Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

What is there exactly to talk about? [Elon] has bodyguards. He hasn’t wing walked in awhile. He travels almost exclusively by Tesla vehicles (highest safety ratings) and his private jet. Presumably he sees a Dr regularly, but clearly doesn’t sleep as much as he should or vacation enough.

It’s pretty simple; if you think he’s at a too high risk of passing and nobody else can keep Tesla going; get out.

There is one thing to talk about, IMO.

Some folks apparently fear that the premature death of Elon would mortally wound Tesla. I don't fear this, because I have seen Tesla blogs and Elon interviews explaining the corporate culture that Elon has nurtured in thousands of people at Tesla (and his other companies).

This culture includes the following principles:

1) Solve problems with scientific first-principles, not analogies to The Way Things Have Always Been Done. (Example problem: What kind of ignition key for our cars? Answer: None, because it is no longer necessary.)

2) Incentivize constant innovation and optimization. Question everything. The best component is no component. The best process is no process.

3) Communicate directly with anyone in the company required to solve problems. Don't wait for permission from managers or communicate through them.

4) Avoid "silos" or departments that don't talk to each other. Various departments must work together. Every engineer should think like a chief engineer.

5) Incentivize everyone to profit from success of the whole company, not a fiefdom within the company.

6) Avoid wasting time in meetings. If you are not needed or benefiting, leave the meeting.

7) Don't fear failure. Learn from it.

In the tragic and hopefully unlikely event of Elon's premature death, the thousands of people at Tesla will not instantly forget these principles. They will carry on using them, and teach them to new people. They have seen the extraordinary success that these principles have helped Tesla achieve, and they are not stupid. In fact, Elon is not the only genius at Tesla.

So I disagree that talk of Elon's possible death is FUD to be avoided. On the contrary, if it was common knowledge that killing Elon would not kill Tesla, this would help protect Elon... at least from rational enemies of Tesla. Those enemies are the most dangerous, because they are well-funded. Probably Elon's bodyguards can handle other types, such as crazies seeking fame or holding a grudge.

Mod: I haven't deleted this or previous posts, but speculation like this is dangerous; someone might pick it up and start a rumor. So this is the end of this discussion. --ggr

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't think next Monday would be the peak of the fear.

I actually agree with that. What I was saying is that it would likely be short-sighted to sell Tesla call options on Monday morning due to fear of Coronavirus. Because Wednesday's earnings are probably going to be a much bigger influence in the short-term vs. fear of a flu pandemic.

Does anyone remember the much-feared "swine" flu? Lasting from early 2009 to late 2010, the S&P 500 rose over 50% during the same period.

 

[Oveeus]

Sorry if this sounds noob, but I've never invested in such a volatile and yet confident stock like TSLA. Because they are usually quite mutually exclusive to each other.

My usual stock investing strategy has always been buying for value and exit when I see better opportunities elsewhere. Or sometimes sell when I see the stock is overheated (meaning I think the valuation was overhyped) and buy them back when it returns to normal and pocket the difference.

Now, I do believe that TSLA will have the chance to become a dominant tech company like FLAG with valuations in the high hundred billions if not trillions in say 5-10yrs frame.

Going all long until one-day TSLA hits 6000 is a very "all-in or nothing" strategy for me. And yet, I feel nothing even when TSLA goes up by 20% in a day as I still believe there's a lot of room to grow. I sold some shares when it popped after Q3 results, but quickly bought them back after feeling uneasy about the decision to sell, so after factoring all the costs, the transaction was pretty much neutral.

My question is, what would be the best strategy to optimize profit-taking in this long road of a very bull scenario?

 

[SageBrush]

My question is, what would be the best strategy to optimize profit-taking in this long road of a very bull scenario?

A timeship would be best, a crystal ball if you are cash strapped

 

[elasalle]

It may just be me but I feel like there has been an increasing hostility between people over the last few weeks, which seems odd given everyone should be pretty happy given what the stock did. I recall seeing some very well known and active members who contribute excellent info on a regular basis appear to be at each others throats due to differing opinions how much more the stock would go up, which unto itself seems like a ridiculous think for a bunch of bulls to be arguing about. I realize investing is serious business, but there seems to be a level of politeness missing that was the norm before. Sorry if its just me who feels that way.

People are nice to each other when all on a sinking boat loosing money Kumbayah ...

 

[Unpilot]

A timeship would be best, a crystal ball if you are cash strapped

I'm not selling mine.

