Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bhtooefr]

I wonder if they are going to harmonise the charge ports between US/EU to simplify production. Older stations would need to be retrofitted, however that didn't seem like much of an issue in the EU when the European standard was mandated.

That'd be an interesting idea, although there's some unique challenges from the US perspective.

The EU move from Type 2 DC-Mid to Type 2 CCS only affected Superchargers - for AC charging, European Teslas used the same Type 2 standard as everyone else.

Moving from the proprietary Tesla connector to either Type 1 CCS or Type 2 CCS for cars would cause major problems with the fleet of installed AC chargers, including at destination charging. You'd need to provide an adapter from the proprietary connector to either J1772 or Type 2 for those cars. Additionally, if you used Type 2 CCS, you'd still need to provide a J1772 adapter (just J1772 to Type 2, instead of J1772 to proprietary connector) for charging at unbranded public charging. (And, if you shipped Type 2 native Wall Connectors, you'd need to offer Type 2 to proprietary connector adapters for the existing fleet, or offer retrofits to Type 2 CCS (which isn't even practical on current Model S/X, unless you convert them to Type 2 DC-Mid, at which point you need three cables for a while on Superchargers).)

(I agree that the world standardizing on Type 2 CCS would be helpful, but I see the costs to Tesla being rather high to do it.)

Would there also be a need for a new charge port if plaid pack chemistry allowed higher charging speeds than currently available? not sure what the limiting factor is for the current charge port design?

There is, AFAIK, some headroom to go higher voltage in the existing connector. Going for something like 118 cells in series would get you a maximum voltage of 495.6 (within the 500 V limits), and would increase charge power by ~23% over today with no increase in current...

 

[Curt Renz]

Chicago Tribune - Yesterday: Electric vehicles are the future. Can ComEd power the revolution while keeping the lights on?

 

[SpeedGoat]

I don't know what to think. It's her words, not mine.

Well, the people who know the most about this disease are clearly very alarmed. Some of what we are seeing may reflect an abundance of caution, but this has the potential to be a big deal.

Your pharmacist's opinion really doesn't count for anything in these matters. In general this reflects a weakness in how information is shared on the internet. There are ignorant people scare mongering on one side, and ignorant people dismissing things on the other side. Neither are responsible and we should all take care not to propagate baseless rumors/opinions.

 

[PhaseWhite]

it is.

“Belt theorizes the vehicle’s drive unit overheats a sensor during low-speed driving and causes the sensor to leak current”

In this sentence he strings together the technical words together but it is verbal diarrhea. It is not relevant to how a Tesla works. It’s made up.

haha what sensors use KWs of power needed to accelerate a car?

 

[AudubonB]

This is NOT a chat group where you can post about things other than Tesla. MOST posts that could not in the slightest demonstrate more connection to this thread than the proverbial butterfly wing-flaps have been deleted. It is not that someone is insensitive to disease outbreaks; rather, it is to maintain some sense of structure to this thread.

Writing "This is off topic but..." does not exonerate.

 

[Fact Checking]

Indeed. Just curious about FCF.

I think it's fairly safe to say that the worst case per customer FSD retrofit cost is below $1,000:

• Elon said 20 minutes work time, anecdotes said 30 minutes to 3 hours depending on the VIN and model. A conservative assumption would be 2 hours work with $200 cost (labor+overhead).
• Cost of the board is lower than the nVidia board - which I'd estimate at $500 max.

This makes for about $700, which we can conservatively round up to $1,000.

Number of U.S. customers with HW2 FSD is estimated at around 50,000 - so the total worst-case FCF impact should be $50m - potentially much lower, because the service technicians are already employed and can do upgrades from Q1 "idle time", and the board cost might be lower than $500.

FCF should be stronger than this - maybe significantly stronger, so I don't think FSD retrofits will impact Q1 positive cash flow one way or another, unless Tesla decides to smooth the wave and fill inventory in this exact quarter, or there's force majeure.

(@EVNow and @FrankSG might disagree with these very coarse guesses. )

 

[StealthP3D]

New article on unintended acceleration, with a theory that's a bit of a stretch in my opinion.

The theory is beyond "a bit of a stretch", it's just plain non-sensical.

