit in Elektroauto-Fabrik an

A newspaper from Brussel claims short work is due to low demand for the e-tron entry model as customers are unhappy with short range.

So Audi is the new ... short?

 

[Sean Wagner]

Audi announces short work at the e-tron Brussels plant calling it not demand related but parts for the marriage of the battery are missing...

Its incredible and ongoing
E-tron: Audi kündigt Kurzarbeit in Elektroauto-Fabrik an

A newspaper from Brussel claims short work is due to low demand for the e-tron entry model as customers are unhappy with short range.

Very interested in the veracity of the shorter range e-tron 50 claim, as I've been wondering what the minimal exigency for the range of a "full" car in Europe might be [always presupposing decent recharging options]. That's one reason I've been watching Audi e-tron sales.

Maybe it's no coincidence they have greatly lagged in Germany, where I'd expect range to be more important than in smaller countries. See also:

NL December 2019
1 Tesla Model 3 12.113
2 Audi E-tron 3.041
3 Hyundai Kona 1.085

Germany only 3,396 for all of 2019, with no upward trend. Though the vague state of subsidies will matter too.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Tslynk67]

If you are daily driving a 911, Cayman/Boxster, or Panamera, I strongly suspect that everyday convenience and cost advantages are the furthest thing from your mind. You hardly ever see a 911, Boxster/Cayman, or Panamera on the freeway because people don't daily drive these cars. The only Porsches I see regularly on the freeway are the SUV's. So the selling point of a Taycan has little to do with that sort of thing and more to do with it's a Porsche that happens to be an EV and that commercial hits that point on the head quite well by having it racing side by side with it's ICE siblings.

Maybe not in the US, but here in Belgium you see a lot of Porsches used daily, all types, many of them looking like they haven't been washed for several months too.

 

[Singer3000]

... it is appropriate to ask what economic impact there will be from all this. All I’m saying is, don’t be surprised if global indices have their A’s handed to them in the next week or few.

Rest of post utterly off topic

 

[lklundin]

New S/X hardware imminent as per one of our fav. hacker:

green on Twitter

Their subsequent tweet has this interesting tidbit:

"due to FW timing. Tesla seemed to have realized no matter what they do stuff leaks through firmware so froze releases on week 40 and just backported absolute necessary stuff to limit leakage And now past the new year this must be hw they put into cars now/vsoon so cannot avoid it",
green on Twitter

Feel free to help my memory but IIRC, early 2019 saw leaks regarding (Raven) upgrades to Model S/X, which caused sales of those two models to decrease drastically with Tesla dropping prices and withdrawing all but the long range variants.

So it seems that Tesla has wisened up to the fact that they should not unintentionally Osbourne their sales via firmware upgrades that contain information about yet to come products. Because it doesn't matter whether the people looking in the firmware for clues regarding new Tesla products have no intention of denying Tesla control over when they announce these new products, what matters is whether or not the information gets out to the public.

Due to regrettable circumstances even the announcement of the 100kWh battery variant of the Model S/X was leaked this way - before Tesla had a chance to announce this milestone themselves. A technically proficient Tesla enthusiast (that doesn't need to be named now) looked in a firmware upgrade and saw information about the 100 kWh badge. Wanting to be able to prove after the official announcement that they had seen the information without actually revealing it prematurely, they used a cryptographic commitment scheme(*), but forgot to add some so-called salt, allowing others to very quickly guess the hashed '100 kWh' message - after which the genie could not be put back in the bottle.

(*) Commitment scheme - Wikipedia

 

[CorneliusXX]

Their subsequent tweet has this interesting tidbit:

"due to FW timing. Tesla seemed to have realized no matter what they do stuff leaks through firmware so froze releases on week 40 and just backported absolute necessary stuff to limit leakage And now past the new year this must be hw they put into cars now/vsoon so cannot avoid it",
green on Twitter

Feel free to help my memory but IIRC, early 2019 saw leaks regarding (Raven) upgrades to Model S/X, which caused sales of those two models to decrease drastically with Tesla dropping prices and withdrawing all but the long range variants.

So it seems that Tesla has wisened up to the fact that they should not unintentionally Osbourne their sales via firmware upgrades that contain information about yet to come products. Because it doesn't matter whether the people looking in the firmware for clues regarding new Tesla products have no intention of denying Tesla control over when they announce these new products, what matters is whether or not the information gets out to the public.

Due to regrettable circumstances even the announcement of the 100kWh battery variant of the Model S/X was leaked this way - before Tesla had a chance to announce this milestone themselves. A technically proficient Tesla enthusiast (that doesn't need to be named now) looked in a firmware upgrade and saw information about the 100 kWh badge. Wanting to be able to prove after the official announcement that he had seen the information without actually revealing it prematurely, he used a cryptographic commitment scheme(*), but forgot to add some so-called salt, allowing others to very quickly guess the hashed '100 kWh' message - after which the genie could not be put back in the bottle.

(*) Commitment scheme - Wikipedia

Tesla should place false leads in their firmware and reference "submarine mode", "bankruptcy mode", "terminator mode" just to get the shorts in a tizz.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla should place false leads in their firmware and reference "submarine mode", "bankruptcy mode", "terminator mode" just to get the shorts in a tizz.

That's honestly a good idea. I don't like the fact that this sort of stuff leaks; these sort of rumours suppress sales. I knew about Green's discoveries as soon as I read his Twitter feed, but I've avoided posting about it because I don't want to fuel the spread of such rumours.

I hope that this will be a "Oh, and (new features) are already in production" sort of thing during the call.