 

[madodel]

Sorry if this sounds noob, but I've never invested in such a volatile and yet confident stock like TSLA. Because they are usually quite mutually exclusive to each other.

My usual stock investing strategy has always been buying for value and exit when I see better opportunities elsewhere. Or sometimes sell when I see the stock is overheated (meaning I think the valuation was overhyped) and buy them back when it returns to normal and pocket the difference.

Now, I do believe that TSLA will have the chance to become a dominant tech company like FLAG with valuations in the high hundred billions if not trillions in say 5-10yrs frame.

Going all long until one-day TSLA hits 6000 is a very "all-in or nothing" strategy for me. And yet, I feel nothing even when TSLA goes up by 20% in a day as I still believe there's a lot of room to grow. I sold some shares when it popped after Q3 results, but quickly bought them back after feeling uneasy about the decision to sell, so after factoring all the costs, the transaction was pretty much neutral.

My question is, what would be the best strategy to optimize profit-taking in this long road of a very bull scenario?

Don't invest any more than you can afford to lose. Don't use margin unless you really love to live dangerously. Have at least a 5 year investment range. This puppy/kitty should eventually multiply your investment 10x but it is a roller coaster and can be terrifying. I always liken it to AAPL and it is scary that now that things are really starting to hum along people are now talking about Elon being irreplaceable which was one of the last manipulation points by the bears for AAPL so many years ago. AAPL survived and continued to thrive when Jobs finally died. Musk has way too much on his plate to give up anytime soon. I'm sure someone will now call me a complete idiot who doesn't have a clue so take it for what it cost.

 

[Fact Checking]

My question is, what would be the best strategy to optimize profit-taking in this long road of a very bull scenario?

Split your shares into "core" and "trading" shares, try to time the market with your trading shares, frequently review how good you are at it and adjust the split depending on it.

Alternatively, if you have at least 100 trading shares you could write covered calls against your trading shares and write covered puts for any excess cash, to earn the premium.

Finally you can buy protective puts whenever you think the stock has overheated.

Not advice.

 

[Opus BC fan]

If there is a significant dip tomorrow I will be forced to buy some additional shares...
I may not have Unpilot's crystal ball, but I have read this book and know how the story ends...

 

[Oveeus]

A timeship would be best, a crystal ball if you are cash strapped

I'm not exactly cash strapped, but let's say that I'm quite confident that it will reach 6000, but it can be 5yrs to 10yrs getting there. And by simply keeping the stock there for the maximum payout, I'm taking the whole opportunity cost plus 100% of the risks.

So, to rephrase my question, is there any strategy that I can use during my expected ups and downs (say I'm confident that after the Q4 report, the stock will shoot up 20%, and next Q1, it'd do only ok and drops 10%) and ride my way to $6000? I won't be able to maximize my profit... I know, but I'd take that as costs to take (relatively) less risks and opportunity cost for it to reach 6000.

Things I can think off are buying options for relative length at a certain time frame (say every year or every Q) and sell/buy my shares and use those options as hedge to my profit taking while not deviating much (in term of total share on hand) in the long term

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone remember the much-feared "swine" flu? Lasting from early 2009 to late 2010, the S&P 500 rose over 50% during the same period.

Yeah, back in 2009 AJ wasn't short Pork Bellies.

 

[PhaseWhite]

And how many face masks are available in the US ?
In China everybody already had one or more from previous viruses.

Personally I have a box of N95's from back in 2013.
Recommend everyone buy at least one or two. They could sell out fast. Home Depot has them.

If its only a 2% chance of becoming serious a $10 investment is worth it.

Seems Amazon is all out of stock...

 

[AZRI11]

Yeah, back in 2009 AJ wasn't short Pork Bellies.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Seems Amazon is all out of stock...

Should be plenty at the local Home Depot. They are used for painting and sanding so go look at the paint department.

 

[StealthP3D]

View attachment 504640


Inovio’s stock soars after receiving grant to develop coronavirus vaccine

Kim said after the DNA sequence of the new coronavirus strain was made publicly available on Jan. 11, Inovio was able to design and construct a potential vaccine in “a matter of hours,” and the animal-testing process has already begun.

Interestingly enough, the largest ETF holder of Inovio is Kathie Woods ARK Genomic Revolution, ARKG:

The largest ETF holder of INO is the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG), with approximately 4.62M shares. Investors may also find of interest that the ETF with the largest allocation to INO stock is ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG), with a portfolio weight of 3.52%. On average, U.S. ETFs allocate 0.19% of INO to their portfolios.