First, that "leaked current" from a sensor over-heated by the drive unit could cause exact voltages in both throttle sensors to correspond to expected values is questionable. But then the theory that since some of the pauses between throttle inputs happened in "inhumanly precise" one-second increments, it must not have been actual human input, is so laughable I don't even think the "two independent log analysts" who provided the fodder for this story even believe it themselves. They are on a mission to spread FUD and the journalist who doesn't have enough of a technical background to see the fallacy here was conned into thinking it sounded plausible. These guys really did work in the industry at one time after all.

One problem is they are apparently basing this conclusion on ONE logged event. That is an extremely small amount of data with which to draw such a conclusion. Another is that with data only recorded (archived) every tenth of a second, it's completely phony to even refer to "inhumanly precise" 1-second intervals (because the data is only being logged in 1/10th second intervals).

Finally, the "crash" was detected at 3.4 seconds into the supplied data and yet the brake application was not detected until 9 seconds, 5.6 seconds after impact? Why wasn't the brake detected during the SUA? Or right before impact?

This story is obvious FUD that may not have originated with the journalist herself, but the "experts" who fed her the story and want to harm Tesla.

 

[pz1975]

I'll probably have some disagrees, but I think that is a pretty damn good commercial, as far as commercials go. Porsche needs to transition to EVs, and like the other legacy automakers, they're in a bit of a pickle in how to do that. Here they are showing off the Toucan, whilst also showing the rest of their fantastic lineup, and everyone is having fun while chasing the bad guy (Toucan). Turns out, the bad guy is one of their own... Touché!

OK, we know Tesla doesn't need advertising (and we certainly don't want to start that discussion again), but as we also know, the other automakers do. This commercial is certainly proof of that. Anyway, well done Porsche. Now if you just would have put those advertising dollars (euros) towards improving the range and charging infrastructure of your product... well never mind. You'll get there eventually I hope.

Agree with this. Imagine all the people sitting around in groups watching the game and seeing this commercial and for the first time realizing electric cars are just as good as ICE cars (we know they are better of course) and here to stay.

In every single one of those groups, Tesla will inevitably come up in discussion. If someone has a Tesla or knows someone with one, they will educate everyone else about how much they/their friend loves their Tesla, describe its advantages to ICE cars, etc. Even if no one knows Tesla well, the commercial will still start a conversation about EVs, and Tesla will be discussed.

So either way, this multi-million dollar TV ad is a massive free advertising campaign for Tesla to the entire US.

 

[jerry33]

What's wrong with it? Just that it's ugly? Aren't the batteries a good idea for load shaving?

Compared to Tesla's batteries are elsewhere design, it lacks flexibility. You can't add more batteries if you need to increase the number of stalls. So it's not that it's wrong, just that it could be done better and will likely cause VW problems down the line. I think the point of the post was that VW as a group doesn't really believe in BEVs so their charger reflects the idea that there won't be any need for expansion.

 

[Navin]

OT. Can someone pls post a high res photo of this magazine cover suitable for printing/framing for those that want it, like me?

 

[Fact Checking]

I think this is evidence that Porsche is worried that their typical buyers won't buy an electric car. This commercial is their way of saying: "It's just as good as our old iconic (ICE) cars."

I'm with @Doggydogworld here: the Taycan's primary intent is to retain Porsche customers who'd be jumping to Tesla otherwise, but at the same time sell their ICE models to all Porsche customers who don't care. They cannot afford for their ICE customers to jump ship to EVs "too soon".

I.e. it's a fundamentally defensive move to preserve market share and customers.

Prices and capabilities are structured in a way to nudge customers toward the (presumably more profitable) ICE powertrain, but not too hard.

I believe if Tesla can roll out the Plaid Model S high end variants in time and gets some quality Nürburgring times in the spring, it might start seriously eroding Porsche's market share, as they really are not set up to deliver an answer anyime soon IMO. The Taycan took 6 years to develop, and the German OEMs are not really set up for fast iterative development.

I'd guess that in Porsche's plans Tesla was supposed to be scrambling for years to surpass the Taycan, giving Porsche enough time to transition.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I'm with @Doggydogworld here: the Taycan's primary intent is to keep Porsche customers who'd be jumping to Tesla otherwise, but sell their ICE models to all Porsche customers who don't care.

I.e. it's a fundamentally defensive move to preserve market share and customers.

Prices and capabilities are structured in a way to nudge customers toward the (presumably more profitable) ICE powertrain, but not too hard.

I believe if Tesla can roll out the Plaid Model S high end variants in time and gets some quality Nürburgring times in the spring, it might start seriously eroding Porsche's market share, as they really are not set up to deliver an answer anyime soon IMO.