In the off-chance that the recent breakthroughs in the speed of genetic sequencing result in a rapid end to the Coronavirus threat, this could supercharge the bull market in general and put another feather in the cap of the brainiacs at ARK Investments. Never under-estimate the ability of the markets to find reasons to juice to unimaginable highs. Also, the ability of the markets to carry on longer than you thought possible. I'm not naturally an irrationally bullish person but I also don't put my head in the sand and constantly claim the sky is falling. I just call it how I see it.

In any case, I see no convincing signs that the current bull market is running out of steam. This is the direct result of the combination of low interest rates, relatively low inflation and the inequality of most of the profits flowing to the top 5%. Because when profits are concentrated in the hands of those who have more than they need, they get re-invested in the economy. In other words, a lot of money is chasing productive assets and I don't believe that's about to end. The money absolutely needs a place to go that is better than current low-interest rates.

The Coronavirus is most likely just a comma in the middle of it all.

 

[Remus]

I actually agree with that. What I was saying is that it would likely be short-sighted to sell Tesla call options on Monday morning due to fear of Coronavirus. Because Wednesday's earnings are probably going to be a much bigger influence in the short-term vs. fear of a flu pandemic.

Does anyone remember the much-feared "swine" flu? Lasting from early 2009 to late 2010, the S&P 500 rose over 50% during the same period.

They are not in the same scale!!

Apparently only a few people with strong China connections understand the severity of the problem. Fact check seems to be an exception.

Wake up people! Have you ever seen locking down of a big city other than in movies like "I am legend?!" Put yourself in their shoes. What would you do if your city is locked down, surrounded by military? It's a city size of London.

This is a natural disaster exacerbated by the stupidity of a totalitarian government. Now the high up people are pointing fingers from the very top. So expect overcorrections and extreme measures.

There's no doubt in my mind that they gonna prevent people from going into Beijing and Shanghai for weeks or longer. Consider GF3 production impact a given fact. And there are maybe other negative effects. Sure all manufacturer activity and the entire economy would be impacted.

I am sure Robin can tell Elon how bad things can be and they can get the best out of it, hit the ground running once things go back to normal. But I don't think people understand how bad things can get in the short term. The good thing about shares is that they don't have maturity date.

 

[Ameliorate]

Interestingly enough, the largest ETF holder of Inovio is Kathie Woods ARK Genomic Revolution, ARKG:

The largest ETF holder of INO is the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG), with approximately 4.62M shares. Investors may also find of interest that the ETF with the largest allocation to INO stock is ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG), with a portfolio weight of 3.52%. On average, U.S. ETFs allocate 0.19% of INO to their portfolios.

In the off-chance that the recent breakthroughs in the speed of genetic sequencing result in a rapid end to the Coronavirus threat, this could supercharge the bull market in general and put another feather in the cap of the brainiacs at ARK Investments. Never under-estimate the ability of the markets to find reasons to juice to unimaginable highs. Also, the ability of the markets to carry on longer than you thought possible. I'm not naturally an irrationally bullish person but I also don't put my head in the sand and constantly claim the sky is falling. I just call it how I see it.

In any case, I see no convincing signs that the current bull market is running out of steam. This is the direct result of the combination of low interest rates, relatively low inflation and the inequality of most of the profits flowing to the top 5%. Because when profits are concentrated in the hands of those who have more than they need, they get re-invested in the economy. In other words, a lot of money is chasing productive assets and I don't believe that's about to end. The money absolutely needs a place to go that is better than current low-interest rates.

The Coronavirus is most likely just a comma in the middle of it all.

Well, as concerning as this can be to witness, @StealthP3D may have a point....
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

 

[MC3OZ]

They are not in the same scale!!

Apparently only a few people with strong China connections understand the severity of the problem. Fact check seems to be an exception.

Wake up people! Have you ever seen locking down of a big city other than in movies like "I am legend?!" Put yourself in their shoes. What would you do if your city is locked down, surrounded by military? It's a city size of London.

This is a natural disaster exacerbated by the stupidity of a totalitarian government. Now the high up people are pointing fingers from the very top. So expect overcorrections and extreme measures.

There's no doubt in my mind that they gonna prevent people from going into Beijing and Shanghai for weeks or longer. Consider GF3 production impact a given fact. And there are maybe other negative effects. Sure all manufacturer activity and the entire economy would be impacted.

I am sure Robin can tell Elon how bad things can be and they can get the best out of it, hit the ground running once things go back to normal. But I don't think people understand how bad things can get in the short term. The good thing about shares is that they don't have maturity date.

The Chinese government response seems sensible to me, they are trying to slow down the spread of the virus until more is known....

The best chance of reducing the impact is keeping it contained (or slowing the spread), while people work on diagnosis, cure, and a vaccine...

We don't know if there is any impact on GF3, but if there is it isn't a long term impact, unless the virus is far worse than anything we have experienced previously.

My hunch is most of the Chinese people know the government is implemented these restrictions for good reason and they know the restrictions will only last as long as they are needed...

There might be a short term drop of global stock markets, typically that happens and if it is based on anything fundamental it quickly reverses. So far, I am not seeing strong evidence this is fundamental or long lasting, but equally it is true humanity is on a steep learning curve here..

 

[Rb48888]

I'm not exactly cash strapped, but let's say that I'm quite confident that it will reach 6000, but it can be 5yrs to 10yrs getting there. And by simply keeping the stock there for the maximum payout, I'm taking the whole opportunity cost plus 100% of the risks.

So, to rephrase my question, is there any strategy that I can use during my expected ups and downs (say I'm confident that after the Q4 report, the stock will shoot up 20%, and next Q1, it'd do only ok and drops 10%) and ride my way to $6000? I won't be able to maximize my profit... I know, but I'd take that as costs to take (relatively) less risks and opportunity cost for it to reach 6000.

Things I can think off are buying options for relative length at a certain time frame (say every year or every Q) and sell/buy my shares and use those options as hedge to my profit taking while not deviating much (in term of total share on hand) in the long term

Respectfully, you may benefit from re-reading @Fact Checking ’s response to your question above.

Split your shares into "core" and "trading" shares, try to time the market with your trading shares, frequently review how good you are at it and adjust the split depending on it.

Alternatively, if you have at least 100 trading shares you could write covered calls against your trading shares and write covered puts for any excess cash, to earn the premium.

Finally you can buy protective puts whenever you think the stock has overheated.

Not advice.

It’s all in there.

Many here have shared your confidence in trading upcoming events, but be aware that even when you’re 100% right, TSLA often has TEMPORARY outsized reactions to unexpected events that seem to occur at the worst possible times.

Due to the short-term uncertainty, buy-and-hold works well for many here, while there are very few who have had long-term success trading large portions of their portfolios against upcoming Tesla events.

That said, maintaining an adjustable split of core holdings and trading shares, along with learning how to use the simple options strategies Fact mentioned above, would provide you with a great basic tool kit. It’s in line what you are asking for, and adjustable to your preferred confidence level and desired risk/reward as we work our way to $6000 and beyond.

Since your core shares are in it for the long term, you can experiment with small amounts, and you have lots of time to learn which strategies will work best for you.

also, not advice.

 

[Singuy]

They are not in the same scale!!

Apparently only a few people with strong China connections understand the severity of the problem. Fact check seems to be an exception.

Wake up people! Have you ever seen locking down of a big city other than in movies like "I am legend?!" Put yourself in their shoes. What would you do if your city is locked down, surrounded by military? It's a city size of London.

This is a natural disaster exacerbated by the stupidity of a totalitarian government. Now the high up people are pointing fingers from the very top. So expect overcorrections and extreme measures.

There's no doubt in my mind that they gonna prevent people from going into Beijing and Shanghai for weeks or longer. Consider GF3 production impact a given fact. And there are maybe other negative effects. Sure all manufacturer activity and the entire economy would be impacted.

I am sure Robin can tell Elon how bad things can be and they can get the best out of it, hit the ground running once things go back to normal. But I don't think people understand how bad things can get in the short term. The good thing about shares is that they don't have maturity date.

Considering the Chinese government turned off power plants during the Beijing Olympics just to have clear blue skies for the world to see, shutting down a city is like meh in the scale of importance and you are reading way too much into this. The government trying to contain a potential serious illness but you are here spreading fear like this is the movie "outbreak". Calm yourself. So far the mortality rate is 4% from a country that doesn't even have ample supply of anti virals AND the Chinese people see a doctor when they are potentially dying because that's our culture. So consider these biases before making your assessments.



Disclaimer: I am Chinese and a health care professional.