I'd guess that in Porsche's plans Tesla was supposed to be scrambling for years to surpass the Taycan, giving Porsche enough time to transition.

Bloomberg article states half of Taycan customers are new to the brand. Thats pretty good in corporate speak.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Sanny]

OT. Can someone pls post a high res photo of this magazine cover suitable for printing/framing for those that want it, like me?

View attachment 504208

BTW, regardless of a title, reading a whole article left a very bad aftertaste. The author is a professional troll, used to troll Musk\Tesla and supporters, currently trolls shorts (who would be never heard outside of their cult without MSM and herself), will switch back given the first opportunity.

 

[sparcs]

A US owner stated on Twitter he drove it carefully and just partly of the time a little bid faster not even fast and ended up with 146 miles. If you do a race you may be near the 100mi range.

Wasn't Porsche insinuating that the EPA numbers don't accurately reflect the Taycan? They hired some independent company to try to claim better numbers than the EPA.

really laughable to talk about competition anymore. Tesla is going to keep moving the goal posts on everyone for most of this decade.

 

[AudubonB]

OT. Can someone pls post a high res photo of this magazine cover suitable for printing/framing for those that want it, like me?

View attachment 504208

Those of you who like that cover and live near newstands - I'd suggest buying the magazine for the cover.

 

[EinSV]

I'm with @Doggydogworld here: the Taycan's primary intent is to keep Porsche customers who'd be jumping to Tesla otherwise, but sell their ICE models to all Porsche customers who don't care.

I.e. it's a fundamentally defensive move.

Prices and capabilities are structured in a way to nudge customers toward the ICE powertrain, but not too hard.

I believe if Tesla can roll out the Plaid high end variants in time and gets some quality Nürburgring times in the spring, it might start seriously eroding Porsche's market share, as they really are not set up to deliver an answer anyime soon IMO.

Model Y is also likely to hit Porsche hard.

The Cayenne and Macan SUVs together accounted for 192K out of 281K Porsche vehicles sold worldwide in 2019 (68%).

Model Y will outperform both and offer significantly more room than the Macan but cost less (much less with comparable options), and will likely attract a large number of Porsche SUV customers.

Porsche Rakes In Record Worldwide Sales In 2019 Led By Its SUV Range | Carscoops

 

[sparcs]

Model Y is also likely to hit Porsche hard.

The Cayenne and Macan SUVs together accounted for 192K out of 281K Porsche vehicles sold worldwide in 2019 (68%).

Model Y will outperform both and offer significantly more room than the Macan but cost less (much less with comparable options), and will likely attract a large number of Porsche SUV customers.

Porsche Rakes In Record Worldwide Sales In 2019 Led By Its SUV Range | Carscoops

will Plaid Model X have an effect?

 

[Fact Checking]

Bloomberg article states half of Taycan customers are new to the brand. Thats pretty good in corporate speak.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I don't believe him for the following reasons: Porsche in the first half of 2019 proclaimed that half of their Taycan reservation holders are Tesla owners.

Then the following happened:

• Price was unveiled, and it was a shocker.
• both acceleration and speed don't beat a Raven and they barely beat a Model 3 Performance at 3x the price,
• Tesla teased the Plaid Model S, which soundly beats the Taycan in everything,
• EPA range was another shocker: 193 and 201 miles.

So I'd guess the Porsche executive is still citing those old 2019 reservation numbers, but I'd be shocked if any significant number of U.S. Tesla owners chose the Taycan just a few months before the Plaid is unveiled. At minimum they'd "wait and see".

Finally, both the "Bad Boys" Porsche infomercial movie and the Super Bowl ad suggest that Porsche needs to generate new demand for the Taycan in the U.S.

 

[StealthP3D]

I would mind owning one just for Sunday posing.

I agree. That would trouble me too. When people act like peacocks, well, let's just leave it at that!

 

[EinSV]

will Plaid Model X have an effect?

It should have an effect especially at the high end but Y is going to be a much bigger seller and my guess is that it will put a much bigger hurt on Porsche and basically all premium oems since they rely heavily on sales of SUVs that do not match up well against Model Y.

My guess is that Model Y will have similar effects on the premium brands as Model 3 but take more sales since volume will be higher, but an even bigger impact on Porsche since Porsche relies so heavily on small/medium SUVs and its only sedan (Panamera) is in a different segment than Model 3 so probably was not impacted as much by the Model 3.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?